American Politics XII: We Can Do Bad All By Ourselves

[Kowani]

Oz lead falls to 624

[Shrillland]

Oz lead falls to 624

Gone up to 988.

[American Legionaries]

Steve Irwin?

No, not that one. This one's Chair of the US Civil Rights Commission's Pennsylvania office, he also used to be a major figure in state adminstration. Lee, on the other hand, is a fairly popular Commonwealth Rep.

But what is his position on stingrays?

[Prima Scriptura]

Also Mastriano being PA governor candidate is not...great

This may be beneficial to the Democrats

[Shrillland]

No, not that one. This one's Chair of the US Civil Rights Commission's Pennsylvania office, he also used to be a major figure in state adminstration. Lee, on the other hand, is a fairly popular Commonwealth Rep.

But what is his position on stingrays?

As far away from his heart as possible.

[Kowani]

also I realize I didn’t mention this earlier but the trump-endorsed Idaho gubernatorial candidate who lost tonight was a far-right wackjob who was censured by the state legislature after she doxxed a 19-year old intern who accused another legislator of raping her (he got convicted)

[San Lumen]

also I realize I didn’t mention this earlier but the trump-endorsed Idaho gubernatorial candidate who lost tonight was a far-right wackjob who was censured by the state legislature after she doxxed a 19-year old intern who accused another legislator of raping her (he got convicted)

No that’s Priscilla Giddings a candidate for Lieutenant Governor who seems likely to lose as well tonight

[Prima Scriptura]

Quite honestly, Barnette may have played as a spoiler.

[San Lumen]

Also Mastriano being PA governor candidate is not...great

I wouldn’t rule out an upset but Shapiro is the favorite in this election.

[Kowani]

also I realize I didn’t mention this earlier but the trump-endorsed Idaho gubernatorial candidate who lost tonight was a far-right wackjob who was censured by the state legislature after she doxxed a 19-year old intern who accused another legislator of raping her (he got convicted)

No that’s Priscilla Giddings a candidate for Lieutenant Governor who seems likely to lose as well tonight

right, yes, forgot the “lt.”

mcgeachin is still completely unhinged, mind

[Corrian]

Also Mastriano being PA governor candidate is not...great

This may be beneficial to the Democrats

Probably, but if its not, we have an insurrectionist in charge of a swing state.

[Shrillland]

Another call:

GOP OR-Senate: Jo Rae Perkins

Just two to go.

[San Lumen]

No that’s Priscilla Giddings a candidate for Lieutenant Governor who seems likely to lose as well tonight

right, yes, forgot the “lt.”

mcgeachin is still completely unhinged, mind

Yes and I’m glad she got trounced. This is a woman who while serving as acting Governor took it upon herself to start repealing executive orders and issuing ones of her own. She is far right conspiracy theorist nut job who belongs nowhere near any elected office.

[Shrillland]

Pennsylvania's length, I can understand, Oregon though, I'm wondering why the hell Clackamas County is holding up the show.

[San Lumen]

Another call:

GOP OR-Senate: Jo Rae Perkins

Just two to go.

Good thing this QAnon conspiracy theorist has no chance in the fall. She got trounced in 2020.

[Umeria]

Not quite, there's one more to make, one where I was wrong and reports of the Progressive Movement's death have been exaggerated:

Dem PA-12(Pittsburgh): Summer Lee

A race that no one was watching became a big Democratic surprise.

Excellent news.

[Shrillland]

Oz's lead is widening, now at 2,840.

[Thermodolia]

Oz's lead is widening, now at 2,840.

A .2% lead. Needs .6% to avoid an automatic recount

[Shrillland]

Oz's lead is widening, now at 2,840.

A .2% lead. Needs .6% to avoid an automatic recount

We probably won't know it tonight....

[Antipatros]

Yoooo I didn't expect Madison Cawthorn to actually lose reelection.

Good riddance lol. One of the worst people in Congress.

[Corrian]

If the Oregon democratic governor candidate wins, she'll be the first openly lesbian governor in US history.

[Corrian]

Dude, even though I think any of them have a chance because its a swing state, Republicans really are picking all the WORST candidates they possibly can and Democrats are picking all the BEST candidates they possibly can for themselves in PA right now. Republicans have to be beating their heads against their desks tonight.

[Shrillland]

It's now late, and our two remaining races are inconclusive tonight, so it's about time I get things together for our next matches of the week. Three state primaries, one state runoff round, and a byelection primary that keeps this from being an exclusively Southern affair. Here's my take on next week.

