Ukrainian Invasion Thread II: Sunrise on the Dnieper

[Picairn]

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-30

Wow we're reaching Crimean annexation levels of support for Putin here.

[Rusozak]

Still amazed how easily people are rooting for the impoverishment of Russians because their government does things we don't like.

Would you prefer bombing them? As far as responding to open acts of war go I would say this is pretty tame.

[Umeria]

Still amazed how easily people are rooting for the impoverishment of Russians because their government does things we don't like.

Would you prefer bombing them? As far as responding to open acts of war go I would say this is pretty tame.

I suppose I'd prefer the bad thing to the worse thing. Doesn't mean I have to like it

[Alcala-Cordel]

Still amazed how easily people are rooting for the impoverishment of Russians because their government does things we don't like.

I'm not rooting for impoverishment for the Russian people at all, but please don't downplay war crimes as "things we don't like".

With that being said, I think sanctions are the right choice.

[Space Squid]

Still amazed how easily people are rooting for the impoverishment of Russians because their government does things we don't like.

Nobody is rooting for the impoverishment of Russians. Stop being silly.

[Adamede]

Still amazed how easily people are rooting for the impoverishment of Russians because their government does things we don't like.

Nobody is rooting for the impoverishment of Russians. Stop being silly.

Gotta justify your defense of the invading nation morally somehow I guess. To own the libs as well I suppose.

[The H Corporation]

Still amazed how easily people are rooting for the impoverishment of Russians because their government does things we don't like.

Close Twitter, that helps me

[The Alma Mater]

Would you prefer bombing them? As far as responding to open acts of war go I would say this is pretty tame.

I suppose I'd prefer the bad thing to the worse thing. Doesn't mean I have to like it

So what would you like ?

[El Lazaro]

Still amazed how easily people are rooting for the impoverishment of Russians because their government does things we don't like.

Still amazed how people will ignore mass murder to avoid inconveniences

I better clarify that this isn’t about Armenians before that Turkish nationalist guy reappears and threadjacks us into oblivion.

[Picairn]

I suppose I'd prefer the bad thing to the worse thing. Doesn't mean I have to like it

What is the good thing to you? Sanctions are really one of the few options between "total surrender" and "total war".

[Vistulange]

Still amazed how easily people are rooting for the impoverishment of Russians because their government does things we don't like.

Still amazed how people will ignore mass murder to avoid inconveniences

I better clarify that this isn’t about Armenians before that Turkish nationalist guy reappears and threadjacks us into oblivion.

I mean, he's low hanging fruit. I don't think people don't want him to post, because you'd think at this point people would get the hint and just stop engaging. He's literally the way everybody can score "gotcha!" points on NSG without needing to spend much effort.

[Gravlen]

Those are very outdated numbers for Ukraine’s estimate, 1400 is nowhere near the most conservative estimates from non-Kremlin sources.

To be fair, NATO's putting Russia's losses at 30-40k, Which I think we all know is... Unlikely? IDK how long it takes to lose 30k soldiers in war, but it seems longer than this.

I don't think it's unlikely at all. The estimate includes killed, wounded, missing or captured soldiers. Now, a quick and dirty conventional estimate of wounded is that it will be around a three-to-one ratio, meaning three wounded for every one soldier killed. That means that if we go roughly in the middle of the NATO estimate, which lines up with the numbers accidentally published by Russian government-friendly media, we have about 10,000 soldiers killed. Add a three-to-one ratio of wounded, which would be 30,000 wounded, and you end up with a total of 40,000 casualties.

Because the wounded-to-killed ratio leads to just a rough estimate, let's say that the number of missing and captured, which both includes deserted russian soldiers, are included in that number. Then you make the estimate a conservative one by opening up for the possibility that in this conflict there's a two-to-one ratio of wounded to killed soldiers, and you end up with the NATO estimate of 30,000–40,000 soldiers.

That number, then, does not seem so unlikely. But then again, you do have to remember that this invasion is an historic failure as well, and that other military actions which we're comparing it to has had better planning and preparation.

[Gravlen]

In many tapped phone calls between Russian soldiers and their relatives (Russians steal UKR mobile phones, use them, SBU taps) they tell same story: how rich Ukraine is, how much they have looted, and how cool ppl lived here. Some saw asphalt and street lights for the fist time.

