Ukrainian Invasion Thread II: Sunrise on the Dnieper

[Kowani]

WWIII starts and the whole human race can kiss its sorry ass goodbye.

No. While we would see huge portions of the Northern hemisphere devastated if we some how tried to go full Napoleon followed by strategic nuclear war, it would not kill the human race.

Small note: the collapse of the world economy and most global institutions would also devastate the global south as well

[Adamede]

Again I’d like to not die a virgin neet

Volunteer so you'll only die a virgin, it's pretty simple

True, but I got a feeling I’d be more of a liability than an asset in a firefight.

[Adamede]

No. While we would see huge portions of the Northern hemisphere devastated if we some how tried to go full Napoleon followed by strategic nuclear war, it would not kill the human race.

Small note: the collapse of the world economy and most global institutions would also devastate the global south as well

Yah but that’s still better than the entire northern hemisphere getting a nice soft green glow.

[El Lazaro]

It'd get nuked.

Okay.

After paying attention to this situation I’ve been trying think of a way we can stop the Russians without nukes, because sanctions don’t work and neither does revoking western companies. The only option is war but I can’t seem to find a scenario that doesn’t result in the annihilation of Earth.

Nobody will use nukes unless their own territory is being invaded. Unless the Kremlin has relocated to Kyiv, I really doubt Putin and everyone in his chain of command is going to throw a nuclear temper tantrum in the unlikely scenario of limited NATO intervention.

On the other hand, sanctions are working. At this rate, there's a very real chance that Russia cannot continue the war, it's more of a matter of whether the Ukrainian government falls before or after all pockets are emptied and Putin's war chest is full of nothing.

Again, Russia has already lost, the question is now whether Ukraine will win. NATO must continue to supply Ukraine with arms and aid to increase the odds of Ukraine surviving.

[Asherahan]

So many opinions on Ukrainian fate. So, in short, what should I expect as Ukrainian?

No one knows frankly. No bullshit things are probably going to get a lot worse and the war isn’t over anytime soon.

However Ukraine will survive.

It won't do not delude yourself that Ukraine will survive.

[Chan Island]

Small note: the collapse of the world economy and most global institutions would also devastate the global south as well

Yah but that’s still better than the entire northern hemisphere getting a nice soft green glow.

What a comforting thought. Hey, all of Europe, Russia and North America will cease to exist, but it’s okay because a couple million people might survive the global famines and ecological collapse.

Let’s not go down that road if at all possible.

[Novus America]

After paying attention to this situation I’ve been trying think of a way we can stop the Russians without nukes, because sanctions don’t work and neither does revoking western companies. The only option is war but I can’t seem to find a scenario that doesn’t result in the annihilation of Earth.

Maybe because anything further than what we're doing now will result in nuclear armageddon. And in the grand scheme of things we're doing a lot right now. The sanctions for once actually are destroying the Russian economy, we're arming the Ukrainians out the ears, and the bear is for the time being bogged down in an unpopular war that they weren't prepared for. Consider that the solution for the conflict is not INTERVENTION NOW!!! and that this damned war will require time to resolve, as horrible as that is considering all the innocent blood that Russia has on its hands.

The first sentence is patently ridiculous. Come on. It is not like doing something further means everyone shoots strategic nukes for the lols. GI Joe Retaliation is not a good depiction of anything remotely close to reality.

There is a lot more we could do short of going full strategic nuclear weapons without logic or reason. (things that movie obviously lacked).

The question is not whether or not we could do more without it happening, the question is how much we should do, if any.

[Novus America]

No. While we would see huge portions of the Northern hemisphere devastated if we some how tried to go full Napoleon followed by strategic nuclear war, it would not kill the human race.

Small note: the collapse of the world economy and most global institutions would also devastate the global south as well

I did say I would expect millions in those areas to die of disease/starvation.

They would certainly be hurt. But they would not be annihilated.

[Gravlen]

War crime: Amnesty International investigation shows Russian ‘dumb bomb’ air strike killed 47 civilians in Chernihiv

A Russian air strike that reportedly killed 47 civilians in the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv may constitute a war crime, Amnesty International said today following an investigation into the attack.

At approximately 12.15pm on Thursday 3 March, the small public square formed by Chernihiv’s Viacheslava Chornovola and Kruhova streets was hit by multiple bombs, killing civilians and severely damaging nearby buildings.

Based on new interviews and the verification and analysis of video evidence, Amnesty International’s Crisis Response team has concluded the attack was mostly likely a Russian air strike in which at least eight unguided aerial bombs – known as ‘dumb bombs’ – were used.

