Ukrainian War Thread III: The Horrors

[Fractalnavel]

...conflict playing out...

I'm more curious about this long term and globally that regionally. It does not seem that Russia is going to be satisfied with mere regional games, and this is not one. So how does it evolve? Is this prologue to ultimately directly engaging western powers? To what end? If Russia's conventional forces cannot keep up on that stage - and those are the indications - does anyone think they will just be satisfied to hold the line on their new hot front lines with NATO members? Or that they will confine themselves to geographically adjacent combatants? What's the only thing they can fight with then?

Right. So why does Russia see the outcome of a nuclear exchange as moving the balance of power in their favor? They have demonstrated that they don't care about literally scorched earth or depopulation or the horrors of human chaos.

And for those who don't want such an outcome, how can they influence the aggressor's calculus in a way that is plain to them to the extent they say "nope, try something else"? And then what is that "something else", because it certainly won't be "peace" (and "peace" is not merely lack of overt violence).

And what happens to all of those nations currently just standing by, whatever their alignments?

And if we put on our tinfoil hats (or take them off)... but I'll leave that to others. I did my part here

[Fourth Jellian Republic]

...conflict playing out...

I'm more curious about this long term and globally that regionally. It does not seem that Russia is going to be satisfied with mere regional games, and this is not one. So how does it evolve? Is this prologue to ultimately directly engaging western powers? To what end? If Russia's conventional forces cannot keep up on that stage - and those are the indications - does anyone think they will just be satisfied to hold the line on their new hot front lines with NATO members? Or that they will confine themselves to geographically adjacent combatants? What's the only thing they can fight with then?

Right. So why does Russia see the outcome of a nuclear exchange as moving the balance of power in their favor? They have demonstrated that they don't care about literally scorched earth or depopulation or the horrors of human chaos.

And for those who don't want such an outcome, how can they influence the aggressor's calculus in a way that is plain to them to the extent they say "nope, try something else"? And then what is that "something else", because it certainly won't be "peace" (and "peace" is not merely lack of overt violence).

And what happens to all of those nations currently just standing by, whatever their alignments?

And if we put on our tinfoil hats (or take them off)... but I'll leave that to others. I did my part here

Russias only option may be to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine gains ground.
(It’s not like they would ever surrender)

I imagine a scenario where Ukraine splits the Russian front and surrounds the Crimean portion.
Russia is set to take extremely heavy losses, new western jets have made it impossible for Russia to gain significant ground, and their “sovereignty” in Crimea is threatened.

At that point they will likely enter new territory in an attempt to force Ukraine to surrender, using
escalating tactics with WMDs, not just nuclear but perhaps their vast stock of chemical as well.


What happens then really is up to the west.
Opinions range from, “give up, they nuked Ukraine, it’s over” to “invade those mass murdering [insert choice word here]”

If the west does nothing, Ukraine has the option to capitulate or be turned to ash.
If the west intervenes, there is really no telling how far things could escalate.

The best assurance against this polar situation is to some how protect Ukraine from nukes.
Either with a strictly nuclear defensive pact, or to provide them nukes, each with substantial risk though.



Also to answer your question, if Russia can’t handle Ukraine, the certainty can’t handle the combined might of the west.
If the west joined the war and nukes were not a consideration, it’s 2 weeks until Russia is out of Ukraine, and 2 more until nato has Moscow.

[Thermodolia]

For my peace of mind, how do you guys see this conflict playing out? Like should I curb my expectations and accept that Ukraine is probably most likely going to lose? Or is the outcome not so bleak?

Frozen conflict.

The Ukrainians won’t take back all of the occupied land but Russia won’t really gain much more. I can really only see Ukraine taking back the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv regions and other areas along the Dnieper.

Everything else will be Russian held as a frozen front will develop soon after

[Hurtful Thoughts]

Russia still officially claims to be the Soviet Union in the UN.

The Russian Federation is the successor state to the Soviet Union, I really don't think that means they're claiming to still be the Soviet Union.

Actually, in UN kegal-paperwork, still the USSR.

They never changeovered the titles to Russia.

[Rusozak]

The Russian Federation is the successor state to the Soviet Union, I really don't think that means they're claiming to still be the Soviet Union.

Actually, in UN kegal-paperwork, still the USSR.

They never changeovered the titles to Russia.

Imagine if we actually managed to get Russia kicked out of the Security Council with a technicality.

[Hurtful Thoughts]

Actually, in UN kegal-paperwork, still the USSR.

They never changeovered the titles to Russia.

Imagine if we actually managed to get Russia kicked out of the Security Council with a technicality.

UN has threatened as much, lately.

Or even so far as to give UNSC powers to Ukraine.

But iirc, some other puddle-nation actually holds that position as :rightful successor" due to being a final holdout of the old-ways.

No, that's like saying the Russian Federation, which is not the Russian Empire, is not the successor state of the USSR.

