Ukrainian War Thread III: The Horrors

[Perikuresu]

Man I hope Russia collapses like the USSR did. This war must be draining their finances brutally. There was a time when I sympathized with the Russian people in this conflict, that they were the victims of a corrupt leader, but as time goes on its clear to me that the Russian people are a reflection of their leader and their leader a reflection of them. I will not mourn when the full repercussions of the Russians' ignorance finally catches up to them.

Russia's loosing manpower and ammo according to British intelligence, the war's basically a war of attrition now, and Ukraine has the west restocking them so, I think Ukraine has a chance

But if Russia does break up, I doubt it'd be as peaceful (well, relatively peaceful) as the USSR

[Nevertopia]

Man I hope Russia collapses like the USSR did. This war must be draining their finances brutally. There was a time when I sympathized with the Russian people in this conflict, that they were the victims of a corrupt leader, but as time goes on its clear to me that the Russian people are a reflection of their leader and their leader a reflection of them. I will not mourn when the full repercussions of the Russians' ignorance finally catches up to them.

Russia's loosing manpower and ammo according to British intelligence, the war's basically a war of attrition now, and Ukraine has the west restocking them so, I think Ukraine has a chance

But if Russia does break up, I doubt it'd be as peaceful (well, relatively peaceful) as the USSR

What do you think is the most likely outcome to this conflict? And what do you hope is the best outcome?

For me I think this is going to be Russia's Afghanistan. It'll be a long, protracted war by a well-funded and well-trained people's militia but worse because the government and national army are also actively working against them. Maybe 10-15 years from now Russia will declare that they accomplished their mission by saying they liberated the closest territories near their borders and pulling back before Ukraine retakes them faster than Afghanistan collapsing after the Americans left. And that to me is the best case scenario.

Or maybe Putin dies from whatever Cancer he has and Ukraine lucks out. Russia collapses as all the oligarchs gut the country for all its worth before leaving for greener pastures.

Man why cant we all just get along? How hard is it not to commit war crimes?

[Thomasi]

Russia's loosing manpower and ammo according to British intelligence, the war's basically a war of attrition now, and Ukraine has the west restocking them so, I think Ukraine has a chance

But if Russia does break up, I doubt it'd be as peaceful (well, relatively peaceful) as the USSR

What do you think is the most likely outcome to this conflict? And what do you hope is the best outcome?

For me I think this is going to be Russia's Afghanistan. It'll be a long, protracted war by a well-funded and well-trained people's militia but worse because the government and national army are also actively working against them. Maybe 10-15 years from now Russia will declare that they accomplished their mission by saying they liberated the closest territories near their borders and pulling back before Ukraine retakes them faster than Afghanistan collapsing after the Americans left. And that to me is the best case scenario.

Or maybe Putin dies from whatever Cancer he has and Ukraine lucks out. Russia collapses as all the oligarchs gut the country for all its worth before leaving for greener pastures.

Man why cant we all just get along? How hard is it not to commit war crimes?

I think Europe will stop caring after they suffer though the winter trying not to freeze to death, Russia will keep using troops from the Middle east and Ukraine will sue for peace, handing over the East and South.

I hope Ukraine kicks their ass, and they suffer an Economic depression making Russia too weak for Decades.

[Nimzonia]

What do you think is the most likely outcome to this conflict? And what do you hope is the best outcome?

For me I think this is going to be Russia's Afghanistan. It'll be a long, protracted war by a well-funded and well-trained people's militia but worse because the government and national army are also actively working against them. Maybe 10-15 years from now Russia will declare that they accomplished their mission by saying they liberated the closest territories near their borders and pulling back before Ukraine retakes them faster than Afghanistan collapsing after the Americans left. And that to me is the best case scenario.

Or maybe Putin dies from whatever Cancer he has and Ukraine lucks out. Russia collapses as all the oligarchs gut the country for all its worth before leaving for greener pastures.

Man why cant we all just get along? How hard is it not to commit war crimes?

I think Europe will stop caring after they suffer though the winter trying not to freeze to death, Russia will keep using troops from the Middle east and Ukraine will sue for peace, handing over the East and South.

Ukraine is never going to formally cede territory as that would be national suicide. Even if Russia takes over the entire country and installs a puppet government to do it, it will be ignored by everyone outside Russia's entourage of shitty pariah states. Ukraine's UN seat will be retained by a government in exile that will reject all Russian claims, and Russia's puppet regime will never be recognised as legitimate by anyone with anything left to lose in terms of diplomatic relations with the West.

[Thomasi]

I think Europe will stop caring after they suffer though the winter trying not to freeze to death, Russia will keep using troops from the Middle east and Ukraine will sue for peace, handing over the East and South.

Ukraine is never going to formally cede territory as that would be national suicide. Even if Russia takes over the entire country and installs a puppet government to do it, it will be ignored by everyone outside Russia's entourage of shitty pariah states. Ukraine's UN seat will be retained by a government in exile that will reject all Russian claims, and Russia's puppet regime will never be recognised as legitimate by anyone with anything left to lose in terms of diplomatic relations with the West.

