Ukrainian War Thread III: The Horrors

[Adamede]

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That feeling when Israel says the Human Rights Council is such a venerable and important institution Russia shouldn't be allowed on it.

I mean just Israel? Lets not act like global geopolitics has ever been built on morals.

[Post War America]

You are insisting that we dramatically increase risk the extinction for humanity and virtually every other multicellular lifeform on the surface of the planet. Against that math there are very few things that are worthy. The ugly truth of war in the atomic age is that every single war involving a nuclear power risks those weapons being used. The risk escalates dramatically when two nuclear powers are fighting each other. You are functionally calling for 4/5ths of the worlds official nuclear powers bearing 94% of the world's known nuclear arsenal to be fighting each other so that Ukraine can be a puppet of the West instead of a Puppet of Russia, and make no mistake direct NATO intervention will come with plenty of strings. Even your in your "compromise" you still want that war.

So to bring us to the gotcha question reversal:
How many millions need to burn in atomic fires to satiate your bloodlust? How many billions must die slow and horrifying deaths to radiation poisoning?

Why are you accusing me of bloodlust, for wanting to end rather than indefinitely prolong an extremely brutal war?
If you resort to such ad hominems, accusing me of just wanting to see people die for the lols, I will not continue. But I see I hit a nerve. Because you realize that yes we are fighting only to the last Ukrainian. Requiring them to die so we can hide behind them. Like the cowards we are being.

No, I'm accusing you of being a fucking war hawk living in the deluded fantasy that fighting in Ukraine will somehow be anything like Desert Storm instead of a bloodbath under the best of circumstances and a nuclear exchange unless... somehow no further escalations occur.

I do not want to start wars, the war is already raging. I just want to bring it to an end.
I would much prefer Russia simply stop its attacks. But they are obviously not going to do that. The question is how we get them to stop. How we increase our leverage in negotiations enough to bring about a reasonable end.

No, instead you just want to dramatically escalate it, such a big improvement.

I do not believe Russia is willing to see as much of the world burn as they can, just to avoid defeat in Ukraine.
And the more we allow them to get away with things by assuming their nuclear weapons are a first response, rather than a last resort, the more die.

Nobody has to die in nuclear war because it would not plausibly happen. Russia is not suicidal.
Using nuclear weapons would not benefit Russia here.

Sure, as long as the only thing at stake is Ukraine. But you're outright delusional if you think NATO declaring war on Russia is anywhere near likely to see anything other than the spread of the fighting. The only reason Russia hasn't already redeployed the bulk of its army to fight in Ukraine is explicitly because they want to remain prepared for a general conflict with NATO. And this of course assumes that increasing the military presence in Ukraine isn't inherently going to get more Ukrainians killed.

Iraq could have fired chemical weapons to just kill a lot of people. Put chemical weapons on the missiles they used. They did not. Because deterrence actually greatly limits escalation from conventional to WMD use.
It would have gained them nothing to escalate a war to WMDs as they would still lose.

Saddam could live another decade by NOT using such weapons. And using them would have likely meant his death.
So he decided to live. Putin would do the same.

Pointless drivel. Russia stands to gain a lot more tactically from using nuclear weapons in a general war against NATO that Iraq did using chemical weapons against the coalition. Doubly so when the conflict almost inevitably moves onto Russian soil and their sovereignty is threatened.

Not that nuclear weapons would cause the complete extinction of humanity, but yes hundred of millions could die.
(actually contemporary thermonuclear weapons do not produce that much fallout, but yes what they still produce would be bad).

And you're willing to risk that, all to potentially spare, under the best of circumstances a few tens of thousands of Ukrainians. That's a rather myopic view.

Nobody should want hundreds of millions to die, least of all me. But that is why it is so absurd.
It does not benefit Putin either even though he has no regard for morality, he still cares about his power and place in history. He does not want to go down as the guy who destroyed Russia because NATO tactical bombing caused him to lose Kherson.