Alabama: First, longtime Republican Senator Richard Shelby is retiring, and the seat's open. Shelby's own choice is his former Chief of Staff Katie Britt, who's also a former CEO of the Business Council of Alabama. She's also backed by Lindsey Graham, Joni Ernst, most of the State Party, Associated Builders and Contractors, the National Wildlife Federation, most state employers and business groups, and Maggie's List. For a while, it looked like her main competition would be Congressman Mo Brooks, especially after Trump endorsed him in last April. He, however, withdrew his endorsement in March of this year as Brooks didn't agree with some of the fraud allegations regarding 2020. Consequently, Brooks saw his poll numbers drop as most of Trump's surrogates backed Mike Durant, a former POW who was also the sole survivor of the eponymous helicopter in the 1993 Black Hawk Down incident. Ironically, Lincoln Project co-founder Rick Wilson is also backing Durant, as are Ted Nugent, Michael Flynn, and Combat Veterans for Congress. Brooks still has some support from Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Jim Jordan, Marjorie Taylor Greene, the NRA, Eagle Forum, FreedomWorks, the Club for Growth, and the Senate Conservatives Fund. There won't be an outright winner, and I think it'll be Britt and Durant going to the June 21 runoff. I can't say for sure where the Brooks voters will go or if Trump will change the race, but I do know that whomever wins there will win against Will Boyd in November.

On to the Governor's race, and Trump's gubernatorial weakness in the GOP Primaries once again appears. Although he's endorsing former Ambassador to Slovenia(not incidentally, his wife's original home country) Lynda Blanchard, as is the American Conservative Union, the most popular runner by far is incumbent Kay Ivey. Ivey's backed by most of the state party, a lot of mayors, the NRA, the National Right to Life Association, the Susan B. Anthony List, and the Business Council of Alabama among others. Another possible contender is Tim James, a son of the former Governor Fob James, and himself a developer of toll bridges across the Gulf Coast who's also run twice for Governor before. James also has the Coal Miners PAC, former state party Chair Bill Armistead, and the American Family Association. It's possible that Ivey will avoid a runoff, though if she doesn't, I think, given the polls, that James is more likely than Blanchard to be her June 21 opponent. Ivey will win there and beat Malika Sanders-Fortier in November(Sanders-Fortier will herself face a runoff against Yolanda Flowers, but the recent SCOTUS leak has changed internal party dynamics, and pro-life Democrats are less palatable, as we will see later).

Now for the Secretary of State. Incumbent Republican John Merrill is term-bound, and there is a contentious race. The Trumpists are behind State Auditor Jim Zeigler, including Mike Lindell, the Common Sense Campaign PAC, and the America First Secretary of State Coalition. Most of the mainstream party, however, is backing State Rep. Wes Allen, including the Alabama Farmers Federation, Alabama Citizens for Life, and Coastal 150 among others. I think this will also go to a runoff, but Zeigler will have no trouble winning if more Trumpists start pushing for him. Come November, he'll easily beat prison guard Pamela Lafitte.

Next stop, the House and Huntsville(5th). This was Mo Brooks' seat, and Brooks left for his Senate campaign. At this point, the Republicans may be able to avoid a runoff, but if they don't, one definite finalist is Madison County Commission Chairman Dale Strong. He's backed by the Alabama Farmers Federation, the Fraternal Order of Police, and the Professional Fire Fighters of Alabama. His most likely opponent in June would be, as I see it, former Huntsville City Schools Superintendent and Assistant Army Secretary under Trump, Casey Wardynski. He has the House Freedom Fund, Jim Jordan, and Michael Flynn behind him. Either here or in June, Strong will win and handily beat Kathy Warner-Stanton in November.

And don't forget, there's a ballot initiative, too. Here's the Plaza entry on Amendment 1: Our first Amendment 1 comes on May 24. This would amend the state constitution to issue $85 million in bonds to improve, renovate, and otherwise maintain all state parks($80 million) and state historical monuments and sites($5 million). All of them, that is, except for the Confederate Memorital Park in Marbury, which was specifically excepted for obvious reasons.

Arkansas: Relatively quiet, no House races of interest, though the Senate race is surprising lively. Incumbent John Boozman has Trump's backing, but his opponents claim that Boozman's accepting the 2020 results make him less-than-loyal, so the polls show a possible NOM result and a June 21 runoff. Besides Trump, Boozman's supported by Mitch McConnell, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, National Right to Life, and Pro-Israel America. Some more extreme Conservatives are backing Jan Morgan, the infamous Hot Springs gun range owner who proudly called her space "Muslim-free", including Michael Flynn and Ted Nugent. Others, including Burgess Owens and Madison Cawthorn(he may have lost, but he still carries weight among the ultra-Right), are backing former Defensive End for the Patriots Jake Bequette. Either here or in June, Boozman will win and do so again in November.

