Ukrainian Invasion Thread II: Sunrise on the Dnieper

[El Lazaro]

The complete lack of interoperability from the Russians has simply been astounding. It's not even like it's a new concept, pretty much everyone has understood how important it is for several decades now (if not since WW2), and they're still failing it on pretty much all levels. Even now over a month into the war you can still find recent videos of armor driving around with no supporting infantry and the Russians still don't have air superiority. It's an embarrassment.

Corruption. It's not the only factor of course, but the majority of us who live in Western countries take for granted just how transparent—relatively speaking—our countries operate.

Well, you folks can. I'm Turkish, and we've got plenty of corruption compared to Europe, particularly in the last decade. And we can see the adverse effects of corruption directly, albeit in fields other than armed conflict, but that's beyond the scope. Point is, people like to say "well the West is corrupt too!" which, while technically true, has the side effect of making the corruption seem homogeneous and the same across the board. Corruption itself is a varied thing, i.e., not all corruption is the same.

Russia seems to have been affected by all the worst kinds of it, though, which isn't exactly something you can decouple from a centralised (in practice), authoritarian government. Hence the results we're seeing on the battlefield. Not that I'm complaining.

The Russian Ministry of Defense is the worst culprit out of the lot of them, it’s likely that a majority of the budget is lost to corruption. Beyond embezzlement of funds, it even goes as far as siphoning off fuels, stealing valuable parts from vehicles, and things like feeding soldiers dogs (yes, you heard that, the animal and not the food) instead of rations, although it seems like Russia dug up rations which expired 10 years ago instead this time.

[Utquiagvik]

I want to add that the expectations for Ukraine to have effective control over its army and a system for enforcing observation of human rights have to be within the context of an unexpected invasion and them needing to rapidly expand their army without major vetting and with a confusing situation on the ground, alongside the need to basically triple the number of officers they have.

It's entirely possible that the scale of incidents being committed by Ukrainian soldiers, if committed by a western army, would be entirely unacceptable and an indictment of that government because they would be expected to have constructed their army in such a way as to prevent incidents occuring at such a rate. This expectation cannot reasonably be placed on the Ukrainians given the self-defensive nature of the campaign and the need for rapid military expansion.

Thus while the individual soldiers remain culpable, the Ukrainian government has a lesser culpability in my opinion than they would if this were their "Regular" army rather than one rapidly conscripted and cobbled together in a rapid and chaotic fashion. The charge that "Ukraine is doing war crimes" is dubious at best as a result of that. I simply do not see how their government can be held responsible. "This Ukrainian soldier did a war crime" is entirely valid still.

And again, I think that carefully distinguishing between when a government can be reasonably expected to have a firm hold on its soldiers and a system for preventing and punishing in a rapid fashion where these excesses occur, and when that is an unreasonable expectation, can prevent us from lessening the burden of governments by being like "well this is just what Ukraine did and you didn't hold them responsible". For instance if we saw 1/1000 Ukrainian soldiers do a war crime, that is a markedly different matter to 1/1000 British or American troops doing so. I would view the latter as considerably more culpable for the behavior of their soldiers.

This is why Russia tit-for-tat'ing on this issue wouldn't hold water with me. "Well we both did war crimes so why are you picking on us?".

Because your army is decades old and the institutions should have prevented that and if they didn't it suggests the government has put zero effort into rooting that behavior out. Your officers are supposedly professional military men. I would be more willing to view Ukraine negatively over this if war crimes were being done by their pre-invasion officer corps and units as opposed to the "Well you've got a degree so you're an officer now" conscripts.

Tit for tat also won’t work for Russia because 100% of Ukrainian war crimes are directly caused by the Russian invasion. If Russia was really so upset at these war crimes, then they could leave at any time and end the war in an instant.

But they don’t. Instead they bombard Mariupol and every kindergarten they can find.

Putin has no regrets. he has no guilt or shame for the innocents hes murdered.

[Christian Confederation]

Any hope for the Istanbul talks?

