American Politics IX: Winter is Coming

[Corrian]

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth after Senator Joe Manchin said Sunday he won’t support the $2 trillion tax-and-spending plan

[Maricarland]

Manchin’s other problem with BBB: He doesn’t trust poor people

After months of haggling with President Joe Biden and other Democrats, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) dashed his party’s hopes on Sunday by announcing he wouldn’t vote for the Build Back Better legislation.
Publicly, his biggest gripes are about the cost of the bill. But privately, Manchin has told his colleagues that he essentially doesn’t trust low-income people to spend government money wisely.

In recent months, Manchin has told several of his fellow Democrats that he thought parents would waste monthly child tax credit payments on drugs instead of providing for their children, according to two sources familiar with the senator’s comments.
Continuing the child tax credit for another year is a core part of the Build Back Better legislation that Democrats had hoped to pass by the end of the year. The policy has already cut child poverty by nearly 30%.
Manchin’s private comments shocked several senators, who saw it as an unfair assault on his own constituents and those struggling to raise children in poverty.
Manchin has also told colleagues he believes that Americans would fraudulently use the proposed paid sick leave policy, specifically saying people would feign being sick and go on hunting trips, a source familiar with his comments told HuffPost.
Manchin’s office declined to comment for this story.
In a statement on Sunday, he said he opposed the Build Back Better agenda largely because of its cost.

Why is Manchin a democrat again?

He shouldn't be. The Democrats should throw him out of the National Party. I doubt he will get thrown out of West Virginia Democratic Party though, because he has family that basically runs the party and private memos that were leaked basically confirmed that the whole of the West Virginia Democratic Party (the organization, not the voters themselves) views their sole purpose to be supporting Joe Manchin's career and interests.

[Kowani]

Manchin: “I knew negotiations were going to fail from the beginning”

Notably, however, Manchin said Monday that he knew from the beginning — five months ago — that negotiations between himself and Democrats would ultimately fail. Nonetheless, he allowed Democrats and Biden to try and appease him.
The way Manchin describes it, Democrats failed to make any meaningful concessions, despite shrinking down programs, and cutting out other major policies like the Clean Electricity Performance Program, Democrats’ biggest idea to cut emissions.
“I knew where they were and I knew what they could and could not do,” Manchin said in the radio interview, calling the shortened programs “disingenuine.” “They just never realized it because they figured ... we can badger and beat one person, that surely we can get enough protesters to make that person uncomfortable.”
Pressure tactics only pushed Manchin to dig deeper in his opposition.
“Well, guess what? I’m from West Virginia,” Manchin said. “I’m not from where they’re from, and they can’t just beat the living crap out of people and think they’ll be submissive. Period.”

this man got handled with kid gloves for fucking months, are you kidding me
what a fucking baby

[Maineiacs]

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth after Senator Joe Manchin said Sunday he won’t support the $2 trillion tax-and-spending plan

I was going to comment, but any apropos adjective I could think of to apply to Manchin would get me in trouble with the mods.

[Maricarland]

Manchin: “I knew negotiations were going to fail from the beginning”

Notably, however, Manchin said Monday that he knew from the beginning — five months ago — that negotiations between himself and Democrats would ultimately fail. Nonetheless, he allowed Democrats and Biden to try and appease him.
The way Manchin describes it, Democrats failed to make any meaningful concessions, despite shrinking down programs, and cutting out other major policies like the Clean Electricity Performance Program, Democrats’ biggest idea to cut emissions.
“I knew where they were and I knew what they could and could not do,” Manchin said in the radio interview, calling the shortened programs “disingenuine.” “They just never realized it because they figured ... we can badger and beat one person, that surely we can get enough protesters to make that person uncomfortable.”
Pressure tactics only pushed Manchin to dig deeper in his opposition.
“Well, guess what? I’m from West Virginia,” Manchin said. “I’m not from where they’re from, and they can’t just beat the living crap out of people and think they’ll be submissive. Period.”

this man got handled with kid gloves for fucking months, are you kidding me
what a fucking baby

