Ukrainian War Thread III: The Horrors

[Ifreann]

Yes, basically. Turkey needs the West, and especially more, then the other way around. Erdogan is currently realizing that by trying to establish himself as a regional power and trying to play both sides, he lost big time. And as his economy and currency is in shambles, no thanks to COVID, he needs to grandstand and to sell his consent for Sweden and Finland joining NATO for as much money and concessions as he can, not to mention that he has elections, or whatever passes as such these days in Turkey, coming up.
One has to say one thing: He learned well from observing... basically half of Eastern Europe when there is a new Big Thing being discussed in Brussels.

He's leveraging the situation to the maximum advantage of the Turkish state and his own electoral prospects. He's looking at the board and calculating, "How do I max the value out of this situation? Seeing that Sweden and Finland are ALREADY in all unofficial likelihood protected by NATO (there's already close to zero probability Russia would attack them and even less that NATO would't send troops) and this attempt to join NATO is more or less an attempt to try and troll Russia (though it won't work because Russia is too level-headed), it makes every sense for me to try and block this whilst pushing Turkey's status as a regional player of significance... a nation that sits at the crossroads between East and West and controls one of the world's most strategic waterways. I'm not going to tag along the USA because they got nothing on me, instead, I'm going to press this. Because I very well remember what those Nordic states pulled against me not so long ago. Now is the time to remind everyone that Turkey is still a relevant force in the 2020s. As for that Stoltenurg fellow, it was really very disrespectful (and unwise) of him to declare NATO an open door without first checking in with every member. Unlike the UK and others, we are not America's lapdog state, if America says Jump and the price isn't good enough, then that's on THEM. "

He's looking beyond the fundamentals, beyond the surface gimmicks and really digging at the heart of the issue. Which is whether or not his nation gets any respect in his own regional conflicts (and up until now, they don't get much).

IM, this is what every government does with everything, all the time.

[Perikuresu]

The best I'd see is that Turkey gets a lot of money, Sweden and Finland puts the PKK on their lists of terrorist organisations, and MAYBE some extraditions in order to allow Sweden and Finland to join NATO but not anything else.

[Ifreann]

I mean, the cringe worthy dialogue isn't how any human being speaks, but every government is always trying to benefit themselves in every situation.

[The Selkie]

Yes, basically. Turkey needs the West, and especially more, then the other way around. Erdogan is currently realizing that by trying to establish himself as a regional power and trying to play both sides, he lost big time. And as his economy and currency is in shambles, no thanks to COVID, he needs to grandstand and to sell his consent for Sweden and Finland joining NATO for as much money and concessions as he can, not to mention that he has elections, or whatever passes as such these days in Turkey, coming up.
One has to say one thing: He learned well from observing... basically half of Eastern Europe when there is a new Big Thing being discussed in Brussels.

He's leveraging the situation to the maximum advantage of the Turkish state and his own electoral prospects. He's looking at the board and calculating, "How do I max the value out of this situation? Seeing that Sweden and Finland are ALREADY in all unofficial likelihood protected by NATO (there's already close to zero probability Russia would attack them and even less that NATO would't send troops) and this attempt to join NATO is more or less an attempt to try and troll Russia (though it won't work because Russia is too level-headed), it makes every sense for me to try and block this whilst pushing Turkey's status as a regional player of significance... a nation that sits at the crossroads between East and West and controls one of the world's most strategic waterways. I'm not going to tag along the USA because they got nothing on me, instead, I'm going to press this. Because I very well remember what those Nordic states pulled against me not so long ago. Now is the time to remind everyone that Turkey is still a relevant force in the 2020s. As for that Stoltenurg fellow, it was really very disrespectful (and unwise) of him to declare NATO an open door without first checking in with every member. Unlike the UK and others, we are not America's lapdog state, if America says Jump and the price isn't good enough, then that's on THEM. "

He's looking beyond the fundamentals, beyond the surface gimmicks and really digging at the heart of the issue. Which is whether or not his nation gets any respect in his own regional conflicts (and up until now, they don't get much).

