Ukrainian Invasion Thread II: Sunrise on the Dnieper

[Hurtful Thoughts]

Didn't the US basing of nuclear SRBMs in Turkey nearly start WW3, though?

Since that prompted Cuba to get some as well... the rest was kinda fictionalized in NS-lore.

TFW America has detonated enough nuclear weapons over the years that using stock footage is still easier than using CGI.

Kind of. Admittedly, the scholarly consensus there is, uh...a little trickier. I'd explain further, but this isn't the thread for it; nor do I have the time to dig up a bunch of articles, or worse, go down to the university library to borrow books, real books.

But I'm mostly being nitpicky. The essential, key takeaway of the readings I've done on the topic is that it wasn't really the MRBMs that were a problem. Let me be more specific: the MRBMs, both in Cuba and in Turkey, didn't present any new existential threat to the two sides. By the time the crisis rolled around, both sides already had successful ICBM launches—both sides had operational ICBMs in 1959—so the only difference was "does our country get bathed in nuclear fire in 5 minutes, or 20 minutes" which isn't really a difference. Instead, it was more of a prestige issue, i.e., "can't be having Soviet missiles in our backyard" and vice versa. That's also why Khrushchev got removed, they extrapolate, because the issue wasn't precisely an issue of the missiles being removed—it was that the Soviets were publicly humiliated in doing so, whereas the US quietly withdrew the Jupiter missiles from Turkey.

Anyway, it was a close call, but I think the scholarly community agrees that the priority on both sides was "how do we not end the fucking world tomorrow".

It was actually closer to 40 minutes, maybe much as an hour and a half, excluding SLBMs launching suicidally close.

Plus, with a few guided missiles/jamming, you can open a channel through the IADS large enough to send a few cruise missiles in unnoticed. Theoretically making a decapitating strike feasible.

[Dtn]

This is how I would have done it

1. Secure all land around the black sea
2. Take the sepretist areas and parts near northern Belarus
3. Devistate Ukrainian Infustructure
4. Seize ukrainian air-feilds and air ports
5. Burn there farms to the ground starving them
6. Crush resistance and take the capital while your at it
7. Take over ukraine
8. kill zelenski in a dramatic way invocing russian nationalism

how would anyone else have done it?

Hmm...if I called myself a groyper the first step in my plan would be something relatively simple like "get a girlfriend," the more complicated stuff like "secure all land around the black sea" would come later.

[Prima Scriptura]

This is how I would have done it

1. Secure all land around the black sea
2. Take the sepretist areas and parts near northern Belarus
3. Devistate Ukrainian Infustructure
4. Seize ukrainian air-feilds and air ports
5. Burn there farms to the ground starving them
6. Crush resistance and take the capital while your at it
7. Take over ukraine
8. kill zelenski in a dramatic way invocing russian nationalism

how would anyone else have done it?

Russia tried most of the things you listed, and it failed.

[Latorik]

russians attempted all of these and failed horribly

if it failed and I was Putin just bomb the shit out of them until they agree to my terms.

and then whatever bombers you can get in the sky are interdicted by Migs or shot down by S-300s

Russia has fallen flat on its face at every point throughout this invasion to maintain air superiority, or even neutralize existing air defenses. Loss rate of ninety aircraft, plus over a hundred helicopters.

[Prima Scriptura]

This is how I would have done it

1. Secure all land around the black sea
2. Take the sepretist areas and parts near northern Belarus
3. Devistate Ukrainian Infustructure
4. Seize ukrainian air-feilds and air ports
5. Burn there farms to the ground starving them
6. Crush resistance and take the capital while your at it
7. Take over ukraine
8. kill zelenski in a dramatic way invocing russian nationalism

how would anyone else have done it?

Hmm...if I called myself a groyper the first step in my plan would be something relatively simple like "get a girlfriend," the more complicated stuff like "secure all land around the black sea" would come later.

Or become a based volcel, rather then blaming women for it dating them.

[Necroghastia]

This is how I would have done it

1. Secure all land around the black sea
2. Take the sepretist areas and parts near northern Belarus
3. Devistate Ukrainian Infustructure
4. Seize ukrainian air-feilds and air ports
5. Burn there farms to the ground starving them
6. Crush resistance and take the capital while your at it
7. Take over ukraine
8. kill zelenski in a dramatic way invocing russian nationalism

how would anyone else have done it?

