Ukrainian War Thread III: The Horrors

[Antipatros]

Erdogan renews threat to 'freeze' Swedish, Finnish NATO bids

This came ahead of his meeting with Putin at the Turkey-Iran-Russia summit in Tehran.

That’s not what he’s doing all he’s saying is that Sweden and Finland need to uphold their end of the deal.

That’s it.

The problem here is that his perception of what the "deal" is doesn't line up with reality, and seems to be likely to change over time. He's said that Sweden has agreed to extradite 73 people, which isn't what they actually agreed to.

Finland and Sweden will address Turkiye's pending deportation or
extradition requests of terror suspects expeditiously and thoroughly,
taking into account information, evidence and intelligence provided by
Turkiye, and establish necessary bilateral legal frameworks to
facilitate extradition and security cooperation with Turkiye, in
accordance with the European Convention on Extradition.

Extradition still needs to go through a legal process. They can't just hand over people because they're on Erdogan's personal blacklist.

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

Apparently Herr Lavrov wants to go to Kyiv again.

[Perikuresu]

EU just started negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia for membership, (Albania's gonna have a quicker start than N. Macedonia because the latter has to change their constitution to include an enshrinement of a Bulgarian minority to appease you know who) I wonder if they're gonna speed up negotiations with the four western Balkan states (+ Montenegro and Serbia) in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the need for a more united Europe.

Obviously, the four Western Balkan states aren't gonna achieve membership anytime soon, but it could be far more quicker, Montenegro and Serbia was forecasted to join the EU by 2025 (but that prediction was made years ago)

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

EU just started negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia for membership, (Albania's gonna have a quicker start than N. Macedonia because the latter has to change their constitution to include an enshrinement of a Bulgarian minority to appease you know who) I wonder if they're gonna speed up negotiations with the four western Balkan states (+ Montenegro and Serbia) in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the need for a more united Europe.

Obviously, the four Western Balkan states aren't gonna achieve membership anytime soon, but it could be far more quicker, Montenegro and Serbia was forecasted to join the EU by 2025 (but that prediction was made years ago)

Serbia be malding

[Vistulange]

EU just started negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia for membership, (Albania's gonna have a quicker start than N. Macedonia because the latter has to change their constitution to include an enshrinement of a Bulgarian minority to appease you know who) I wonder if they're gonna speed up negotiations with the four western Balkan states (+ Montenegro and Serbia) in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the need for a more united Europe.

Obviously, the four Western Balkan states aren't gonna achieve membership anytime soon, but it could be far more quicker, Montenegro and Serbia was forecasted to join the EU by 2025 (but that prediction was made years ago)

I'm out of the loop—is Serbia even a candidate? As in, seriously a candidate? Since, you know, Turkey is also a "candidate", but...

[The Huskar Social Union]

EU just started negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia for membership, (Albania's gonna have a quicker start than N. Macedonia because the latter has to change their constitution to include an enshrinement of a Bulgarian minority to appease you know who) I wonder if they're gonna speed up negotiations with the four western Balkan states (+ Montenegro and Serbia) in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the need for a more united Europe.

Obviously, the four Western Balkan states aren't gonna achieve membership anytime soon, but it could be far more quicker, Montenegro and Serbia was forecasted to join the EU by 2025 (but that prediction was made years ago)

I'm out of the loop—is Serbia even a candidate? As in, seriously a candidate? Since, you know, Turkey is also a "candidate", but...

It became a candidate in 2012 iirc and they applied in 2009 but i dont think the Serbs care that much about joining any more.

[Thermodolia]

That’s not what he’s doing all he’s saying is that Sweden and Finland need to uphold their end of the deal.

That’s it.

The problem here is that his perception of what the "deal" is doesn't line up with reality, and seems to be likely to change over time. He's said that Sweden has agreed to extradite 73 people, which isn't what they actually agreed to.

Finland and Sweden will address Turkiye's pending deportation or
extradition requests of terror suspects expeditiously and thoroughly,
taking into account information, evidence and intelligence provided by
Turkiye, and establish necessary bilateral legal frameworks to
facilitate extradition and security cooperation with Turkiye, in
accordance with the European Convention on Extradition.