We know that Joe Manchin never intended to pass the Build Back Better Act to begin with, everything, his complaint about the cost, his complaint about certain provisions, his complaint about the lack of bipartisanship, everything he did was pure posturing - it was theater that he did to waste the Democrats time and to try and maintain some kind of image to his donors or something, and he dragged the entire country into his theater. Joe Manchin has great disdain for the poor and will never really offer anything significant to the poor or working class (or even the so called middle class) unless he has significant control over their lives and can demean them. The only leverage to pass the Build Back Better Act and the budget bill, was that the infrastructure package had some things that Joe Manchin really wanted (which conveniently directly profit himself and his donors), and the Progressive gave up that leverage by agreeing to the inadequate infrastructure package because they believed Joe Manchin would then vote for the Build Back Better Act and the budget bill (which he never intended to vote for ever).

Protesters should be outside of every single one of his residencies (on the public land outside of them, not on the premises itself), and his yachts, and his office, and every single place he frequents for food or recreation or anything, and never stop hounding him, he should have no moment of peace in his public life, until he either relents or no longer holds office.

[Ifreann]

Manchin: “I knew negotiations were going to fail from the beginning”

Notably, however, Manchin said Monday that he knew from the beginning — five months ago — that negotiations between himself and Democrats would ultimately fail. Nonetheless, he allowed Democrats and Biden to try and appease him.
The way Manchin describes it, Democrats failed to make any meaningful concessions, despite shrinking down programs, and cutting out other major policies like the Clean Electricity Performance Program, Democrats’ biggest idea to cut emissions.
“I knew where they were and I knew what they could and could not do,” Manchin said in the radio interview, calling the shortened programs “disingenuine.” “They just never realized it because they figured ... we can badger and beat one person, that surely we can get enough protesters to make that person uncomfortable.”
Pressure tactics only pushed Manchin to dig deeper in his opposition.
“Well, guess what? I’m from West Virginia,” Manchin said. “I’m not from where they’re from, and they can’t just beat the living crap out of people and think they’ll be submissive. Period.”

this man got handled with kid gloves for fucking months, are you kidding me
what a fucking baby

All this time, what we needed was Joe Biden to jab Manchin in the chest and challenge him to a push-up contest.

[Kowani]

Manchin: “I knew negotiations were going to fail from the beginning”

Notably, however, Manchin said Monday that he knew from the beginning — five months ago — that negotiations between himself and Democrats would ultimately fail. Nonetheless, he allowed Democrats and Biden to try and appease him.
The way Manchin describes it, Democrats failed to make any meaningful concessions, despite shrinking down programs, and cutting out other major policies like the Clean Electricity Performance Program, Democrats’ biggest idea to cut emissions.
“I knew where they were and I knew what they could and could not do,” Manchin said in the radio interview, calling the shortened programs “disingenuine.” “They just never realized it because they figured ... we can badger and beat one person, that surely we can get enough protesters to make that person uncomfortable.”
Pressure tactics only pushed Manchin to dig deeper in his opposition.
“Well, guess what? I’m from West Virginia,” Manchin said. “I’m not from where they’re from, and they can’t just beat the living crap out of people and think they’ll be submissive. Period.”

this man got handled with kid gloves for fucking months, are you kidding me
what a fucking baby