Hmm...if I called myself a groyper the first step in my plan would be something relatively simple like "get a girlfriend," the more complicated stuff like "secure all land around the black sea" would come later.

I'd start with learning to spell, myself.

[Vistulange]

Kind of. Admittedly, the scholarly consensus there is, uh...a little trickier. I'd explain further, but this isn't the thread for it; nor do I have the time to dig up a bunch of articles, or worse, go down to the university library to borrow books, real books.

But I'm mostly being nitpicky. The essential, key takeaway of the readings I've done on the topic is that it wasn't really the MRBMs that were a problem. Let me be more specific: the MRBMs, both in Cuba and in Turkey, didn't present any new existential threat to the two sides. By the time the crisis rolled around, both sides already had successful ICBM launches—both sides had operational ICBMs in 1959—so the only difference was "does our country get bathed in nuclear fire in 5 minutes, or 20 minutes" which isn't really a difference. Instead, it was more of a prestige issue, i.e., "can't be having Soviet missiles in our backyard" and vice versa. That's also why Khrushchev got removed, they extrapolate, because the issue wasn't precisely an issue of the missiles being removed—it was that the Soviets were publicly humiliated in doing so, whereas the US quietly withdrew the Jupiter missiles from Turkey.

Anyway, it was a close call, but I think the scholarly community agrees that the priority on both sides was "how do we not end the fucking world tomorrow".

It was actually closer to 40 minutes, maybe much as an hour and a half, excluding SLBMs launching suicidally close.

Plus, with a few guided missiles/jamming, you can open a channel through the IADS large enough to send a few cruise missiles in unnoticed. Theoretically making a decapitating strike feasible.

I mean, sure, I guess? 20 minutes, 40 minutes, whatever—there's no practical difference. That's the whole point of my post.

[Picairn]

This is how I would have done it

1. Secure all land around the black sea
2. Take the sepretist areas and parts near northern Belarus
3. Devistate Ukrainian Infustructure
4. Seize ukrainian air-feilds and air ports
5. Burn there farms to the ground starving them
6. Crush resistance and take the capital while your at it
7. Take over ukraine
8. kill zelenski in a dramatic way invocing russian nationalism

how would anyone else have done it?

1. Partially completed, except for Odessa. An unsupported naval landing there would be a disaster though.
2. Nearly completed.
3. This requires aerial supremacy and an active air force capable of carrying out strategic bombing campaigns, both of which Russia appears to lack.
4. 10th Battle of Hostomel Airport, here we come! Crete and Market Garden (as well as this war) have demonstrated that without ground and air support paratroopers would be mauled really quickly in heavily defended areas.
5. See point 3.
6. Urban combat is a bitch, you'll take months to flatten the cities and capital.
7. Sounds so easy compared to reality on the ground.
8. Russia already sent commandos and agents to assassinate him, didn't work.

If I were trying to take all of Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe, I'd prepare at least 500,000 troops and way more equipments than the ramshackle 200,000 Russia is fielding. Seriously, that damn country is larger than Poland or Germany, and has been training its army up to NATO standards since 2014.

200,000 in the context of the Russian army might be more fit to capture the South and the Donbass region, not trying to take Kyiv.

[United Valik]

Before one cries havoc and let slips the dogs of war, one should take care that said dogs aren't rabid. Putin is learning this the very hard way.

[Archinstinct]

its victory or nothing for russia putin wont except defeat he will keep trying and eventually the ukrainians will lose.

Ah the smell of fresh butthurt in the morning of angry z's makes me smile.

Fuck Putin.

[Diuhon]

This is how I would have done it

1. Secure all land around the black sea
2. Take the sepretist areas and parts near northern Belarus
3. Devistate Ukrainian Infustructure
4. Seize ukrainian air-feilds and air ports
5. Burn there farms to the ground starving them
6. Crush resistance and take the capital while your at it
7. Take over ukraine
8. kill zelenski in a dramatic way invocing russian nationalism

how would anyone else have done it?

i would've done it by first not doing any of this bullshit

then ordering the deaths of anyone i know is not only authoritarian but eager to take my place

then declaring myself deposed and willing to face trial for my crimes against humanity, russian and not

so as to facilitate the emergence of a truly democratic russia, not the failure that i took advantage of to begin with

[Diuhon]

8th grade groyper vs nsg, the fight of the century



I possibly agree on rushed but disagree on the second - failures were mainly on the tactical level.