What do governments in exile actually do? Like if a new government isn't recognized then do that mean the people who have just been conquered are ignored by the international community? In the worst case scenario where Russia's flag flies over Kyiv, what would not recognizing the reality of the situation accomplish for Ukraine?

[Nimzonia]

Ukraine is never going to formally cede territory as that would be national suicide. Even if Russia takes over the entire country and installs a puppet government to do it, it will be ignored by everyone outside Russia's entourage of shitty pariah states. Ukraine's UN seat will be retained by a government in exile that will reject all Russian claims, and Russia's puppet regime will never be recognised as legitimate by anyone with anything left to lose in terms of diplomatic relations with the West.

What do governments in exile actually do? Like if a new government isn't recognized then do that mean the people who have just been conquered are ignored by the international community? In the worst case scenario where Russia's flag flies over Kyiv, what would not recognizing the reality of the situation accomplish for Ukraine?

A government in exile's purpose would be to ensure international recognition of the continuity of legal Ukrainian statehood, and maintain diplomatic relations with allies who can provide supplies and intelligence to an organised resistance. If Russia annexes Ukrainian territory there is almost certainly going to be a protracted partisan resistance within that territory, and without a government in exile to maintain the claim to Ukrainian sovereignty it makes it all the easier for Russia to persuade other countries to view such a movement as illegitimate.

[Nevertopia]

I think Europe will stop caring after they suffer though the winter trying not to freeze to death, Russia will keep using troops from the Middle east and Ukraine will sue for peace, handing over the East and South.

Ukraine is never going to formally cede territory as that would be national suicide. Even if Russia takes over the entire country and installs a puppet government to do it, it will be ignored by everyone outside Russia's entourage of shitty pariah states. Ukraine's UN seat will be retained by a government in exile that will reject all Russian claims, and Russia's puppet regime will never be recognised as legitimate by anyone with anything left to lose in terms of diplomatic relations with the West.

Thank you, I needed some good news today.

[Saiwania]

What are the chances that Belarus' government from before 1919 will ever return to power? If they were back in control of Belarus, would they be on Ukraine's side instead of aligned with Russia? Rada of the Belarusian Democratic Republic supposedly is still active but the oldest government in exile there is.

[Vistulange]

What are the chances that Belarus' government from before 1919 will ever return to power? If they were back in control of Belarus, would they be on Ukraine's side instead of aligned with Russia? Rada of the Belarusian Democratic Republic supposedly is still active but the oldest government in exile there is.

None.

Tsikhanouskaya is more relevant.

[Salus Maior]

What are the chances that Belarus' government from before 1919 will ever return to power? If they were back in control of Belarus, would they be on Ukraine's side instead of aligned with Russia? Rada of the Belarusian Democratic Republic supposedly is still active but the oldest government in exile there is.

What do you have a time machine? How would a government from before 1919 come to power in 2022?

[Mayhem Era France]

What are the chances that Belarus' government from before 1919 will ever return to power? If they were back in control of Belarus, would they be on Ukraine's side instead of aligned with Russia? Rada of the Belarusian Democratic Republic supposedly is still active but the oldest government in exile there is.

What do you have a time machine? How would a government from before 1919 come to power in 2022?

On a side note, if I had a time machine, I can think of far more useful things to do than change Belarussian politics.

[Washington Resistance Army]

What are the chances that Belarus' government from before 1919 will ever return to power? If they were back in control of Belarus, would they be on Ukraine's side instead of aligned with Russia? Rada of the Belarusian Democratic Republic supposedly is still active but the oldest government in exile there is.

What do you have a time machine? How would a government from before 1919 come to power in 2022?

The government of the Belarussian Peoples Republic still exists.

[New Baltenstein]

Russia's loosing manpower and ammo according to British intelligence, the war's basically a war of attrition now, and Ukraine has the west restocking them so, I think Ukraine has a chance

But if Russia does break up, I doubt it'd be as peaceful (well, relatively peaceful) as the USSR

What do you think is the most likely outcome to this conflict? And what do you hope is the best outcome?

For me I think this is going to be Russia's Afghanistan. It'll be a long, protracted war by a well-funded and well-trained people's militia but worse because the government and national army are also actively working against them. Maybe 10-15 years from now Russia will declare that they accomplished their mission by saying they liberated the closest territories near their borders and pulling back before Ukraine retakes them faster than Afghanistan collapsing after the Americans left. And that to me is the best case scenario.

Or maybe Putin dies from whatever Cancer he has and Ukraine lucks out. Russia collapses as all the oligarchs gut the country for all its worth before leaving for greener pastures.

Man why cant we all just get along? How hard is it not to commit war crimes?

Afghanistan was Russia's Afghanistan.