Amnesty International was not able to identify a legitimate military target at, or close to, the scene of the strike.

[The Selkie]

Small note: the collapse of the world economy and most global institutions would also devastate the global south as well

Yah but that’s still better than the entire northern hemisphere getting a nice soft green glow.

Actually, no... the problem lies not only in the blast itself, but also in the ashes, which are thrown up by the explosion. The irradiated ashes.
Which will cover the earth.
And which will not be nice to the survivors, no matter the hemisphere.
Brian Toon (yes, that's the guy's name) gave an interesting TedTalk on the matter.
But before we derail this thread into a discussion about the effects of nuclear war, according to orf.at, over 140,000 refugees left Ukraine according to the UNHCR (the article is in German).

[Kowani]

Ukrainian Red Cross Chief estimates that Mariupol only has enough food for 3-5 days, expects “complete collapse” of children’s medicine in the city

[Novus America]

Yah but that’s still better than the entire northern hemisphere getting a nice soft green glow.

What a comforting thought. Hey, all of Europe, Russia and North America will cease to exist, but it’s okay because a couple million people might survive the global famines and ecological collapse.

Let’s not go down that road if at all possible.

Well obviously full maximum counter-value strategic nuclear war is not a good idea.
I do not think anyone said it was. But there is a difference between “a really horrible idea killing likely several hundred million” and “humans go extinct”.

[Gravlen]

Yah but that’s still better than the entire northern hemisphere getting a nice soft green glow.

Actually, no... the problem lies not only in the blast itself, but also in the ashes, which are thrown up by the explosion. The irradiated ashes.
Which will cover the earth.
And which will not be nice to the survivors, no matter the hemisphere.
Brian Toon (yes, that's the guy's name) gave an interesting TedTalk on the matter.
But before we derail this thread into a discussion about the effects of nuclear war, according to orf.at, over 140,000 refugees left Ukraine according to the UNHCR (the article is in German).

During the last 24 hours, you should have added.

An estimated 2.15 million people have fled in total.

[Ifreann]

There's no need to speculate, there would be an immediate nuclear response from Russia. They'd nuke everyone. That's why NATO obviously won't attack Russia. No one wants to get nuked.

But what can we do? Our diplomatic efforts aren’t working.

There's no way for you to get your desired war against hostile nuclear powers that won't lead to nuclear war.

[The Selkie]

Actually, no... the problem lies not only in the blast itself, but also in the ashes, which are thrown up by the explosion. The irradiated ashes.
Which will cover the earth.
And which will not be nice to the survivors, no matter the hemisphere.
Brian Toon (yes, that's the guy's name) gave an interesting TedTalk on the matter.
But before we derail this thread into a discussion about the effects of nuclear war, according to orf.at, over 140,000 refugees left Ukraine according to the UNHCR (the article is in German).

During the last 24 hours, you should have added.

An estimated 2.15 million people have fled in total.

Sorry, forgot to add that part - you are right.
Now, according to Wikipedia, the Ukraine has roughly 42 million citizens (or rather, had in 2020, without Crimea). Two million people fled - a little less then five percent of the population or rounded up five in one hundred.
Luckily, these people are not dead, they can return (and I think, that they want to, once things have calmed down), but still... sobering. Very much sobering.

[The Jamesian Republic]

Ukrainian Red Cross Chief estimates that Mariupol only has enough food for 3-5 days, expects “complete collapse” of children’s medicine in the city

This is horrible.

But what can we do? Our diplomatic efforts aren’t working.

There's no way for you to get your desired war against hostile nuclear powers that won't lead to nuclear war.

I know.

[Novus America]

Small note: the collapse of the world economy and most global institutions would also devastate the global south as well

Yah but that’s still better than the entire northern hemisphere getting a nice soft green glow.

Actually the fallout produced by contemporary thermonuclear weapons is actually relatively small compared to earlier nukes. Nuclear weapons today are smaller, more accurate and much “cleaner”.

Thermonuclear explosions actually produce minimal fallout. The reaction produces helium from hydrogen. Helium is very stable.

The fission trigger is only a small portion of the blast and largely destroyed in the process in most cases.

Also nuclear fallout does not glow green. Nuclear reactions actually create more a blue or orange (if hot enough) glow, but any fallout would not be hot or concentrated enough to produce visible light.

We nuked the shit out of Bikini Atoll and a part of Nevada near Vegas. Back in the 50s watching the nukes explode from Vegas casino rooftops was a tourist attraction and source of entertainment.
Nothing glowing and you can still visit the areas directly hit although ingesting the dirt is discouraged.