If Erdogan, as you propose, really believes the Bosporus and the Dardanelles to be strategically important, then he simply didn't learn his history and geography. Except for the countries bordering the Black Sea, it is important to no one. It is not the Suez or the Straits of Gibraltar or the Panama Canal or the Straits of Malacca - the amount of trade flowing through is, compared to any of those, vanishingly small.
The "crossroads between East and West" might be fancy for tourists, but that award goes to someone else these days.
That he might be driven by a sort-of revenge thought because some people weren't nice to him, that he seeks maximum profit and to try play the Big Boy Game, but, as mentioned - Turkey needs us more then we need Turkey.

[Picairn]

IM really be out here painting a basic leveraging move of manipulating a well known admission mechanism as some sort of a master strategy with Erdogan twisting his mustache in his lair like the Bismarck of the century.

[Ifreann]

IM really be out here painting a basic leveraging move of manipulating a well known admission mechanism as some sort of a master strategy with Erdogan twisting his mustache in his lair like the Bismarck of the century.

It is kinda funny to imagine Erdogan realising how NATO admission works like a Yu Gi Oh character super dramatically explaining the rules of the children's card game, while his staff stand around awkwardly.

[Tarsonis]

Yes, basically. Turkey needs the West, and especially more, then the other way around. Erdogan is currently realizing that by trying to establish himself as a regional power and trying to play both sides, he lost big time. And as his economy and currency is in shambles, no thanks to COVID, he needs to grandstand and to sell his consent for Sweden and Finland joining NATO for as much money and concessions as he can, not to mention that he has elections, or whatever passes as such these days in Turkey, coming up.
One has to say one thing: He learned well from observing... basically half of Eastern Europe when there is a new Big Thing being discussed in Brussels.

He's leveraging the situation to the maximum advantage of the Turkish state and his own electoral prospects. He's looking at the board and calculating, "How do I max the value out of this situation? Seeing that Sweden and Finland are ALREADY in all unofficial likelihood protected by NATO (there's already close to zero probability Russia would attack them and even less that NATO would't send troops) and this attempt to join NATO is more or less an attempt to try and troll Russia (though it won't work because Russia is too level-headed), it makes every sense for me to try and block this whilst pushing Turkey's status as a regional player of significance... a nation that sits at the crossroads between East and West and controls one of the world's most strategic waterways. I'm not going to tag along the USA because they got nothing on me, instead, I'm going to press this. Because I very well remember what those Nordic states pulled against me not so long ago. Now is the time to remind everyone that Turkey is still a relevant force in the 2020s. As for that Stoltenurg fellow, it was really very disrespectful (and unwise) of him to declare NATO an open door without first checking in with every member. Unlike the UK and others, we are not America's lapdog state, if America says Jump and the price isn't good enough, then that's on THEM. "

He's looking beyond the fundamentals, beyond the surface gimmicks and really digging at the heart of the issue. Which is whether or not his nation gets any respect in his own regional conflicts (and up until now, they don't get much).

These reads like a monolog given by Shane Topp's "The Chosen" character.

[The North Polish Union]

Russian state media is now basically in a "the war is practically lost and we're left alone" messaging mode from clips I've seen. Here's one with English subtitles. Looks like something (possibly Lend-Lease, given the timing) scared the shit out of Z gang and they're preparing some sort of scaling back. Wonder what will happen with Putin, if things fall apart he could be done.

[Punished UMN]

Igor Girkin declares that the Donbass offensive has failed.

Surprisingly candid assessment from a Russian agent and propagandist.

Ex-FSB, ex-military, ex-DPR's defense minister, coordinator of the 2014 takeover of Crimea, wanted criminal for the MH-17 shootdown, saboteur, alleged kidnapper and murderer of a Ukrainian politician, Russian nationalist and imperialist. This guy has a deplorable life, but his is never mediocre. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin

Tbf he's been pretty candid in his criticism of the invasion from the start.

[Adamede]

Turkey confirms opposition to NATO membership for Sweden, Finland

If you placed a bet on it being somewhat related to the PKK then it's bingo for you!

Well played Turkey, well played.