I can say that, because the Russian Federation is not the successor state to the USSR. The Russian Federation merely a Rump State, one of several that formed following the collapse of the USSR.

we all know kazakhstan is the true successor to the USSR.

Ah, Kahzakstan.

The country I never spell correctly but even when poorly spelled y'all still know which one it is.

[Ifreann]

The Russian Federation is the successor state to the Soviet Union, I really don't think that means they're claiming to still be the Soviet Union.

Actually, in UN kegal-paperwork, still the USSR.

They never changeovered the titles to Russia.

Taking the Soviet Union's seat on the Security Council doesn't mean they're claiming to be the Soviet Union.

[The Two Jerseys]

Imagine if we actually managed to get Russia kicked out of the Security Council with a technicality.

UN has threatened as much, lately.

Or even so far as to give UNSC powers to Ukraine.

But iirc, some other puddle-nation actually holds that position as :rightful successor" due to being a final holdout of the old-ways.

we all know kazakhstan is the true successor to the USSR.

Ah, Kahzakstan.

The country I never spell correctly but even when poorly spelled y'all still know which one it is.

I maintain that Russia claiming that the Lithuanian declaration of independence was illegal is recognition that Lithuania is rightfully the Soviet Union.

[Picairn]

UN has threatened as much, lately.

Or even so far as to give UNSC powers to Ukraine.

But iirc, some other puddle-nation actually holds that position as :rightful successor" due to being a final holdout of the old-ways.

Not gonna happen because:
1) The veto (plus China who absolutely will not entertain Russia's issue unless it wants its seat questioned over Taiwan).
2) Sorry, Kazakhstan already renounced its claim in the Alma-Ata Protocols wherein ex-Soviet states recognized Russia as the true successor to the USSR.
3) Acceptance by other UNSC members. At no point so far has Biden (or France and Britain) even seriously considered that Russia's seat should be given to Kazakhstan, which is under Russia's sphere of influence, however tenous. It is also very likely he'll never consider it, because he has neither the legal (see point 1) nor political (see point 2) force to do it.

[Hurtful Thoughts]

UN has threatened as much, lately.

Or even so far as to give UNSC powers to Ukraine.

But iirc, some other puddle-nation actually holds that position as :rightful successor" due to being a final holdout of the old-ways.

Not gonna happen because:
1) The veto (plus China who absolutely will not entertain Russia's issue unless it wants its seat questioned over Taiwan).
2) Sorry, Kazakhstan already renounced its claim in the Alma-Ata Protocols wherein ex-Soviet states recognized Russia as the true successor to the USSR.
3) Acceptance by other UNSC members. At no point so far has Biden (or France and Britain) even seriously considered that Russia's seat should be given to Kazakhstan, which is under Russia's sphere of influence, however tenous. It is also very likely he'll never consider it, because he has neither the legal (see point 1) nor political (see point 2) force to do it.

1) ironic, since PRC got its seat by questioning Taiwan's seat on the UNSC, claiming to be more legitimate.

2) Yeah, the CIS sorta agreed, under the idea this freed them from being forcibly re-inducted into the USSR.

3) Not complaining isn't the same as acceptance. UN officially hasn't even acknowledged anything. Making it about as dicey as NATO's agreement with USSR not to expand.

[Dtn]

UN officially hasn't even acknowledged anything

Do you know what "UN" is?

[Picairn]

1) ironic, since PRC got its seat by questioning Taiwan's seat on the UNSC, claiming to be more legitimate.

2) Yeah, the CIS sorta agreed, under the idea this freed them from being forcibly re-inducted into the USSR.

3) Not complaining isn't the same as acceptance. UN officially hasn't even acknowledged anything. Making it about as dicey as NATO's agreement with USSR not to expand.

1) Well yes, it is the political entity which controls the Chinese mainland. The ROC hasn't been China since 1949, and legally Taiwan is a province of China.
2) By the time the Alma-Ata Protocol was signed, the USSR was already dissolved from the Belavezha Accords. But the issue here is that you have to convince CIS to retract the Alma-Ata Protocol to deprive Russia's inheritance of political legitimacy. And even then it is not guaranteed that Russia, a nuclear power, would hand the seat over.
3) The UN hasn't passed a formal resolution, sure, but non-objection in this case is the same as acceptance. No country at the time objected to Russia's declaration, let alone raising the issue of whether the seat should go to Kazakhstan. The UN Charter also states that the UNSC is made up of 5 permanent members, so there would be a serious constitutional meltdown if the USSR's seat was thrown out. So in the end, the UN chose geopolitical convenience over legal fights. NATO expansion is another topic entirely.

The issue of whether the biggest state of a defunct nation has to apply for a new seat or can resume its old position is a contentious topic of international law, which I'll admit I don't have much knowledge of. But Russia clearly posesses political legitimacy and geopolitical advantages to secure that seat, and that's good enough for me.