And a lot of those bombs were much less efficient and more dirty than the ones we now have.

[Novus America]

But what can we do? Our diplomatic efforts aren’t working.

There's no way for you to get your desired war against hostile nuclear powers that won't lead to nuclear war.

A Kargil type limited war is entirely possible without nuclear war. Obviously as it already happened.

But obviously trying to full Iraq 2003 Russia would be incredibly stupid, and might very well cause nuclear war, and would still be stupid even if it did not.

The world is not a strict binary.

[Christian Confederation]

Yah but that’s still better than the entire northern hemisphere getting a nice soft green glow.

Actually the fallout produced by contemporary thermonuclear weapons is actually relatively small compared to earlier nukes. Nuclear weapons today are smaller, more accurate and much “cleaner”.

Thermonuclear explosions actually produce minimal fallout. The reaction produces helium from hydrogen.

The fission trigger is only a small portion of the blast and largely destroyed in the process.

Also nuclear fallout does not glow green. Nuclear reactions actually create more a blue or orange (if hot enough) glow, but any fallout would not be hot or concentrated enough to produce visible light.

We nuked the shit out of Bikini Atoll and a part of Nevada. Nothing glowing and you can still visit the areas although ingesting the dirt is discouraged.

And a lot of those bombs were much less efficient and more dirty than the ones we now have.

Ingesting Dirt is recommended most of the time even if uniradiated

[The North Polish Union]

Yah but that’s still better than the entire northern hemisphere getting a nice soft green glow.

Actually the fallout produced by contemporary thermonuclear weapons is actually relatively small compared to earlier nukes. Nuclear weapons today are smaller, more accurate and much “cleaner”.

Thermonuclear explosions actually produce minimal fallout. The reaction produces helium from hydrogen.

The fission trigger is only a small portion of the blast and largely destroyed in the process.

Also nuclear fallout does not glow green. Nuclear reactions actually create more a blue or orange (if hot enough) glow, but any fallout would not be hot or concentrated enough to produce visible light.

We nuked the shit out of Bikini Atoll and a part of Nevada. Nothing glowing and you can still visit the areas although ingesting the dirt is discouraged.

And a lot of those bombs were much less efficient and more dirty than the ones we now have.

The bolded is the real problem. Crops, and therefore livestock that eat the crops/grass and us when we eat the crops, have no problem sucking all kinds of the nutrients they like out of the soil. Sometimes when we irradiate shit, the crops then start sucking irradiated stuff out of the soil. Nobody's practicing intensive agriculture (or any agriculture) in Bikini Atoll or most of Nevada, but they sure are in Ukraine, western Russia, and most of the US.

[Luminesa]

Ukrainian Red Cross Chief estimates that Mariupol only has enough food for 3-5 days, expects “complete collapse” of children’s medicine in the city

A clear, undisguised shot to try and sweep the morale out from under the Ukrainian people. In case anyone thought this was about Nazis from the beginning, it is not. It is genocide of Ukrainians.

[West Bromwich Holme]

Probably a bit left-field, but how much money could be offered to Russian oligarchs to defect and tell the International Criminal Court, via an interpreter, exactly what they know/knew about Putin's plans and Ukraine, and eventually get Putin in front of the ICC in court, much like Slobodan Milosevic.
Surely some of them must be so disgusted they'd go over to the other side, i.e. opposing Russia's current military action.

Would this strategy even work, or would it be too much of a gamble to do? Or would it be too damaging to Russia's regime and they'd still consider it fake news?

Russia's judicial system wouldn't handle it, so the ICC probably would be the only solution.

But how on earth would they get the germophobe that is Putin into court; specially adapted court, social distanced jurors etc.? and as for sentencing, well, he'd be breaching:

• Article 8 - War Crimes
• Article 7 - Crimes against humanity

But where would he be jailed? A Russian prison, a US supermax? What would happen to Russia next, politically?

[Novus America]

Actually the fallout produced by contemporary thermonuclear weapons is actually relatively small compared to earlier nukes. Nuclear weapons today are smaller, more accurate and much “cleaner”.

Thermonuclear explosions actually produce minimal fallout. The reaction produces helium from hydrogen.

The fission trigger is only a small portion of the blast and largely destroyed in the process.

Also nuclear fallout does not glow green. Nuclear reactions actually create more a blue or orange (if hot enough) glow, but any fallout would not be hot or concentrated enough to produce visible light.

We nuked the shit out of Bikini Atoll and a part of Nevada. Nothing glowing and you can still visit the areas although ingesting the dirt is discouraged.