No. This is just going to piss of their NATO partners needlessly.

[Adamede]

He's leveraging the situation to the maximum advantage of the Turkish state and his own electoral prospects. He's looking at the board and calculating, "How do I max the value out of this situation? Seeing that Sweden and Finland are ALREADY in all unofficial likelihood protected by NATO (there's already close to zero probability Russia would attack them and even less that NATO would't send troops) and this attempt to join NATO is more or less an attempt to try and troll Russia (though it won't work because Russia is too level-headed), it makes every sense for me to try and block this whilst pushing Turkey's status as a regional player of significance... a nation that sits at the crossroads between East and West and controls one of the world's most strategic waterways. I'm not going to tag along the USA because they got nothing on me, instead, I'm going to press this. Because I very well remember what those Nordic states pulled against me not so long ago. Now is the time to remind everyone that Turkey is still a relevant force in the 2020s. As for that Stoltenurg fellow, it was really very disrespectful (and unwise) of him to declare NATO an open door without first checking in with every member. Unlike the UK and others, we are not America's lapdog state, if America says Jump and the price isn't good enough, then that's on THEM. "

He's looking beyond the fundamentals, beyond the surface gimmicks and really digging at the heart of the issue. Which is whether or not his nation gets any respect in his own regional conflicts (and up until now, they don't get much).

IM, this is what every government does with everything, all the time.

IM is easily impressed it seems.

[Vassenor]

Turkey confirms opposition to NATO membership for Sweden, Finland

If you placed a bet on it being somewhat related to the PKK then it's bingo for you!

Well played Turkey, well played.

So why don't you explain what makes this a good thing.

[Tarsonis]

Also if Russia was actually "level headed" they wouldn't have invaded Ukraine

[Sungoldy-China]

Igor Girkin declares that the Donbass offensive has failed.

Surprisingly candid assessment from a Russian agent and propagandist.

Ex-FSB, ex-military, ex-DPR's defense minister, coordinator of the 2014 takeover of Crimea, wanted criminal for the MH-17 shootdown, saboteur, alleged kidnapper and murderer of a Ukrainian politician, Russian nationalist and imperialist. This guy has a deplorable life, but his is never mediocre. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin

Tbf he's been pretty candid in his criticism of the invasion from the start.

If you had followed his comments from the beginning.
you would know that from the very beginning he criticized Putin's weakness and incompetence.
He believes that Russia should mobilize in general and treat the Ukrainians more brutally.
All his statements are designed to prove that due to the failure of the pro-Western Putin and his oligarchs, it is time for the Russian nationalists to take over the army to finish the war.

[Adamede]

Apparently someone took a captured AT4 home back to Russia where is blew up in their car.

[Adamede]

Tbf he's been pretty candid in his criticism of the invasion from the start.

If you had followed his comments from the beginning.
you would know that from the very beginning he criticized Putin's weakness and incompetence.
He believes that Russia should mobilize in general and treat the Ukrainians more brutally.
All his statements are designed to prove that due to the failure of the pro-Western Putin and his oligarchs, it is time for the Russian nationalists to take over the army and start a war.

And further cripple the Russian economy, and get tens of thousands of more Russian men killed?

[Tarsonis]

Apparently someone took a captured AT4 home back to Russia where is blew up in their car.

It's printed right on the label "Store HE Anti-Tank weapon in a cool dry area and not in direct sunlight."

[Democratic Communist Federation]

Rare is a communist who will fight other tankies. Is there communities where there are more like-minded people like yourself?

Tankies is a (sometimes derogatory) term for Stalinists or Marxist Leninists. However, a lot Stalinists (including one person in this thread) call themselves Tankies.

By definition, Trotskyists are not Tankies. The term originated when Stalin sent tanks into Czechoslovakia to crush a rebellion

In my Trotskyist tendency in particular, third-camp socialism, we oppose Stalinism. They also oppose us and frequently call us "Trots" and use "Trotskyite" for "Trotskyist." Personally, I have no problem with either of those terms and sometimes call myself a Trot.