On to the Governor's race. Also fairly quiet, as soon as Sarah Huckabee Sanders announced she would follow in her father, Mike Huckabee's footsteps, any serious competition bowed out. She'll easily win here and against former Arkansas Regional Innovation Hub Executive Director Chris Jones come November.

As for the Secretary of State, Incumbent Republican John Thurston has both races in the bag.

Georgia: The week's main event, and for good reason. Primary-wise, no fireworks in the Senate race, Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker will handily win their Primaries. Come November, however, it's a different story. A lot of factors from Georgia's changing dynamics to the fairly glum attitude of the public towards Biden have to be considered, but barring a quick end to our high inflation, I think the polls have it right at the moment and that Walker can take the seat for the Republicans. Still, it's a long road to November, and anything can happen.

On to the Governor's race, quite lively next week. On the Republican side, Trump is yet again backing a likely loser in former Senator David Perdue, who's also backed by former State Rep. Vernon Jones. The likely winner is the incumbent Brian Kemp, backed by Mike Pence, George Bush the Younger, Chris Christie, most of the state party, and the Republican Governors Association. On the Democratic side, Stacey Abrams is going for Round Two with no serious competition. Kemp and Abrams will go to their rematch, and polls right now show a repeat of 2018 with Abrams losing by 4-6 points to Kemp. On the other hand, many polls don't have Kemp crossing the all-important 50%+1 threshold to avoid a runoff in the General, which could change the game entirely.

Next, the Secretary of State's contest. Incumbent Republican Brad Raffensperger is fighting for his political life thanks to his refusal to help Trump out in 2020. The post is as up for grabs as the other statewide races, and on the Republican side, Raffensperger is mostly facing off against Congressman Jody Hice, who's backed by Trump, Matt Gaetz, and Marjorie Taylor Greene(who faces no serious competition in her Dalton-Rome Primary). Polls show that Raffensperger and Hice will go to the June 21 runoff, and from there I think Raffensperger can pull off a close race, though I won't bet on it yet. On the Democratic side, it's arguably even more chaotic. Polls show all five contenders with fairly equal support. The current leader is Stacey Abrams's State House successor, Bee Nguyen, who's backed by People for The American Way, End Citizens United PAC, and a bunch of area legislators. Second, there's Michael Owens, former Cobb County Party Chair with the support of Former Governor Roy Barnes and the Collective Pac. Third, there's former State Rep. Dee Dawkins-Haigler, followed by former State Senator Floyd Griffin and Former Fulton County Commission Chair John Eaves. Given the endorements, I think it'll be Owens and Nguyen going to the runoff with Owens possibly edging it out. Come November, your guess is as good as mine.

Onto the House. Despite what Ballotpedia says, there are more interesting races than just one. First stop, Roswell-Alpharetta(6th). Before redistricting, a lot of it belongs to the bluer district of Alpharetta-Dunwoody, but it's been redrawn into a safe R +12 seat. Even so, it is somewhat competitive, and it may be Trump's first legislative loss. He's backing Jake Evans, the former chair of the Georgia Ethics Commission and the son of Randy Evans, Trump's Ambassador to Luxembourg. He's also backed by Bob Barr and Newt Gingrich. Polling's spotty and most of it's backed by a competitor, but that competitor, 2020 contender Rich McCormick, is leading in the polls. He's backed by Ted Cruz, Ronny Jackson, Burgess Owens, Turning Point USA, Club for Growth, and SEAL PAC. Finally, former State Rep. Megan Hanson is backed by Elise Stefanik and some state legislators. Right now, it looks like it'll go to a runoff between Evans and McCormick, and I can't yet say who'll win. Whoever it is will easily win come November, however.

Next, Johns Creek-Duluth(7th). It's a battle of Incumbents as Carolyn Bourdeaux is running against Lucy McBath, formerly of Alpharetta-Dunwoody....which is now the far redder district of Roswell-Alpharetta(see above). A lot of groups are actually endorsing both candidates such as Planned Parenthood, NARAL Pro-Choice America, End Citizens United, and Let America Vote. Progressives are more behind McBath, including Elizabeth Warren, Ayanna Pressley, and even some mainstream leaders like Jim Clyburn. Both will go to the runoff, and McBath's expected to win that and in November.

