Ukrainian Invasion Thread II: Sunrise on the Dnieper

[Northern Socialist Council Republics]

Kind of a tangent, but: that Ukrainian song celebrating the Bayraktar drone is super catchy. Can’t get it out of my head. >_>;;

[Holy Nacimerian Empire]

Can we skip to the part where cease-fire is agreed upon and Putin gets part of the Ukrainian Coastline?

[Tarsonis]

Can we skip to the part where cease-fire is agreed upon and Putin gets part of the Ukrainian Coastline?

I'd rather fast forward to the Russian army collapsing and getting pushed across its boarders

[Gravlen]

When Gen. Maj. Vitaly Gerassimov, chief of staff of the 41st Army, was killed in action, it was quickly confirmed by intelligence intercepting a call from the FSB officer assigned to the 41st Army. He reported the death to his boss in Tula, and also informed them they had lost all secure communications. Thus the phone call using a local sim card. Thus the intercept.

In the call, you hear the Ukraine-based FSB officer ask his boss if he can talk via the secure Era system. The boss says Era is not working. Era is a super expensive cryptophone system that @mod_russia introduced in 2021 with great fanfare. It guaranteed work "in all conditions"

The idiots tried to use the Era cryptophones in Kharkiv, after destroying many 3g cell towers and also replacing others with stingrays. Era needs 3g/4g to communicate.

The Russian army is equipped with secure phones that can't work in areas where the Russian army operates.

"the greatest military opsec failure of all time"

Another VDV commander died earlier, bringing the total up to 7 Russian senior officers in less than 2 weeks.

Totes not a paper tiger guys.

A nuclear powered paper tiger.

[Dreria]

Can we skip to the part where cease-fire is agreed upon and Putin gets part of the Ukrainian Coastline?

I'd rather fast forward to the Russian army collapsing and getting pushed across its boarders

person of land Zelensky needs to evict the russian rentoids.

[Picairn]

- Only Russian contractors are fighting in Ukraine, volunteers and reserve officers in military enlistment offices are turned back with the words "we will cope without you." There is a very simple way to understand which country is losing - the one that mobilizes or at least brings reserves. Russia, according to American intelligence (which we obviously believe), is not bringing new troops to Ukraine.

I may also add that this information turned out to be false by observations on the ground.

[New Baltenstein]

I'm not too optimistic. Something like a warring states period between oligarchs is very possible.

Does this mean we get a new Mongol conquest? I'm looking forward to Golden Horde 2: Electric Boogaloo.

The Golden Horde will be Chinese this time

[Luminesa]

When Gen. Maj. Vitaly Gerassimov, chief of staff of the 41st Army, was killed in action, it was quickly confirmed by intelligence intercepting a call from the FSB officer assigned to the 41st Army. He reported the death to his boss in Tula, and also informed them they had lost all secure communications. Thus the phone call using a local sim card. Thus the intercept.

In the call, you hear the Ukraine-based FSB officer ask his boss if he can talk via the secure Era system. The boss says Era is not working. Era is a super expensive cryptophone system that @mod_russia introduced in 2021 with great fanfare. It guaranteed work "in all conditions"

The idiots tried to use the Era cryptophones in Kharkiv, after destroying many 3g cell towers and also replacing others with stingrays. Era needs 3g/4g to communicate.

The Russian army is equipped with secure phones that can't work in areas where the Russian army operates.

"the greatest military opsec failure of all time"

Another VDV commander died earlier, bringing the total up to 7 Russian senior officers in less than 2 weeks.

Totes not a paper tiger guys.

A nuclear powered paper tiger.

“The greatest military opsec failure of all time” is a HECK of an accomplishment just in the last week! There are Russian dudes selling troop movements on GRINDR AND TINDR in the SAME WAR.

[Gallia-]

US rejects latest Polish offer to transfer MiGs to America, to be flown out of Germany to Ukraine.

[Rusozak]

US rejects latest Polish offer to transfer MiGs to America, to be flown out of Germany to Ukraine.

Why again is using America as a middle man important here? If Poland is scared of Russian aggression, I'm sure they don't care about the technicality of not directly supplying Ukraine.

[Saiwania]

The plane plan from Poland isn't great anyways, why would you move the jets further west before trying to move them east a greater distance than before?

What should be smuggled in are missiles of every sort and their launchers, and drones and bombs for those, if airplanes are too difficult to fly in unnoticed. Nothing short of F-22s or F-35s will do much good in Ukraine if S-400 or better systems are active there. Those need to be neutralized first.