But I don't believe that its just going to be NATO tactically bombing Kherson. Unless Russia is just willing to take that on the chin, SAM sites in Russia are going to fire on NATO jets, which means unless NATO is willing to take that blow on the chin they're going to strike Russian bases which then invites Russia to go after NATO bases which almost certainly leads to the Baltics getting invaded at which point you've just turned it into World War III.

You accept something utterly illogical as an axiom because it seems scary. That is the problem. Fear is rarely fully rational.

No, I just don't share in your ridiculous fantasy of putting more people on the chop in some sort of myopic crusade against Russia. Nor do I delude myself into thinking that a dramatic escalation of the conflict is going to be likely to create anything other than even further escalation.

[Post War America]

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At least good news. But now we have all the justification needed (not that we needed more) to look at sanctions on those on the red list. The PRC in particularly has show its true colors, not that we did not know, but that they are actually taking action to support Russia’s war, just because they want to see the West be attacked.

Nah they're just trying to break Russia's back so that they going from being quasi-equal partners to being a Chinese client state. Gotta get that Russian jet tech on the cheap after all.

[Kowani]

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[Picairn]

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My country voted no, probably because of all those sweet Russian weapons.

[Adamede]

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Chad Chad

[Adamede]

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My country voted no, probably because of all those sweet Russian weapons.

And what country is that?

[The Archregimancy]

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Serbia, Turkey, and Myanmar were the three most surprising 'yes' votes for me.

[Picairn]

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Wait, is that Myanmar voting for? Didn't the military junta there support the Russian invasion?

[Novus America]

Why are you accusing me of bloodlust, for wanting to end rather than indefinitely prolong an extremely brutal war?
If you resort to such ad hominems, accusing me of just wanting to see people die for the lols, I will not continue. But I see I hit a nerve. Because you realize that yes we are fighting only to the last Ukrainian. Requiring them to die so we can hide behind them. Like the cowards we are being.

No, I'm accusing you of being a fucking war hawk living in the deluded fantasy that fighting in Ukraine will somehow be anything like Desert Storm instead of a bloodbath under the best of circumstances and a nuclear exchange unless... somehow no further escalations occur.

I do not want to start wars, the war is already raging. I just want to bring it to an end.
I would much prefer Russia simply stop its attacks. But they are obviously not going to do that. The question is how we get them to stop. How we increase our leverage in negotiations enough to bring about a reasonable end.

No, instead you just want to dramatically escalate it, such a big improvement.

I do not believe Russia is willing to see as much of the world burn as they can, just to avoid defeat in Ukraine.
And the more we allow them to get away with things by assuming their nuclear weapons are a first response, rather than a last resort, the more die.

Nobody has to die in nuclear war because it would not plausibly happen. Russia is not suicidal.
Using nuclear weapons would not benefit Russia here.

Sure, as long as the only thing at stake is Ukraine. But you're outright delusional if you think NATO declaring war on Russia is anywhere near likely to see anything other than the spread of the fighting. The only reason Russia hasn't already redeployed the bulk of its army to fight in Ukraine is explicitly because they want to remain prepared for a general conflict with NATO. And this of course assumes that increasing the military presence in Ukraine isn't inherently going to get more Ukrainians killed.

Iraq could have fired chemical weapons to just kill a lot of people. Put chemical weapons on the missiles they used. They did not. Because deterrence actually greatly limits escalation from conventional to WMD use.
It would have gained them nothing to escalate a war to WMDs as they would still lose.

Saddam could live another decade by NOT using such weapons. And using them would have likely meant his death.
So he decided to live. Putin would do the same.

Pointless drivel. Russia stands to gain a lot more tactically from using nuclear weapons in a general war against NATO that Iraq did using chemical weapons against the coalition. Doubly so when the conflict almost inevitably moves onto Russian soil and their sovereignty is threatened.

Not that nuclear weapons would cause the complete extinction of humanity, but yes hundred of millions could die.
(actually contemporary thermonuclear weapons do not produce that much fallout, but yes what they still produce would be bad).

And you're willing to risk that, all to potentially spare, under the best of circumstances a few tens of thousands of Ukrainians. That's a rather myopic view.