Many Western experts and politicians loved to repeat the story of "rich Russia and poor Ukraine". The fact is, that except of extra rich Moscow and Petersburg, Russia is an underdeveloped country, and average Ukrainian province lives much better than average Russian province.

I don't even talk about political freedoms in Ukraine like election of mayors, free press, local self-governance etc. - soldiers do not see this. Ukrainians have better roads, better lights, more money, better food, better connection with neighbour countries. This shocks Russians

They were told all the times that Ukraine is a failed state with people who work like slaves in Europe and have nothing. Now they see the reality where every gasoline station has a computer-operated coffee machine with 30 types of teas, coffee and hot chocolate, and a whisky bar.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1508398726099914756

A tapped call btw a RU soldier in Ukraine and his wife. She instructs him: „loot everything, take all you can“ and extra asks to bring a notebook for their daughter. He says he has looted a flat of a „very sport-oriented family“ and took a lot of T-shirts and high-end vitamins“.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1509104034266947586

[Gravlen]

That said, it increasingly looks like Putin has massively misjudged the situation. It’s clear he misjudged the resistance of the Ukrainian people. He underestimated the strength of the coalition his actions would galvanise. He under-played the economic consequences of the sanctions regime. He over-estimated the abilities of his military to secure a rapid victory. We’ve seen Russian soldiers – short of weapons and morale - refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft.

Director GCHQ's speech on global security amid war in Ukraine

Just a little excerpt with something I hadn't picked up on before: Russian troops have apparently managed to shoot down their own aircraft.

[Sungoldy-China]

A new batch of 'Ukrainian refugees' arrives in Ireland.
At present, because there are many channels to obtain Ukrainian identity documents at a "moderate price", an industrial chain in which third-country citizens first obtain Ukrainian identity and then eventually enter EU countries as "Ukrainian refugees" has rapidly formed.

No wonder Russia let Ukraine join the EU,The EU will not accept Ukraine even if it peeing its pants.

And the totalitarian state news three-piece package from Russia :
The people are going to resist
Army prepares for infighting
The leadership assassinates each other.

Reminds me of the widely circulated remarks in Chinese internet by democracy and liberals in 2019:Maduro won't last a few days.

[The Archregimancy]

To be fair, NATO's putting Russia's losses at 30-40k, Which I think we all know is... Unlikely? IDK how long it takes to lose 30k soldiers in war, but it seems longer than this.

I don't think it's unlikely at all. The estimate includes killed, wounded, missing or captured soldiers. Now, a quick and dirty conventional estimate of wounded is that it will be around a three-to-one ratio, meaning three wounded for every one soldier killed. That means that if we go roughly in the middle of the NATO estimate, which lines up with the numbers accidentally published by Russian government-friendly media, we have about 10,000 soldiers killed. Add a three-to-one ratio of wounded, which would be 30,000 wounded, and you end up with a total of 40,000 casualties.

For some historical comparative context, during the 1940 Battle of France, the Germans - the winning side - had estimated total casualties of just under 30,000 dead, just over 110,000 wounded, and about 18,000 missing over the course of a 6-week campaign that was seen as an astonishing success.

Obviously I entirely appreciate that 1940 and 2022 don't offer entirely analogous scenarios, and that technology has also changed considerably over the intervening 82 years. But given large-scale military invasions of neighbouring European countries have rather gone out of fashion in the post-WW II period, the comparison at least offers some sort of context for understanding casualty figures.

Western/European countries have become rather used to relatively low-casualty conflicts since the Vietnam War (a conflict which only a very few of us posting in NSG will remember); even the Bosnian War only led to the same level of casualties for the Bosnian government forces over 3 1/2 years as the Germans sustained in six weeks in 1940. High-casualty conflicts like the 1998-2003 Second Congo War (which may have directly and indirectly led to over 5 million excess civilian deaths) or the ongoing Syrian Civil War are either ignored or seen as something that happens to other people, so - without getting into the ideological subtext - are often treated with a certain level of detachment. While Europe hasn't been remotely conflict-free since 1945, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a throwback to a very different type of war.