[Gallia-]

US rejects latest Polish offer to transfer MiGs to America, to be flown out of Germany to Ukraine.

Why again is using America as a middle man important here?

Because Poland doesn't want to give up its MiG-29s is probably the biggest issue. In the coming years Poland is going to be responsible for Slovakian air defense as well as itself, so it already is starting at a deficit of planes for the jobs it needs. Everyone else Borrel mentioned has this great thing where their planes are too old, busted, or few in quantity to be easily replaced. Poland has the unfortunate issue of only having about 20-30 operable MiGs against dozens of F-16s and a few JSFs arriving to replace the MiGs in about 18 months.

OTOH it needs them for more important things than getting shot down by Russian SAMs and planes. The tactical fighter squadron that operates the MiG-29s is also first in line to get Polish F-35s in 2024, so they need something to fly until then, for the far more important (than Ukraine) Baltic Air Policing mission. Poland is responsible for not only its own air defense, but also the air defense of all three Baltic countries, and soon Slovakia, similar to how Moldova's airspace is defended by Romania because Moldova can't afford to operate more than a couple helicopters.

If they give their MiG-29s up they'll probably wrangle a deal with the US that they're given free F-16s and training from the USA for it to fly until they get JSFs. The US doesn't want to do this OTOH, probably because it can't afford it either.

So Ukraine isn't getting planes for a while, if ever.

[Vassenor]

So do we think Putin is crazy enough to order the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine as a last ditch “if I can’t have you no one can” then? Given the rumours are circling again.

[The Archregimancy]

I have seen some stuff suggesting that one of putins motives was the assertion of the Moscow churches authority over Kiev. It felt completely whacked.

My question is, are there current religious differences between the Russian and Ukrainian churches that are deep enough where internally in Russia putin could use Moscow's domination to help keep the church quiet?

I think Arch could explain this better than me, but I’ll try anyway. While the religious differences I imagine are not that big, they operate along national lines. And then there are two Ukrainian Orthodox Churches, each with different leaders. The one backed by Moscow has turned against Russia’s military actions, and the other one…well, probably obvious where he stands. Patriarch Kirill, unfortunately, stands with Russia’s forces it seems.

I missed this at the time.

There are no doctrinal differences involved; only administrative and jurisdictional ones.

The Patriarchate of Moscow claims jurisdictional authority over the entirety of Ukraine. A difficult to define percentage of Ukrainians, though likely a majority, want an independent (technical term 'autocephalous') Ukrainian Orthodox Church. It's important to stress here that, unlike the Catholic Church, the Orthodox Church isn't a single administrative body, but rather a group of autocephalous churches who share the same doctrine, are all in communion with each other (well, usually, anyway), and also have defined jurisdictional boundaries.

Up until the 19th century, there were only a small number of autocephalous Orthodox churches (though there had been a few more in the past). These were (in order of precedence) Constantinople, Alexandria, Antioch, Jerusalem, Moscow, Georgia and Cyprus. As the Ottoman Empire disintegrated, the new nations in the Balkans asserted their right to their own national churches; in the case of Serbia and Bulgaria, to the restoration of previously autocephalous churches. At the same time, the Georgian church was suppressed by the Russian Empire in 1811, and then restored in 1917. This concept of 'national churches' based on ethnic lines was condemned as a sin (technical name Phyletism) by Constantinople in 1872, but while this ruling is still technically on the books, it did nothing to discourage the growth of Orthodox jurisdictions drawn along ethnic and national lines. While some autocephalous churches remain trans-national, others remain very narrowly focused on a specific nation and associated ethnic group.

So for the last 200 years or so, Orthodoxy has become increasingly fractured administratively while remaining united doctrinally.

When Ukraine gained its independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union, calls for a Ukrainian national Orthodox church became prominent. At one point there were three different jurisdictions attempting to operate in the country, though the only one with official recognition across Orthodoxy as a whole was the group that remained affiliated with Moscow.