Nobody should want hundreds of millions to die, least of all me. But that is why it is so absurd.
It does not benefit Putin either even though he has no regard for morality, he still cares about his power and place in history. He does not want to go down as the guy who destroyed Russia because NATO tactical bombing caused him to lose Kherson.

But I don't believe that its just going to be NATO tactically bombing Kherson. Unless Russia is just willing to take that on the chin, SAM sites in Russia are going to fire on NATO jets, which means unless NATO is willing to take that blow on the chin they're going to strike Russian bases which then invites Russia to go after NATO bases which almost certainly leads to the Baltics getting invaded at which point you've just turned it into World War III.

You accept something utterly illogical as an axiom because it seems scary. That is the problem. Fear is rarely fully rational.

No, I just don't share in your ridiculous fantasy of putting more people on the chop in some sort of myopic crusade against Russia. Nor do I delude myself into thinking that a dramatic escalation of the conflict is going to be likely to create anything other than even further escalation.

That is quite different than being thirsty for blood.
Even if we accept I am delusional, that I am wrong and more will die, despite me not wanting it that is NOT bloodlust!
Mistakenly causing more to die by trying to cause fewer to die is NOT blood lust. Even if we accept you are right, you are still wrong.

So your add hominem was a blatant lie. By your own admission. Pretty desperate eh?

Russia does not have the capability to invade the Baltics successfully while fighting in Ukraine. Not that that would even cause a world war. The world is not Eastern Europe.

Again you assume Russians are suicidally insane and want to destroy the world.

I do not. Hence the impasse. If we accept they are suicidally insane that is the only way you can be right.

No Russia’s only practical, feasible option is to negotiate an end to the war, on terms favorable to us.

Knowing that doing so means their sovereignty and existence is protected, while using nuclear weapons would risk Russia’s destruction.

Explain this logic. You believe Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons, which will escalate into massive strategic countervalue strikes. Which means Russia is destroyed. Which means Russia using the tactical nuclear weapons would be insanely suicidal. And it would make things much worse for them!

So why the fuck would they do it?

You still have zero logic to this.

Your assumption Russia would suicide rather than negotiate is baseless.

No they would have less reason to use nukes. Them using nukes would be more likely to invite a nuclear response on our part than Iraq using chemical weapons.

You are again stuck in a cycle of illogical axioms based on fear.

But okay, what is your alternative to being the war to an end rather than sacrificing Ukrainians indefinitely?

[Novus America]

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Wait, is that Myanmar voting for? Didn't the military junta there support the Russian invasion?

Myanmar’s UN seat is still held by the prior government. Not the Putschists that control most the country.

“In the case of Myanmar, the country’s ambassador, Kyaw Moe Tun, was appointed in October 2020 by the government of Aung San Suu Kyi. When the Myanmar military, called the Tatmadaw, seized power in February, Aung San Suu Kyi and others in the civilian government were detained. Kyaw Moe Tun delivered a powerful speech at the U.N. opposing the coup in late February and has continued to advocate for the ousted civilian government and against international recognition of the junta. The Tatmadaw tried to fire Kyaw Moe Tun, naming his deputy, Tin Maung Naing, as charge d’affaires, but Kyaw Moe Tun refused to step down and Tin Maung Naing resigned.“
https://thediplomat.com/2021/12/afghani ... s-for-now/

[El Lazaro]

Kick this can down the road and you'll find that you may have to take up my cause,

I don't see any reason to believe that.

so take up the can and shove Putin into it.

No.

At the very least it won't be just Ukraine that benefits, but the rest of the CIS.

There's very little benefit to dying of radiation poisoning.

Don’t be a pessimist, things have changed since 1945. You’re more likely to get vaporized, suffer horrific third degree burns, or die via traumatic injuries from debris/getting swept up in the ensuing blast wave. While ground burst fission bombs like Fat Man cause much more direct radiation and nuclear fallout, they aren’t as useful for leveling cities.

[Luziyca]

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Huh, they actually showed some form of strength:

The United Nations suspends Russia from the U.N. Human Rights Council over its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has of course, threatened nations that abstain or vote yes.

About time, in my opinion. Would be nice for other human rights abusers to be removed from the Human Rights Council, but I definitely think Russia should have been removed from it.

