Ukrainian Invasion Thread II: Sunrise on the Dnieper

[Adamede]

Those are very outdated numbers for Ukraine’s estimate, 1400 is nowhere near the most conservative estimates from non-Kremlin sources.

To be fair, NATO's putting Russia's losses at 30-40k, Which I think we all know is... Unlikely? IDK how long it takes to lose 30k soldiers in war, but it seems longer than this.

It’s not really that unlikely. The war has seen heavy constant combat on multiple fronts in multiple cities. And that’s not even getting into the fact that the Russian military isn’t as well armed, trained, or less as most Western militaries are, or as averse to casualties.

Frankly I’m surprised more people aren’t dead.

[Picairn]

I thought they tied rubles to Gold?

Not necessarily. Russia's central bank announced that they'll buy gold from other Russian commercial banks at a rate of 5,000 rubles per gram, to beef up Russia's gold reserves at a steep discount to the banks.

Establishing an actual gold standard would be catastrophic for the Russian economy though, because Russia's current gold reserves can not back up all of the rubles in circulation.

As of 1st January 2022, there are 14.1 trillion rubles in circulation. Assuming Russia imposes an exchange rate same as the above, to back up all this money would require 2.82 billion grams of gold, or 2,820 tonnes. Russia only has about 2,300 tonnes of gold according to latest data. That's still 520 tonnes, or 2.6 trillion rubles short. Needless to say the loss of 2.6 trillion rubles would have a massive deflationary effect on the Russian economy.

Remember that this is the rate for commercial banks to sell gold to Russia's central bank, not a universal fixed exchange rate where civilians can redeem rubles for a certain amount of gold.

T'is the largest weakness of the gold standard: the supply of gold is fixed (only increased by new gold mines) and so the supply of money must be accordingly fixed and severely restrains the economy, as well as the state's fiscal solutions during recessions. It is the same reason that the US and other countries can not return to the gold standard - their economies would collapse overnight.

[Adamede]

A new batch of 'Ukrainian refugees' arrives in Ireland.
At present, because there are many channels to obtain Ukrainian identity documents at a "moderate price", an industrial chain in which third-country citizens first obtain Ukrainian identity and then eventually enter EU countries as "Ukrainian refugees" has rapidly formed.

No wonder Russia let Ukraine join the EU,The EU will not accept Ukraine even if it peeing its pants.

And the totalitarian state news three-piece package from Russia :
The people are going to resist
Army prepares for infighting
The leadership assassinates each other.

Reminds me of the widely circulated remarks in Chinese internet by democracy and liberals in 2019:Maduro won't last a few days.

Got a source for any of that?

[El Lazaro]

Ukraine's counterattacks as of March 31.

The most successful gains Ukraine has made in the past week are the relief of Kyiv and Sumy, as well as a large rollback in Russian territory on the Mykolaiv-Kherson axis.

Edit: Biden orders the release of 1 million barrels of oil per day for 6 months from the US strategic reserve to control gas prices.

Russia has now fully lost the initiative, they've lost, it's only a matter of time before they realize it.

US/UK intelligence claims Putin has been left in the dark about a lot of this. I wonder whether he believes any of the news outside of state media.

[The Federal State of Novorossiya]

Y’all have heard of Russia’s ‘TikTok Battalion’ before? If not here is a video by WarLeaks.

Ukraine War - From Fighting Traffic Lights To Abducting Goats: Russias Chechen TikTok Battalion

I am sure the title is enough to raise some eyebrows.

[Picairn]

They have a program where they buy gold from Russian banks for a fixed price per gram (5000 roubles per gram was the latest figure) over a given period.

If the strength of the rouble is such that there is a premium for gold is being paid, gold flows into the Russian central bank and roubles flow into Russian local banks.

To be fully tied to gold, they would also have to offer gold at a fixed price. AFAIK they're not doing that at this point.

They had this program before, but they temporarily stopped it when the private demand for gold was very strong (since Russians were buying gold in order to protect their savings).

I think that Putin's plan here is to use the European gas contract "renegotiation" to boost demand for the rouble. Once the rouble is strengthened, they'll buy up the domestic gold supply in Russia.