What a Manchin plan would look like

Sen. Joe Manchin III last week made the White House a concrete counteroffer for its spending bill, saying he would accept a $1.8 trillion package that included universal prekindergarten for 10 years, an expansion of Obamacare and hundreds of billions of dollars to combat climate change, three people familiar with the matter said. But the West Virginia Democrat’s counteroffer excluded an extension of the expanded child tax credit the administration has seen as a cornerstone of President Biden’s economic legacy, the people said, an omission difficult for the White House to accept in the high-stakes negotiations. The people spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door deliberations. Manchin’s private proposal to the White House — the details of which have not been previously reported — was made just days before a spectacular public collapse in negotiations between the White House and the senator, marked by bitter and personal recriminations that left the status of the talks unclear.[…]
While the precise details of Manchin’s offer remain unclear, it adheres to his repeated demand that Democrats fund its economic programs for 10 years — rather than reducing their top-line cost by funding them for only a few years, people familiar with the matter said.
Manchin’s counteroffer, for instance, included funding universal pre-K for 10 years, rather than partially financing the measure for a few years. Manchin has long been public about his support of prekindergarten education.
On climate change, Manchin backed supporting a scaled-back version of what Democrats had sought — between $500 billion and $600 billion.
[…]
Manchin’s offer also included extending the expansion of the Affordable Care Act approved by Democrats earlier this year — a health care measure that has been a top priority of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). The full scope of Manchin’s plan was not clear, and it remains possible it included other elements of Biden’s proposals. Despite these potential areas of compromise, Manchin’s rejection of the expanded Child Tax Credit would represent an extraordinarily difficult condition for the administration to support. The White House has repeatedly argued that its one-year expansion of the existing expanded child benefit, approved by Democrats in March as part of Biden’s stimulus, has dramatically reduced child poverty and improved the well-being of millions of poor families. If that program expires at the end of this month — as it now appears likely to — then child poverty could move higher in 2022 in the months before the midterm elections.
In her statement on Sunday, Psaki said that Manchin’s offer to the White House was of the “same size and scope as the President’s framework” that the administration released in October. The statement said that “while that framework was missing key priorities, we believed it could lead to a compromise acceptable to all.”

[Zurkerx]

“There was a DOJ strategy, a state legislative strategy, a state election official strategy, the vice-president strategy. And there was the insurrection strategy:” Trump appears deeply unnerved as the Capitol Hill attack investigation closes in. He is upset and baffled why Meadows shared so much to the committee as well as why others are cooperating. He has also been perturbed by aides invoking the Fifth Amendment in depositions. To him, it makes them look weak and complicit in a crime and has said they are foolish for not following his orders like Bannon did to defy subpoenas. He has even bemoaned McCarthy as being incompetent for not putting Republicans on that committee to defend him (hint: he tried but Pelosi rejected most of his choices). He has denied any wrongdoing and while at the moment his associates aren't worry about criminal indictments, the committee seems to be heading towards an incriminating conclusion.

This comes as Adam Kinzinger said that the committee is examining whether Trump acted criminally in trying to obstruct the certification of the 2020 election results. He did not make a conclusion on that but while not surprising, this is the first we can confirm that they are, in fact, looking at criminal activity. Reportedly too, the DOJ is following the committee's work. Essentially, if prosecution does happen, prosecutors could use the text messages as evidence of criminal obstruction to stop a congressional proceeding if the White House knew election fraud claims to be lies but still used them to stop Biden’s certification. Of course, Trump and his allies have focused on trying to delegitimize the committee but that hasn't done much of anything really.

Speaking of delegitimizing, Trump is Suing the New York A.G. in Attempt to Stop the Inquiry Into His Business. That inquiry is a civil investigation but the AG is seeking to question the former president under oath next month. Trump claims he's being harassed and his Constitutional Rights are being violated. Simply put it, it's another stall technique that will likely fail. All that comes as the new Manhattan DA Alvin Briggs says he will focus on Trump investigations.

To conclude, Trump is feeling the heat and pressure from all sides and feels almost powerless to stop it, especially for how fast the expediting process has been with the courts.

I honestly think that Merrick Garland wants to follow and Gerald Ford’s footsteps and not charge Donald Trump with any crime on the federal level. He would rather Joe Biden pardon Trump and not have to deal with it at all. He either wants to move on from Trump(ism) and/or He’s worried about that charging him would result in a Civil War.

Biden has made it clear he will not pardon Trump. After all, him giving the National Archives permission to release the Jan. 6th files makes it clear he wouldn't; it wouldn't make sense for him to pardon him afterwards: he would never be forgiven by the party. However, he has left the decision of prosecuting Trump to his DOJ and State DOJs. The former does seem less likely to prosecute given his "institutional" stance as I like to put it.

But! The committees work could give the likes of Georgia's investigation the boost they need.

