The Invasion of Ukraine, Russia Threatens Finland/Sweden

[Latvijas Otra Republika]

This is so annoying. Can all American posters stop discussing internal American politic for this instance? We have discussed your domestics for years now, current situation is bigger than red v blue.

[Hukhalia]

Whenever a Republican says that Biden "hasn't done enough" to stop Russia in Ukraine, they are implicitly telling you one of 3 things: they want a nuclear war, only a conservative authoritarian strongman could get Putin to stop (i.e., become Putin to stop Putin), or some combination of the other two.

Refuse to buy into it.

The republican narrative appears to be that Trump threatened a nuclear war and Putin backed down. I don't find this implausible for the simple reason that it sounds like something Trump would do(he was, umm, seemingly fond of nuclear weapons) and Putin was sane prior to his year and a half of total isolation.

This is why I unironically believe Putin would be treading much more carefully if Trump was still in charge. Not because Trump is particularly responsible or a good statesman, but just because he's so unpredictable. Dude could be threatening to nuke Moscow, I can see it.

[Ethel mermania]

So how does the nato airbases these planes are flying out of not become a legitimate target of the war?

It would be a direct act of aggression against NATO and probably warrant a counterattack. Russia doesn’t want to start a war with all of NATO when they’ve already got Ukraine to worry about.

Probably because NATO will nuke Russia if they start attacking NATO airbases. Two can play at that game. Anyway is that how they're being delivered?

Stop pushing the “we’re one step way from a nuclear war” narrative, nuclear war won’t happen unless someone has literally nothing to lose and the threat levied against them is just one step below nuclear war. Killing a few soldiers doesn’t put anyone in a position where they want to start a nuclear war.

Much like the first world War, getting to nuclear war is a process. Widening the war to include the use of nato airbases, even just in a ferrying role, using those bases is a step forward in that process

[Jerzylvania]

christ, how morbid is this? here we are, in our bedroom or living room or wherever we are, watching the first european war in 30 years play out in real time. it sounds like something out of a dystopia.

The true dystopia is in ukraine right now, not our living rooms far away.

Damn straight.

[The Commonwealth of Tennessee]

Much appreciated. It was only a matter of time before Belarus joined in, in my personal opinion. What's surprising to me is the fact that Belarus is putting up an act of democracy by showcasing a referendum in regards to nuclear status. That seems totally unnecessary, given that I'm pretty sure most of the west realizes Belarus is anything but democratic in nature.

The law's weird like that. Belarus has a constitution, laws, &c which are totally bypassed but nevertheless must be observed ceremonially for shreds of legitimacy. It's the same reason the U.S. Senate no longer enters "recess", but instead litters its de-facto recess with pro forma sessions - everyone knows it's bullshit but it's politically convenient to commit to it and not raise too many questions.

Didn't even know that about the Senate, learn something new on NSG everyday lmao.

[The Commonwealth of Tennessee]

Insane amount of warhawks in congress. Quite alarming, but I guess people who haven't seen the brutality of war can only get a glimpse of a romanticized version through media or other means.

Frankly it's hard for me to see Russia looking this weak and not entertain laying down a solid whupping.

Sometimes it is nice to watch bullies get bullied, or at least stood up to.

[Hukhalia]

The law's weird like that. Belarus has a constitution, laws, &c which are totally bypassed but nevertheless must be observed ceremonially for shreds of legitimacy. It's the same reason the U.S. Senate no longer enters "recess", but instead litters its de-facto recess with pro forma sessions - everyone knows it's bullshit but it's politically convenient to commit to it and not raise too many questions.

Didn't even know that about the Senate, learn something new on NSG everyday lmao.

You too can spend like ten minutes watching CGP Grey and pretend to be knowledgeable on US Senate procedure!

[El Lazaro]

The republican narrative appears to be that Trump threatened a nuclear war and Putin backed down. I don't find this implausible for the simple reason that it sounds like something Trump would do(he was, umm, seemingly fond of nuclear weapons) and Putin was sane prior to his year and a half of total isolation.

This is why I unironically believe Putin would be treading much more carefully if Trump was still in charge. Not because Trump is particularly responsible or a good statesman, but just because he's so unpredictable. Dude could be threatening to nuke Moscow, I can see it.

The problem about Trump is that there’s a different between madman theory and just being a madman. The guy had no spine when it came to actually doing stuff either and the rhetorical equivalent of slurring drunk threats at everyone around you becomes pretty meaningless without that.

[The Commonwealth of Tennessee]

Much appreciated. It was only a matter of time before Belarus joined in, in my personal opinion. What's surprising to me is the fact that Belarus is putting up an act of democracy by showcasing a referendum in regards to nuclear status. That seems totally unnecessary, given that I'm pretty sure most of the west realizes Belarus is anything but democratic in nature.

Appearances like that are for the citizens/subjects.

Makes sense enough, I suppose!

*sorry for littering the thread, didn't realize I could quote multiples.

[Hukhalia]

This is why I unironically believe Putin would be treading much more carefully if Trump was still in charge. Not because Trump is particularly responsible or a good statesman, but just because he's so unpredictable. Dude could be threatening to nuke Moscow, I can see it.