[Ifreann]

I don't see any reason to believe that.

No.

There's very little benefit to dying of radiation poisoning.

Don’t be a pessimist, things have changed since 1945. You’re more likely to get vaporized, suffer horrific third degree burns, or die via traumatic injuries from debris/getting swept up in the ensuing blast wave. While ground burst fission bombs like Fat Man cause much more direct radiation and nuclear fallout, they aren’t as useful for leveling cities.

Truly inspiring how far we've come. "What a time to be alive", I think in the last moment before being reduced to my constituent atoms.

[Kowani]

Senate unanimously passes legislation to ban imports of Russian oil, gas and other energy products to the US

Passes House (420-3)

R!No
Massie
Greene
Gaetz

[Kalaron]

For the record, Kat is pretty accurate to the reports coming out of the Reddit Foreign Legion they've stood up. The Ukes don't have a lot of equipment to be handing out to people who more or less are just another warm body to them. It's not exactly a secret that Ukraine's forces have been getting bombed to pieces, heck it's part of the complaints that get raised since Russia tends to catch some civilians in the blasts too.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vice.c ... ign-legion
Silly Vice article, but here's a dude literally saying Ukraine was worse than the entire tour of Afghanistan, because it's the kind of war where soldiers are sort of disposable on both sides.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua ... volunteers
Here's a guy mentioning that you have to bring your own kit, because they aren't interested in giving you anything. It's pretty simple to extrapolate that the "Prior Experience" of some soldiers is meaningless (in both the "do the Ukes care?" and in the "will it be relevant for this war?" senses) because the war is dramatically different from anything they'd have fought in, and because they aren't going to have air-support or whatever when Russia starts dropping missiles on their heads. It's an aggrevated form of the issue with spec-ops soldiers, everyone gets blown up regardless of the training you give them if they catch a mortar in their mouth.

Okay that backs up at best half the post, and the most obvious parts.

It generally helps if you're clear on what parts you want backed up. Anyhow, yeah Galla is correct on it. Corrupt Ukrainian officials exist, war profiteering exists, fleecing money out of a bunch of fools who think they'll be more useful (and long-lived) than they really will be...exists?

War, as it happens, is a relatively good time for the breeding of corruption, especially in countries that weren't exactly bribeless before.

[Gravlen]

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko feels left out...

The president of Belarus, Russia's main ally, on Thursday urged for Minsk to be included in peace talks aimed at ending the "war" in Ukraine, using a term banned by Moscow.

[Post War America]

That is quite different than being thirsty for blood.
Even if we accept I am delusional, that my I am wrong and more will die, despite me not wanting it that is NOT bloodlust!
Mistakenly causing more to die by trying to cause fewer to die is NOT blood lust.

So your add hominem was a blatant lie. By your own admission. Pretty desperate eh?

At best its a hyperbolic statement. I'd rather not become a pedant, so please don't ask me to be one.

Russia does not have the capability to invade the Baltics successfully while fighting in Ukraine. Not that that would even cause a world war. The world is not Eastern Europe.

The key word being successfully. There's plenty of evidence right now that they are at least willing to try and attack what they deem to be a threat. And of course Eastern Europe isn't the world, but Article 5 *exists*, and the US being involved from the other side of the planet certainly isn't part of Eastern Europe.

Again you assume Russians are suicidally insane and want to destroy the world.

I do not. He never the impasse. If we accept they are suicidally insane that is the only way you can be right.

No Russia only practical, feasible option is to negotiate an end to the war, on terms favorable to us.

Knowing that doing so means their sovereignty and existence is protected, while using nuclear weapons would risk Russia’s destruction.[/quote]

Again you assume that I'm not even remotely suggesting that. No, I can just see a perfectly reasonable chain of escalation leading to nuclear war.

Explain this logic. You believe Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons, which will escalate into massive strategic countervalue strikes. Which means Russia is destroyed. Which means Russia using the tactical nuclear weapons would be insanely suicidal. And it would make things much worse for them!