[Spirit of Hope]

Manchin: “I knew negotiations were going to fail from the beginning”

Notably, however, Manchin said Monday that he knew from the beginning — five months ago — that negotiations between himself and Democrats would ultimately fail. Nonetheless, he allowed Democrats and Biden to try and appease him.
The way Manchin describes it, Democrats failed to make any meaningful concessions, despite shrinking down programs, and cutting out other major policies like the Clean Electricity Performance Program, Democrats’ biggest idea to cut emissions.
“I knew where they were and I knew what they could and could not do,” Manchin said in the radio interview, calling the shortened programs “disingenuine.” “They just never realized it because they figured ... we can badger and beat one person, that surely we can get enough protesters to make that person uncomfortable.”
Pressure tactics only pushed Manchin to dig deeper in his opposition.
“Well, guess what? I’m from West Virginia,” Manchin said. “I’m not from where they’re from, and they can’t just beat the living crap out of people and think they’ll be submissive. Period.”

this man got handled with kid gloves for fucking months, are you kidding me
what a fucking baby

All this time, what we needed was Joe Biden to jab Manchin in the chest and challenge him to a push-up contest.

I would pay to see that.

So much fun learning Manchin thought that this would fail months ago and has wasted all of our time. Really is great when a millionaire withholds money from poor families.

[Maricarland]

Squad Reacts After Manchin Plays Biden, As They Predicted

[Kowani]

I repeat myself

We’re getting a bit more sense here of the final blow up that led to the demise of the BBB. Apparently the real blow up was that the White House put out a statement last week in which the President said he believed he was making progress on finalizing a Build Back Better deal with Joe Manchin. The key apparently was that he named Manchin specifically rather than Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema or Manchin and the rest of the caucus or whatever else.

In other words, in what was actually a positive and cordial statement he pointed to Manchin by name. In other words, kinda sorta implicitly saying that Manchin was the hold up but that he was optimistic they’d get to a deal. This apparently set Manchin off and led him to torpedo the negotiations and basically the President’s whole domestic agenda. How do we know this? Steven Clemons goes into the details here and Clemons is very close to Manchin.

As Clemons explains, Manchin saw his being named in the statement as “a breach of process, a breach of spirit, a breach of Joe and Joe working this out.” He seems to believe it was Biden’s staff rather than the President himself who committed the lapse. This is what Manchin was apparently referring to this morning when he told a West Virginia talk radio station: “They drove some things, they put some things out that were absolutely inexcusable.”
[…]
None of this changes the reality of the demise of serious climate action or a refundable child tax credit or universal pre-K or a bunch of other things. But it does illuminate the last year and makes clear that ‘getting tough’ on Manchin wasn’t really a tool the White House had in its arsenal. Just putting out a press release that named him and made him feel bad and somehow made him think people would blame him for what was happening made him go postal.

[Maricarland]

Manchin is now telling the Democrats to redo the whole Build Back Better Act from the beginning and maybe this time he will vote yes.

DO NOT BELIEVE HIM.

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

Good to know that one petty, cretinous little man has basically dissolved Congress.

[Zurkerx]

I repeat myself

We’re getting a bit more sense here of the final blow up that led to the demise of the BBB. Apparently the real blow up was that the White House put out a statement last week in which the President said he believed he was making progress on finalizing a Build Back Better deal with Joe Manchin. The key apparently was that he named Manchin specifically rather than Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema or Manchin and the rest of the caucus or whatever else.

In other words, in what was actually a positive and cordial statement he pointed to Manchin by name. In other words, kinda sorta implicitly saying that Manchin was the hold up but that he was optimistic they’d get to a deal. This apparently set Manchin off and led him to torpedo the negotiations and basically the President’s whole domestic agenda. How do we know this? Steven Clemons goes into the details here and Clemons is very close to Manchin.

