Ukrainian War Thread III: The Horrors

[Antipatros]

Also, the Russian high command likely employs some of the best trained elite guards in the world.

It’s highly unlikely Ukrainian special forces could outshoot them in a protracted gun battle.

Is this from real life or from the movies?

It's a little known fact that Putin drinks wine like Cersei Lannister and has a Russian version of the Mountain standing at his side at all times to protect him.

[Picairn]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 433146.cms

It is actually non-lethal aid the CBS documentary is talking about, and the situation has dramatically improved according to their own article.

Jonas Ohman is founder and CEO of Blue-Yellow, a Lithuania-based organization that has been meeting with and supplying frontline units with non-lethal military aid in Ukraine since the start of the conflict with Russia-backed separatists in 2014. Back in April, he estimated that just "30-40%" of the supplies coming across the border reached its final destination. But he says the situation has significantly improved since then and a much larger quantity now gets where it's supposed to go.

The government of Ukraine notes that U.S. defense attaché Brigadier General Garrick M. Harmon arrived in Kyiv in August 2022 for arms control and monitoring.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/04/uk ... lapse-aid/

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 433146.cms

https://www.axios.com/2022/03/20/ukrain ... ssian-ties

https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

In addition to the economic collapse, the fledgling efficiency of western aid, enormous depopulation from refugees, grave munitions shortages, and the politically hostile climate which Zelensky has been fermenting behind his own frontlines, I've heard that the Ukrainian army is beginning suffer sever manpower shortages as well ( though without as much means of making up for it like what the russians have been experiencing ). Ukraine is not in a good position, and at this point seems to be propt up entirely by what western aid it can get. The recent counter offensive in the south seems less to me like a comeback, and more like their version of the Ardennes offensive.

Ukraine is a fully functioning nationstate, not a decaying multi-ethnic empire waiting to implode. Their economy will fall on hard times because of the invasion (duh), but it's not like they are going to fracture and descend into a failed state or something. The counteroffensive in Kherson is too early to tell, it doesn't seem like Ukraine has exhausted itself if it can still blast Russian command posts & ammunition depots behind the line, severely disrupting Russian military logistics. And what is this manpower shortage you speak of, since last I heard Ukraine has mobilized up to a million men into the army?

[Based Illinois]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 433146.cms

It is actually non-lethal aid the CBS documentary is talking about, and the situation has dramatically improved according to their own article.

Jonas Ohman is founder and CEO of Blue-Yellow, a Lithuania-based organization that has been meeting with and supplying frontline units with non-lethal military aid in Ukraine since the start of the conflict with Russia-backed separatists in 2014. Back in April, he estimated that just "30-40%" of the supplies coming across the border reached its final destination. But he says the situation has significantly improved since then and a much larger quantity now gets where it's supposed to go.

The government of Ukraine notes that U.S. defense attaché Brigadier General Garrick M. Harmon arrived in Kyiv in August 2022 for arms control and monitoring.

The claim that the number has improved significantly is, itself, unsubstantiated, mind you. Western governments certainly have not been themselves above utilizing media to spread propoganda and misinformation throughout this conflict ( lest we forget, The Ghost of Kiev ). Perhaps the information that was presented in the report was out of date - but I have a suspicion that it's closer to the truth than not.

[The Lone Alliance]

You know who else banned parties in wartime?
Sweden, when we banned the progenitor of the Left Party in 1939.
Britain, who carted the Duke of Windsor off to Bahamas and put Mosley in house arrest.

Sweden and Britain were highly stable democracies that didn't have massive criminal organzations and violent internal seperatist movements threatening their government.

There are no real separatist movements threatening Ukraine anymore, the Donbass rebels have no agency and now only exist to serve as cannon fodder in the Russian army and be mouth pieces for when Russia wants plausable deniability. The nationalists hate Russia more than they hate the government and Russia lost any chance at turning them against the government by openly declaring that their goal was to exterminate the Nationalists in Ukraine.
Most of the leaders of the criminal organizations in Ukraine ran for the border when the war began because war is very bad for criminal enterprise and if Russia wins Russia will kill them because Putin will rather have Russian criminal organizations move in and take over because they are ultimately loyal to him.

And no there is no real Pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine anymore so there's little chance of a revolt that will install some pro-Russian puppet, that ship sailed after Russia stated they'd have to kill whole percentages of the population for refusing to stop being Ukrainians. And the whole "Indiscriminate slaughter of everyone without care who they are".

