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Russia tests anti-satellite weapon, debris threatens ISS

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Senkaku
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Postby Senkaku » Tue Nov 16, 2021 9:16 am

Hukhalia wrote:glad to see this thread immediately devolve into the "russia bad" geopolitical narrative rather than a broader take on the folly of imperial power politics leading to shit like this in the first place

I mean not all the imperial powers are this reckless with their ASAT tests, if they’re going to do space imperialism the least we could ask for is that it be competent space imperialism
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Rusozak
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Postby Rusozak » Tue Nov 16, 2021 9:19 am

Kaczynskisatva wrote:
Rusozak wrote:The ISS that the Russian space agency partly owns and has cosmonauts aboard did a publicity stunt to make Russia look bad? And your source is... what, gut feeling?


I don't know who makes the decision on the ISS for everyone to shelter in place. Anti-satellite weapons tests are not new, and not exclusive to the Russians. This amounts to complaining that the Russians are a world power, it does not make sense, in that there are not sensible propositions which emerge from it. "Russians are bad if they test anti-satellite weapons" is not a proposition that will be generalized to "nations should not test anti-satellite weapons" because NATO also does this.


And I'm sure if any other nation tested ASAT weapons and created debris that could threaten the ISS they'd use the same precautions. I would be jumpy too if I was in a thin aluminum can hurtling at 5 miles a second.
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Postby Stellar Colonies » Tue Nov 16, 2021 9:22 am

Ifreann wrote:Can we please stop filling orbital space with shit? Do we really want to be the species that trapped themselves on their home planet because they wouldn't stop littering? The Vulcans will be talking down to us for centuries.

No you see, we're creating a barrier to keep out the aliens.
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ImperialRussia
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Postby ImperialRussia » Tue Nov 16, 2021 9:24 am

Ya Russia doesn’t needs the CIA look at them from space once a while destroying CIA and FBI recon from space.
Last edited by ImperialRussia on Tue Nov 16, 2021 9:24 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Duvniask » Tue Nov 16, 2021 9:24 am

Ifreann wrote:Can we please stop filling orbital space with shit? Do we really want to be the species that trapped themselves on their home planet because they wouldn't stop littering? The Vulcans will be talking down to us for centuries.

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Postby Ifreann » Tue Nov 16, 2021 9:32 am

Stellar Colonies wrote:
Ifreann wrote:Can we please stop filling orbital space with shit? Do we really want to be the species that trapped themselves on their home planet because they wouldn't stop littering? The Vulcans will be talking down to us for centuries.

No you see, we're creating a barrier to keep out the aliens.

Boo, we want aliens!
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Postby Kubra » Tue Nov 16, 2021 9:32 am

Petrolas wrote:USA and China commited tests like this too, crying about it on forums wont stop Putin from doing it. Cry harder.
China does, but the US doesn't (these days).
Again: if it's something the US won't even do, it's usually a clear sign not to do that.
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Postby Just-An-Illusion » Tue Nov 16, 2021 9:33 am

Looks like the events of Battlefield 2042 are coming true....
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Kaczynskisatva
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Postby Kaczynskisatva » Tue Nov 16, 2021 10:17 am

Grenartia wrote:While ASATs in general are a threat to orbital infrastructure, and the US, Russia, India, and China have all demonstrated ASAT capability, this test was ESPECIALLY egregious and dangerous, and it is intellectually dishonest to pretend that the concerns and condemnations surrounding it are borne of 'russophobia' or whatever other nonsense.

Any nation with Russia's level of experience in space would have to know that conducting an ASAT test with that particular target, in that particular orbit, at that particular time, would cause a debris cloud that would endanger the station and its crew.

There is no innocent excuse for Russia here. They were either acting maliciously or incompetently, and in either case, they definitely acted negligently and irresponsibly.

While the US and India's most recent ASAT tests seem to have been carried out responsibly, against satellites that were already on decaying trajectories, Russia and China seem to have a blatant disregard for avoiding Kessler Syndrome.


Since neither of us have a special familiarity with space technology, and this forum is full of hot takes, I'm going to take this opportunity to double down on my base null hypothesis that there is nothing special about Russian and Chinese antisatellite tests compared to NATO / India tests, and that this is just the "Russia bad" talking point for the day, pushed by people who assume that you will not learn about orbital mechanics and the data from all the tests, to come to the conclusion that there is no practical difference.

If you, yourself, actually have some professional familiarity with orbital mechanics and the debris splashes from antisatellite tests, this is your opportunity to chime in. I will listen.

Otherwise, you are expecting me to believe a complex proposition about technology from the guys who brought me "Iraq WMD" and who do the "Russia bad" bit non-stop and are constantly grasping for a new object to spin into that bit. This is an incomprehensible data package sent from a known unreliable sender, it's not worth the time to try to decipher, as I have no reason to assume that I would get good returns on time investment from trying to do this.

