Ukrainian Invasion Thread II: Sunrise on the Dnieper

[Kowani]

[url=https://appropriations.house.gov/sites/democrats.appropriations.house.gov/files/Ukraine%20Supplemental%20Summary.pdf]Ukraine aid package is up[/url]

[box]
-- $6.5 billion for Department of Defense (European Command Center and replenish US stocks sent to Ukraine)

-- $4 billion for the State Department (lMigrant aid; macroecon $ for Ukraine; financing of Ukraine's military purchases)

-- $3 billion for USAID (Food, health care etc)

includes funding for lots of other Ukraine-related small programs, including the FBI Kleptocracy investigation program; Treasury's sanctions regime; cyber stuff[/box]

[Adamede]

Even if Russia wins this war militarily they’re going to lose in every other aspect. This is their Afghanistan.

That can be easily be solved by expelling all Ukrainians from Ukraine and appropriating their wealth.

Or you could just say you have no idea what the hell you’re talking about.

[Ethel mermania]

That can be easily be solved by expelling all Ukrainians from Ukraine and appropriating their wealth.

Or you could just say you have no idea what the hell you’re talking about.

Worked for the crimea.

[Independent Cossack Ukraine]

OK I am pretty upset with President Biden too. I am an ardent independent and do not join any political parties (not a Republican if you want to use that angle), but Biden is a total disaster on all fronts. What he said recently in regards to Ukraine is stupid. He blocked Poland from transferring ALL their MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine (and then the Poles would just buy F-16s as replacement).

Ukraine uses the MiG-29 regularly. They do not need training to use more MiGs. All it would be is a transfer of weapons (which has occurred many times). Why would Biden block weapons sales? He is condemning Ukraine to suffer more due to lack of air units. And if Ukraine falls, Poland is confronted by an aggressive, imperialistic Russia once again. It is a real threat to Central/Eastern Europe.

Further, why doesn't he use oil from the United States to offset Russian oil? Russia went after Ukraine for oil (massive gas fields off the coast of Crimea), and oil is the one thing keeping Russia afloat.

[Adamede]

How do you see Ukraine being annexed into Russia or having a lasting, viable puppet state set up?

I just don't see how Russia is going to make that work.

I can see Putin being able to occupy Ukraine with enough effort and losses in men and materiel. But I don't see that occupation lasting very long or being in any way peaceful.

He’ll bleed Russia dry trying to hold onto Ukraine.

[Gallia-]

Or you could just say you have no idea what the hell you’re talking about.

Worked for the crimea.

Did it?

Crimea never had a substantial Ukrainian population. Those that left left long before 2014.

A survey in May 2013, asked respondents what language they spoke at home:[28]

82% Russian
10% Crimean Tatar
3% Russian and Ukrainian equally
3% Russian and another language equally
2% Ukrainian

The vast majority of the Crimean peninsula is Russian.

[Kowani]

Further, why doesn't he use oil from the United States to offset Russian oil? Russia went after Ukraine for oil (massive gas fields off the coast of Crimea), and oil is the one thing keeping Russia afloat.

The oil industry is not state-controlled

[Ethel mermania]

Worked for the crimea.

Did it?

Crimea never had a substantial Ukrainian population. Those that left left long before 2014.

A survey in May 2013, asked respondents what language they spoke at home:[28]

82% Russian
10% Crimean Tatar
3% Russian and Ukrainian equally
3% Russian and another language equally
2% Ukrainian

The vast majority of the Crimean peninsula is Russian.

Now it is. In 1943 it wasn't.

Get the fuck out of others peoples land!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deporta ... ean_Tatars

[Gallia-]

Did it?

Crimea never had a substantial Ukrainian population. Those that left left long before 2014.



The vast majority of the Crimean peninsula is Russian.

Now it is. In 1943 it wasn't.

Get the fuck out of others peoples land!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deporta ... ean_Tatars

>In 1943 it wasn't.

Uh, considering in 1943 it was being occupied by the Nazis, and people fled, I'd imagine that would be the case yes. Perhaps the only people left were Nazis and their Ukrainian collaborators like Bandera.

It's been plurality (a "minority-majority" if you will) Russian for as long as anyone has been alive though. Which is about as credible as anything.

If Tatars wanted their own land maybe they should have been able to beat the Tsars lol.

[Luminesa]

So many opinions on Ukrainian fate. So, in short, what should I expect as Ukrainian?

If you live in Kyiv or Kharkiv, expect a siege.

If Syria and Chechnya tell us anything, it’s that there’s a strong possibility that the war in Ukraine will devolve into a series of urban sieges and urban insurgencies. Fighting in densely populated urban areas is always a humanitarian disaster, doubly so when it’s asymmetric.

Coordinate with your neighbours. Do what is necessary - if you can - to get basic supplies into your city and your neighbourhood before the Russian advance cuts you off from international trade.