So I don't get where you seem to think Ukraine's on toppling point, like in most cases like this a vast overwhelming external threat threatening extermination is a good way to force people to rally together even if they disagree.

[Picairn]

The claim that the number has improved significantly is, itself, unsubstantiated, mind you. Western governments certainly have not been themselves above utilizing media to spread propoganda and misinformation throughout this conflict ( lest we forget, The Ghost of Kiev ). Perhaps the information that was presented in the report was out of date - but I have a suspicion that it's closer to the truth than not.

So you are inclined to believe a portion of what the pro-Ukraine Lithuanian CEO said about the "30% aid" claim, but you think his next claim within the same sentence about "the situation has been improved" is Western propaganda? Why? This smells like cherry-picking.

[The Lone Alliance]

The claim that the number has improved significantly is, itself, unsubstantiated, mind you. Western governments certainly have not been themselves above utilizing media to spread propoganda and misinformation throughout this conflict ( lest we forget, The Ghost of Kiev ). Perhaps the information that was presented in the report was out of date - but I have a suspicion that it's closer to the truth than not.

So you are inclined to believe a portion of what the pro-Ukraine Lithuanian CEO said about the "30% aid" claim, but you think his next claim within the same sentence about "the situation has been improved" is Western propaganda? Why? This smells like cherry-picking.

Really the moment they brought up the idea that the "Ghost of Kyiv" was some kind of western government propaganda and not a meme that half the internet spread simply because it pissed off Russians shows you're dealing with someone with Pro-Russian talking points and not much else.

[Based Illinois]

Ukraine is a fully functioning nationstate, not a decaying multi-ethnic empire waiting to implode.

Ah, it's in the middle of a sectarian civil war were the minority russians have literally broken off and sided with the invader. Fully functioning nation states don't descend into sectarian civil war.

Their economy will fall on hard times because of the invasion (duh), but it's not like they are going to fracture and descend into a failed state or something.

If the economy continues to crash as it has been, it very well might. 45% and dropping in less than a year.

The counteroffensive in Kherson is too early to tell, it doesn't seem like Ukraine has exhausted itself if it can still blast Russian command posts & ammunition depots behind the line, severely disrupting Russian military logistics. And what is this manpower shortage you speak of, since last I heard Ukraine has mobilized up to a million men into the army?

Getting a feel for the actual number of Ukrainian casualties is something quite difficult, with the government not releasing official numbers and only estimates from outside entities. What has been pieced together though from anecodotes from onsite sources and some words said by the president, the situation is appearing grim, with possibly 200 men killed or injured every day.

Look, I do hope the best for Ukraine, but I feel like a lot of you guys are just kind of putting your heads in the sand about this because you really really want Russia to lose. I get it, Putin's not a good guy... but the Ukrainians are pretty much running on fumes right now. It's only a matter of time before someone in either the army or the government overthrow him and settle for a peace with Russia.

[Based Illinois]

The claim that the number has improved significantly is, itself, unsubstantiated, mind you. Western governments certainly have not been themselves above utilizing media to spread propoganda and misinformation throughout this conflict ( lest we forget, The Ghost of Kiev ). Perhaps the information that was presented in the report was out of date - but I have a suspicion that it's closer to the truth than not.

So you are inclined to believe a portion of what the pro-Ukraine Lithuanian CEO said about the "30% aid" claim, but you think his next claim within the same sentence about "the situation has been improved" is Western propaganda? Why? This smells like cherry-picking.

Could be. I'm pretty jaded against pretty much the entire field of journalism. Something critical comes out which attacks the current narrative and which only a short time ago was a matter of pretty big political contention ( remebering Rand Paul wanting to have the 43 billion $ in aid to be monitored in it's use ) is immediately brought down by interested parties, makes me pretty suspicious. If they'd provided some evidence countering the narrative, that'd be a different story, but they just took it down.

[The Lone Alliance]

Ah, it's in the middle of a sectarian civil war were the minority russians have literally broken off and sided with the invader. Fully functioning nation states don't descend into sectarian civil war.

Except by and large the vast majority of the minority Russian populace did not break off and side with the invader. When the Russian invasion happened there was no massive rising up by the Russian speaking populace of Ukraine, there was no massive push to overthrow the government and there were no massive cheering crowds of Ukrainians greeting the Russians as liberators. Not even among the Russian speaking crowd. If anything even the Pro-Russian separatists are having second thoughts about their support because so many of them are dying pointlessly under Russian command.

If the economy continues to crash as it has been, it very well might. 45% and dropping in less than a year.