Extradition still needs to go through a legal process. They can't just hand over people because they're on Erdogan's personal blacklist.

He’s also trying to look tough for his election next year. His poll numbers are quite frankly, shit.

He’s highly likely to lose the presidency. He’s trying to get people to support him by saying things like that.

That’s all he’s doing. He’s not an idiot, he knows that extraditions take time. He’s just throwing the reminder out there

[Vistulange]

The problem here is that his perception of what the "deal" is doesn't line up with reality, and seems to be likely to change over time. He's said that Sweden has agreed to extradite 73 people, which isn't what they actually agreed to.



Extradition still needs to go through a legal process. They can't just hand over people because they're on Erdogan's personal blacklist.

He’s also trying to look tough for his election next year. His poll numbers are quite frankly, shit.

He’s highly likely to lose the presidency. He’s trying to get people to support him by saying things like that.

That’s all he’s doing. He’s not an idiot, he knows that extraditions take time. He’s just throwing the reminder out there

He's not an idiot, but I personally know that he has been gravely misinformed on at least a few issues (that are completely irrelevant to the entire Ukraine/NATO/Sweden-Finland thing; they're just things I know of) and he does suffer from the typical authoritarian leader syndrome. So, while he's not stupid (you can't be an anti-systemic conservative in Turkey and politically survive for two decades if you're stupid) he may well be under the illusion that yes, Sweden and Finland will indeed extradite such and such to Turkey.

Does this invalidate what you said? No, it doesn't—I agree that this is at least in some part a publicity stunt, but there's also at least a bit of serious security concerns going on there. What foreign observers generally don't see—very understandably so—is just how incapable the Turkish state apparatus has gotten over the last six years. We're talking about a Ministry of Justice that isn't seeing very ordinary cases through, or day-to-day trials, because they're waiting for the elections to pass, so they know who's going to be in charge.

Right now, probably only two or three ministries in Turkey are doing their jobs: the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (and that's constantly being undermined by Erdoğan, Çavuşoğlu, and until some time ago, Altun; it's one of the holdouts of the old Kemalists, because the MFA was notoriously difficult to purge), the Treasury because it kind of needs to function, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs because it's Soylu at the helm there. Otherwise, everything and everything is—for practical purposes—run through the Presidency, through Kalın and Altun, and Erdoğan himself depending on what he chooses to micromanage on that particular day.

What I'm trying to say is, even if Turkey has a solid case to extradite PKK or PKK-affiliated folks in Scandinavia, the government won't be able to type up any sort of proper, formal indictment, accusation, or compile the sort of evidence required for the Swedes to extradite because the competent folks were either Gülenists or Kemalists, and neither group is in vogue nowadays. The AKP has a dire shortage of capable personnel, one that is felt daily in Turkey, and for that reason, it's not going to happen. Never mind the Swedes' sympathy towards the PKK; it's a problem on our end, you don't even have to get to the Swedes for problems to arise in the process.

[Port Caverton]

Russia declares expanded war goals beyond Ukraine's Donbas

Russia is imperialist, more news at 11.

[Phoenii]

my last post for this forum will be here.. for the after, three hurrah for kherson!

[Fourth Jellian Republic]

I wonder how they will spin their “expanded operational aria” to places like India.

[Perikuresu]

CIA says that's no intelligence that Putin is in bad health

Putin's still kicking, just not the bucket

[The Land of the Ephyral]

I wonder how they will spin their “expanded operational aria” to places like India.

There's a lot of ground between Russia and India that Russia would absolutely fail to conquer. They're not exactly doing top quality with Ukraine. I would've expected them to just stick with the Donbass to try and save face and actually have a defined victory.

[Fartsniffage]

Russia's justice ministry has gone to court in a bid to shut down the Russian branch of the Jewish Agency, which organises Jewish immigration to Israel.

The case at Moscow's Basmanny District Court concerns unspecified legal breaches. A hearing is set for 28 July.

Israeli media has reported a surge in the numbers of Russian Jews arriving to settle in Israel this year.

An Israeli minister condemned the court case, seeing it as punishment for Israel's stance on the Ukraine war.