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Kaczynskisatva
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Postby Kaczynskisatva » Tue Nov 16, 2021 10:19 am

Ifreann wrote:Can we please stop filling orbital space with shit? Do we really want to be the species that trapped themselves on their home planet because they wouldn't stop littering? The Vulcans will be talking down to us for centuries.


By the time anyone has technology to leave the planet, they will have the technology to sent up a fleet of space drones with lasers on their heads, to vaporize all the junk. Until then, satellites are working fine. There is much more space than junk out there.

edit: fixed quote attribution re following post
Last edited by Kaczynskisatva on Wed Nov 17, 2021 7:27 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Duvniask
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Postby Duvniask » Tue Nov 16, 2021 10:20 am

Kaczynskisatva wrote:
Duvniask wrote:Can we please stop filling orbital space with shit? Do we really want to be the species that trapped themselves on their home planet because they wouldn't stop littering? The Vulcans will be talking down to us for centuries.


By the time anyone has technology to leave the planet, they will have the technology to sent up a fleet of space drones with lasers on their heads, to vaporize all the junk. Until then, satellites are working fine. There is much more space than junk out there.

You seriously messed up the quote function on that one.
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Postby Ethel mermania » Tue Nov 16, 2021 11:30 am

The New California Republic wrote:
Kaczynskisatva wrote:[...]

If you saw that the ISS did a publicity stunt, you should consider the fact that it has no relation to physical reality, and is just a publicity stunt. This would line up with what we know about the ISS itself, which has almost no relation to anything useful, and is mostly itself a publicity stunt.

You do know that repeating the same thing multiple times doesn't make it true, right?

That's not what they said during the snark hunt
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Ethel mermania
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Postby Ethel mermania » Tue Nov 16, 2021 11:32 am

Ifreann wrote:
Stellar Colonies wrote:No you see, we're creating a barrier to keep out the aliens.

Boo, we want aliens!

Smart aliens would avoid this planet like the plague
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Postby Grenartia » Tue Nov 16, 2021 11:49 am

Hukhalia wrote:glad to see this thread immediately devolve into the "russia bad" geopolitical narrative rather than a broader take on the folly of imperial power politics leading to shit like this in the first place


Nobody's provoking Russia into doing this. And if you want to talk about the "folly of imperial power politics", then you had best be prepared to say "russia bad", because Russia is an imperialist state, just like China, and just like the US.

Russia is not immune to criticism, and only Putin stans will disagree.

Dakini wrote:
Grenartia wrote:
I believe its split between the US and Russia, seeing as those are the countries where the two mission control centers for it are located.

It also belongs to ESA, CSA and JAXA (the European, Canadian and Japanese space programmes).


Right, but those are all on the USOS. And the mission control centers are still in Houston and Moscow. Now, I'll admit I have no idea how command is shared between those two places, but immediate decisions about crew safety and station integrity obviously come from those locations.

Kubra wrote:
Kaczynskisatva wrote:Here we have an opinion on politics, where you should be having an opinion on astrophysics.

Everyone who can is testing anti-satellite weapons whenever they can, creating new debris in orbit and debris velocities through orbit. Space debris is a running problem for the ISS.

If you saw that the ISS did a publicity stunt, you should consider the fact that it has no relation to physical reality, and is just a publicity stunt. This would line up with what we know about the ISS itself, which has almost no relation to anything useful, and is mostly itself a publicity stunt.
Not really. Let's look at ballistic ASAT's: If we consider the category of "everyone who can" we'll notice an absence of European's, particularly France, who could and would do so if the flex-value (the main impetus of its military projects) was worth the trouble. The US is also weirdly absent in the modern era, which is of course telling as to the wisdom of conducting such tests. I mean if the US won't touch it then that usually means it's beyond the pale, you feel?
Current research is general geared towards laser-based systems that would not necessarily destroy satellites, for obvious reasons.


To be fair, the US *does* have the capability, they just haven't exercised it since 2008 (inb4 someone says "that we know of", taking down a satellite cannot be done stealthily, because there is no stealth in space, and shooting down someone else's satellite would probably be considered an act of war, so unless someone wants war, the only satellites that are being shot down by any nation, are their own).

Senkaku wrote:
Hukhalia wrote:glad to see this thread immediately devolve into the "russia bad" geopolitical narrative rather than a broader take on the folly of imperial power politics leading to shit like this in the first place

I mean not all the imperial powers are this reckless with their ASAT tests, if they’re going to do space imperialism the least we could ask for is that it be competent space imperialism


US and India: *shoot down decrepit satellites in already decaying orbits, minimizing debris that stays in space*
Russia and China: *pew pew pew, who gives a shit about where the debris goes!*

Rusozak wrote:
Kaczynskisatva wrote:
I don't know who makes the decision on the ISS for everyone to shelter in place. Anti-satellite weapons tests are not new, and not exclusive to the Russians. This amounts to complaining that the Russians are a world power, it does not make sense, in that there are not sensible propositions which emerge from it. "Russians are bad if they test anti-satellite weapons" is not a proposition that will be generalized to "nations should not test anti-satellite weapons" because NATO also does this.