The largest third-camp organization in the U.S. is Solidarity (though it also welcomes other Trotskyists). In the UK and Australia, the main third-camp tendency is Workers' Liberty. Solidarity and Workers' Liberty have a good working relationship. We are actually heterodox Trotskyists, since we openly disagreed with Lev (Leon Trotsky) on a couple of points. He did not care for us either. The negative feelings, however, go pretty much one way. Most third campists respect Lev and his work.

Most Trotskyists support Ukraine. Most Marxist-Leninists or Stalinists support Russia.

[Deblar]

If you had followed his comments from the beginning.
you would know that from the very beginning he criticized Putin's weakness and incompetence.
He believes that Russia should mobilize in general and treat the Ukrainians more brutally.
All his statements are designed to prove that due to the failure of the pro-Western Putin and his oligarchs, it is time for the Russian nationalists to take over the army and start a war.

And further cripple the Russian economy, and get tens of thousands of more Russian men killed?

If they were concerned about that, they wouldn't have invaded in the first place

[Northern Socialist Council Republics]

Also if Russia was actually "level headed" they wouldn't have invaded Ukraine

I still struggle to grasp with the sheer pointlessness of this situation.

I can buy that Russian intelligence was taken in by their own propaganda to the point of believing that the Ukrainians really wouldn’t put up much of a fight. But that would’ve been disproven pretty early in the war. It must have been already evident by the 27th of February that this whole invasion was an ill-conceived idea that can’t possibly end well for anyone, least of all the belligerent powers. So why?

[Adamede]

Also if Russia was actually "level headed" they wouldn't have invaded Ukraine

I still struggle to grasp with the sheer pointlessness of this situation.

I can buy that Russian intelligence was taken in by their own propaganda to the point of believing that the Ukrainians really wouldn’t put up much of a fight. But that would’ve been disproven pretty early in the war. It must have been already evident by the 27th of February that this whole invasion was an ill-conceived idea that can’t possibly end well for anyone, least of all the belligerent powers. So why?

Sunk cost fallacy I guess.

[New Baltenstein]

Also if Russia was actually "level headed" they wouldn't have invaded Ukraine

I still struggle to grasp with the sheer pointlessness of this situation.

I can buy that Russian intelligence was taken in by their own propaganda to the point of believing that the Ukrainians really wouldn’t put up much of a fight. But that would’ve been disproven pretty early in the war. It must have been already evident by the 27th of February that this whole invasion was an ill-conceived idea that can’t possibly end well for anyone, least of all the belligerent powers. So why?

Why what? Why is Russia continuing instead of calling it quits early on? Because doing so would have result in a major and potentially regime-changing face-loss. And on a very personal level, Putin's ego and self-appointed historic mission probably couldn't and still can't bear the thought.

[The United Penguin Commonwealth]

Also if Russia was actually "level headed" they wouldn't have invaded Ukraine

I still struggle to grasp with the sheer pointlessness of this situation.

I can buy that Russian intelligence was taken in by their own propaganda to the point of believing that the Ukrainians really wouldn’t put up much of a fight. But that would’ve been disproven pretty early in the war. It must have been already evident by the 27th of February that this whole invasion was an ill-conceived idea that can’t possibly end well for anyone, least of all the belligerent powers. So why?

because they don’t want make Russia seem weak, I guess. at least to their citizens.

[Democratic Communist Federation]

I can buy that Russian intelligence was taken in by their own propaganda to the point of believing that the Ukrainians really wouldn’t put up much of a fight. But that would’ve been disproven pretty early in the war. It must have been already evident by the 27th of February that this whole invasion was an ill-conceived idea that can’t possibly end well for anyone, least of all the belligerent powers. So why?

IMO, because it mostly comes down to satisfying Putin's ego. To him, building a new Russian empire, without Ukraine as a part of it, probably doesn't make much sense.

Putin has been shadowboxing with his self-conceived enemy.

[Adamede]

On top of burning crops in fields and stealing and destroying tractors and combines the Russians have destroyed Ukraine's national seed gene bank. Among the seeds destroyed included varieties no longer found anywhere else in Europe and for some the entire world.