I believe that in a general conflict between NATO and Russia one that becomes increasingly likely the more NATO gets involved, the likelihood that a situation arises where Russia is losing badly enough that using nuclear weapons in order to stave off invasion becomes much greater.

So why the fuck would they do it?

You still have zero logic to this.

Your assumption Russia would suicide rather than negotiate is baseless.

Your assumption that Russia is just going to back down from being attacked by the whole of NATO is on even shakier ground.

No they would have less reason to use nukes. Them using nukes would be more likely to invite a nuclear response on our part than Iraq using chemical weapons.

You are again stuck in a cycle of illogical axioms based on fear.

But okay, what is your alternative to being the war to an end rather than sacrificing Ukrainians indefinitely?

Let anybody who wants out out, and keep providing as many stingers, and nlaws as they want. If NATO military personnel aren't involved in shipping them over to Ukraine, emptying all those stores of old Eastern bloc hardware for their use is A-okay with me. I'm on board with nearly anything other than direct confrontation or possibly deliberately causing a famine in Russia. Because quite frankly there is no way Ukraine gets to maintain its independence properly unless they beat Russia on their own.

[Christian Confederation]

The idea of eastern Europea shipping all the old Soviet tech to Ukraine is funny.

[Picairn]

Don’t be a pessimist, things have changed since 1945. You’re more likely to get vaporized, suffer horrific third degree burns, or die via traumatic injuries from debris/getting swept up in the ensuing blast wave. While ground burst fission bombs like Fat Man cause much more direct radiation and nuclear fallout, they aren’t as useful for leveling cities.

I don't know why people would still want to commit mass suicide despite knowing the effects of nuclear war, honestly.

[Post War America]

The idea of eastern Europea shipping all the old Soviet tech to Ukraine is funny.

I mean, they have a bunch of shiny new (well 90s) F-16s and the like now.

[Dtn]

Ukraine is still only looking for people with military experience and fairly healthy. I wouldn't pass their vetting process. I have to either get into better shape or wait for them to loosen their requirement more. Whichever comes first. I'm working on the first part.

More likely though I'll get my chance when Putin derps and attacks a NATO country before the year's out. I'll be conscripted and i'll be able to physically help in some way then to beat russia's ass.

You were planning on fighting with zero training or preparedness whatsoever? Do you want to die?

I remember when NSG badasses boldly stood up for trans rights by running over knife-wielding churchgoers in their hotrod wheelchairs, now they're just willing to beat Russia's ass in the slight chance they're...conscripted and forced to go through boot camp.

[Benuty]

Don’t be a pessimist, things have changed since 1945. You’re more likely to get vaporized, suffer horrific third degree burns, or die via traumatic injuries from debris/getting swept up in the ensuing blast wave. While ground burst fission bombs like Fat Man cause much more direct radiation and nuclear fallout, they aren’t as useful for leveling cities.

I don't know why people would still want to commit mass suicide despite knowing the effects of nuclear war, honestly.

As the saying goes the living will envy the dead. So maybe its the hope they'll die in it rather than live the last decades of their lives seeing the earth turn into a husk of itself. The first few winters following the collapse of industrial agriculture would be absolutely brutal.

[The Two Jerseys]

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko feels left out...

The president of Belarus, Russia's main ally, on Thursday urged for Minsk to be included in peace talks aimed at ending the "war" in Ukraine, using a term banned by Moscow.

Come on Benito, just admit that you're trying to carve off some Ukrainian land in the deal, because Belarus hasn't done shit to earn a seat at the table...

[Luziyca]

I don't know why people would still want to commit mass suicide despite knowing the effects of nuclear war, honestly.

As the saying goes the living will envy the dead. So maybe its the hope they'll die in it rather than live the last decades of their lives seeing the earth turn into a husk of itself. The first few winters following the collapse of industrial agriculture would be absolutely brutal.

Definitely. If a nuclear war happens, I hope that either some nuke misses its target in the USA and hits my city instead, or that I'm in Washington DC or in some other city that is very likely to be nuked so that I can get vaporized into the afterlife, and not have to starve to death because I'm not the sort of guy who can survive in that brave new world.