Taiwan Invasion?: Is United States Going to War With China?

[Ayytaly]

War with China plays right into Russia's hands. They'll make themselves the only available provider of energy as the rest of Europe are stuck deciding whether they should help the U.S. or stay and protect Ukraine. Predictably Russia will remain neutral as they would rather see China weakened enough that they lose power and abandon any plans to invade Siberia.

Invade Siberia? Russia is one of China's best friend. Why the fuck would they jepodise that?

Soviet-Sino border conflicts sting hard to this day, mate

And for what? What could Siberia provide China?

Gas, territory, military bases, people to indoctrinate and oppress, etc.

[Willtime]

Why not leave Taiwan as an independent state?or give it back to Japan rule

Do they really dare to do that？

[Bombadil]

Not any time soon

We can be pretty clear on the timeline, they want reunification before 2049, the 100 year anniversary of the CCP in power. Xi Jinping definitely wants it to be part of his legacy. Given he's 70, it will likely be in the next 10-15 years time.

Unless of course China changes so much that Taiwan happily reunifies but that's not going to happen under Xi.

[Willtime]

Soviet-Sino border conflicts sting hard to this day, mate

Right.
Many Chinese are afraid of Russia because of its ambition and power.
But……many Chinese are also afraid of the United States and EU. These people remember what happened when Russia applied to join the western world and what would happen to China if Russia fell.
Russia is not the best friend,but others just do not want to be friend at all.

Some people say this is because China has not learned enough from the western world.
Some people cannot forget what happened to Russia.

[Leego217]

Well, the truth is that most of the people who want to unify Taiwan by force are young people on the Internet, but my teacher and I have analyzed the factors and it doesn't sound like it, but who knows? Although I look forward to Taiwan's return soon, my teacher told me that it will take at least a decade, if at all. Of course, this is just what I know. Oh, sorry, the translator might not be quite right. I'm not really good with this either...

[Araznan]

No.

Because America isn't about to kick it off, and if China were to at this juncture, they would not win. Ask again in ten years.

(In the unlikely case that America/NATO actually engages against the Russians instead of just giving Ukraine cheerleading and ATGMs, all bets are off.)

Well What About China Invading Taiwan, There able to ''Kick it off'' as you say, but they might not have the strength to Continue It.

[Cisairse]

War between the United States and China is simply inevitable. Whatever flashpoint powder keg geopolitical push-button is chosen to initiate that war when it is time to do is strictly less relevant than what comes after.

[Thermodolia]

Not any time soon

We can be pretty clear on the timeline, they want reunification before 2049, the 100 year anniversary of the CCP in power. Xi Jinping definitely wants it to be part of his legacy. Given he's 70, it will likely be in the next 10-15 years time.

Unless of course China changes so much that Taiwan happily reunifies but that's not going to happen under Xi.

10-15 years is still not anytime soon

[Forensic Reality]

Something to consider when talking about Putin, and Xi, and their individual motivation is the very different scales of ambition.

For now, Putin wants to be Peter the Great expanding the Russian Empire around the Black Sea.

Xi has adopted the dream of old that goes back to the days of imperial China when the Emperor was referred to as the Prince of Heaven, because the idea has always been to expand Chinese hegemony to include everything under heaven.
While the global dream is now mostly economic in nature, Xi does have considerable geographical ambition that goes well beyond Taiwan if he gets those deep water ports.
The CCP will finally have a proper base of operation worth expanding its navy and its operational range.

At some point, Xi's ambitions would step on Putin's somewhere in the east of Russia that may spill over into further destabilizing the Korea/Japan paradigm.

[Big Bad Blue]

No. /thread

[Hatterleigh]

USA is too afraid to even recognize "Chinese Taipei", and economic sanctions on them would hurt us more than them. You're out of your mind if you think we'd go to war over it when we haven't even done so for Ukraine.

[Sungoldy-China]

The point is whether China will think that it can never be solved without a military solution.

An important reason for Russia's use of force against Ukraine is that Russia's decline is much faster than that of the United States，
Time is not on Russia's side.

So is time on China's side?
Will China think the US will once again become a global empire?

America as a global empire always use these petty conflicts to suppress regional hegemons.

[Adamede]

USA is too afraid to even recognize "Chinese Taipei", and economic sanctions on them would hurt us more than them. You're out of your mind if you think we'd go to war over it when we haven't even done so for Ukraine.

Thing is the US has a much larger invest interest in Taiwans defacto independence then it does with Ukraine. Taiwan is the first line of defense against Chinese expansion into the Pacific, which America wants to keeps its hold over for the foreseeable future.

[Awesomeland]

Thing is the US has a much larger invest interest in Taiwans defacto independence then it does with Ukraine. Taiwan is the first line of defense against Chinese expansion into the Pacific, which America wants to keeps its hold over for the foreseeable future.

Plus there are lots of other nations that would be directly threatened in this way. Taiwan functioning as a bulwark in the Pacific is of major strategic interest to basically every nation in the region, given that China is not exactly winning friends there. In contrast, Ukraine is far less so of a vital strategic interest and many nations in the area would actually benefit in the event of its fall to Russia. Much of Europe, for instance, would likely benefit from this as it would cut out the middleman to Russian gas and oil. It's why initial response to this was so tepid and remains indecisive and wishy-washy.

[Novus America]

The point is whether China will think that it can never be solved without a military solution.

An important reason for Russia's use of force against Ukraine is that Russia's decline is much faster than that of the United States，
Time is not on Russia's side.

So is time on China's side?
Will China think the US will once again become a global empire?

America as a global empire always use these petty conflicts to suppress regional hegemons.