Those two policies (assuming the plan goes the way he wants it to) will help them stabilize the rouble and further build up the Russian Central Bank's gold reserves.

If the Europeans simply refuse to pay for gas in roubles, I'm not sure his hand is too strong. If he halts the flow of gas for any appreciable length of time, Russia's economy will be in a world of hurt.

Solid analysis, though I doubt Russia really wants to tie its hands and return to the gold standard. It is the ultimate move to kill your economy. Gold standard leads to higher volatility in prices and economic growth, not less. The "stability" that it brings is a misnomer.

[Adamede]

Basically every motorway petrol station I've visited throughout Europe has a bar serving at least a decent array of alcoholic beverages.

I don't know about Irish petrol stations, though. I've never driven a car there. I just remember boarding the Luas while heavily intoxicated with Jameson's proof at 11 am.

A lot of petrol stations here do sell alcohol, but not really a bar type situation.

Similar here in America but laws very from state to state.

[El Lazaro]

They have a program where they buy gold from Russian banks for a fixed price per gram (5000 roubles per gram was the latest figure) over a given period.

If the strength of the rouble is such that there is a premium for gold is being paid, gold flows into the Russian central bank and roubles flow into Russian local banks.

To be fully tied to gold, they would also have to offer gold at a fixed price. AFAIK they're not doing that at this point.

They had this program before, but they temporarily stopped it when the private demand for gold was very strong (since Russians were buying gold in order to protect their savings).

I think that Putin's plan here is to use the European gas contract "renegotiation" to boost demand for the rouble. Once the rouble is strengthened, they'll buy up the domestic gold supply in Russia.

Those two policies (assuming the plan goes the way he wants it to) will help them stabilize the rouble and further build up the Russian Central Bank's gold reserves.

If the Europeans simply refuse to pay for gas in roubles, I'm not sure his hand is too strong. If he halts the flow of gas for any appreciable length of time, Russia's economy will be in a world of hurt.

Russia’s new demand requires buyers to make payments through Gazprombank accounts so Russia can then buy rubles, essentially to the same point. I’d love to see the EU call the bluff by threatening to remove Gazprombank from SWIFT. Putin shouldn’t be given the privilege of telling everyone else what to do.

[Novus America]

They have a program where they buy gold from Russian banks for a fixed price per gram (5000 roubles per gram was the latest figure) over a given period.

If the strength of the rouble is such that there is a premium for gold is being paid, gold flows into the Russian central bank and roubles flow into Russian local banks.

To be fully tied to gold, they would also have to offer gold at a fixed price. AFAIK they're not doing that at this point.

They had this program before, but they temporarily stopped it when the private demand for gold was very strong (since Russians were buying gold in order to protect their savings).

I think that Putin's plan here is to use the European gas contract "renegotiation" to boost demand for the rouble. Once the rouble is strengthened, they'll buy up the domestic gold supply in Russia.

Those two policies (assuming the plan goes the way he wants it to) will help them stabilize the rouble and further build up the Russian Central Bank's gold reserves.

If the Europeans simply refuse to pay for gas in roubles, I'm not sure his hand is too strong. If he halts the flow of gas for any appreciable length of time, Russia's economy will be in a world of hurt.

Merely threatening it has done a lot of long term damage. The whole “Russia is a reliable supplier, will not politicize gas” thing pushed on both sides is dead already.

If they force this they are changing the terms of their contracts, which will drive Europe to dump Russian gas faster.

Of course this is a lot of it, Russia is so desperate to prop up the rouble in the short term, it is doing things that will harm long term. For example hiking the interest rate to 20%. This encourages people to buy rouble denominated bonds, BUT also will destroy the economy long term as new loans will be unaffordable.

It is not clear what the long term plan is, if there is one.

But this is the big issue with the sanction so far. They are completely inadequate for supplying an short term pressure, and will only be effective if kept in place permanently.

They should not be lifted, at least while Putin is in power.

If they are lifted quickly they will have done little.

I suppose Russia is hoping things will go back to “normal” quickly but I doubt that is the case.

[The Nihilistic view]

To be fair, NATO's putting Russia's losses at 30-40k, Which I think we all know is... Unlikely? IDK how long it takes to lose 30k soldiers in war, but it seems longer than this.