Nachman Shai, Israel's diaspora affairs minister, said "Russian Jews will not be held hostage by the war in Ukraine" and "the attempt to punish the Jewish Agency for Israel's position on the war is pathetic and insulting".

Israel has not joined the far-reaching international sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

But in April Russia protested after then Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid - now interim prime minister - accused Russia of war crimes. Mr Lapid defended Israel's vote to suspend Russia from the United Nations Human Rights Council.

The following month Israel was outraged when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler "had Jewish blood". Russia falsely portrays Ukraine's government as "Nazi", yet President Volodymyr Zelensky is ethnically Jewish.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62254595

[Hispida]

Russia's justice ministry has gone to court in a bid to shut down the Russian branch of the Jewish Agency, which organises Jewish immigration to Israel.

The case at Moscow's Basmanny District Court concerns unspecified legal breaches. A hearing is set for 28 July.

Israeli media has reported a surge in the numbers of Russian Jews arriving to settle in Israel this year.

An Israeli minister condemned the court case, seeing it as punishment for Israel's stance on the Ukraine war.

Nachman Shai, Israel's diaspora affairs minister, said "Russian Jews will not be held hostage by the war in Ukraine" and "the attempt to punish the Jewish Agency for Israel's position on the war is pathetic and insulting".

Israel has not joined the far-reaching international sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

But in April Russia protested after then Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid - now interim prime minister - accused Russia of war crimes. Mr Lapid defended Israel's vote to suspend Russia from the United Nations Human Rights Council.

The following month Israel was outraged when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler "had Jewish blood". Russia falsely portrays Ukraine's government as "Nazi", yet President Volodymyr Zelensky is ethnically Jewish.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62254595

"Have you ever heard the tragedy of Darth Moscow the Wise? I thought not. It's not a story the West would tell you. It's a socialist legend. Darth Moscow was a Proletariat Hero, so powerful and wise in the ways of international democracy he could manipulate the working classes of the world into anti-fascism. He had such a knowledge of anti-fascism that he could even keep the regimes he cared about from collapsing. The international democratic camp is a pathway to many abilities some consider to be unnatural. He became so powerful… the only thing he was afraid of was losing his power, which eventually, of course, he did. Unfortunately, he taught his successor states everything he knew, then his successors killed him in his sleep. Ironic. He could save others from fascism, but not himself."

[Ifreann]

Russia's justice ministry has gone to court in a bid to shut down the Russian branch of the Jewish Agency, which organises Jewish immigration to Israel.

The case at Moscow's Basmanny District Court concerns unspecified legal breaches. A hearing is set for 28 July.

Israeli media has reported a surge in the numbers of Russian Jews arriving to settle in Israel this year.

An Israeli minister condemned the court case, seeing it as punishment for Israel's stance on the Ukraine war.

Nachman Shai, Israel's diaspora affairs minister, said "Russian Jews will not be held hostage by the war in Ukraine" and "the attempt to punish the Jewish Agency for Israel's position on the war is pathetic and insulting".

Israel has not joined the far-reaching international sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

But in April Russia protested after then Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid - now interim prime minister - accused Russia of war crimes. Mr Lapid defended Israel's vote to suspend Russia from the United Nations Human Rights Council.

The following month Israel was outraged when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler "had Jewish blood". Russia falsely portrays Ukraine's government as "Nazi", yet President Volodymyr Zelensky is ethnically Jewish.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62254595

I think I've seen this one before, next is the part with the plagues.

[Minata]

i just saw putin's justification of war with ukraine a couple of weeks ago and it is terrible, it looks like that could have worked in like 1830, like "one time it was ours and now we are getting it back" like what ?!

Russia's just greedy.

[Tinhampton]

I'm Cousethii 2, the one who asked a lot of questions about the EU's attitude to credit rating agencies. (Thank you, Picairn.)

This is the BBC's liveblog on a grain deal which will be signed in about 15 minutes, by which Ukraine will once again be able to export grain via their Black Sea ports. El Beeb has been repeatedly pressing the point that Ukraine will not directly sign this deal alongside Russia, forcing Moscow to sign a "mirror deal" - which leaves me to ask if this has happened in any context before (not just Russia/Ukraine) and why Ukraine is sufficiently disinclined to not want to do this.