[Sungoldy-China]

Japan's Mitsui & Co. and Mitsubishi Group announced that they would not suspend their participation in the Russian "Sakhalin-2" project.
Russian ruble has returned to pre-war levels
So people are verbally stubborn, but their bodies are still very honest.

[Australian rePublic]

As much as I feel sorry for the Ukrainians, I also feel sorry for the Russians suffering at the hands of their nut case leader

[The Lone Alliance]

As much as I feel sorry for the Ukrainians, I also feel sorry for the Russians suffering at the hands of their nut case leader

On average most of the Russians seem to think they are justified in conquering Ukraine, so I only sympathize with the Russians who oppose the war. I don't sympathize with people who support pointless war and think if you get consequences for supporting an unjust war that's just the breaks.

I thought the same when Pro-War Americans got shunned after Iraq and I don't see any difference here.

[Sky Reavers]

On average most of the Russians seem to think they are justified in conquering Ukraine, so I only sympathize with the Russians who oppose the war.

Or maybe, they tell so on different surveys, because anti-war position is not exactly approved by Russian government as far as I know. Or perhaps, surveys are conducted in such ways, that they handpick certain demographics, who are more likely to approve the war.

[The Archregimancy]

This whole 'sponsoring a Ukrainian refugee to bring them to the UK' lark is proving to be rather more frustrating than anticipated - even with a Russian-speaking wife who's the granddaughter of an Orthodox archpriest doing most of the work.

We have two refugees we're willing to sponsor and house - one already in Poland, the other still in Ukraine (not sharing more details for obvious privacy reasons) - but the bureaucracy seems to have been developed by a particularly officious minor character in a Kafka novel with the sole purpose of making it as difficult as possible to actually complete the process.

[Australian rePublic]

On average most of the Russians seem to think they are justified in conquering Ukraine, so I only sympathize with the Russians who oppose the war.

Or maybe, they tell so on different surveys, because anti-war position is not exactly approved by Russian government as far as I know. Or perhaps, surveys are conducted in such ways, that they handpick certain demographics, who are more likely to approve the war.

There's a third option- all their bullshit propaganda is leading them to believe that war is actually just

[Australian rePublic]

Japan's Mitsui & Co. and Mitsubishi Group announced that they would not suspend their participation in the Russian "Sakhalin-2" project.
Russian ruble has returned to pre-war levels
So people are verbally stubborn, but their bodies are still very honest.

I wonder if these companies helped produce the weapons that were used in the Rape of Nam King. If so, I am genuinely and unsarcastically impressed with how far the Japanese have come since WWII and highly commend them for their great reforms. (If not, I am still just as impressed)

[Vassenor]

This whole 'sponsoring a Ukrainian refugee to bring them to the UK' lark is proving to be rather more frustrating than anticipated - even with a Russian-speaking wife who's the granddaughter of an Orthodox archpriest doing most of the work.

We have two refugees we're willing to sponsor and house - one already in Poland, the other still in Ukraine (not sharing more details for obvious privacy reasons) - but the bureaucracy seems to have been developed by a particularly officious minor character in a Kafka novel with the sole purpose of making it as difficult as possible to actually complete the process.

Because that’s what happens when you put a refugee visa system in the hands of a notoriously anti-immigration government.

[The Archregimancy]

This whole 'sponsoring a Ukrainian refugee to bring them to the UK' lark is proving to be rather more frustrating than anticipated - even with a Russian-speaking wife who's the granddaughter of an Orthodox archpriest doing most of the work.

We have two refugees we're willing to sponsor and house - one already in Poland, the other still in Ukraine (not sharing more details for obvious privacy reasons) - but the bureaucracy seems to have been developed by a particularly officious minor character in a Kafka novel with the sole purpose of making it as difficult as possible to actually complete the process.

Because that’s what happens when you put a refugee visa system in the hands of a notoriously anti-immigration government.

For the record, I'm not attempting above to score political points on UK government policy. Yes, my post expresses frustration, but there are more immediate practical issues for us to worry about in making this work.

I can't of, course, stop other people from attempting to score cheap political points off the back of my post; but no one should assume that I necessarily endorse them.