And that doesn't matter as long as the west continues to send support.

SNIP attrition

And Russia isn't doing that much better, that's the entire reason why Russia is simply trying to fight by flattening everything in front of them and then walking over the rubble, they don't have the manpower or the morale anymore to have their troops make sweeping offenses anymore.

Look, I do hope the best for Ukraine, but I feel like a lot of you guys are just kind of putting your heads in the sand about this because you really really want Russia to lose. I get it, Putin's not a good guy... but the Ukrainians are pretty much running on fumes right now. It's only a matter of time before someone in either the army or the government overthrow him and settle for a peace with Russia.

And what's stopping the Ukrainian ultra-nationalists from overthrowing those overthrowers?

There's not really any peace condition Ukraine can trust from Russia at this point, there is nothing stopping from Russia making a peace deal, waiting six months, and deciding, "I rested up enough time for round two" and taking the whole nation. There's also the fact that by and large the Ukrainian people are still more angry at Russia than the government. So a government attempting to make peace with Russia after Russia has done so much to hurt Ukraine will be a government that won't last very long.

As for the Ukrainian army, while they do have problems and the front line is hell on earth for many of them, the Army is still functioning and isn't in a state of full collapse, the worst we'll see the Army do in the near future is do more retreating.

[Picairn]

Ah, it's in the middle of a sectarian civil war were the minority russians have literally broken off and sided with the invader. Fully functioning nation states don't descend into sectarian civil war.

"Sectarian civil war"? What? This is an invasion, and ethnic Russians are already living in DNR/LNR territory (puppet states propped up by Russia) or Crimea, all of which are under Russian occupation. The rest of Ukraine are unoccupied (except Russian gains) and have no significant ethnic tension.

If the economy continues to crash as it has been, it very well might. 45% and dropping in less than a year.

Buddy the USSR lost like 34% of its GDP in WW2 because of the German invasion lol. Ukraine is a much smaller state but so is its economy. And I think they'll survive with Western support and a unified population.

Getting a feel for the actual number of Ukrainian casualties is something quite difficult, with the government not releasing official numbers and only estimates from outside entities. What has been pieced together though from anecodotes from onsite sources and some words said by the president, the situation is appearing grim, with possibly 200 men killed or injured every day.

Look, I do hope the best for Ukraine, but I feel like a lot of you guys are just kind of putting your heads in the sand about this because you really really want Russia to lose. I get it, Putin's not a good guy... but the Ukrainians are pretty much running on fumes right now. It's only a matter of time before someone in either the army or the government overthrow him and settle for a peace with Russia.

Why does this sound eerily like concern trolling? Ukraine has an "experienced and well-drilled troops" problem, not a manpower problem. The best units have been attrited in urban warfare with the Russians in the Donbass and the North, this I'm aware. But the Russians are not making any significant headway either. Since the capture of Lysychansk their territorial gains have been WW1 levels of small. They are trying to fight a war without mobilization, a military disadvantage that will only grow with time. Their ammunition depots and command posts have been torn to shreds by HIMARS. I don't think Ukraine can reconquer everything, but it can retake territories in the South with time. How do you know that they have expended everything, that a coup is imminent? And why do Ukrainian generals want to risk the ire of a vengeful population not yet exhausted by war to coup Zelensky?

[Picairn]

Could be. I'm pretty jaded against pretty much the entire field of journalism. Something critical comes out which attacks the current narrative and which only a short time ago was a matter of pretty big political contention ( remebering Rand Paul wanting to have the 43 billion $ in aid to be monitored in it's use ) is immediately brought down by interested parties, makes me pretty suspicious. If they'd provided some evidence countering the narrative, that'd be a different story, but they just took it down.

Let me guess, you only believe the pro-Ukraine Lithuanian CEO when he says something you agree with, but the moment he says something contrary you'll immediately distrust him because he's bought by Western interests? Am I getting this right?

[Based Illinois]

Snip

Look, it seems like your entire view of Ukraine winning this war is really dependent on a huge amount of " if's " and wishful thinking, and everything going just right. I want Ukraine to have a happy ending as well, but I'm mature enough to face facts. Yeah, nations on the brink of collapse have turned things around before - but they usually don't.

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

SNIP attrition

And Russia isn't doing that much better, that's the entire reason why Russia is simply trying to fight by flattening everything in front of them and then walking over the rubble, they don't have the manpower or the morale anymore to have their troops make sweeping offenses anymore.

