What Form Will The Next Revolution Take?
Posted: Sun Dec 05, 2021 10:57 amThere have been, in recent history, two significant, global-scale revolutionary processes which transformed the architecture of the State, (re)introducing new fundamental political ideologies and modes of government:
- Liberalism, starting with the French and American Revolutions
- Socialism, starting with the Russian Revolution
These each had common features:
They transformed the systems of government in most of what was, during their time, the developed world.
The transformative impact of Liberalism in Europe, the Americas and other overseas European territories is something is most likely taken for granted, and so does not need to be cited here with much evidence. The global impact of Socialism is, however, less conceded - so it is worth mentioning that, aside from the Soviet Union, it was also responsible for much of the post-Soviet architecture of Russia, for Chinese Communism, for National Socialism, for the "New Deal "era of American politics, and the rise of "Social Democracy" in Europe, as well as less quantifiable changes to Western culture.
They depended upon technologies which were not previously available, or responded to the problems of new technological states.
The Liberal revolutions depended on the printing press, both as the medium for the proliferation of anti-State ideology and for the practical requirement for large scale electoral systems. The printing press had previously provoked the Protestant Reformation, which was a direct predecessor to these revolutions in the dismantling of the previous Monarchy.
The Socialist revolutions, in turn, depended on the industrial revolution having already taken place, as they were reactions to the wealth inequalities created by industrialization.. Their proposal to seize the means of production depended on the fact that it had already been centralized (and was more effective in these cases than in attempts to seize agricultural production, which caused shortages).
These added de-jure rights to the populations in question, responding to practical discontents identified as being caused by the lack of these rights.
Liberalism added personal and political rights - Socialism added material rights. In both cases, periods of practical discontent or revolutionary opportunity lead to the explanation that material problems would be alleviated by the incorporation of new rights into the social contract.
With respect to the fundamental conditions of this process, I observe that, in the present:
- The industrial revolution has reached an end state in certain areas, culminating in de-industrialization and in informatization, or, the conversion of the economy to one largely based on information processes, both human and driven by information technology, and not on material production. It has become technologically feasible to genetically engineer the population, to clone them (for the State to produce proprietary population) and to keep them in simulated realities for the reception and manipulation of information most of the time, as in the case of all "glowing screen" interactions, of which this forum is one such use.
- The discontents of the populations of the developed world are no longer primarily material, as there is no scarcity of basic goods. The population mostly considers that it can engage in elections, and so their political discontents have been de-politicized and transformed into cultural discontents - their political problems are with other segments of the population who vote for different policies, or who don't understand what they are voting for.
- There is, however, rising spiritual, social and sexual discontent. There is dissatisfaction with the apparent meaninglessness of paper-pushing, number-crunching work, widespread lack of belief in the "meaning" of life, the purpose of civilization, or anything at all. There is increased social isolation, rising pathological loneliness in the elderly which is mirrored in the patterns of younger people who are not yet physically dying from it, a tendency to have fewer friends or no friends, have no organic connection to the place you live in, and to be unable to communicate with anyone who isn't stuck on their phone, which leads one to also become stuck in friend simulators on glowing screens, which is also fundamentally lonely. There is higher relationship instability, sub-replacement birth rates, and greater "involuntary" celibacy, or, refusal to participate in the sexual marketplace under its current conditions.
- These discontents have lead to the rise of symptom-treatments, rising psychiatric drug use, recreational drug use, and escape into pornography, videogames, etc. There is not, of yet, a serious current of proposed political solution to these new discontents.
So, my questions are:
Is the historical cycle of revolution, of which two examples are provided, ended?
If not, what will be the causes, concepts, and mechanism of the next historical stage of revolution or reformation?
What new forms of government may emerge, out of the full adaption of present technologies into the architecture of the State?
What discontents will motivate people to seek to add new rights for themselves to the social contract? What rights could these be?
What vulnerabilities of the present system will be exploited by what opportunities, to allow it to be changed from within, or from without?