[Novus America]

Tit for tat also won’t work for Russia because 100% of Ukrainian war crimes are directly caused by the Russian invasion. If Russia was really so upset at these war crimes, then they could leave at any time and end the war in an instant.

But they don’t. Instead they bombard Mariupol and every kindergarten they can find.

Putin has no regrets. he has no guilt or shame for the innocents hes murdered.

Unfortunately true. Which makes it more impossible to sympathize. Putin is a pure sociopath. No regard for any external morality, no regard for human life, even of his own countrymen, and a coward to boot.

Some Ukrainians going rogue is different than the entire Russian state being a criminal enterprise.
Although it cannot be really said Putin’s Russia went rogue though being that sociopathic criminality has always been not just a feature, but in fact a central pillar of his regime.

And there are not real functioning independent institutions, Putin is the government and the government is Putin.
So that which is attributable to one is equally attributable to the other.

[Bewaffnete Krafte]

Any hope for the Istanbul talks?

Zelenskyy DID say he'd be willing to genuinely forever block Ukraine from Joining NATO if that brought peace (i think, idk if it's true), so it looks like they are trying to reach some kind of deal.

[Vistulange]

Any hope for the Istanbul talks?

Turkish media is uncharacteristically mum on the talks. Whatever they're printing, be it pro-government or pro-opposition, is quotes from Ukrainian or Russian officials, nothing from the Turkish folks. Pro-government daily Sabah has an article whose title can roughly be translated to "footsteps of peace following Istanbul summit", but it's clickbait (surprise, surprise): all it shares is Zelensky's statement that they'd put an agreement to a referendum; nothing new. Opposition daily Cumhuriyet has statements from one Vladimir Medinsky, but it's all stuff we know.

So yeah, nothing new just yet, it would seem.

[Bewaffnete Krafte]

Whoah, What?
On Wikipedia, It appears Russian estimates for their own losses are now HIGHER than Ukraine's estimates for russia's losses. What?
wiki article

[Kubra]

The most famous one appears to be real, the location isn't under Russian control (according to NYT) and it was posted by Konstantin Nemichev.

The document ordering fake torture videos has been verified as fake itself by Western sources, of course this isn't conclusive proof it isn't happening.

Honestly with how brutal this war is I'd be more surprised if it turned out there weren't executions of PoWs from either side.

As far as war crimes go preventing executions of PoW's is generally the hardest one to enforce, for obvious reasons.

[The Alma Mater]

Whoah, What?
On Wikipedia, It appears Russian estimates for their own losses are now HIGHER than Ukraine's estimates for russia's losses. What?
wiki article

Sounds like a good reason for Russians to justify the use of serious weapons...

[Novus America]

Any hope for the Istanbul talks?

Zelenskyy DID say he'd be willing to genuinely forever block Ukraine from Joining NATO if that brought peace, so it looks like they are trying to reach some kind of deal.

Well forever does not exist, especially in foreign policy, something Putin and Russia cannot seem to understand, you cannot freeze time, and times change.

One would have to see the terms of the treaty, a treaty with no exit clause is assumed to be able to be unilaterally renounced by either at any time. And such a treaty could be claimed to be inherently voidable by Ukraine as it was act gun point. I assume Russia would require any exit to require Russia agree, but the validity of that could be questionable.

But yes Zelensky is willing to compromise. But he has pointed out he is not a dictator and such a treaty would need to be supported by a referendum and the appropriate majority of Parliament.

Unlike Putin he cannot simply force conditions on his own people at gun point.

Putin can arbitrarily pick whatever he chooses to accept. But will he accept any reasonable compromise?

[El Lazaro]

Whoah, What?
On Wikipedia, It appears Russian estimates for their own losses are now HIGHER than Ukraine's estimates for russia's losses. What?
wiki article

Those are very outdated numbers for Ukraine’s estimate, 1400 is nowhere near the most conservative estimates from non-Kremlin sources.

[Bewaffnete Krafte]

Whoah, What?
On Wikipedia, It appears Russian estimates for their own losses are now HIGHER than Ukraine's estimates for russia's losses. What?
wiki article

Those are very outdated numbers for Ukraine’s estimate, 1400 is nowhere near the most conservative estimates from non-Kremlin sources.