Speaking of which

"They will accept murderers, but not rapists, pedophiles, extremists, or terrorists", he said. "Amnesty or a pardon in six months is on offer. Somebody talks about 100,000 rubles a month, another 200,000. Everything is different."

So... murderers are fine but not the other scums of the Earth?

[The Lone Alliance]

Snip

Look, it seems like your entire view of Ukraine winning this war is really dependent on a huge amount of " if's " and wishful thinking, and everything going just right. I want Ukraine to have a happy ending as well, but I'm mature enough to face facts. Yeah, nations on the brink of collapse have turned things around before - but they usually don't.

Except you aren't facing facts, and the facts is it's far more likely Ukraine is only going to radicalize against Russia than they are to desire surrender to Russia. Terror bombing and indiscriminate civilian attacks does not make the civilian populace more likely to surrender, it just makes them angrier. And really you didn't read my post if you actually think a bunch of crazy ultranationalists taking over Ukraine is in any form "Wishful thinking", that's a bad outcome for everyone.

I'm not expecting any miraculous turn around either in fact I'm expecting Russia to continue to slowly advance in the east until sometime around winter and maybe Ukraine getting scores of Russians killed in Kherson but not fully taking the land back.

But I'm also going to expect that the Ukrainians are going to continue to kill Russians until Russia likely tries to offer a compromise where they give back Kherson and south central Ukraine in exchange for keeping the eastern districts and Crimea.

There is no condition here where Ukraine agrees to be Russia's slaves. That's over. The Best Russia's going to get is a blasted wasteland of land that will be enough to bury all the bodies they created.

[Based Illinois]

Ah, it's in the middle of a sectarian civil war were the minority russians have literally broken off and sided with the invader. Fully functioning nation states don't descend into sectarian civil war.

"Sectarian civil war"? What? This is an invasion, and ethnic Russians are already living in DNR/LNR territory (puppet states propped up by Russia) or Crimea, all of which are under Russian occupation. The rest of Ukraine are unoccupied (except Russian gains) and have no significant ethnic tension.[/quote]

If ethnic-seperatists are breaking off from your country and siding with invaders to fight the national majority ethnicity government... that's kind of the definition of a sectarian civil war. Yeah, there are no significant ethnic tensions ( except in those parts of the country that broke off and declared war on us ).

Buddy the USSR lost like 34% of its GDP in WW2 because of the German invasion lol. Ukraine is a much smaller state but so is its economy. And I think they'll survive with Western support and a unified population

Yes, the Ukrainian economy is smaller and has lost comprativly more of it's GDP. The Soviet Union turned things around because it could win a war of attrition against smaller Germany. Russia has more money, resources, and manpower it can bleed than Ukraine. Maybe Ukraine can turn things around, but there's been no indication of that thus far. The best hope they have is the counter offensive in Kherson, and after almost a month it's not really progressed much and is in danger of running out of munitions, while Russia is still slowly pushing west.

Why does this sound eerily like concern trolling? Ukraine has an "experienced and well-drilled troops" problem, not a manpower problem. The best units have been attrited in urban warfare with the Russians in the Donbass and the North, this I'm aware. But the Russians are not making any significant headway either. Since the capture of Lysychansk their territorial gains have been WW1 levels of small. They are trying to fight a war without mobilization, a military disadvantage that will only grow with time. Their ammunition depots and command posts have been torn to shreds by HIMARS. I don't think Ukraine can reconquer everything, but it can retake territories in the South with time.

Again, this seems like really wishful thinking. You see an army lacking professional soldiers, slowly retreating westward, a stalled counter offensive in the south, and no significant gains, and you assume that things are getting better for Ukraine? Who is making the leap of faith here?

How do you know that they have expended everything, that a coup is imminent? And why do Ukrainian generals want to risk the ire of a vengeful population not yet exhausted by war to coup Zelensky?

Because the exact same conditions precedded Petain surrendering of France in 1940.

[Based Illinois]

Look, it seems like your entire view of Ukraine winning this war is really dependent on a huge amount of " if's " and wishful thinking, and everything going just right. I want Ukraine to have a happy ending as well, but I'm mature enough to face facts. Yeah, nations on the brink of collapse have turned things around before - but they usually don't.

Except you aren't facing facts, and the facts is it's far more likely Ukraine is only going to radicalize against Russia than they are to desire surrender to Russia. Terror bombing and indiscriminate civilian attacks does not make the civilian populace more likely to surrender, it just makes them angrier. And really you didn't read my post if you actually think a bunch of crazy ultranationalists taking over Ukraine is in any form "Wishful thinking", that's a bad outcome for everyone.

