Ukrainian Invasion Thread II: Sunrise on the Dnieper

[Alexander-of-Macedon]

You cannot by definition retreat from an area you do not occupy. They've abandoned their goals in the West because they haven't secured the East; now they're redoubling their efforts in the East to consolidate their forces and regroup, likely for a future campaign in the West once the East has fallen.

Putin drastically overestimated how easily he could run over Ukraine and spread his forces too thin, now he's trying to get them back together having realized that there is no way to salvage his failed attempt at a blitzkrieg.

When you halt your advance into regions you wanted to capture and even begin to pull back yah its a retreat.

its victory or nothing for russia putin wont except defeat he will keep trying and eventually the ukrainians will lose.

[Big Bad Blue]

When you halt your advance into regions you wanted to capture and even begin to pull back yah its a retreat.

its victory or nothing for russia putin wont except defeat he will keep trying and eventually the ukrainians will lose.

"Germany's armed forces have advanced to prepared positions closer to the Fatherland!" -- OKW press release, 1945

[Alexander-of-Macedon]

its victory or nothing for russia putin wont except defeat he will keep trying and eventually the ukrainians will lose.

"Germany's armed forces have advanced to prepared positions closer to the Fatherland!" -- OKW press release, 1945

Modern day Germany would be steam rolled by russia if they gave germany everthing im talking in a 1v1 fight. Same strategy always works quantity is a quality of its own.

[Alexander-of-Macedon]

its victory or nothing for russia putin wont except defeat he will keep trying and eventually the ukrainians will lose.

"Germany's armed forces have advanced to prepared positions closer to the Fatherland!" -- OKW press release, 1945

¨And then they get pushed back to berlin and our leader shoots himself in a bunker¨

[Big Bad Blue]

"Germany's armed forces have advanced to prepared positions closer to the Fatherland!" -- OKW press release, 1945

Modern day Germany would be steam rolled by russia if they gave germany everthing im talking in a 1v1 fight. Same strategy always works quantity is a quality of its own.

Ukraine military spending, 2019-21: $5.2b

Germany military spending, 2019-21: $49.3b

The Bundeswehr would go through Putin's "army" like shit through a tinhorn and you know it.

https://rlist.io/l/europe-countries-wit ... ry-spendin

[The Two Jerseys]

"Germany's armed forces have advanced to prepared positions closer to the Fatherland!" -- OKW press release, 1945

Modern day Germany would be steam rolled by russia if they gave germany everthing im talking in a 1v1 fight. Same strategy always works quantity is a quality of its own.

You mean the same Russia whose logistics are failing after a 50-mile advance into Ukraine is somehow going to be able to keep their army going all the way to Berlin?

[Alexander-of-Macedon]

Modern day Germany would be steam rolled by russia if they gave germany everthing im talking in a 1v1 fight. Same strategy always works quantity is a quality of its own.

You mean the same Russia whose logistics are failing after a 50-mile advance into Ukraine is somehow going to be able to keep their army going all the way to Berlin?

If they solved the incompetence issue and moved all forces to attack germany then yes.

[Hurtful Thoughts]

You mean something like the Marshall-plan and follow-on Military Assistance Programs throughout the cold-war?

Yes, but I want it to be more comprehensive, so why wouldn't the United States give their weapons-making knowledge to the European Union countries ? we should all understand that it was the US government that provoked the fascist Putin. Today we see the terrible picture of the cold war in ukraine. While the fascists continue to protect their cold war economic interests, it is the Ukrainian people who are in bad shape. This is how I interpret this terrible event and I reject the capitalist system.

Didn't the US basing of nuclear SRBMs in Turkey nearly start WW3, though?

Since that prompted Cuba to get some as well... the rest was kinda fictionalized in NS-lore.

TFW America and USSR has detonated enough nuclear weapons over the years that using stock footage is still easier than using CGI.

[Big Bad Blue]

You mean the same Russia whose logistics are failing after a 50-mile advance into Ukraine is somehow going to be able to keep their army going all the way to Berlin?

If they solved the incompetence issue and moved all forces to attack germany then yes.

If Putin's grandma had had wheels he could bicycle to Berlin. Five gets you ten he's not in the Kremlin within the year.

[The Two Jerseys]

You mean the same Russia whose logistics are failing after a 50-mile advance into Ukraine is somehow going to be able to keep their army going all the way to Berlin?