To be fair, NATO's putting Russia's losses at 30-40k, Which I think we all know is... Unlikely? IDK how long it takes to lose 30k soldiers in war, but it seems longer than this.

[Ostroeuropa]

Zelenskyy DID say he'd be willing to genuinely forever block Ukraine from Joining NATO if that brought peace, so it looks like they are trying to reach some kind of deal.

Well forever does not exist, especially in foreign policy, something Putin and Russia cannot seem to understand, you cannot freeze time, and times change.

One would have to see the terms of the treaty, a treaty with no exit clause is assumed to be able to be unilaterally renounced by either at any time. And such a treaty could be claimed to be inherently voidable by Ukraine as it was act gun point. I assume Russia would require any exit to require Russia agree, but the validity of that could be questionable.

But yes Zelensky is willing to compromise. But he has pointed out he is not a dictator and such a treaty would need to be supported by a referendum and the appropriate majority of Parliament.

Unlike Putin he cannot simply force conditions on his own people at gun point.

Putin can arbitrarily pick whatever he chooses to accept. But will he accept any reasonable compromise?

The "reasonable compromise" would be that Russia agrees to war reperations contingent on Ukraine not joining NATO, with the exit clause being that Ukraine joining NATO voids Russia's reperation obligations. Russia vacates the territory.

This provides some measure of justice for Ukraine and allows Russia to partially save face, while ultimately it means that eventually, Ukraine will join NATO at some point in the future when the debt is paid, or can decide to do so if they are content to have Russia vacate its reperations.

At that point a NATO referendum has some meaningful question to put to the Ukrainian people rather than it being a farce with a guaranteed 99% "Yes Join NATO" outcome. It may be that Ukraine will nonetheless decide to join NATO and will abandon a claim to Russian reperations in order to emphasize this. (The western powers will likely invest heavily in Ukraine at any rate).

I think this is the most Russia can possibly expect in terms of concessions to them frankly. A voiding of their financial obligation to Ukraine would be a factor in considerations over sanctions. I sorely doubt other powers will be willing to lift sanctions on Russia until arrangements are made by Russia to handle their financial obligations to Ukraine. Either them paying reperations or Ukraine voiding the debt in some manner like discussed here would be the first condition before a discussion can even begin.

It is not the only consideration however. It is a necessary but not sufficient requirement.

War reperations could feasibly kick the can down the road 100 years or so if Ukraine would prefer those Reperations over NATO membership. They often take a long while to pay. In strategic terms that is for all intents and purposes what Russia wants given that "forever" is a laughable non-starter both legally, ethically, and practically. However this would also respect Ukrainian sovereignty and leave them the option of membership, albeit at a certain cost, essentially an option to return to the status quo ante-bellum for Ukraine.

[El Lazaro]

Any hope for the Istanbul talks?

Zelenskyy DID say he'd be willing to genuinely forever block Ukraine from Joining NATO if that brought peace (i think, idk if it's true), so it looks like they are trying to reach some kind of deal.

The deal would involve another power coming to the defense of Ukraine if it was invaded, which is the reason they wanted to join NATO in the first place.

Putin allegedly responded by saying “tell [Zelensky] I will thrash [Ukraine],” according to Abramovich, when he was presented the terms.

[Bewaffnete Krafte]

Zelenskyy DID say he'd be willing to genuinely forever block Ukraine from Joining NATO if that brought peace (i think, idk if it's true), so it looks like they are trying to reach some kind of deal.

The deal would involve another power coming to the defense of Ukraine if it was invaded, which is the reason they wanted to join NATO in the first place.

Putin allegedly responded by saying “tell [Zelensky] I will thrash [Ukraine],” according to Abramovich, when he was presented the terms.

I've only heard the word thrash used once before.
And I'm not trying to make any point, but like, im JUST saying...
Putin is lancer???

[Spirit of Hope]

Grain of salt, but NYT reporting that Putin is receiving misinformation from his subordinates, including on details like the deployment of conscripts, military progress and economic damages.

WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has been misinformed by his advisers about the Russian military’s struggles in Ukraine, according to declassified U.S. intelligence.

The intelligence, according to multiple U.S. officials, shows what appears to be growing tension between Mr. Putin and the Ministry of Defense, including with the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin’s inner circle.

Speaking in Algiers, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken acknowledged Mr. Putin had been given less than truthful information from his advisers.

“With regard to President Putin, look, what I can tell you is this, and I said this before, one of the Achilles' heel of autocracies is that you don’t have people in those systems who speak truth to power or who have the ability to speak truth to power,” Mr. Blinken said. “And I think that is something that we’re seeing in Russia.”

Other American officials have said that Mr. Putin’s rigid isolation during the pandemic and willingness to publicly rebuke advisers who do not share his views have created a degree of wariness, or even fear, in senior ranks of the Russian military. Officials believe that Mr. Putin is getting incomplete or overly optimistic reports about the progress of Russian forces

Mr. Putin seemed genuinely unaware that the Russian military had been using conscripts in Ukraine, and that drafted soldiers were among those killed in action, according to the U.S. officials. Mr. Putin’s ignorance showed “a clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information to the Russian president,” according to a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the declassified, but still sensitive, material. There “is now persistent tension” between Mr. Putin and the Defense Ministry, the official said.

The American intelligence assessment also said that Mr. Putin had an incomplete understanding about how damaging Western sanctions had been on the Russian economy, officials said.

The war continues to go poorly for Russian forces. Ukraine’s military has not only held its own but also begun counterattacking. Some U.S. officials believe that senior Russian officials are wary of delivering truthful assessments — potentially afraid that the messengers of bad news will be held responsible for the battlefield failures.

The Russian military’s stumbles have eroded trust between Mr. Putin and his Ministry of Defense. While Mr. Shoigu had been considered one of the few advisers Mr. Putin confided in, the prosecution of the war in Ukraine has damaged the relationship.

Mr. Putin has put two top intelligence officials under house arrest for providing poor intelligence ahead of the invasion, something that may have further contributed to the climate of fear.

With evidence of Mr. Putin’s frustration growing, the United States has in recent weeks been building up an intelligence case that he had not been getting accurate assessments from the Ministry of Defense and other senior officials. The U.S. officials believe that Mr. Putin is continuing to be misled and that senior advisers are unwilling to tell the truth.

What American intelligence sources there might be in the Kremlin is a tightly held secret. But since Russia began its troop buildup along Ukraine’s borders last year, U.S. intelligence officials have accurately predicted Mr. Putin’s moves.

The declassified information was reported earlier on Wednesday by The Associated Press.

Russian forces announced a shift in their posture around Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, on Tuesday, though American officials voiced skepticism that Russia was stopping its attacks as a peace gesture. Rather, some believe the moves are a further sign that Russia is adjusting its failing strategy.It is also possible that the shifting strategy is a sign of dysfunction and miscommunication in the upper ranks of the Russian Defense Ministry.

[American Legionaries]

Grain of salt, but NYT reporting that Putin is receiving misinformation from his subordinates, including on details like the deployment of conscripts, military progress and economic damages.

WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has been misinformed by his advisers about the Russian military’s struggles in Ukraine, according to declassified U.S. intelligence.

The intelligence, according to multiple U.S. officials, shows what appears to be growing tension between Mr. Putin and the Ministry of Defense, including with the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin’s inner circle.

Speaking in Algiers, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken acknowledged Mr. Putin had been given less than truthful information from his advisers.

“With regard to President Putin, look, what I can tell you is this, and I said this before, one of the Achilles' heel of autocracies is that you don’t have people in those systems who speak truth to power or who have the ability to speak truth to power,” Mr. Blinken said. “And I think that is something that we’re seeing in Russia.”