I'm not expecting any miraculous turn around either in fact I'm expecting Russia to continue to slowly advance in the east until sometime around winter and maybe Ukraine getting scores of Russians killed in Kherson but not fully taking the land back.

But I'm also going to expect that the Ukrainians are going to continue to kill Russians until Russia likely tries to offer a compromise where they give back Kherson and south central Ukraine in exchange for keeping the eastern districts and Crimea.

There is no condition here where Ukraine agrees to be Russia's slaves. That's over, they hate Russia and from now on they will always hate Russia, like most of Eastern Europe.

Okay buddy

[Based Illinois]

Could be. I'm pretty jaded against pretty much the entire field of journalism. Something critical comes out which attacks the current narrative and which only a short time ago was a matter of pretty big political contention ( remebering Rand Paul wanting to have the 43 billion $ in aid to be monitored in it's use ) is immediately brought down by interested parties, makes me pretty suspicious. If they'd provided some evidence countering the narrative, that'd be a different story, but they just took it down.

Let me guess, you only believe the pro-Ukraine Lithuanian CEO when he says something you agree with, but the moment he says something contrary you'll immediately distrust him because he's bought by Western interests? Am I getting this right?

No, I gave my reasoning for why I believed his first statement.

[The Lone Alliance]

Okay buddy

I'm pretty much predicting a Winter War Victory for Russia as their best outcome, they win enough land to bury the bodies. It's not an outcome a lot of the Pro-Ukrainians want but I find it's the most realistic one. A Ukraine that returns to Russia, not happening. Whatever brotherhood Ukraine had with Russia is dead.

And even then I think we have at least till the end of summer before either side entertains such ideas.

Because the exact same conditions precedded Petain surrendering of France in 1940.

Those conditions were more accurate in existing at the beginning of the war where large portions of the Russian army were outside Kyiv and the vast majority of the Ukrainian army was located at the Donbass border helpless to do anything to reinforce the capitol. And yet it didn't happen.

Now it's not 1940s France it's more 1915s France. The War has become World War 1 in tactics, not 2.

[Picairn]

If ethnic-seperatists are breaking off from your country and siding with invaders to fight the national majority ethnicity government... that's kind of the definition of a sectarian civil war. Yeah, there are no significant ethnic tensions ( except in those parts of the country that broke off and declared war on us ).

I don't think you know what a civil war is. This is equivalent to saying the 2003 invasion of Iraq was a sectarian civil war because the Kurdish Peshmerga supported the coalition forces in overthrowing Saddam.

Yes, the Ukrainian economy is smaller and has lost comprativly more of it's GDP. The Soviet Union turned things around because it could win a war of attrition against smaller Germany. Russia has more money, resources, and manpower it can bleed than Ukraine. Maybe Ukraine can turn things around, but there's been no indication of that thus far. The best hope they have is the counter offensive in Kherson, and after almost a month it's not really progressed much and is in danger of running out of munitions, while Russia is still slowly pushing west.

After the fall of Lysychansk, Russia is currently enjoying WW1 gains while slowly retreating from the Kherson frontline. As I said, it is trying to fight this war without mass mobilization, so its manpower advantage will decline significantly with time. The only things Ukraine lacks is money and equipment, which is being comfortably supplied by Western support. That support is not drying up anytime soon. It is too early for anyone to triumphantly declare that the war is over.

Again, this seems like really wishful thinking. You see an army lacking professional soldiers, slowly retreating westward, a stalled counter offensive in the south, and no significant gains, and you assume that things are getting better for Ukraine? Who is making the leap of faith here?

The only wishful thinking here is you believing that Ukraine will somehow collapse despite being backed up by Western support and a vengeful citizenry. The professional soldiers problem is being fixed with Western training for Ukrainian soldiers. You see Russia making WW1 gains slower by the day and still think this army can make Ukraine collapse? What are you smoking, my man? Russia can't make Ukraine collapse by grinding pushes for small pieces of territory, it needs to capture Kyiv for that and we all know how that went.

Because the exact same conditions precedded Petain surrendering of France in 1940.

Are the Russians in Kyiv right now? Really funny to see nonsensical historical comparisons in action.

[Picairn]

No, I gave my reasoning for why I believed his first statement.

Ah, so you confirmed what I said. Thank you. Pretty brave of you to do open cherry-picking in public, I must tip my hat to you.

Edit: If it's not clear to you, you just basically did this.