It’s not really that unlikely. The war has seen heavy constant combat on multiple fronts in multiple cities. And that’s not even getting into the fact that the Russian military isn’t as well armed, trained, or less as most Western militaries are, or as averse to casualties.

Frankly I’m surprised more people aren’t dead.

People get used to the low intensity conflicts the west has mostly been involved in the last 25 years.

[Christian Confederation]

So the Russian soldiers who got radiation poisoning at Chernobyl were digging and wandering around with no protective equipment

Comrade Ivan the Superman of Chernobyl. Homie went from "Comrade take picture of me and glowing Dog!" To "Comrade my lungs are mush!" Real fast.

[Independent Cossack Ukraine]

So the Russian soldiers who got radiation poisoning at Chernobyl were digging and wandering around with no protective equipment

Comrade Ivan the Superman of Chernobyl. Homie went from "Comrade take picture of me and glowing Dog!" To "Comrade my lungs are mush!" Real fast.

OOPS

Somehow I got the feeling Russian soldiers would get radiation poisoning if they garrisoned Chernobyl long enough.

"Go to Chernobyl, they said. It will be fun, they said."

[West Bromwich Holme]

If I was a lottery winner, I'd buy this Mercedes Maybach S650 armoured edition worth $550k.

Putin's hateful, and the closest thing to Satan, and should go to hell, but he's got a cool car.

[The H Corporation]

Comrade Ivan the Superman of Chernobyl. Homie went from "Comrade take picture of me and glowing Dog!" To "Comrade my lungs are mush!" Real fast.

OOPS

Somehow I got the feeling Russian soldiers would get radiation poisoning if they garrisoned Chernobyl long enough.

"Go to Chernobyl, they said. It will be fun, they said."

I was surprised it took the poisoning some time to kick in

[Novus America]

Has anyone seen this?

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-troops-suffer-acute-radiation-083839177.html


I'm at a loss for words. Chernobyl? What the hell were they doing there? Whose idea was this, and what was it supposed to accomplish? Are they insane?

NGL the story sounds like it was made up. I doubt radiation in the general vicinity of the plant would still be deadly and intense enough to cause ARS after 36 years.

https://twitter.com/jrmygrdn/status/150 ... 5p6Uw&s=19
https://twitter.com/CherylRofer/status/ ... jTU2Q&s=19

Edit: To explain why this is likely fake, the current levels of radiation in the forest are measured up to 10μSv/h (micro-Sieverts per hour), while it takes at least 5Sv worth of radiation to suffer poisoning and eventual death. That'll cost about 500,000 hours to reach, or 57 years.

Well those are the numbers for normal ambient radiation, correct?
If they dug up dirt, breathed the dirt into their lungs, then I would think that might be an explanation. Kicking up the dirt was probably the issue, not being in the forrest per se. You are probably fine if you do not dig stuff up.

Alpha radiation emissions for example cannot penetrate skin or clothing, but if you breathe in alpha radiation producing particles they can severely damage your lung tissue.

It is possible too it is not actually truly acute radiation poisoning per se but maybe alpha radiation burns in the lungs.

Which would mean on the bright side they might not die from acute radiation sickness. Which is pretty gruesome.
But they might have fucked up their lungs pretty badly. And might die of lung cancer sometime in the future.

[Novus America]

OOPS

Somehow I got the feeling Russian soldiers would get radiation poisoning if they garrisoned Chernobyl long enough.

"Go to Chernobyl, they said. It will be fun, they said."

I was surprised it took the poisoning some time to kick in

Well as was mentioned just being in the Chernobyl area, even the red forrest is not generally that dangerous.
The issue probably came from the digging the trenches, not the normal levels of ambient radiation.

So the issue would not appear until they dug the trenches, and would only appear in those digging the trenches or exposed to the dust from the digging.

[The North Polish Union]

OOPS

Somehow I got the feeling Russian soldiers would get radiation poisoning if they garrisoned Chernobyl long enough.

"Go to Chernobyl, they said. It will be fun, they said."

I was surprised it took the poisoning some time to kick in

Short of being exposed to a truly massive dose, radiation poisoning isn't instantaneous. Even many the initial firefighters who arrived at Czornobyl didn't die until 2-3 weeks after the event and they were exposed to many hundreds of times more radiation than one could be even by digging around in the exclusion zone.