That’s my two cents of advice as a layman.

At the very least this is useful advice.

[Spirit of Hope]

OK I am pretty upset with President Biden too. I am an ardent independent and do not join any political parties (not a Republican if you want to use that angle), but Biden is a total disaster on all fronts. What he said recently in regards to Ukraine is stupid. He blocked Poland from transferring ALL their MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine (and then the Poles would just buy F-16s as replacement).

Ukraine uses the MiG-29 regularly. They do not need training to use more MiGs. All it would be is a transfer of weapons (which has occurred many times). Why would Biden block weapons sales? He is condemning Ukraine to suffer more due to lack of air units. And if Ukraine falls, Poland is confronted by an aggressive, imperialistic Russia once again. It is a real threat to Central/Eastern Europe.

The US was the ones pushing Poland to make its aircraft available for Ukraine. They only think they blocked was Poland sending the jets to Germany to then go to Ukraine. The US has also provided millions of dollars in lethal aid to Ukraine.

Further, why doesn't he use oil from the United States to offset Russian oil? Russia went after Ukraine for oil (massive gas fields off the coast of Crimea), and oil is the one thing keeping Russia afloat.

The US did release oil from the oil reserve and moved to block new imports of oil from Russia.

[The North Polish Union]

If Tatars wanted their own land maybe they should have been able to beat the Tsars lol.

>Least imperialist Leninist

[Gallia-]

If Tatars wanted their own land maybe they should have been able to beat the Tsars lol.

>Least imperialist Leninist

Leninism is an arch-imperialist ideology because it believes in turning Russians/Ukrainians/Tatars into Soviets, yes.

It's Super Imperialist.

[Luminesa]

I think Arch could explain this better than me, but I’ll try anyway. While the religious differences I imagine are not that big, they operate along national lines. And then there are two Ukrainian Orthodox Churches, each with different leaders. The one backed by Moscow has turned against Russia’s military actions, and the other one…well, probably obvious where he stands. Patriarch Kirill, unfortunately, stands with Russia’s forces it seems.

I missed this at the time.

There are no doctrinal differences involved; only administrative and jurisdictional ones.

The Patriarchate of Moscow claims jurisdictional authority over the entirety of Ukraine. A difficult to define percentage of Ukrainians, though likely a majority, want an independent (technical term 'autocephalous') Ukrainian Orthodox Church. It's important to stress here that, unlike the Catholic Church, the Orthodox Church isn't a single administrative body, but rather a group of autocephalous churches who share the same doctrine, are all in communion with each other (well, usually, anyway), and also have defined jurisdictional boundaries.

Up until the 19th century, there were only a small number of autocephalous Orthodox churches (though there had been a few more in the past). These were (in order of precedence) Constantinople, Alexandria, Antioch, Jerusalem, Moscow, Georgia and Cyprus. As the Ottoman Empire disintegrated, the new nations in the Balkans asserted their right to their own national churches; in the case of Serbia and Bulgaria, to the restoration of previously autocephalous churches. At the same time, the Georgian church was suppressed by the Russian Empire in 1811, and then restored in 1917. This concept of 'national churches' based on ethnic lines was condemned as a sin (technical name Phyletism) by Constantinople in 1872, but while this ruling is still technically on the books, it did nothing to discourage the growth of Orthodox jurisdictions drawn along ethnic and national lines. While some autocephalous churches remain trans-national, others remain very narrowly focused on a specific nation and associated ethnic group.

So for the last 200 years or so, Orthodoxy has become increasingly fractured administratively while remaining united doctrinally.

When Ukraine gained its independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union, calls for a Ukrainian national Orthodox church became prominent. At one point there were three different jurisdictions attempting to operate in the country, though the only one with official recognition across Orthodoxy as a whole was the group that remained affiliated with Moscow.

In 2019, the Patriarch of Constantinople - whose status within Orthodoxy is solely a first among equals primacy of honour - recognised the autocephaly of a new Orthodox Church of Ukraine that united the different groups seeking independence. This would remove Ukraine from Moscow's ecclesiastical jurisdiction. While in narrow technical terms (and I don't propose to get into the details) the Patriarch of Constantinople likely had the historical right to do this, he did so without any reference to Moscow. The Russian Orthodox Church is by far the demographically largest autocephalous church, and likely the most politically powerful, and it pitched a fit. Some autocephalous churches followed Constantinople's lead, others refused to recognise Ukraine; this opened up a breach in the Orthodox Church, though as of right now it's neither total nor final. Meanwhile, a not insignificant minority of Ukrainians stayed with a second bishop of Kiev (technically the Metropolitan of Kiev) that still recognised Moscow's jurisdiction.