Him: We believe only 30%-40% of non-lethal military aid to Ukraine reached their final destination...
You: Haha YES! This is a true fact because it contradicts the mainstream Western narrative!
Him:... but the situation has improved since then.
You: NOOOOOOOOO! Lie! Western propaganda! He is bought by Western interests!

[Catalonia 2070 RP]

Look, it seems like your entire view of Ukraine winning this war is really dependent on a huge amount of " if's " and wishful thinking, and everything going just right. I want Ukraine to have a happy ending as well, but I'm mature enough to face facts. Yeah, nations on the brink of collapse have turned things around before - but they usually don't.

Except you aren't facing facts, and the facts is it's far more likely Ukraine is only going to radicalize against Russia than they are to desire surrender to Russia. Terror bombing and indiscriminate civilian attacks does not make the civilian populace more likely to surrender, it just makes them angrier. And really you didn't read my post if you actually think a bunch of crazy ultranationalists taking over Ukraine is in any form "Wishful thinking", that's a bad outcome for everyone.

I'm not expecting any miraculous turn around either in fact I'm expecting Russia to continue to slowly advance in the east until sometime around winter and maybe Ukraine getting scores of Russians killed in Kherson but not fully taking the land back.

But I'm also going to expect that the Ukrainians are going to continue to kill Russians until Russia likely tries to offer a compromise where they give back Kherson and south central Ukraine in exchange for keeping the eastern districts and Crimea.

There is no condition here where Ukraine agrees to be Russia's slaves. That's over. The Best Russia's going to get is a blasted wasteland of land that will be enough to bury all the bodies they created.

Terror bombing has gotten civillians more likely to surrender before. There were two very large terror bombing strikes on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. What followed? Japanese surrender.

However, I don't think Russia will win. For everything else, I agree with.

[Ifreann]

Except you aren't facing facts, and the facts is it's far more likely Ukraine is only going to radicalize against Russia than they are to desire surrender to Russia. Terror bombing and indiscriminate civilian attacks does not make the civilian populace more likely to surrender, it just makes them angrier. And really you didn't read my post if you actually think a bunch of crazy ultranationalists taking over Ukraine is in any form "Wishful thinking", that's a bad outcome for everyone.

I'm not expecting any miraculous turn around either in fact I'm expecting Russia to continue to slowly advance in the east until sometime around winter and maybe Ukraine getting scores of Russians killed in Kherson but not fully taking the land back.

But I'm also going to expect that the Ukrainians are going to continue to kill Russians until Russia likely tries to offer a compromise where they give back Kherson and south central Ukraine in exchange for keeping the eastern districts and Crimea.

There is no condition here where Ukraine agrees to be Russia's slaves. That's over. The Best Russia's going to get is a blasted wasteland of land that will be enough to bury all the bodies they created.

Terror bombing has gotten civillians more likely to surrender before. There were two very large terror bombing strikes on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. What followed? Japanese surrender.

However, I don't think Russia will win. For everything else, I agree with.

Japan didn't surrender because terrorised civilians forced the hand of their government.

[Catalonia 2070 RP]

Terror bombing has gotten civillians more likely to surrender before. There were two very large terror bombing strikes on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. What followed? Japanese surrender.

However, I don't think Russia will win. For everything else, I agree with.

Japan didn't surrender because terrorised civilians forced the hand of their government.

That is true. On the contrary, I (believe) many were upset at the government surrendering and wanted to fight to the death.

[Fartsniffage]

And Russia isn't doing that much better, that's the entire reason why Russia is simply trying to fight by flattening everything in front of them and then walking over the rubble, they don't have the manpower or the morale anymore to have their troops make sweeping offenses anymore.

Speaking of which

"They will accept murderers, but not rapists, pedophiles, extremists, or terrorists", he said. "Amnesty or a pardon in six months is on offer. Somebody talks about 100,000 rubles a month, another 200,000. Everything is different."

So... murderers are fine but not the other scums of the Earth?

A significant party of infantry training goes into preparing soldier to actually kill another person. The average person will find it very difficult.

It's probably much easier when they've already murdered someone.

[Ifreann]

Japan didn't surrender because terrorised civilians forced the hand of their government.

That is true. On the contrary, I (believe) many were upset at the government surrendering and wanted to fight to the death.

I'm sure some did, but I wouldn't know how many. I would expect that the civilian population, who were already getting bombed rather a lot before Hiroshima and Nagasaki, were probably mostly happy to finally have peace, at least at first.