[Khurkhogur]

I'm Cousethii 2, the one who asked a lot of questions about the EU's attitude to credit rating agencies. (Thank you, Picairn.)
This is the BBC's liveblog on a grain deal which will be signed in about 15 minutes, by which Ukraine will once again be able to export grain via their Black Sea ports. El Beeb has been repeatedly pressing the point that Ukraine will not directly sign this deal alongside Russia, forcing Moscow to sign a "mirror deal" - which leaves me to ask if this has happened in any context before (not just Russia/Ukraine) and why Ukraine is sufficiently disinclined to not want to do this.

I've said this before but I want to say it again - this is the most confusing thing about Russia's approach to the current situation. There was a period of time pre-2014 where Putin wanted to be seen to contribute to international stability/multilateralism etc.
But it seems it hasn't sunk in for the Russian state that there is no going back, Russia is fundamentally at odds with the rules-based international order now. Allowing grain to be exported through the Black Sea will provide a baseline level of stability that benefits the international order that Russia is fighting against. What Russia should be doing is keeping grain from leaving the Black Sea to ratchet up pressure on the global economy.
The only way this deal makes sense is if Russia traded it for a Turkish guarantee not to accept Finland/Sweden into NATO, but that doesn't seem likely at all. Turkey doesn't have much to gain from such a deal.

[Spirit of Hope]

I'm Cousethii 2, the one who asked a lot of questions about the EU's attitude to credit rating agencies. (Thank you, Picairn.)
This is the BBC's liveblog on a grain deal which will be signed in about 15 minutes, by which Ukraine will once again be able to export grain via their Black Sea ports. El Beeb has been repeatedly pressing the point that Ukraine will not directly sign this deal alongside Russia, forcing Moscow to sign a "mirror deal" - which leaves me to ask if this has happened in any context before (not just Russia/Ukraine) and why Ukraine is sufficiently disinclined to not want to do this.

I've said this before but I want to say it again - this is the most confusing thing about Russia's approach to the current situation. There was a period of time pre-2014 where Putin wanted to be seen to contribute to international stability/multilateralism etc.
But it seems it hasn't sunk in for the Russian state that there is no going back, Russia is fundamentally at odds with the rules-based international order now. Allowing grain to be exported through the Black Sea will provide a baseline level of stability that benefits the international order that Russia is fighting against. What Russia should be doing is keeping grain from leaving the Black Sea to ratchet up pressure on the global economy.
The only way this deal makes sense is if Russia traded it for a Turkish guarantee not to accept Finland/Sweden into NATO, but that doesn't seem likely at all. Turkey doesn't have much to gain from such a deal.

My guess is that Russia is doing this deal to somewhat lower the cost of food to non western countries, which combined with increased energy prices, is the big hurt that non western countries are feeling as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia can then also sell its energy to these countries, likely at somewhat of a discount, further lowering the pain these countries feel from the invasion. Combined this makes it less likely for non western nations to join in on sanctions and condemnations of Russia for its invasion.

Turkey gains on two fronts, for the domestic audience Erdoğan looks like a big shot deal maker and it helps fight Turkeys sky high inflation, since he is heading into an election that doesn't look good he wants some wins. For an international audience Turkey is the one who brought the parties together to solve one of the main issues from the invasion, boosting Turkey's soft power, especially since a lot of Mediterranean, African, and Middle Eastern countries were the ones who relied on Ukraine for grains.

Ukraine of course gains in that it can sell its agricultural products and keep a major part of its economy operating and brining in revenue for the war effort.

[Khurkhogur]

I've said this before but I want to say it again - this is the most confusing thing about Russia's approach to the current situation. There was a period of time pre-2014 where Putin wanted to be seen to contribute to international stability/multilateralism etc.
But it seems it hasn't sunk in for the Russian state that there is no going back, Russia is fundamentally at odds with the rules-based international order now. Allowing grain to be exported through the Black Sea will provide a baseline level of stability that benefits the international order that Russia is fighting against. What Russia should be doing is keeping grain from leaving the Black Sea to ratchet up pressure on the global economy.
The only way this deal makes sense is if Russia traded it for a Turkish guarantee not to accept Finland/Sweden into NATO, but that doesn't seem likely at all. Turkey doesn't have much to gain from such a deal.