In 2019, the Patriarch of Constantinople - whose status within Orthodoxy is solely a first among equals primacy of honour - recognised the autocephaly of a new Orthodox Church of Ukraine that united the different groups seeking independence. This would remove Ukraine from Moscow's ecclesiastical jurisdiction. While in narrow technical terms (and I don't propose to get into the details) the Patriarch of Constantinople likely had the historical right to do this, he did so without any reference to Moscow. The Russian Orthodox Church is by far the demographically largest autocephalous church, and likely the most politically powerful, and it pitched a fit. Some autocephalous churches followed Constantinople's lead, others refused to recognise Ukraine; this opened up a breach in the Orthodox Church, though as of right now it's neither total nor final. Meanwhile, a not insignificant minority of Ukrainians stayed with a second bishop of Kiev (technically the Metropolitan of Kiev) that still recognised Moscow's jurisdiction.

But yes, the Moscow Patriarchate would love to suppress the independence of the new Orthodox Church of Ukraine, and doing so very much fits into Putin's narrative of Ukraine not being a real country; so the two goals are aligned.

Further complicating matters is that the man who brought Christianity to both Russia and Ukraine was the 10th-century ruler Vladimir of Kiev. It was his decision to convert to Christianity in 986 that brought Orthodoxy to both countries. This is often used to drive Russian narratives of how Russia and Ukraine's shared ecclesiastical history means they're really one people.

At its core, this is a power play. Ukrainian political independence and ecclesiastical independence go hand in hand. The latter is likely inevitable, but the Patriarch of Constantinople's decision to unilaterally recognise without broad support was, in narrow political terms, likely a mistake. But Putin wants to suppress both, and while the war in Ukraine is more about suppressing the political independence, suppression of any move to ecclesiastical independence is almost certainly a desired secondary goal - and goes a long way towards explaining the messaging over the conflict coming out of the Moscow Patriarchate.

[Laka Strolistandiler]

So do we think Putin is crazy enough to order the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine as a last ditch “if I can’t have you no one can” then? Given the rumours are circling again.

As previously stated and discussed here, this is next to impossible because IRL nukes can’t be launched with a push of a button like in GI Joe

[Vassenor]

So do we think Putin is crazy enough to order the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine as a last ditch “if I can’t have you no one can” then? Given the rumours are circling again.

As previously stated and discussed here, this is next to impossible because IRL nukes can’t be launched with a push of a button like in GI Joe

Yeah, which is why I just talked about him ordering they be used rather than the order being carried out.

[Perikuresu]

The only way I see Ukraine actually surviving this without being annexed into Russia or have a puppet state set up is that they have to concede the Donbas and Crimea to Russia.

[Asherahan]

How is war progressing on the 4 major fronts?

OH. I think I mixed you up with Orostan. You’re Greek, right?

Yeah.

[Asherahan]

I don't think you have understood that this war has become a Total War Russia cannot lose if it loses it will stop being able to exert any kind influence and become a failed state. It must win to survive that is literally the only reason that Putin hasn't been taken out of the picture at this point.

Even if Russia wins this war militarily they’re going to lose in every other aspect. This is their Afghanistan.

That can be easily be solved by expelling all Ukrainians from Ukraine and appropriating their wealth.

[Gravlen]

The only way I see Ukraine actually surviving this without being annexed into Russia or have a puppet state set up is that they have to concede the Donbas and Crimea to Russia.

How do you see Ukraine being annexed into Russia or having a lasting, viable puppet state set up?

I just don't see how Russia is going to make that work.

[Dtn]

Even if Russia wins this war militarily they’re going to lose in every other aspect. This is their Afghanistan.

That can be easily be solved by expelling all Ukrainians from Ukraine and appropriating their wealth.

You must have an interesting definition of "easily."

[Perikuresu]

The only way I see Ukraine actually surviving this without being annexed into Russia or have a puppet state set up is that they have to concede the Donbas and Crimea to Russia.

I just don't see how Russia is going to make that work.

Thank you for summing up your own question: it won't. (But Putin might be crazy enough to try)

[Ethel mermania]

I think Arch could explain this better than me, but I’ll try anyway. While the religious differences I imagine are not that big, they operate along national lines. And then there are two Ukrainian Orthodox Churches, each with different leaders. The one backed by Moscow has turned against Russia’s military actions, and the other one…well, probably obvious where he stands. Patriarch Kirill, unfortunately, stands with Russia’s forces it seems.

I missed this at the time.

There are no doctrinal differences involved; only administrative and jurisdictional ones.