Well it can be solved without force. The PRC could recognize it as independent. The PRC could just not recognize it but pledge never to attack it. The PRC could collapse. The PRC could reform into a federal and democratic state Taiwan might actually want to be part of.

The PRC is the sole problem.

The issue is that there is no way to bring it under Xi’s despised jackboot without force.
Which means so long as the PRC insists that bringing it under Xi’s jackboot is the only “solution” than yes force is the only way to achieve that evil aim.

Hence the problem.
Hence war is quite possible because the PRC is pushing a “solution” that will cause war and refusing to compromise on that except in terms of the timeframe.

Time is not on the PRC’s “side” here either in terms the chance of them taking Taiwan without violence keeps decreasing. Each year the people of Taiwan become more supportive of independence. Unification with China only has substantial support amongst the older generations and even they overwhelmingly only want unification under a different government, not the PRC.

Plus the PRC is facing a long term demographic crisis and declining competitiveness in terms of labor cost, plus rising opposition in the US and EU.

But the problem does certainly have a solution not requiring war with Taiwan, the PRC needs to be reformed or dissolved from within. That is the only peaceful way out. The PRC needs to change.

[Novus America]

Thing is the US has a much larger invest interest in Taiwans defacto independence then it does with Ukraine. Taiwan is the first line of defense against Chinese expansion into the Pacific, which America wants to keeps its hold over for the foreseeable future.

Plus there are lots of other nations that would be directly threatened in this way. Taiwan functioning as a bulwark in the Pacific is of major strategic interest to basically every nation in the region, given that China is not exactly winning friends there. In contrast, Ukraine is far less so of a vital strategic interest and many nations in the area would actually benefit in the event of its fall to Russia. Much of Europe, for instance, would likely benefit from this as it would cut out the middleman to Russian gas and oil. It's why initial response to this was so tepid and remains indecisive and wishy-washy.

Japan has also indicated it would view an attack on Taiwan as essentially an attack on Japan as well. Which would bring the US in.

There is a much higher likelihood of it becoming a wider war than Ukraine.

Hopefully the PRC stops their imperialism, the PRC is the issue. They are the only ones claiming the right to fire the first shot.

[Araznan]

Thing is the US has a much larger invest interest in Taiwans defacto independence then it does with Ukraine. Taiwan is the first line of defense against Chinese expansion into the Pacific, which America wants to keeps its hold over for the foreseeable future.

Plus there are lots of other nations that would be directly threatened in this way. Taiwan functioning as a bulwark in the Pacific is of major strategic interest to basically every nation in the region, given that China is not exactly winning friends there. In contrast, Ukraine is far less so of a vital strategic interest and many nations in the area would actually benefit in the event of its fall to Russia. Much of Europe, for instance, would likely benefit from this as it would cut out the middleman to Russian gas and oil. It's why initial response to this was so tepid and remains indecisive and wishy-washy.

Nations would benefit from The fall Of Ukraine?, if ukraine falls russia comes even closer to Nato and would Threaten Eastern Nato Members.
That means if Russia Wants to invade them, or have more influence there it would be easier without Ukraine blocking russia from Eastern europe.

[Araznan]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-mili ... it-taiwan/

[Fourth Jellian Republic]

China is learning from the war in Ukraine.
If they invade Taiwan, it will need to be a blitz. No long protracted war.
And a blitz on a heavily fortified island is going to be exceedingly difficult, and near impossible to keep secret.

Because of a clear build up and Biden’s expressed commitment to Taiwan, the US would have a chance to fortify the island more.

All this means that the likelyhood of a confrontation and thus war will get higher, and the cost of war will get higher, once China initiates preparations.

[Australian rePublic]

China is learning from the war in Ukraine.
If they invade Taiwan, it will need to be a blitz. No long protracted war.
And a blitz on a heavily fortified island is going to be exceedingly difficult, and near impossible to keep secret.

Because of a clear build up and Biden’s expressed commitment to Taiwan, the US would have a chance to fortify the island more.

All this means that the likelyhood of a confrontation and thus war will get higher, and the cost of war will get higher, once China initiates preparations.

Even if successful, a blitz wouldn't win China too many friends, especially in the Pacific, where they're trying to expand their sphere of influence

[Pangurstan]

There won't be a war between america and china because america is already a chinese colony ruled by xi jinping through the 5g covid mind control implants in joe biden.

[Australiem]

I hope the USA doesn't go to war, or else Australia will be having to come in as well since we are allies and I would prefer it if Australia or America doesn't go into another dead on arrival war like the middle east or Vietnam.

[Fourth Jellian Republic]

USA is too afraid to even recognize "Chinese Taipei", and economic sanctions on them would hurt us more than them. You're out of your mind if you think we'd go to war over it when we haven't even done so for Ukraine.

Biden has publicly committed to defending Taiwan.

[Fourth Jellian Republic]

China is learning from the war in Ukraine.
If they invade Taiwan, it will need to be a blitz. No long protracted war.
And a blitz on a heavily fortified island is going to be exceedingly difficult, and near impossible to keep secret.

Because of a clear build up and Biden’s expressed commitment to Taiwan, the US would have a chance to fortify the island more.

All this means that the likelyhood of a confrontation and thus war will get higher, and the cost of war will get higher, once China initiates preparations.

Even if successful, a blitz wouldn't win China too many friends, especially in the Pacific, where they're trying to expand their sphere of influence

Similar things have been said about Russia, but that did not prevent war.

[Zilam]

War benefits no one at this point. Tensions will remain high, but as long as both side has much more to lose than to gain, relations will just remain tense.