Other American officials have said that Mr. Putin’s rigid isolation during the pandemic and willingness to publicly rebuke advisers who do not share his views have created a degree of wariness, or even fear, in senior ranks of the Russian military. Officials believe that Mr. Putin is getting incomplete or overly optimistic reports about the progress of Russian forces

Mr. Putin seemed genuinely unaware that the Russian military had been using conscripts in Ukraine, and that drafted soldiers were among those killed in action, according to the U.S. officials. Mr. Putin’s ignorance showed “a clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information to the Russian president,” according to a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the declassified, but still sensitive, material. There “is now persistent tension” between Mr. Putin and the Defense Ministry, the official said.

The American intelligence assessment also said that Mr. Putin had an incomplete understanding about how damaging Western sanctions had been on the Russian economy, officials said.

The war continues to go poorly for Russian forces. Ukraine’s military has not only held its own but also begun counterattacking. Some U.S. officials believe that senior Russian officials are wary of delivering truthful assessments — potentially afraid that the messengers of bad news will be held responsible for the battlefield failures.

The Russian military’s stumbles have eroded trust between Mr. Putin and his Ministry of Defense. While Mr. Shoigu had been considered one of the few advisers Mr. Putin confided in, the prosecution of the war in Ukraine has damaged the relationship.

Mr. Putin has put two top intelligence officials under house arrest for providing poor intelligence ahead of the invasion, something that may have further contributed to the climate of fear.

With evidence of Mr. Putin’s frustration growing, the United States has in recent weeks been building up an intelligence case that he had not been getting accurate assessments from the Ministry of Defense and other senior officials. The U.S. officials believe that Mr. Putin is continuing to be misled and that senior advisers are unwilling to tell the truth.

What American intelligence sources there might be in the Kremlin is a tightly held secret. But since Russia began its troop buildup along Ukraine’s borders last year, U.S. intelligence officials have accurately predicted Mr. Putin’s moves.

The declassified information was reported earlier on Wednesday by The Associated Press.

Russian forces announced a shift in their posture around Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, on Tuesday, though American officials voiced skepticism that Russia was stopping its attacks as a peace gesture. Rather, some believe the moves are a further sign that Russia is adjusting its failing strategy.It is also possible that the shifting strategy is a sign of dysfunction and miscommunication in the upper ranks of the Russian Defense Ministry.

It's reasonable to assume, given the rumors of him punishing military officers, that this is occurring to some degree.

No telling if it's enough to seriously hamper the government's capacity to make decisions.

[United Valik]

Ah, lying to the Boss. That fine old Russian/Soviet custom, very old indeed.

[Tarsonis]

Ah, lying to the Boss. That fine old Russian/Soviet custom, very old indeed.

3.6 Roentgen. not great not terrible.

[The North Polish Union]

The ruble is the best-performing currency of March.

"Analysts, however, say the recovery in the ruble suggests the impact of the West’s economic sanctions are much lower than anticipated initially. “The sanctions and curbs had created insolvency risks for the Russian economy, leading to a big sell-off in the ruble.

The economic stress has, however, lessened considerably as European countries continue to buy oil and gas from Russia, and major emerging markets including China continue to trade with Russia,” said Dhananjay Sinha, managing director and chief strategist, JM Finance Institutional Equity."

[Spirit of Hope]

Grain of salt, but NYT reporting that Putin is receiving misinformation from his subordinates, including on details like the deployment of conscripts, military progress and economic damages.

WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has been misinformed by his advisers about the Russian military’s struggles in Ukraine, according to declassified U.S. intelligence.

The intelligence, according to multiple U.S. officials, shows what appears to be growing tension between Mr. Putin and the Ministry of Defense, including with the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin’s inner circle.

Speaking in Algiers, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken acknowledged Mr. Putin had been given less than truthful information from his advisers.

“With regard to President Putin, look, what I can tell you is this, and I said this before, one of the Achilles' heel of autocracies is that you don’t have people in those systems who speak truth to power or who have the ability to speak truth to power,” Mr. Blinken said. “And I think that is something that we’re seeing in Russia.”