Over to Athens(10th), Jody Hice's old district. Hice is backing State Rep. Timothy Barr, as are Bob Good, Louie Gohmert, and Stand for Health Freedom among others. Trump, meanwhile, is backing former State Rep. and former Dekalb County CEO Vernon Jones. Jones has had a continuous problem of allegations of sexual harassment, sexist comments, and even one accusation of rape that ultimately fizzled out. Even so, Jones is also being supported by Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, Michael Flynn, and very little of the electorate. The actual front runner among Republicans by far is Trucking Executive Mike Collins, son of former Congressman Mac Collins. He has little backing, just from the American Populist Union, but he's doing well in polls and the money race. Finally, there's former Congressman Paul Broun, backed by Former Governor Nathan Deal. It looks like Collins and Broun go to the runoff, and I think Collins will win it and November.

Minnesota: Yes, Minnesota has a by-primary for the House district of Rochester-Mankato(1st). The Republican Incumbent, Jim Hagedorn, died of kidney cancer in February as you may recall, so the byelection will be in August. This is just the primary. The district is R+8, but Democrats are fighting for an outside win. First, the Republicans have Hagedorn's widow, former State Party Chair Jennifer Carnahan. Although Carnahan's competitive and leading in the polls, the party wings are backing other candidates for the most part. The more Conservative section is backing State Rep. Jeremy Munson, including Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, FreedomWorks, and Jim Jordan. Moderates and a lot of state party figures are backing former State Rep. and State USDA Rural Development Director Brad Finstad, including fellow Minnesota Congressfolk Michelle Fischbach and Pete Stauber. He's also backed by former Target CEO Bob Ulrich, Koch Industries Pac, and the Republican Main Street Partnership. On the Democratic-Farmer-Labor side, the party's behind former Hormel CEO Jeffrey Ettinger. Dissident Republican Richard Painter is also running in this primary. Right now, I think it'll be Carnahan and Ettinger winning their primaries, and Carnahan winning in August.

Texas(Part Two): A lot of races went to runoffs back on March 1, including the Attorney General's race, but that's not my field. Here, my subject is the House races, so we'll go through them and see if my views have changed on who'll win. First, we go back to McAllen-Seguin(15th). When we last left the Democratic race, I got one of the contenders right, Michelle Vallejo won a spot, as did Ruben Ramirez. I also said Vallejo would win a runoff, and polls, even those commissioned by Ramirez, are now saying the same thing. Elizabeth Warren, the Working Families Party, and Pramila Jayapal have added their endorsements to Vallejo just as Ramirez now has Democratic Majority for Israel and Blue Dog PAC as well as most of his border Democratic compatriots in the House. Still, my views haven't changed, Vallejo will win next week and lose to Monica De La Cruz in November.

On to San Antonio East Central-Laredo(28th). Here the Democratic race has been upended by the leaked preliminary SCOTUS decision on Dobbs v. Jackson. Suddenly, Democrats have become more hostile to the pro-life members of their party, especially in states like Texas where abortion is soon to be banned. Henry Cuellar's initially easy repeat victory is now considerably less certain, especially as the third primary candidate, Tannya Benavides, is now backing Jessica Cisneros, giving as her direct reason Cisneros' pro-choice stance. It wouldn't take too much of a shift in the border counties or areas close to it to change the race, and many Progressives have become impatient with the national party's insistence on supporting Cuellar anyway. If the leak hadn't happened, I'd say Cuellar would win again as I did in March, but now I think Cisneros can pull it off needing only to tweak the numbers slightly. On the other hand, a Cisneros victory here means a somewhat better shot for Republican Cassy Garcia(although she also has a runoff, I think she'll win it). Now the November picture is foggier, and I can't let say who'll win if Cisneros does.

Next, Dallas Central and South(30th). I was wrong about the Democratic primary, Jasmine Crockett did not win outright. Even so, it was close enough to the threshold that she will win here and she'll carry this safe Blue seat in November.

[Shrillland]

And we now know what went wrong in Clackamas County, which I should've read earlier: A printing error meant that a lot of ballots had defective barcodes rendering them unreadable by the voting machines

So a lot of those votes have to be transferred to new ballots by hand before they can be counted.

[Kannap]

Pretty sure the party sunk him after the sex orgies comment.

No, they'd sunk him months before, the video is what pushed the common voters over the edge. Remember, Asheville itself may be Sapphire Blue, but the region's also where Billy Graham got his start.

Bears remembering for outsiders that, while our big cities are solidly blue, Republicans do control our legislature. One state Senator a few years back called Asheville the "cesspool of sin".