[Picairn]

Kherson's puppet government has set up an election committee to oversee a "referendum" on annexation into Russia.

[Dtn]

The issue of whether the biggest state of a defunct nation has to apply for a new seat or can resume its old position is a contentious topic of international law, which I'll admit I don't have much knowledge of

It's the normal practice - note that Ukraine itself simply succeeded a defunct state.

The "it says USSR in the Charter" argument seems to have originated with the Ukrainian Ministry of Information and was popularized by loons like McFaul, nobody actually takes it seriously. It's just infowar with no real legal basis.

The Kazakhstan thing is just silly, succession isn't like some radio station game where whoever keeps their hands on a car the longest gets to keep it.

There are better and more boring arguments hinging on the exact procedures for expulsion but it's not in anybody's interest except possibly Ukraine to kick a Security Council member (or anyone else) out by creative interpretations of the Charter.

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62287502
And now the bandit is crying that his victim is being mean to him

[Perikuresu]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62287502
And now the bandit is crying that his victim is being mean to him

Ukrainian soldiers being charged with crimes against humanity, and Russia doesn't like their infrastructure and civilians being targeted (even though the latter isn't happening)

I feel like this is a bit of a self insert eh?

[Perikuresu]

Apparently these are claims by Donetsk Defence Minister Igor Girkin:

- RU offensives have stalled due to severe manpower shortages, which can’t be compensated without partial mobilization

- UKR strikes on Kherson bridges will challenge resupplies to RU forces. Pontoon bridges aren’t sufficient to replace them

[Leocardia]

I think Europe will stop caring after they suffer though the winter trying not to freeze to death, Russia will keep using troops from the Middle east and Ukraine will sue for peace, handing over the East and South.

Ukraine is never going to formally cede territory as that would be national suicide. Even if Russia takes over the entire country and installs a puppet government to do it, it will be ignored by everyone outside Russia's entourage of shitty pariah states. Ukraine's UN seat will be retained by a government in exile that will reject all Russian claims, and Russia's puppet regime will never be recognised as legitimate by anyone with anything left to lose in terms of diplomatic relations with the West.

Well, if they do, Ukrainian leaders will end up like Armenian leaders after the war against Azerbaijan.

Armenians in the sense that they were fed news that they were winning the war, then finds out that Armenia cedes territory because they were actually losing the war.

[Manchuria]

Kherson's puppet government has set up an election committee to oversee a "referendum" on annexation into Russia.

Interesting. I wonder if the referendum will actually take place.

[Perikuresu]

Kherson's puppet government has set up an election committee to oversee a "referendum" on annexation into Russia.

Interesting. I wonder if the referendum will actually take place.

We've been given the timeframe, (i.e., by the end of 2022), but considering Ukraine's boasting about it's southern counteroffensive, I'd say that it'd be somewhere between August-September, by the latest, October, I doubt the whole referendum thing will be left to the last minute

[The Huskar Social Union]

"Referendum"

Yeah with a bunch of fucking tanks sitting off to the side

[Northern Socialist Council Republics]

"Referendum"

Yeah with a bunch of fucking tanks sitting off to the side

This won’t be one of those sham referenda where there is only one viable option, though.

Residents shall exercise their free democratic right to choose between 1) Russia annexing them and 2) them being annexed by Russia.

[Chan Island]

"Referendum"

Yeah with a bunch of fucking tanks sitting off to the side

This won’t be one of those sham referenda where there is only one viable option, though.

Residents shall exercise their free democratic right to choose between 1) Russia annexing them and 2) them being annexed by Russia.

And there will be a helpful man from Buryatia explaining which choices are the correct ones. You can tell which one he is, he's got a uniform and a gun.

[Emotional Support Crocodile]

For my peace of mind, how do you guys see this conflict playing out? Like should I curb my expectations and accept that Ukraine is probably most likely going to lose? Or is the outcome not so bleak?

Frozen conflict.

The Ukrainians won’t take back all of the occupied land but Russia won’t really gain much more. I can really only see Ukraine taking back the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv regions and other areas along the Dnieper.

Everything else will be Russian held as a frozen front will develop soon after

So when winter comes will some advantage go to Ukraine, or is that not really a factor anymore?

[Khurkhogur]

Also to answer your question, if Russia can’t handle Ukraine, the certainty can’t handle the combined might of the west.
If the west joined the war and nukes were not a consideration, it’s 2 weeks until Russia is out of Ukraine, and 2 more until nato has Moscow.

I never get why people say this. "If...nukes were not a consideration"
Nukes are a consideration. Nukes will be used in a direct confrontation between Russia and the West if there is no ceasefire in the first 24 hours. Strategic weapons would probably be used en masse after some escalation.
Why do you think Russia waves its nukes around frantically every other day? They want to remind the West that while conventionally, they're far weaker, they could bring about nuclear apocalypse just as easily as America could.