Other American officials have said that Mr. Putin’s rigid isolation during the pandemic and willingness to publicly rebuke advisers who do not share his views have created a degree of wariness, or even fear, in senior ranks of the Russian military. Officials believe that Mr. Putin is getting incomplete or overly optimistic reports about the progress of Russian forces

Mr. Putin seemed genuinely unaware that the Russian military had been using conscripts in Ukraine, and that drafted soldiers were among those killed in action, according to the U.S. officials. Mr. Putin’s ignorance showed “a clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information to the Russian president,” according to a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the declassified, but still sensitive, material. There “is now persistent tension” between Mr. Putin and the Defense Ministry, the official said.

The American intelligence assessment also said that Mr. Putin had an incomplete understanding about how damaging Western sanctions had been on the Russian economy, officials said.

The war continues to go poorly for Russian forces. Ukraine’s military has not only held its own but also begun counterattacking. Some U.S. officials believe that senior Russian officials are wary of delivering truthful assessments — potentially afraid that the messengers of bad news will be held responsible for the battlefield failures.

The Russian military’s stumbles have eroded trust between Mr. Putin and his Ministry of Defense. While Mr. Shoigu had been considered one of the few advisers Mr. Putin confided in, the prosecution of the war in Ukraine has damaged the relationship.

Mr. Putin has put two top intelligence officials under house arrest for providing poor intelligence ahead of the invasion, something that may have further contributed to the climate of fear.

With evidence of Mr. Putin’s frustration growing, the United States has in recent weeks been building up an intelligence case that he had not been getting accurate assessments from the Ministry of Defense and other senior officials. The U.S. officials believe that Mr. Putin is continuing to be misled and that senior advisers are unwilling to tell the truth.

What American intelligence sources there might be in the Kremlin is a tightly held secret. But since Russia began its troop buildup along Ukraine’s borders last year, U.S. intelligence officials have accurately predicted Mr. Putin’s moves.

The declassified information was reported earlier on Wednesday by The Associated Press.

Russian forces announced a shift in their posture around Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, on Tuesday, though American officials voiced skepticism that Russia was stopping its attacks as a peace gesture. Rather, some believe the moves are a further sign that Russia is adjusting its failing strategy.It is also possible that the shifting strategy is a sign of dysfunction and miscommunication in the upper ranks of the Russian Defense Ministry.

It's reasonable to assume, given the rumors of him punishing military officers, that this is occurring to some degree.

No telling if it's enough to seriously hamper the government's capacity to make decisions.

I just found the level that the NYT/US intelligence community are reporting to be interesting. Specifically the bit about conscripts. Given the size of the deployment to Ukraine and the structure of the Russian armed forces it would be hard for Russia not to use conscripts in the operation, especially as replacements are needed to bring units back up to fighting strength after combat losses.

For obvious domestic political reasons Putin probably wanted to avoid conscripts serving, and being killed, in the invasion.

[Novus America]

Grain of salt, but NYT reporting that Putin is receiving misinformation from his subordinates, including on details like the deployment of conscripts, military progress and economic damages.

WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has been misinformed by his advisers about the Russian military’s struggles in Ukraine, according to declassified U.S. intelligence.

The intelligence, according to multiple U.S. officials, shows what appears to be growing tension between Mr. Putin and the Ministry of Defense, including with the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin’s inner circle.

Speaking in Algiers, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken acknowledged Mr. Putin had been given less than truthful information from his advisers.

“With regard to President Putin, look, what I can tell you is this, and I said this before, one of the Achilles' heel of autocracies is that you don’t have people in those systems who speak truth to power or who have the ability to speak truth to power,” Mr. Blinken said. “And I think that is something that we’re seeing in Russia.”

Other American officials have said that Mr. Putin’s rigid isolation during the pandemic and willingness to publicly rebuke advisers who do not share his views have created a degree of wariness, or even fear, in senior ranks of the Russian military. Officials believe that Mr. Putin is getting incomplete or overly optimistic reports about the progress of Russian forces

Mr. Putin seemed genuinely unaware that the Russian military had been using conscripts in Ukraine, and that drafted soldiers were among those killed in action, according to the U.S. officials. Mr. Putin’s ignorance showed “a clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information to the Russian president,” according to a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the declassified, but still sensitive, material. There “is now persistent tension” between Mr. Putin and the Defense Ministry, the official said.