My guess is that Russia is doing this deal to somewhat lower the cost of food to non western countries, which combined with increased energy prices, is the big hurt that non western countries are feeling as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia can then also sell its energy to these countries, likely at somewhat of a discount, further lowering the pain these countries feel from the invasion. Combined this makes it less likely for non western nations to join in on sanctions and condemnations of Russia for its invasion.
Turkey gains on two fronts, for the domestic audience Erdoğan looks like a big shot deal maker and it helps fight Turkeys sky high inflation, since he is heading into an election that doesn't look good he wants some wins. For an international audience Turkey is the one who brought the parties together to solve one of the main issues from the invasion, boosting Turkey's soft power, especially since a lot of Mediterranean, African, and Middle Eastern countries were the ones who relied on Ukraine for grains.
Ukraine of course gains in that it can sell its agricultural products and keep a major part of its economy operating and brining in revenue for the war effort.

Non-western countries are not going to get involved in the politics of this war and even if they did, they would not be able to change much. How much trade do you think Russia does with African or South American countries on average? These countries have very little influence on the situation.
The non-western countries that Russia is trading with are happy to work with Russia as it is. Rather than sanctioning Russia, India decided to stop exports of its grain instead. That shows you their thinking about the situation - they're not going to take sides.
This is why I'm saying Russia is making a nonsensical decision. It should have no real interest in lowering the pain for non-western countries. This is just a holdover from Soviet foreign policy which tried to portray Russia as a liberator from western imperialism and exploitation by granting aid, education, and military support for nonaligned countries. That's not viable anymore, and on top of everything Ukraine stands to gain a lot from this (which means Russia is completely shooting itself in the foot). What Russia should be doing is trying to trigger global unrest/a migrant crisis to destabilize global capitalism. That would actually be in their interest.
Also I'm not saying Turkey doesn't stand to gain from this, I'm saying they don't stand to gain enough to make any real concessions to Russia. And Russia should absolutely be asking for concessions to do this deal (yet they're not). Turkey letting Russia influence their foreign policy for a few minor economic/international wins would be pretty measly. Neither party should be that interested in a deal if the actors were 'rational' (which of course they're not, and rationality is a problematic concept anyway).

[El Lazaro]

I mean back in those days the communists tended to be agaisnt war with the Axis until the Germans invaded the USSR.

That period between 1939 and 1940 when 90% of the world's communist parties suddenly wanted peace with Nazi Germany was very funny.

If they could manage that when Hitler put “I’ll kill all the damned Jewish Bolsheviks” in every speech, I’m sure Putin’s “Lenin just wasn’t mean enough to ethnic minorities” is more than acceptable.

[Spirit of Hope]

My guess is that Russia is doing this deal to somewhat lower the cost of food to non western countries, which combined with increased energy prices, is the big hurt that non western countries are feeling as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia can then also sell its energy to these countries, likely at somewhat of a discount, further lowering the pain these countries feel from the invasion. Combined this makes it less likely for non western nations to join in on sanctions and condemnations of Russia for its invasion.
Turkey gains on two fronts, for the domestic audience Erdoğan looks like a big shot deal maker and it helps fight Turkeys sky high inflation, since he is heading into an election that doesn't look good he wants some wins. For an international audience Turkey is the one who brought the parties together to solve one of the main issues from the invasion, boosting Turkey's soft power, especially since a lot of Mediterranean, African, and Middle Eastern countries were the ones who relied on Ukraine for grains.
Ukraine of course gains in that it can sell its agricultural products and keep a major part of its economy operating and brining in revenue for the war effort.