"The plan failed!" is kind of a strange idea, a good plan preserves options even if one element fails and it seems fairly clear the Russians have more options than the Ukrainians at this point. You could see the current situation begin to develop weeks ago. It's obvious when you consider how a cauldron works.

Too bad the mil realism thread is dead, the weird ideological battles of nsg are too tedious for me.

spot on, And the groypers will win because we never cede ground

except in reality

[New Baltenstein]

Before one cries havoc and let slips the dogs of war, one should take care that said dogs aren't rabid.

Also one shouldn't fool himself into thinking that one's dogs of war are healthy and eager Dobermanns when they are actually geriatric Dachshunds

[Archinstinct]

8th grade groyper vs nsg, the fight of the century



I possibly agree on rushed but disagree on the second - failures were mainly on the tactical level.

"The plan failed!" is kind of a strange idea, a good plan preserves options even if one element fails and it seems fairly clear the Russians have more options than the Ukrainians at this point. You could see the current situation begin to develop weeks ago. It's obvious when you consider how a cauldron works.

Too bad the mil realism thread is dead, the weird ideological battles of nsg are too tedious for me.

spot on, And the groypers will win because we never cede ground

Just make sure to carry a few sunflower seeds, so something nice grows from that patch of internet you're never going to give up.

[Picairn]

A team of the Foreign Legion participated in the liberation of Irpin yesterday.

[Vikanias]

A team of the Foreign Legion participated in the liberation of Irpin yesterday.

Hell yeah, every victory Ukraine and it’s foreign legion pals can get the better.

[The Alma Mater]

I missed this earlier, but last week the popular Russian cartoon Masyanya ("the Russian Southpark") adressed the war, calling the official Russian rhetoric lies, lamenting the loss of life on both sides and having the main character calling Putin a monster and offering him a sword with the suggestion he use it to commit seppuku.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzx_N8AJiKw

Russia is demanding the creators remove this episode from the internet "for misinformation".

[Dreria]

When you halt your advance into regions you wanted to capture and even begin to pull back yah its a retreat.

its victory or nothing for russia putin wont except defeat he will keep trying and eventually the ukrainians will lose.

*accept

[Laka Strolistandiler]

When you halt your advance into regions you wanted to capture and even begin to pull back yah its a retreat.

its victory or nothing for russia putin wont except defeat he will keep trying and eventually the ukrainians will lose.

Well they certainly thought the same way during the 1st Chechen war- and we all know how this has ended for ‘em…

[The Archregimancy]

I have a better suggestion.

Guarantee the independence of a neutral democratic Ukraine, and hand Constantinople to me.

I promise to take very good care of it.

I'm not greedy; I'd be happy with just the old city encompassed by the Theodosian walls - maybe with Galata thrown in so I can throw a chain across the Golden Horn when the mood takes me.

On two conditions: 1. You hold chariot races in the Hippodrome. 2. I can restore the Sassanian Empire, complete with Magi and Immortals.

Condition 1: That's surely a given under the circumstances.

Condition 2: Only if, assuming you succeed, we can sign an eternal (wink) peace.

[Alexander-of-Macedon]

spot on, And the groypers will win because we never cede ground

Just make sure to carry a few sunflower seeds, so something nice grows from that patch of internet you're never going to give up.

I dont know if you consider 2 Am Mincraft streams with Nick and his friends wholesome?

[Alexander-of-Macedon]

This is how I would have done it

1. Secure all land around the black sea
2. Take the sepretist areas and parts near northern Belarus
3. Devistate Ukrainian Infustructure
4. Seize ukrainian air-feilds and air ports
5. Burn there farms to the ground starving them
6. Crush resistance and take the capital while your at it
7. Take over ukraine
8. kill zelenski in a dramatic way invocing russian nationalism

how would anyone else have done it?