As Clemons explains, Manchin saw his being named in the statement as “a breach of process, a breach of spirit, a breach of Joe and Joe working this out.” He seems to believe it was Biden’s staff rather than the President himself who committed the lapse. This is what Manchin was apparently referring to this morning when he told a West Virginia talk radio station: “They drove some things, they put some things out that were absolutely inexcusable.”
[…]
None of this changes the reality of the demise of serious climate action or a refundable child tax credit or universal pre-K or a bunch of other things. But it does illuminate the last year and makes clear that ‘getting tough’ on Manchin wasn’t really a tool the White House had in its arsenal. Just putting out a press release that named him and made him feel bad and somehow made him think people would blame him for what was happening made him go postal.

So, he got triggered by that? Really? Well, he was going to get blamed if he did tank it (which he is). I suspect they're going to blame him almost fully for their loses come next year.

[Imperial Old Mexico]

Good to know that one petty, cretinous little man has basically dissolved Congress.

I wish that I could disown him as a West Virginia native. Unfortunately, the electorate frequently has other ideas. Also, this proves that Biden’s glad handing, backslapping style just doesn’t do the trick anymore. Biden should just triangulate by borrowing a few Republicans who will lend themselves out while McConnell’s back is turned.

[The Jamesian Republic]

Sen. Joe Manchin III last week made the White House a concrete counteroffer for its spending bill, saying he would accept a $1.8 trillion package that included universal prekindergarten for 10 years, an expansion of Obamacare and hundreds of billions of dollars to combat climate change, three people familiar with the matter said. But the West Virginia Democrat’s counteroffer excluded an extension of the expanded child tax credit the administration has seen as a cornerstone of President Biden’s economic legacy, the people said, an omission difficult for the White House to accept in the high-stakes negotiations. The people spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door deliberations. Manchin’s private proposal to the White House — the details of which have not been previously reported — was made just days before a spectacular public collapse in negotiations between the White House and the senator, marked by bitter and personal recriminations that left the status of the talks unclear.[…]
While the precise details of Manchin’s offer remain unclear, it adheres to his repeated demand that Democrats fund its economic programs for 10 years — rather than reducing their top-line cost by funding them for only a few years, people familiar with the matter said.
Manchin’s counteroffer, for instance, included funding universal pre-K for 10 years, rather than partially financing the measure for a few years. Manchin has long been public about his support of prekindergarten education.
On climate change, Manchin backed supporting a scaled-back version of what Democrats had sought — between $500 billion and $600 billion.
[…]
Manchin’s offer also included extending the expansion of the Affordable Care Act approved by Democrats earlier this year — a health care measure that has been a top priority of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). The full scope of Manchin’s plan was not clear, and it remains possible it included other elements of Biden’s proposals. Despite these potential areas of compromise, Manchin’s rejection of the expanded Child Tax Credit would represent an extraordinarily difficult condition for the administration to support. The White House has repeatedly argued that its one-year expansion of the existing expanded child benefit, approved by Democrats in March as part of Biden’s stimulus, has dramatically reduced child poverty and improved the well-being of millions of poor families. If that program expires at the end of this month — as it now appears likely to — then child poverty could move higher in 2022 in the months before the midterm elections.
In her statement on Sunday, Psaki said that Manchin’s offer to the White House was of the “same size and scope as the President’s framework” that the administration released in October. The statement said that “while that framework was missing key priorities, we believed it could lead to a compromise acceptable to all.”

This sounds like a good idea. Why didn’t he just propose this instead? Why act the way he has?

[Aggicificicerous]

this man got handled with kid gloves for fucking months, are you kidding me
what a fucking baby

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Biden could force Manchin to follow suit if he wanted to. Just channel a bit of the LBJ. He doesn't want to because he doesn't care. None of them care. Pelosi's too busy explaining how the hundreds of millions she's made off insider trading is fine. Harris at this point probably can't so much as order dinner without running it past her handlers first. Democratic leadership is all rich old people who don't care about helping people. Manchin is their excuse.

[The Jamesian Republic]

this man got handled with kid gloves for fucking months, are you kidding me
what a fucking baby

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Biden could force Manchin to follow suit if he wanted to. Just channel a bit of the LBJ. He doesn't want to because he doesn't care. None of them care. Pelosi's too busy explaining how the hundreds of millions she's made off insider trading is fine. Harris at this point probably can't so much as order dinner without running it past her handlers first. Democratic leadership is all rich old people who don't care about helping people. Manchin is their excuse.