If they solved the incompetence issue and moved all forces to attack germany then yes.

Russian logistics have sucked since forever, they ain't improving anytime soon.

[Alexander-of-Macedon]

I mean the ukrainians are really lucky Putin could have flattened every city in the country in a week if he went beserk.

[Latorik]

When you halt your advance into regions you wanted to capture and even begin to pull back yah its a retreat.

its victory or nothing for russia putin wont except defeat he will keep trying and eventually the ukrainians will lose.

The most elite of their airborne troops were mauled by a bunch of second rate national guardsmen running around with stingers and NLAWS

'victory' is not losing ten thousand troops to a backwater post-soviet state, albeit one now pretty well fed on western arms

[Port Caverton]

I mean the ukrainians are really lucky Putin could have flattened every city in the country in a week if he went beserk.

He might have done that if his generals and himself weren't using most of the defense budget on yachts and mansions

[The Black Forrest]

I mean the ukrainians are really lucky Putin could have flattened every city in the country in a week if he went beserk.

No actually he couldn't have done that.

What was surprising was how piss poor the Russians handled this. The Soviets? Ukraine would have bent the knee quick.....

[Alexander-of-Macedon]

I mean the ukrainians are really lucky Putin could have flattened every city in the country in a week if he went beserk.

He might have done that if his generals and himself weren't using most of the defense budget on yachts and mansions

I have no doubt if he wanted to he could flatten the capital in a day.

[Latorik]

He might have done that if his generals and himself weren't using most of the defense budget on yachts and mansions

I have no doubt if he wanted to he could flatten the capital in a day.

Having cruise missiles =/= a capable military

[Novus America]

Modern day Germany would be steam rolled by russia if they gave germany everthing im talking in a 1v1 fight. Same strategy always works quantity is a quality of its own.

Ukraine military spending, 2019-21: $5.2b

Germany military spending, 2019-21: $49.3b

The Bundeswehr would go through Putin's "army" like shit through a tinhorn and you know it.

https://rlist.io/l/europe-countries-wit ... ry-spendin

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ge ... 022-02-24/
The German military is a mess. Maybe not as much as the Russian one but still it is bad. Russia at least has numbers. Germany does not even have that. Even Germany’s own military admits its military sucks.

Considering the biggest military expense is generally personnel just looking at the total number spent is not enough.
German soldiers are almost certainly getting paid significantly more than 10 times the Ukrainians, thus wiping out the additional spending.

Spending per GDP is important, and Germany has not been spending nearly enough. Much of its equipment is not even functioning.

NATO minimums exist for a reason, if you are spending less than 2% of GPD on defense and less than 20% of that on equipment you probably are not spending nearly enough to keep an effective military.

[Hurtful Thoughts]

If they solved the incompetence issue and moved all forces to attack germany then yes.

Russian logistics have sucked since forever, they ain't improving anytime soon.

Probably a lesson they should've written down when PLA's invasion of Vietnam met similar results when they needed to make a similar logistical pause due to adopting a copy of their doctrine.

[Vistulange]

Yes, but I want it to be more comprehensive, so why wouldn't the United States give their weapons-making knowledge to the European Union countries ? we should all understand that it was the US government that provoked the fascist Putin. Today we see the terrible picture of the cold war in ukraine. While the fascists continue to protect their cold war economic interests, it is the Ukrainian people who are in bad shape. This is how I interpret this terrible event and I reject the capitalist system.

Didn't the US basing of nuclear SRBMs in Turkey nearly start WW3, though?

Since that prompted Cuba to get some as well... the rest was kinda fictionalized in NS-lore.

TFW America has detonated enough nuclear weapons over the years that using stock footage is still easier than using CGI.

Kind of. Admittedly, the scholarly consensus there is, uh...a little trickier. I'd explain further, but this isn't the thread for it; nor do I have the time to dig up a bunch of articles, or worse, go down to the university library to borrow books, real books.