The American intelligence assessment also said that Mr. Putin had an incomplete understanding about how damaging Western sanctions had been on the Russian economy, officials said.

The war continues to go poorly for Russian forces. Ukraine’s military has not only held its own but also begun counterattacking. Some U.S. officials believe that senior Russian officials are wary of delivering truthful assessments — potentially afraid that the messengers of bad news will be held responsible for the battlefield failures.

The Russian military’s stumbles have eroded trust between Mr. Putin and his Ministry of Defense. While Mr. Shoigu had been considered one of the few advisers Mr. Putin confided in, the prosecution of the war in Ukraine has damaged the relationship.

Mr. Putin has put two top intelligence officials under house arrest for providing poor intelligence ahead of the invasion, something that may have further contributed to the climate of fear.

With evidence of Mr. Putin’s frustration growing, the United States has in recent weeks been building up an intelligence case that he had not been getting accurate assessments from the Ministry of Defense and other senior officials. The U.S. officials believe that Mr. Putin is continuing to be misled and that senior advisers are unwilling to tell the truth.

What American intelligence sources there might be in the Kremlin is a tightly held secret. But since Russia began its troop buildup along Ukraine’s borders last year, U.S. intelligence officials have accurately predicted Mr. Putin’s moves.

The declassified information was reported earlier on Wednesday by The Associated Press.

Russian forces announced a shift in their posture around Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, on Tuesday, though American officials voiced skepticism that Russia was stopping its attacks as a peace gesture. Rather, some believe the moves are a further sign that Russia is adjusting its failing strategy.It is also possible that the shifting strategy is a sign of dysfunction and miscommunication in the upper ranks of the Russian Defense Ministry.

It is almost certainly true, to some degree. This is a common problem in late stage dictatorships.
Especially with a leader as paranoid and isolated as Putin, but such paranoia and isolation are also the common outcome of dictatorship.

Nobody wants to report failures for fear of being punished, and there are no independent institutions left, the leader relies on information from yes men, who have every incentive to lie.

A system built on lies cuts both ways. It lies to you, you lie to it, so it believes its own lies and neither you or it can fully separate the truth from the lies.
Even when it wants the truth it cannot get the truth and it can no longer differentiate between the truth and its own lies.

This is the importance of independent institutions that can call out those in power. But Russia was never big on those.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Ah, lying to the Boss. That fine old Russian/Soviet custom, very old indeed.

3.6 Roentgen. not great not terrible.

"I um, I walked around the exterior of Kharkov. I think there are T-90s being towed away by Farmers on Tractors"
"You didn't see T-90s being towed away"
"I did-
"You didnt. YOU DIDNT! BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT THERE!"

[Novus America]

The ruble is the best-performing currency of March.

"Analysts, however, say the recovery in the ruble suggests the impact of the West’s economic sanctions are much lower than anticipated initially. “The sanctions and curbs had created insolvency risks for the Russian economy, leading to a big sell-off in the ruble.

The economic stress has, however, lessened considerably as European countries continue to buy oil and gas from Russia, and major emerging markets including China continue to trade with Russia,” said Dhananjay Sinha, managing director and chief strategist, JM Finance Institutional Equity."

Unfortunately that is the inevitable outcome of the “we sanction everything except the most important thing”.
Long term though Russia still has a problem because Europe has finally awoken to the fact that Russia gas is literally and figuratively toxic.

And it might be sooner than later based on the Rouble demand issue.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/03/30/ger ... ussia.html

Sanctions on Russia will never work as long as oil and gas stay exempt.
Hopefully though that is not forever. Europe is scrambling to cut back on Russian oil and gas.
But it will take years most likely.

[Novus America]

Actually it turns out Russia folded:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-03-30/
Gas and oil will not be required to be paid in roubles after all.

Russia bluffed, Europe called it, Russia backed down.

We should be so afraid of calling Russia’s bluffs.