The problem about Trump is that there’s a different between madman theory and just being a madman. The guy had no spine when it came to actually doing stuff either and the rhetorical equivalent of slurring drunk threats at everyone around you becomes pretty meaningless without that.

Man still had the nuclear codes. He'd have done something silly.

[Diopolis]

I think you're misunderstanding mean. I'm not talking about Russia using nukes on military bases (however if there was an actual war they would), I'm saying that if Russia attacked NATO airbases because of supplied Jets being given to Ukraine are flying out of them, then that would spark a war between Russia and NATO which would quickly turn nuclear.

Why? The entire point of nukes is that nobody wants to use them. If anyone does it, everyone dies. Nukes aren’t just a toy to send over whenever you’re upset at something.

Russian(the attack on Kyiv airport appears to have been an attempt at this) and NATO doctrine both call for strikes deep behind enemy lines and authorize shockingly low-level commanders to use tactical nuclear weapons. Both doctrines furthermore call for use of nuclear weapons to be met with escalation.
It's very much not out of the question that a hypothetical Russia-NATO war would go nuclear, although it would be an escalation process taking place over the course of days and not minutes.

[Latvijas Otra Republika]

It would be a direct act of aggression against NATO and probably warrant a counterattack. Russia doesn’t want to start a war with all of NATO when they’ve already got Ukraine to worry about.

Stop pushing the “we’re one step way from a nuclear war” narrative, nuclear war won’t happen unless someone has literally nothing to lose and the threat levied against them is just one step below nuclear war. Killing a few soldiers doesn’t put anyone in a position where they want to start a nuclear war.

Much like the first world War, getting to nuclear war is a process. Widening the war to include the use of nato airbases, even just in a ferrying role, using those bases is a step forward in that process

No it's not, Russia is already using Belarusian bases so it's simply a counter-measure. Should NATO just bend over and let Russia use all it's springboards without giving Ukraine some base support? Nuclear war won't happen.

[Orostan]

Frankly it's hard for me to see Russia looking this weak and not entertain laying down a solid whupping.

Sometimes it is nice to watch bullies get bullied, or at least stood up to.

NATO is the bully, Russia is doing nothing wrong.

[Orostan]

Nuclear war won't happen.

This is the attitude that causes a nuclear war.

[Dtn]

On why Russia's performance is a shitshow;

The expense of having a top of the line tank is basically nothing compared to the cost of actually using it.

Like... Okay, I know this is dumb. But have you ever played Hoi4?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTvRc8fQNBs

And built an enormous tank army? Five full battlegroups of 24/24/24/24/24 tanks and you go "I'll be goddamn unstoppable!"

And then they just... immediately run out of fuel because you mobilize them all at once, and then they're just big dumb coffins?

Yeah... the reason we're seeing a bunch of stalled Russian convoys and so on is their army is on paper enormous and modern. The problem is they don't have the economy to actually use any of it.

It's one reason why Putin is furious the war isn't over yet. It's making that extremely apparent to the whole world. If he had broken Ukraine in 48 hours we wouldn't be seeing all this embarrassing shit about their logistics nightmare and realizing;

"Russia has 12000 tanks. Oh. No. Russia has 100 Tanks and 19900 fancy iron coffins because they're too poor to actually afford any more than that in actual usage".

On top of this the Russian military appears to have gone for top of the line tanks and aircraft and all that shit and been extremely dismissive of modernizing their fuel trucks and actual logistics network. They're using decades old shit and western experts have told the Ukrainian soldiers and civilians;

"Oh yeah. You can take that thing down with small arms fire. We used to build them like that too lol. If you don't have a Javelin, take a handgun and go hunting for a fuel truck. You'll be killing twenty tanks that way.".

So it has become a total shitshow. As to why Russia hasn't bothered modernizing its logistics system despite the flaws in such a system being well understood, documented, and countermeasures devised, two theories leap to mind.

Because they're massively insecure fucknuggets and so the entire point of modernizing their tanks and so on is because those are "The Cool Things" and they look down on logistics as an annoyance. Or two.

They're actively trying to psyche out the west by having a "Modern military" but genuinely can't afford a modern logistics network to upkeep it as well (that is actually the overwhelmingly more substantial expense). So someone told Putin "We can have 400 modern tanks and a logistics system" and Putin stares ahead and says "And if we didn't expect the tanks to actually be used in a prolonged conflict?"

"Well. We can scrap the logistics system and afford 12000..."

"Do that then.".

Because the alternative was for Russia to have a military about the size of Italies... maybe twice as big if they're committed to doing so. Except the Italian military is actually functional, and Russia's is not.

Look at some comparisons.

Italy spends 30 billion dollars a year and has an army of 90,000.

Russia spends 60 billion dollars a year, and has an army of 1,000,000.

Where do you think they got the savings from? How can they afford to field more than ten times the men and and almost a hundred times more tanks and with full infantry mechanization on only twice the budget?

From that army being basically non-functional. It's just there to look good on paper and be scary. If you expect it to do anything for longer than 48 hours, it evaporates, as we've seen.