But I'm mostly being nitpicky. The essential, key takeaway of the readings I've done on the topic is that it wasn't really the MRBMs that were a problem. Let me be more specific: the MRBMs, both in Cuba and in Turkey, didn't present any new existential threat to the two sides. By the time the crisis rolled around, both sides already had successful ICBM launches—both sides had operational ICBMs in 1959—so the only difference was "does our country get bathed in nuclear fire in 5 minutes, or 20 minutes" which isn't really a difference. Instead, it was more of a prestige issue, i.e., "can't be having Soviet missiles in our backyard" and vice versa. That's also why Khrushchev got removed, they extrapolate, because the issue wasn't precisely an issue of the missiles being removed—it was that the Soviets were publicly humiliated in doing so, whereas the US quietly withdrew the Jupiter missiles from Turkey.

Anyway, it was a close call, but I think the scholarly community agrees that the priority on both sides was "how do we not end the fucking world tomorrow".

[Spirit of Hope]

He might have done that if his generals and himself weren't using most of the defense budget on yachts and mansions

I have no doubt if he wanted to he could flatten the capital in a day.

Outside of nuclear weapons, probably not. Cities are very robust and decentralized, Mariupol is still standing and its had house by house fighting going on for weeks. It would especially be problematic for Russia right now since Ukrainian counter attacks have largely pushed Russian forces out of effective artillery range of Kyiv.

All that said, the invasion of Ukraine has not shown the full capability of the Russian armed forces, it looks like the strategic and operational plans were rushed and done badly. Russian troops have had low moral, in part because Russia appears to have put basically no effort into getting soldiers to buy in on the war. Despite that they have captured some significant territory in Ukraine and are continuing limited offensive operations.

[Dtn]

8th grade groyper vs nsg, the fight of the century

it looks like the strategic and operational plans were rushed and done badly

I possibly agree on rushed but disagree on the second - failures were mainly on the tactical level.

"The plan failed!" is kind of a strange idea, a good plan preserves options even if one element fails and it seems fairly clear the Russians have more options than the Ukrainians at this point. You could see the current situation begin to develop weeks ago. It's obvious when you consider how a cauldron works.

Too bad the mil realism thread is dead, the weird ideological battles of nsg are too tedious for me.

The tendency is for narratives to collapse into simple polar opposites, the truth is usually somewhere in the middle. The retreat from Kyiv probably isn't the huge defeat people are saying, it's probably not the brilliant feint pro-Russia people are claiming. I think aspects of the Russian plan did fail in some ways that are more nuanced than the memes people throw around, but "the plan" is usually just a base that's adapted as needed.

[Alexander-of-Macedon]

This is how I would have done it

1. Secure all land around the black sea
2. Take the sepretist areas and parts near northern Belarus
3. Devistate Ukrainian Infustructure
4. Seize ukrainian air-feilds and air ports
5. Burn there farms to the ground starving them
6. Crush resistance and take the capital while your at it
7. Take over ukraine
8. kill zelenski in a dramatic way invocing russian nationalism

how would anyone else have done it?

[Latorik]

This is how I would have done it

1. Secure all land around the black sea
2. Take the sepretist areas and parts near northern Belarus
3. Devistate Ukrainian Infustructure
4. Seize ukrainian air-feilds and air ports
5. Burn there farms to the ground starving them
6. Crush resistance and take the capital while your at it
7. Take over ukraine
8. kill zelenski in a dramatic way invocing russian nationalism

how would anyone else have done it?

russians attempted all of these and failed horribly

[Alexander-of-Macedon]

This is how I would have done it

1. Secure all land around the black sea
2. Take the sepretist areas and parts near northern Belarus
3. Devistate Ukrainian Infustructure
4. Seize ukrainian air-feilds and air ports
5. Burn there farms to the ground starving them
6. Crush resistance and take the capital while your at it
7. Take over ukraine
8. kill zelenski in a dramatic way invocing russian nationalism

how would anyone else have done it?

russians attempted all of these and failed horribly

if it failed and I was Putin just bomb the shit out of them until they agree to my terms.

[Alexander-of-Macedon]

8th grade groyper vs nsg, the fight of the century

it looks like the strategic and operational plans were rushed and done badly

I possibly agree on rushed but disagree on the second - failures were mainly on the tactical level.

"The plan failed!" is kind of a strange idea, a good plan preserves options even if one element fails and it seems fairly clear the Russians have more options than the Ukrainians at this point. You could see the current situation begin to develop weeks ago. It's obvious when you consider how a cauldron works.

Too bad the mil realism thread is dead, the weird ideological battles of nsg are too tedious for me.

spot on, And the groypers will win because we never cede ground