But yes, the Moscow Patriarchate would love to suppress the independence of the new Orthodox Church of Ukraine, and doing so very much fits into Putin's narrative of Ukraine not being a real country; so the two goals are aligned.

Further complicating matters is that the man who brought Christianity to both Russia and Ukraine was the 10th-century ruler Vladimir of Kiev. It was his decision to convert to Christianity in 986 that brought Orthodoxy to both countries. This is often used to drive Russian narratives of how Russia and Ukraine's shared ecclesiastical history means they're really one people.

At its core, this is a power play. Ukrainian political independence and ecclesiastical independence go hand in hand. The latter is likely inevitable, but the Patriarch of Constantinople's decision to unilaterally recognise without broad support was, in narrow political terms, likely a mistake. But Putin wants to suppress both, and while the war in Ukraine is more about suppressing the political independence, suppression of any move to ecclesiastical independence is almost certainly a desired secondary goal - and goes a long way towards explaining the messaging over the conflict coming out of the Moscow Patriarchate.

Thank you for the more in-depth response! That is a fear of mine, that the Ukrainian Orthodox Church will be suppressed in such an insidious manner. Is it possible that they would try to replace their current Metropolitan (?) in the Ukrainian Church with one who is friendlier to Russia’s political goals, or is that not possible? It sounds like Russia thought such would happen with Metropolitan Onufriy and that…went in an unexpected manner.

[Forsher]

1. Western sanctions will most likely not lead to the collapse of the Russian economy.

Even when you wrote this there were some reasonable arguments to make that the Russian economy had already collapsed.

A more traditional collapse is now being reported as likely...

Russia will soon be unable to pay its debts, according to a leading credit ratings agency.

Fitch Ratings downgraded its view of the country's government debt, warning a default is "imminent".

[...]

Shane Oliver of investment management company AMP Capital believes a default on Russian debt was "effectively already occurring".

"It will only service it in much depreciated roubles anyway and foreign investors are offloading it at fire sale prices. Fortunately the global exposure to it is relatively low," he told the BBC.

The Russian rouble has also hit record lows as countries around the world imposed increasingly tough sanctions on the country.

Last month, Russia's central bank more than doubled its interest rate to 20% in an attempt to stop the value of its currency from sliding further.

Those last few paragraphs are why I say there are reasonable arguments the economy has already collapsed.

Of course, what does that even actually mean? In some ways, not much, it seems. In other ways, it may be the case that the boycotts have more effect on ordinary Russians (though a depreciating rouble should jack prices of anything imported up quite a lot).

[Gallia-]

Russia has one of the lowest debt to GDP ratios in the world. A default isn't going to do much, besides make Russia, notoriously poor country, a little poorer.

Moody's, S&P, and Fitch are also obvious buy-ins as I'd imagine Russia could probably pump its rating up to AAA if it paid them enough money lol.

The real ones you need to watch out wrt defaults are America and Japan.

[Adamede]

So many opinions on Ukrainian fate. So, in short, what should I expect as Ukrainian?

No one knows frankly. No bullshit things are probably going to get a lot worse and the war isn’t over anytime soon.

However Ukraine will survive.

[Gallia-]

Zelenskyy is open to surrender (and presumably actually agreeing to Minsk) i.e. taking Donbass and Luhansk back and integrating them as protected subjects instead of genocide targets of Ukrainian nationalists or whatever the constitutional reforms demanded by Russia were. I'd imagine Russia will throw in Kherson water/power provisioning for Crimea, tell Zelenskyy to stay out of NATO because they don't care about him, and then dust its hands and go home. War over.

Zelenskyy now has to fight a brutal civil war against a third to a half his own countrymen who think he's a traitor for 1) being Jewish 2) negotiating with the Russians 3) brokering an actual peace deal.

That seems to be where this is headed anyway.

[The Alma Mater]

Zelenskyy is open to surrender (and presumably actually agreeing to Minsk) i.e. taking Donbass and Luhansk back and integrating them as protected subjects instead of genocide targets of Ukrainian nationalists or whatever the constitutional reforms demanded by Russia were. I'd imagine Russia will throw in Kherson water/power provisioning for Crimea, tell Zelenskyy to stay out of NATO because they don't care about him, and then dust its hands and go home. War over.

Zelenskyy now has to fight a brutal civil war against a third to a half his own countrymen who think he's a traitor for 1) being Jewish 2) negotiating with the Russians 3) brokering an actual peace deal.

That seems to be where this is headed anyway.

At which point the sanctions will also end and Russia will be fine.
Putin wins.

[Grave_n_idle]

Zelenskyy is open to surrender (and presumably actually agreeing to Minsk) i.e. taking Donbass and Luhansk back and integrating them as protected subjects instead of genocide targets of Ukrainian nationalists or whatever the constitutional reforms demanded by Russia were. I'd imagine Russia will throw in Kherson water/power provisioning for Crimea, tell Zelenskyy to stay out of NATO because they don't care about him, and then dust its hands and go home. War over.