The same can be said for the Republicans

[Aggicificicerous]

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Biden could force Manchin to follow suit if he wanted to. Just channel a bit of the LBJ. He doesn't want to because he doesn't care. None of them care. Pelosi's too busy explaining how the hundreds of millions she's made off insider trading is fine. Harris at this point probably can't so much as order dinner without running it past her handlers first. Democratic leadership is all rich old people who don't care about helping people. Manchin is their excuse.

The same can be said for the Republicans

Yeah, but nobody expects Republicans to help people.

[The Jamesian Republic]

The same can be said for the Republicans

Yeah, but nobody expects Republicans to help people.

It’s sad though.

[Kowani]

this man got handled with kid gloves for fucking months, are you kidding me
what a fucking baby

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Biden could force Manchin to follow suit if he wanted to. Just channel a bit of the LBJ.

That’s not how that works

The bottom line, here, is that the Johnson Treatment didn't work on Senators who didn't actually want anything
it didn’t work on guys who were just fuss and bullshit. you couldn't give the Johnson Treatment to Strom Thurmond back in the day, either. it worked on someone who actually had tangible goals that could be done by LBJ, and LBJ was one of the best people on the world to be able to find out what people could want and actually deliver it to them-but LBJ had tons more leverage than Biden does and a very different senate ( a 60+ seat majority in a senate that mostly operated under majority rule)
Like how do people think the Johnson treatment worked exactly
It wasn’t some automatic magic wand to get people to “yes”
you just can't do much with somebody who wants for nothing. And you can't go around them because the opposing party is deaf, dumb, and blind to legislative process and their constituents reward them for it

[Kowani]

This sounds like a good idea. Why didn’t he just propose this instead? Why act the way he has?

Depending on your level of cynicism
-he’s trying to do damage control after being outed as a class-a tier jackass
-it’s all kabuki and Manchin just wants to go back to the stalled negotiations where he’s much more comfortable
-he prefers the image of enacting massive cuts to the “liberal agenda” instead of passing policy in a timely fashion

[The Jamesian Republic]

This sounds like a good idea. Why didn’t he just propose this instead? Why act the way he has?

Depending on your level of cynicism
-he’s trying to do damage control after being outed as a class-a tier jackass
-it’s all kabuki and Manchin just wants to go back to the stalled negotiations where he’s much more comfortable
-he prefers the image of enacting massive cuts to the “liberal agenda” instead of passing policy in a timely fashion

It’s still better than nothing. I think the best route to go with is to this
- Back off from BBB for now.
- Work on issues like inflation and the border crisis.
- Once that’s finished perhaps Republicans would be more willing to help.
- Or do none of that and just issue an executive order on it.

[Kowani]

Depending on your level of cynicism
-he’s trying to do damage control after being outed as a class-a tier jackass
-it’s all kabuki and Manchin just wants to go back to the stalled negotiations where he’s much more comfortable
-he prefers the image of enacting massive cuts to the “liberal agenda” instead of passing policy in a timely fashion

It’s still better than nothing. I think the best route to go with is to this
- Back off from BBB for now.
- Work on issues like inflation and the border crisis.
- Once that’s finished perhaps Republicans would be more willing to help.
- Or do none of that and just issue an executive order on it.

This is neither strategically feasible, politically wise, or even slightly realistic

[The Jamesian Republic]

It’s still better than nothing. I think the best route to go with is to this
- Back off from BBB for now.
- Work on issues like inflation and the border crisis.
- Once that’s finished perhaps Republicans would be more willing to help.
- Or do none of that and just issue an executive order on it.

This is neither strategically feasible, politically wise, or even slightly realistic

BBB is going nowhere and it’s wasting time.
Republicans want inflation and the border crisis solved and if that can be done then they might be more willing to vote.
Perhaps the executive order one is too unrealistic but the others could be realistic.