The Patriarchate of Moscow claims jurisdictional authority over the entirety of Ukraine. A difficult to define percentage of Ukrainians, though likely a majority, want an independent (technical term 'autocephalous') Ukrainian Orthodox Church. It's important to stress here that, unlike the Catholic Church, the Orthodox Church isn't a single administrative body, but rather a group of autocephalous churches who share the same doctrine, are all in communion with each other (well, usually, anyway), and also have defined jurisdictional boundaries.

Up until the 19th century, there were only a small number of autocephalous Orthodox churches (though there had been a few more in the past). These were (in order of precedence) Constantinople, Alexandria, Antioch, Jerusalem, Moscow, Georgia and Cyprus. As the Ottoman Empire disintegrated, the new nations in the Balkans asserted their right to their own national churches; in the case of Serbia and Bulgaria, to the restoration of previously autocephalous churches. At the same time, the Georgian church was suppressed by the Russian Empire in 1811, and then restored in 1917. This concept of 'national churches' based on ethnic lines was condemned as a sin (technical name Phyletism) by Constantinople in 1872, but while this ruling is still technically on the books, it did nothing to discourage the growth of Orthodox jurisdictions drawn along ethnic and national lines. While some autocephalous churches remain trans-national, others remain very narrowly focused on a specific nation and associated ethnic group.

So for the last 200 years or so, Orthodoxy has become increasingly fractured administratively while remaining united doctrinally.

When Ukraine gained its independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union, calls for a Ukrainian national Orthodox church became prominent. At one point there were three different jurisdictions attempting to operate in the country, though the only one with official recognition across Orthodoxy as a whole was the group that remained affiliated with Moscow.

In 2019, the Patriarch of Constantinople - whose status within Orthodoxy is solely a first among equals primacy of honour - recognised the autocephaly of a new Orthodox Church of Ukraine that united the different groups seeking independence. This would remove Ukraine from Moscow's ecclesiastical jurisdiction. While in narrow technical terms (and I don't propose to get into the details) the Patriarch of Constantinople likely had the historical right to do this, he did so without any reference to Moscow. The Russian Orthodox Church is by far the demographically largest autocephalous church, and likely the most politically powerful, and it pitched a fit. Some autocephalous churches followed Constantinople's lead, others refused to recognise Ukraine; this opened up a breach in the Orthodox Church, though as of right now it's neither total nor final. Meanwhile, a not insignificant minority of Ukrainians stayed with a second bishop of Kiev (tech

But yes, the Moscow Patriarchate would love to suppress the independence of the new Orthodox Church of Ukraine, and doing so very much fits into Putin's narrative of Ukraine not being a real country; so the two goals are aligned.

Further complicating matters is that the man who brought Christianity to both Russia and Ukraine was the 10th-century ruler Vladimir of Kiev. It was his decision to convert to Christianity in 986 that brought Orthodoxy to both countries. This is often used to drive Russian narratives of how Russia and Ukraine's shared ecclesiastical history means they're really one people.

At its core, this is a power play. Ukrainian political independence and ecclesiastical independence go hand in hand. The latter is likely inevitable, but the Patriarch of Constantinople's decision to unilaterally recognise without broad support was, in narrow political terms, likely a mistake. But Putin wants to suppress both, and while the war in Ukraine is more about suppressing the political independence, suppression of any move to ecclesiastical independence is almost certainly a desired secondary goal - and goes a long way towards explaining the messaging over the conflict coming out of the Moscow Patriarchate.

Thanks,

in the states, as i am sure you noticed, we do different churches doctrinally, even if the split would appear to be a fairly minute one. The notion of a nationalistic church with power is a strange one to us.

When I first read the article on it, it sounded crazy, as a NYC jew I probably should have known better.

[Pasong Tirad]

The only way I see Ukraine actually surviving this without being annexed into Russia or have a puppet state set up is that they have to concede the Donbas and Crimea to Russia.

How do you see Ukraine being annexed into Russia or having a lasting, viable puppet state set up?

I just don't see how Russia is going to make that work.

I can see Putin being able to occupy Ukraine with enough effort and losses in men and materiel. But I don't see that occupation lasting very long or being in any way peaceful.

[Gravlen]

How do you see Ukraine being annexed into Russia or having a lasting, viable puppet state set up?

I just don't see how Russia is going to make that work.

I can see Putin being able to occupy Ukraine with enough effort and losses in men and materiel. But I don't see that occupation lasting very long or being in any way peaceful.

The only way out that I can see now is through an agreement, or by unilateral withdrawal by Russia (though declaring Mission Accomplished).