Zelenskyy now has to fight a brutal civil war against a third to a half his own countrymen who think he's a traitor for 1) being Jewish 2) negotiating with the Russians 3) brokering an actual peace deal.

That seems to be where this is headed anyway.

Can you rephrase this? That whole first line doesn't appear to make any sense.

[Holy Tedalonia]

Zelenskyy is open to surrender (and presumably actually agreeing to Minsk) i.e. taking Donbass and Luhansk back and integrating them as protected subjects instead of genocide targets of Ukrainian nationalists or whatever the constitutional reforms demanded by Russia were. I'd imagine Russia will throw in Kherson water/power provisioning for Crimea, tell Zelenskyy to stay out of NATO because they don't care about him, and then dust its hands and go home. War over.

Zelenskyy now has to fight a brutal civil war against a third to a half his own countrymen who think he's a traitor for 1) being Jewish 2) negotiating with the Russians 3) brokering an actual peace deal.

That seems to be where this is headed anyway.

At which point the sanctions will also end and Russia will be fine.
Putin wins.

Does that mean NS forumers will put aside their differences and leave the internet. Ushering an era of world peace. Who knows?

[Gallia-]

Zelenskyy is open to surrender (and presumably actually agreeing to Minsk) i.e. taking Donbass and Luhansk back and integrating them as protected subjects instead of genocide targets of Ukrainian nationalists or whatever the constitutional reforms demanded by Russia were. I'd imagine Russia will throw in Kherson water/power provisioning for Crimea, tell Zelenskyy to stay out of NATO because they don't care about him, and then dust its hands and go home. War over.

Zelenskyy now has to fight a brutal civil war against a third to a half his own countrymen who think he's a traitor for 1) being Jewish 2) negotiating with the Russians 3) brokering an actual peace deal.

That seems to be where this is headed anyway.

At which point the sanctions will also end and Russia will be fine.
Putin wins.

Putin wins more if the sanctions stay in place.

Zelenskyy is open to surrender (and presumably actually agreeing to Minsk) i.e. taking Donbass and Luhansk back and integrating them as protected subjects instead of genocide targets of Ukrainian nationalists or whatever the constitutional reforms demanded by Russia were. I'd imagine Russia will throw in Kherson water/power provisioning for Crimea, tell Zelenskyy to stay out of NATO because they don't care about him, and then dust its hands and go home. War over.

Zelenskyy now has to fight a brutal civil war against a third to a half his own countrymen who think he's a traitor for 1) being Jewish 2) negotiating with the Russians 3) brokering an actual peace deal.

That seems to be where this is headed anyway.

Can you rephrase this? That whole first line doesn't appear to make any sense.

Have you not read Minsk II? It demanded that Ukraine adopt a constitutional referendum that devolves local governance from the Rada to Donbass/Luhansk (like how Scotland is locally devolved in the UK I guess) and appoints an OCSE mandated mission to keep Banderists from genociding local Russophone population. I'd imagine that is the basis of any proposed peace negotiation, since Russia's whole thing is that Ukraine hasn't bothered with Minsk II, and is still internally saber rattling about genociding all the Russians in Donbass/Luhansk and Crimea through Ukrainization.

It's one of the more important parts of Russia's concern of a post-2014 government.

Large portions of Donbass and Luhansk are Russophones. They were being genocided in a manner similar to how the Khrushchev government attempted to genocide Ukrainians.

[The Alma Mater]

At which point the sanctions will also end and Russia will be fine.
Putin wins.

Putin wins more if the sanctions stay in place.

So Putin *always* wins ?
Joy.

[The North Polish Union]

""The Russian army is the last bastion against the satanic new world order". Literal quote from the official Russian Officer's Handbook. Captured by Ukrainian GUR, document appears authentic."

>Least imperialist Leninist

Leninism is an arch-imperialist ideology because it believes in turning Russians/Ukrainians/Tatars into Soviets, yes.

It's Super Imperialist.

I didn't know Leninism involved telling people that got smacked around by the Tsars they should've just done better though

But in practice the 'Soviet people' were just Russians+whatever groups had Russification imposed on them.

Brezhniev in 1975: "The Soviet people have voluntarily accepted Russian as a common historical heritage which contributes to a further stabilization of the political, economic and spiritual unity of the Soviet people."

No, I'm not goin to get into a discussion of the 80 million different splinter groups of communism and whether Brezhniev was ideologically pure enough to be allowed to say things like this or whatever.

[Luminesa]

Worthwhile note from said article (which I already read this morning):
"The people who elected me are not ready to surrender. We are not ready for ultimatums," Zelensky said. "But we can discuss with Russia the future of Crimea and Donbas."

Compromise on disputed regions is not a full-out surrender.