Which is why Italy only has 200 tanks and not 12000. It's why they don't have full mechanization. And so on. Because they want a functional military, not a piece of propaganda on how large and modern their military is. Nobody thinks logistics systems are sexy for that kind of propaganda.

Okay, you've made some valid points, but I do have a problem with your analysis. The Russian military command isn't made up of idiots playing dress-up, and I cannot stress this point enough. They definitely understand the importance of logistics

It's actually all wrong. Russians understand logistics perfectly well, which is why the active component of their army is set up for what they call "active defense," which is really just quick offensives around their periphery. More than that requires calling up large numbers of conscripts and reserves. They simply took a reasonable gamble on surprise here.

[Adamede]

The republican narrative appears to be that Trump threatened a nuclear war and Putin backed down. I don't find this implausible for the simple reason that it sounds like something Trump would do(he was, umm, seemingly fond of nuclear weapons) and Putin was sane prior to his year and a half of total isolation.

Putin waited for a weak president.

Maybe. Biden certainly isn't without his mistakes so far. My personal theory is that his health is deteriorating or the pandemic has made him scared of dying soon. He's no spring chicken, and now he's trying to secure himself a legacy as a great Russian leader for the history books.

[Latvijas Otra Republika]

Nuclear war won't happen.

This is the attitude that causes a nuclear war.

Have you experienced a nuclear war?

[Free Algerstonia]

Sometimes it is nice to watch bullies get bullied, or at least stood up to.

NATO is the bully, Russia is doing nothing wrong.

yeah the ukrainian insurgency has been allowed to rebel against the soviet union for too long it is time for the soviets to recontrol ukraine

[Malaiya Union]

Meanwhile, Russian problems at home:

• BP to outright dump all their stakes in the Russian majority state-owned gas giant Rosneft. BP's director have resigned from the Rosneft board with immediate effect. Losses against Rosneft may reach up to $25b. Rosneft equity is $75bn.
• Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund, the largest in the world, to sell and divest anything and everything they own in Russia.
• Venezuela, Syria, Cuba promises to inject liquidity to help the collapsing ruble.

On another note, a gigachad Ukrainian ship worker sabotaged the yacht of a Russian weapons manufacturing oligarch and partially sunk it. To the judge, he said: "I don't regret anything I've done and I will do it again."

[Adamede]

I think you're misunderstanding mean. I'm not talking about Russia using nukes on military bases (however if there was an actual war they would), I'm saying that if Russia attacked NATO airbases because of supplied Jets being given to Ukraine are flying out of them, then that would spark a war between Russia and NATO which would quickly turn nuclear.

Why? The entire point of nukes is that nobody wants to use them. If anyone does it, everyone dies. Nukes aren’t just a toy to send over whenever you’re upset at something.

Yah, and that's why Russia wouldn't attack NATO airbases where jets are being delivered to the Ukrainians.

[El Lazaro]

The problem about Trump is that there’s a different between madman theory and just being a madman. The guy had no spine when it came to actually doing stuff either and the rhetorical equivalent of slurring drunk threats at everyone around you becomes pretty meaningless without that.

Man still had the nuclear codes. He'd have done something silly.

A lot of people have to give confirmation before nukes can actually be launched. I don’t think we were in real danger of that happening.

[Des-Bal]

Yah I don't see it. This isn't Syria where it's a shit storm of dozens of different factions in at least 4 way civil war and anything can happen. This is a war where Russia is THE major belligerent. NATO intervention would be war against Russia. Putin likely isn't bluffing with his nuclear threats, and it's not a risk I would be willing to take.

Yes I'm talking about war with Russia. Nukes create a threat to Russian existence where the threat does not exist if Russia isn't directly attacked. Putin is definitely bluffing, he is attempting to escalate to deescalate he's puffing up so the big scary predators he just pissed off go away unfortunately we've already seen he's a toad and carrying out his threats gains him nothing.

[Diopolis]

This is why I unironically believe Putin would be treading much more carefully if Trump was still in charge. Not because Trump is particularly responsible or a good statesman, but just because he's so unpredictable. Dude could be threatening to nuke Moscow, I can see it.

The problem about Trump is that there’s a different between madman theory and just being a madman. The guy had no spine when it came to actually doing stuff either and the rhetorical equivalent of slurring drunk threats at everyone around you becomes pretty meaningless without that.

Trump was totally not opposed to major escalations, though- he assassinated Qassem Soleimani as one example.
Really the only reason that story is implausible(although it is unproven) would be if you unironically believe he was a Russian asset.

[The Commonwealth of Tennessee]

Sometimes it is nice to watch bullies get bullied, or at least stood up to.

NATO is the bully, Russia is doing nothing wrong.

Very curious to see you explain this in a little more depth, if you don't mind.

[Adamede]

This is so annoying. Can all American posters stop discussing internal American politic for this instance? We have discussed your domestics for years now, current situation is bigger than red v blue.

Please someone tell twitter and American media that.

I will say the reputation of Amero-centrism that American culture has acquired is well deserved.