[Tarsonis]

Russia has now fully lost the initiative, they've lost, it's only a matter of time before they realize it.

US/UK intelligence claims Putin has been left in the dark about a lot of this. I wonder whether he believes any of the news outside of state media.

it's downfall all over again

[Gravlen]

Chornobyl is back under Ukrainian control

Ukraine today informed the IAEA that the Russian forces that have been in control of Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) since 24 February had, in writing, transferred control of the NPP to Ukrainian personnel and moved two convoys of troops towards Belarus. A third convoy had also left the city of Slavutych, where many of the Chornobyl NPP staff live, and moved towards Belarus. In addition, Ukraine reported that there are still some Russian forces on the Chornobyl NPP site but presumed that those forces are preparing to leave.

[Chan Island]

Chornobyl is back under Ukrainian control

Ukraine today informed the IAEA that the Russian forces that have been in control of Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) since 24 February had, in writing, transferred control of the NPP to Ukrainian personnel and moved two convoys of troops towards Belarus. A third convoy had also left the city of Slavutych, where many of the Chornobyl NPP staff live, and moved towards Belarus. In addition, Ukraine reported that there are still some Russian forces on the Chornobyl NPP site but presumed that those forces are preparing to leave.

I don’t think I’ll ever get used to the fact that the Battle of Chernobyl happened in real life, no matter how many news articles about it in this war I read.

[Independent Cossack Ukraine]

Chornobyl is back under Ukrainian control

Ukraine today informed the IAEA that the Russian forces that have been in control of Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) since 24 February had, in writing, transferred control of the NPP to Ukrainian personnel and moved two convoys of troops towards Belarus. A third convoy had also left the city of Slavutych, where many of the Chornobyl NPP staff live, and moved towards Belarus. In addition, Ukraine reported that there are still some Russian forces on the Chornobyl NPP site but presumed that those forces are preparing to leave.

Excellent! Slava Ukrainii, Heroyam Slava!

To Russia: RUN, COWARDS!!!

Now we must drive them out of the areas around Chernihiv and Kharkiv. Liberate Donbass and Kherson!

[Independent Cossack Ukraine]

US/UK intelligence claims Putin has been left in the dark about a lot of this. I wonder whether he believes any of the news outside of state media.

it's downfall all over again

"DAS WAR EIN BEFEHL! DER ANGRIFF STEINER WAR BEFEHL!"

Lol we need Downfall Parodies of Putin now.

[San Lumen]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/31/euro ... index.html

Russian troops have withdrawn from Chernobyl, says Ukrainian nuclear operator

[Novus America]

https://fortune.com/2022/03/29/chernoby ... ation/amp/
This seems to confirm that the issue was not simply them being in Chernobyl but rather them kicking up massive amounts of dust.

“The employees said that the military vehicles kicked up a “big column of dust,” which may be what sent radiation levels soaring in the area following the invasion. The workers believed that breathing in that much radioactive dust could cause radiation poisoning, which can quickly turn lethal.”

The employees know what areas not to kick up dust/and or presumably wear respirators in said areas.
But apparently the Russians did not know or care.

That is what is most bizarre, apparently many of them did not even know a nuclear disaster had happened in the area:
“Some soldiers had reportedly never heard about the disaster that some historians believe signaled the beginning of the end for the Soviet Union.”

The thing is many Russians live in an bizarre post modern alternative reality created on state TV, not the actual objective reality we live in.
Except radioactive dust does not give a shit about Russia’s deranged post modern “alternative truths”, it will bring the objective truth to you regardless.

[Spirit of Hope]

Chornobyl is back under Ukrainian control

Ukraine today informed the IAEA that the Russian forces that have been in control of Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) since 24 February had, in writing, transferred control of the NPP to Ukrainian personnel and moved two convoys of troops towards Belarus. A third convoy had also left the city of Slavutych, where many of the Chornobyl NPP staff live, and moved towards Belarus. In addition, Ukraine reported that there are still some Russian forces on the Chornobyl NPP site but presumed that those forces are preparing to leave.

From my understanding this means that the administration of the old power plant is back under Ukrainian control, not that Ukrainian soldiers control the area.