Non-western countries are not going to get involved in the politics of this war and even if they did, they would not be able to change much. How much trade do you think Russia does with African or South American countries on average? These countries have very little influence on the situation.
The non-western countries that Russia is trading with are happy to work with Russia as it is. Rather than sanctioning Russia, India decided to stop exports of its grain instead. That shows you their thinking about the situation - they're not going to take sides.
This is why I'm saying Russia is making a nonsensical decision. It should have no real interest in lowering the pain for non-western countries. This is just a holdover from Soviet foreign policy which tried to portray Russia as a liberator from western imperialism and exploitation by granting aid, education, and military support for nonaligned countries. That's not viable anymore, and on top of everything Ukraine stands to gain a lot from this (which means Russia is completely shooting itself in the foot). What Russia should be doing is trying to trigger global unrest/a migrant crisis to destabilize global capitalism. That would actually be in their interest.
Also I'm not saying Turkey doesn't stand to gain from this, I'm saying they don't stand to gain enough to make any real concessions to Russia. And Russia should absolutely be asking for concessions to do this deal (yet they're not). Turkey letting Russia influence their foreign policy for a few minor economic/international wins would be pretty measly. Neither party should be that interested in a deal if the actors were 'rational' (which of course they're not, and rationality is a problematic concept anyway).

Russia had trade worth 30+ billion dollars in 2021 with Africa and South East Asia, which is only set to grow as Russia faces sanctions from the west. On top of which a number of non western countries reliant on Ukranian grain are members of OPEC, Russia doesn't want to piss off the other countries that it works with to control oil prices. That India had to block shipping grain is a sign of high grain prices in India, India will certainly be happy if grain and fertilizer can be shipped lowering those prices.

Turkey isn't letting Russia influence its foreign policy, Turkey doesn't give up anything but gets to be seen as the key party to getting grain shipments moving. Which is a big deal domestically for a president looking at bad polling, high inflation, and disruptions to its economy from a war in the region.

Maybe everyone is acting stupid or irrational, or maybe you just don't understand why leaders are making the decisions they are.

[Perikuresu]

Advisor to Ukraine's President warns Russian troops to leave Kherson

(Yes, I used google translate)

Antonivsky Bridge is a "gesture of good will" that is currently relevant. A gesture that says: Russia, it's time for the troops to voluntarily leave Kherson. Otherwise - constant cotton, night terrors, panic attacks and, as a result, "HIMARS-enuresis". The range of possibilities is becoming narrower, as is the accuracy of the Ukrainian artillery fire.

It's weird Ukraine seems oddly public about it's potential Southern offensive, they've already announced/foreshadowed it, warned civilians to leave (which is understandable) and now this

[Khurkhogur]

Russia had trade worth 30+ billion dollars in 2021 with Africa and South East Asia, which is only set to grow as Russia faces sanctions from the west. On top of which a number of non western countries reliant on Ukranian grain are members of OPEC, Russia doesn't want to piss off the other countries that it works with to control oil prices. That India had to block shipping grain is a sign of high grain prices in India, India will certainly be happy if grain and fertilizer can be shipped lowering those prices.

The total value of Russia's exports in 2019 was 426 billion dollars according to a research from Michigan State University (first result on google). 30 billion isn't a drop in the bucket, but it's not hugely significant either. And that trade doesn't look to be drying up anyway, most unaligned countries are still not taking sides.
Also, OPEC and India weren't getting in Russia's way as it is. Russia shouldn't have taken a measure to appease them unless it seemed that they were moving to cooperate with the US (which they weren't). So the argument you're trying to make doesn't really make sense. If OPEC had started moving to lower oil/gas prices or India started criticizing Russia more vocally, then this sort of thing would have made sense. But they weren't doing that.

Turkey isn't letting Russia influence its foreign policy, Turkey doesn't give up anything but gets to be seen as the key party to getting grain shipments moving. Which is a big deal domestically for a president looking at bad polling, high inflation, and disruptions to its economy from a war in the region.

That's what I'm saying. If Russia was asking for concessions (as it probably should be), then Turkey probably wouldn't have any interest in doing the deal because it wouldn't be worth it. As it stands though, Turkey won't have to concede anything and Russia is basically giving away valuable leverage.

Maybe everyone is acting stupid or irrational, or maybe you just don't understand why leaders are making the decisions they are.

Did you miss the part where I said "rationality is a problematic concept"?