And a lot of those bombs were much less efficient and more dirty than the ones we now have.

The bolded is the real problem. Crops, and therefore livestock that eat the crops/grass and us when we eat the crops, have no problem sucking all kinds of the nutrients they like out of the soil. Sometimes when we irradiate shit, the crops then start sucking irradiated stuff out of the soil. Nobody's practicing intensive agriculture (or any agriculture) in Bikini Atoll or most of Nevada, but they sure are in Ukraine, western Russia, and most of the US.

Well yes. Although it should be noted even if you do eat the stuff growing on Bikini Atoll it is not likely to actually be that particularly dangerous unless you did so for years.
And that was after it got hit by multiple nukes in the same place over a many years. Which does not happen in a nuclear war. You do not keep nuking the same place over and over year after year.

But yes there would be millions starved (less from fallout as much as from infrastructure breakdown) as it is not Ike people would be deliberately dropping salted nukes on agriculture areas, again and again for years.

But sure cancer rates would almost certainly go up a lot and life expectancy significantly down (although for Russian men it is already truly atrocious). Birth defects would increase as would infinite mortality. Pre industrial life expectancy and child mortality rates would be quite possible. (although again for Russian men life expectancy is already pre-industrial).

It would really suck to say the least.

But we need to stop with the whole “earth ceases to exist and everyone dies”.

Beneath the Planet of the Apes was a shitty fiction, not remotely based on anything real.

But anyways it is all academic, as this is not going to go to everyone going full counter value anyways.

[El Lazaro]

There's no need to speculate, there would be an immediate nuclear response from Russia. They'd nuke everyone. That's why NATO obviously won't attack Russia. No one wants to get nuked.

But what can we do? Our diplomatic efforts aren’t working.

Russian stock market remains closed indefinitely as it's almost worthless now, Russia's most valuable stocks on foreign exchanges are worth pennies, the ruble has lost nearly half its value compared to the USD, debt default projected next month, Russia has lost 630 billion USD in reserve cash, oligarchs have lost over 80 billion and counting, Russian exports have dropped drastically as nobody is willing to buy them, etc. But sure, this is just another couple of small sanctions against junior government officials and we're expecting Russia to back down out of the goodness of their hearts. Despite the Kremlin's wishful thinking, Russia is about to take a trip 30 years back in time. Crimea was costly enough, Russia will not be able to pay a hundredfold for the rest of Ukraine.

[The North Polish Union]

The bolded is the real problem. Crops, and therefore livestock that eat the crops/grass and us when we eat the crops, have no problem sucking all kinds of the nutrients they like out of the soil. Sometimes when we irradiate shit, the crops then start sucking irradiated stuff out of the soil. Nobody's practicing intensive agriculture (or any agriculture) in Bikini Atoll or most of Nevada, but they sure are in Ukraine, western Russia, and most of the US.

Well yes. Although it should be noted even if you do eat the stuff growing on Bikini Atoll it is not likely to actually be that particularly dangerous unless you did do for years.
And that was after it got hit by multiple nukes in the same place over a many years. Which does not happen in a nuclear war. You do not keep nuking the same place over and over year after year.

But yes there would be millions starved (less from fallout as much as from infrastructure breakdown) as it is not Ike people would be deliberately dropping salted nukes on agriculture areas, again and again for years.

But sure cancer rates would almost certainly go up a lot and life expectancy significantly down (although for Russian men it is already atrocious). Birth defects would increase. It would really suck to say the least.

But we need to stop with the whole “earth ceases to exist and everyone dies”.

Beneath the Planet of the Apes was a shitty fiction, not remotely based on anything real.

But anyways it is all academic, as this is not going to go to everyone going full counter value anyways.

You're correct that the effects on crop-based agriculture wouldn't be that long, it seems that at Czornobyl much plant radioactivity has returned to only slightly elevated levels and I can't quickly find any information on radiocontamination in ag products from Fukuszima. The effects last longer in animal life, because (1) animals live longer than most crops, which need replanted annually; (2) radiation can cause reproduction issues in animals, including some heritable problems and so issues last more than just a few generations, I was able to find that livestock in Biełaruś had higher levels of many issues even today.

My first job after uni was working for the government on wheat nutrition projects. One project (which I didn't help with but was aware of) dealt with decreasing the amounts of lead in wheat. This is a serious issue in mining areas where soils and groundwater can be badly contaminated (thanks communism!); of course lead is a stable atom and can last indefinitely, radioactive contaminants will decay to stable states, some quicker than others.

Planet of the Apes is ridiculous, but who knows, is A Canticle for Leibowitz a more possible outcome?