If Ukraine's counter-offensive on Kherson fails (which I believe it will, not because I don't want them to succeed but because I am pessimistic about their chances), both the Southern front and the Donbass front will likely stabilize and become frozen indefinitely. Russia will gradually kick everyone who doesn't agree with the new regime (or make them disappear) out of the occupied territories and they'll become the same tinpot statelets that the separatist regions have been since 2014. The vacated regions will be refilled with ethnic Russians (or other ethnic groups more loyal to Russia than to Ukraine) precisely to avert the danger of an Afghanistan scenario.

Also the state itself is Russia's chiefest oligarch and mafia don now. Oligarchs who leave the sinking ships will have their assets acquired.

[Vassenor]

What do you think is the most likely outcome to this conflict? And what do you hope is the best outcome?

For me I think this is going to be Russia's Afghanistan. It'll be a long, protracted war by a well-funded and well-trained people's militia but worse because the government and national army are also actively working against them. Maybe 10-15 years from now Russia will declare that they accomplished their mission by saying they liberated the closest territories near their borders and pulling back before Ukraine retakes them faster than Afghanistan collapsing after the Americans left. And that to me is the best case scenario.

Or maybe Putin dies from whatever Cancer he has and Ukraine lucks out. Russia collapses as all the oligarchs gut the country for all its worth before leaving for greener pastures.

Man why cant we all just get along? How hard is it not to commit war crimes?

Afghanistan was Russia's Afghanistan.

If Ukraine's counter-offensive on Kherson fails (which I believe it will, not because I don't want them to succeed but because I am pessimistic about their chances), both the Southern front and the Donbass front will likely stabilize and become frozen indefinitely. Russia will gradually kick everyone who doesn't agree with the new regime (or make them disappear) out of the occupied territories and they'll become the same tinpot statelets that the separatist regions have been since 2014. The vacated regions will be refilled with ethnic Russians (or other ethnic groups more loyal to Russia than to Ukraine) precisely to avert the danger of an Afghanistan scenario.

Also the state itself is Russia's chiefest oligarch and mafia don now. Oligarchs who leave the sinking ships will have their assets acquired.

Technically wouldn't it be the Soviet Union's Afghanistan?

[Hurtful Thoughts]

Afghanistan was Russia's Afghanistan.

If Ukraine's counter-offensive on Kherson fails (which I believe it will, not because I don't want them to succeed but because I am pessimistic about their chances), both the Southern front and the Donbass front will likely stabilize and become frozen indefinitely. Russia will gradually kick everyone who doesn't agree with the new regime (or make them disappear) out of the occupied territories and they'll become the same tinpot statelets that the separatist regions have been since 2014. The vacated regions will be refilled with ethnic Russians (or other ethnic groups more loyal to Russia than to Ukraine) precisely to avert the danger of an Afghanistan scenario.

Also the state itself is Russia's chiefest oligarch and mafia don now. Oligarchs who leave the sinking ships will have their assets acquired.

Technically wouldn't it be the Soviet Union's Afghanistan?

Russia still officially claims to be the Soviet Union in the UN.

[Ifreann]

Technically wouldn't it be the Soviet Union's Afghanistan?

Russia still officially claims to be the Soviet Union in the UN.

The Russian Federation is the successor state to the Soviet Union, I really don't think that means they're claiming to still be the Soviet Union.

[Dogmeat]

Russia still officially claims to be the Soviet Union in the UN.

The Russian Federation is the successor state to the Soviet Union, I really don't think that means they're claiming to still be the Soviet Union.

Insert mandatory Simpsons clip here.

[Ifreann]

The Russian Federation is the successor state to the Soviet Union, I really don't think that means they're claiming to still be the Soviet Union.

Insert mandatory Simpsons clip here.

Yes, that's what I wanted you to think.

[Thermodolia]

Russia Admits to Missile Strike on Odessa. Seems like they are really trying to hurt their credibility here

[The Huskar Social Union]

Russia Admits to Missile Strike on Odessa. Seems like they are really trying to hurt their credibility here

At this stage what credibility?

[Thermodolia]

Russia Admits to Missile Strike on Odessa. Seems like they are really trying to hurt their credibility here

At this stage what credibility?

What little credibility they had with the third world

[Absolon-7]

When is the counter-offensive towards Kherson expected to happen, about a month give or take?

[Thomasi]

When is the counter-offensive towards Kherson expected to happen, about a month give or take?

Hopefully soon Russia planning to hold sham referendums and annex the Oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk

[Evil Wolf]

When is the counter-offensive towards Kherson expected to happen, about a month give or take?

Allegedly, it's happening now. Ukrainian officials are publicly asking locals to not make posts about the liberation of any villages or towns in the Kherson area and similarly Ukrainian official news sources are not reporting any gains or losses in the area, even though we know heavy combat is occurring along areas of the front. There are rumors of Russian units being encircled in some areas, but both sides have been silent on the matter.

And we know Russian forces haven't achieved any major victories there because Russian media hasn't said shit. They've just doubled down on talk about holding referendums to illegally annex Ukrainian Territory. Make of that what you will.

[Nevertopia]

For my peace of mind, how do you guys see this conflict playing out? Like should I curb my expectations and accept that Ukraine is probably most likely going to lose? Or is the outcome not so bleak?