Predicting the future is a very difficult business with a poor record of success, so I consider these to be very difficult questions to answer. I do not know what the answers are. Still, since it costs us very little to consider these questions, and since they are of some material significance, we may well try. Thank you for your input.
- Liberalism, starting with the French and American Revolutions
- Socialism, starting with the Russian Revolution
These each had common features:
They transformed the systems of government in most of what was, during their time, the developed world.
The transformative impact of Liberalism in Europe, the Americas and other overseas European territories is something is most likely taken for granted, and so does not need to be cited here with much evidence. The global impact of Socialism is, however, less conceded - so it is worth mentioning that, aside from the Soviet Union, it was also responsible for much of the post-Soviet architecture of Russia, for Chinese Communism, for National Socialism, for the "New Deal "era of American politics, and the rise of "Social Democracy" in Europe, as well as less quantifiable changes to Western culture.
They depended upon technologies which were not previously available, or responded to the problems of new technological states.
The Liberal revolutions depended on the printing press, both as the medium for the proliferation of anti-State ideology and for the practical requirement for large scale electoral systems. The printing press had previously provoked the Protestant Reformation, which was a direct predecessor to these revolutions in the dismantling of the previous Monarchy.
The Socialist revolutions, in turn, depended on the industrial revolution having already taken place, as they were reactions to the wealth inequalities created by industrialization.. Their proposal to seize the means of production depended on the fact that it had already been centralized (and was more effective in these cases than in attempts to seize agricultural production, which caused shortages).
These added de-jure rights to the populations in question, responding to practical discontents identified as being caused by the lack of these rights.
Liberalism added personal and political rights - Socialism added material rights. In both cases, periods of practical discontent or revolutionary opportunity lead to the explanation that material problems would be alleviated by the incorporation of new rights into the social contract.
With respect to the fundamental conditions of this process, I observe that, in the present:
- The industrial revolution has reached an end state in certain areas, culminating in de-industrialization and in informatization, or, the conversion of the economy to one largely based on information processes, both human and driven by information technology, and not on material production. It has become technologically feasible to genetically engineer the population, to clone them (for the State to produce proprietary population) and to keep them in simulated realities for the reception and manipulation of information most of the time, as in the case of all "glowing screen" interactions, of which this forum is one such use.
- The discontents of the populations of the developed world are no longer primarily material, as there is no scarcity of basic goods. The population mostly considers that it can engage in elections, and so their political discontents have been de-politicized and transformed into cultural discontents - their political problems are with other segments of the population who vote for different policies, or who don't understand what they are voting for.
- There is, however, rising spiritual, social and sexual discontent. There is dissatisfaction with the apparent meaninglessness of paper-pushing, number-crunching work, widespread lack of belief in the "meaning" of life, the purpose of civilization, or anything at all. There is increased social isolation, rising pathological loneliness in the elderly which is mirrored in the patterns of younger people who are not yet physically dying from it, a tendency to have fewer friends or no friends, have no organic connection to the place you live in, and to be unable to communicate with anyone who isn't stuck on their phone, which leads one to also become stuck in friend simulators on glowing screens, which is also fundamentally lonely. There is higher relationship instability, sub-replacement birth rates, and greater "involuntary" celibacy, or, refusal to participate in the sexual marketplace under its current conditions.
- These discontents have lead to the rise of symptom-treatments, rising psychiatric drug use, recreational drug use, and escape into pornography, videogames, etc. There is not, of yet, a serious current of proposed political solution to these new discontents.
So, my questions are:
Is the historical cycle of revolution, of which two examples are provided, ended?
If not, what will be the causes, concepts, and mechanism of the next historical stage of revolution or reformation?
What new forms of government may emerge, out of the full adaption of present technologies into the architecture of the State?
What discontents will motivate people to seek to add new rights for themselves to the social contract? What rights could these be?
What vulnerabilities of the present system will be exploited by what opportunities, to allow it to be changed from within, or from without?
Predicting the future is a very difficult business with a poor record of success, so I consider these to be very difficult questions to answer. I do not know what the answers are. Still, since it costs us very little to consider these questions, and since they are of some material significance, we may well try. Thank you for your input.