1. Partially completed, except for Odessa. An unsupported naval landing there would be a disaster though.
2. Nearly completed.
3. This requires aerial supremacy and an active air force capable of carrying out strategic bombing campaigns, both of which Russia appears to lack.
4. 10th Battle of Hostomel Airport, here we come! Crete and Market Garden (as well as this war) have demonstrated that without ground and air support paratroopers would be mauled really quickly in heavily defended areas.
5. See point 3.
6. Urban combat is a bitch, you'll take months to flatten the cities and capital.
7. Sounds so easy compared to reality on the ground.
8. Russia already sent commandos and agents to assassinate him, didn't work.

If I were trying to take all of Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe, I'd prepare at least 500,000 troops and way more equipments than the ramshackle 200,000 Russia is fielding. Seriously, that damn country is larger than Poland or Germany, and has been training its army up to NATO standards since 2014.

200,000 in the context of the Russian army might be more fit to capture the South and the Donbass region, not trying to take Kyiv.

Flatten Cities would not be good PR.

[The Lone Alliance]

This is how I would have done it

1. Secure all land around the black sea

Russia tried that, it was the only thing they did fairly competently but to be fair the Ukrainians helped by panicking in the South.

2. Take the sepretist areas and parts near northern Belarus

Russia is trying that only they're running into the bulk of the Ukrainian Army while doing so and the Ukrainian army had 8 years to dig in.

3. Devistate Ukrainian Infustructure

Not a good idea if you're planning on conquering Ukraine because now you're going to have to rebuild it with no economy.

4. Seize ukrainian air-feilds and air ports

Taking the airports in the middle of nowhere just would get all your parachutists killed, unless you can reinforce those airports within a day you're just getting your men killed for nothing.

5. Burn there farms to the ground starving them

You just pissed off China and Africa at the same time, because Ukraine feeds both areas, you just lost your last ally.

6. Crush resistance and take the capital while your at it

Tried that and failed and no you can't just artillery bomb a place into submission.

7. Take over ukraine

A place with no food, no infrastructure, and no future and how are you going to use Ukraine when the West cuts you off and even China has stopped speaking to you.

8. kill zelenski in a dramatic way invocing russian nationalism

You just destroyed all of your global prestige and even China hates you now. And it still won't make the Ukrainians accept Russian Rule. You'll just turn him into a martyr.

how would anyone else have done it?

In other words you want to do something even stupider than Russia's plan.

The only thing Russia could have done with the resources committed to this invasion would be to liberate Donbass and maybe create some breathing space around Crimea, taking the whole country with the forces available was an impossible task no matter how much you believe Russia Strong Memes.
And they've lost the Rest of Ukraine for good because the Ukrainians now have a near genocidal level of hatred for Russia.

The Ukrainian Army was never as bad as you thought it was and the Russian army was never as powerful as you thought it was, and no Russia cannot fight forever either, Russia's not going to give up 50,000 of their own lives over Ukraine. Not when they realized they've lost Ukraine for good culturally and morally.

Ukraine's made it quite clear that they'd let every inch of their country become a battleground before they'd peacefully accept slavery under Russia.

Russian nationalism is DEAD in Ukraine.

[Independent Cossack Ukraine]

A team of the Foreign Legion participated in the liberation of Irpin yesterday.

Notch another one up to the good guys! Glad the Foreign Legion could participate. Yet another strong force Ukraine can use.

[El Lazaro]

This is how I would have done it

1. Secure all land around the black sea
2. Take the sepretist areas and parts near northern Belarus
3. Devistate Ukrainian Infustructure
4. Seize ukrainian air-feilds and air ports
5. Burn there farms to the ground starving them
6. Crush resistance and take the capital while your at it
7. Take over ukraine
8. kill zelenski in a dramatic way invocing russian nationalism

how would anyone else have done it?

This is significantly dumber than the Russian plan, at least theirs made sense under the pretense that it would be extremely easy and nobody would want to resist. Their mistake was being lazy, arrogant, and reckless in their planning, not that they lacked the strategic genius of a basement groyper.

Btw people from Alexander the Great’s time believed he was attracted to boys, and he may have had sexual relations with men. While it is unclear whether he was actually gay, something tells me knowing there’s a chance would have discouraged you from naming yourself after him.