And I'm sure if any other nation tested ASAT weapons and created debris that could threaten the ISS they'd use the same precautions. I would be jumpy too if I was in a thin aluminum can hurtling at 5 miles a second.


Yeah, anyone who objects to criticism of Russia over this as "russia bad"-ism should be well aware that most of us would be criticizing the US just as much if it pulled some shit like this.

Petrolas wrote:USA and China commited tests like this too


As I already pointed out, the American test isn't even in the same league as this one, and it was pretty obviously a response to the Chinese test in 07, which was condemned at large for its recklessness.

, crying about it on forums wont stop Putin from doing it.


Nobody's under any illusion that random forum posts are going to stop Putin. But US action (and Chinese action, since their station is also at risk from the debris generated by this test, the last I checked) will.

Cry harder.


Crying about people expressing their opinions on an issue that has the potential to affect their quality of life won't stop them from doing so, no matter how hard you try to paint that expression as "crying".

Kubra wrote:
Petrolas wrote:USA and China commited tests like this too, crying about it on forums wont stop Putin from doing it. Cry harder.
China does, but the US doesn't (these days).
Again: if it's something the US won't even do, it's usually a clear sign not to do that.


Really, the 08 test was just an indication that the US has the ability to do it with slight modifications to equipment they already have in widespread use, without much specialized equipment.

Kaczynskisatva wrote:
Grenartia wrote:While ASATs in general are a threat to orbital infrastructure, and the US, Russia, India, and China have all demonstrated ASAT capability, this test was ESPECIALLY egregious and dangerous, and it is intellectually dishonest to pretend that the concerns and condemnations surrounding it are borne of 'russophobia' or whatever other nonsense.

Any nation with Russia's level of experience in space would have to know that conducting an ASAT test with that particular target, in that particular orbit, at that particular time, would cause a debris cloud that would endanger the station and its crew.

There is no innocent excuse for Russia here. They were either acting maliciously or incompetently, and in either case, they definitely acted negligently and irresponsibly.

While the US and India's most recent ASAT tests seem to have been carried out responsibly, against satellites that were already on decaying trajectories, Russia and China seem to have a blatant disregard for avoiding Kessler Syndrome.


Since neither of us have a special familiarity with space technology,


I'm probably more well informed on the subject than most. Space has always been a passion of mine, and I did study physics in college (including acing my astrodynamics class). Which isn't to say that nobody posting here knows more than me (in fact, I can name several people off the top of my head, at least one of whom has already posted in this thread) who would know more than me, but I would be willing to bet if I said something, they would not find much fault with it.

and this forum is full of hot takes, I'm going to take this opportunity to double down on my base null hypothesis that there is nothing special about Russian and Chinese antisatellite tests compared to NATO / India tests,


I mean, you can do that. You'll be wrong, but you can do it.

and that this is just the "Russia bad" talking point for the day,


As I've already pointed out, if America did this, I'd be just as strong in my condemnation as I am now.

pushed by people who assume that you will not learn about orbital mechanics and the data from all the tests, to come to the conclusion that there is no practical difference. If you, yourself, actually have some professional familiarity with orbital mechanics and the debris splashes from antisatellite tests, this is your opportunity to chime in. I will listen.


For my final project in Astrodynamics, my task was to use GMAT (General Mission Analysis Tool, software actually published by NASA) to plan a Mars mission. I passed with flying colors.

At the risk of sounding arrogant, I'd argue that qualifies me as having adequate familiarity with orbital mechanics.

Otherwise, you are expecting me to believe a complex proposition about technology


I'm not really sure what this "complex proposition" you're having a hard time with is.

from the guys who brought me "Iraq WMD"


Not even close.

and who do the "Russia bad" bit non-stop and are constantly grasping for a new object to spin into that bit. This is an incomprehensible data package sent from a known unreliable sender, it's not worth the time to try to decipher, as I have no reason to assume that I would get good returns on time investment from trying to do this.


What is so incomprehensible?

Kaczynskisatva wrote:
Duvniask wrote:Can we please stop filling orbital space with shit? Do we really want to be the species that trapped themselves on their home planet because they wouldn't stop littering? The Vulcans will be talking down to us for centuries.


By the time anyone has technology to leave the planet, they will have the technology to sent up a fleet of space drones with lasers on their heads, to vaporize all the junk. Until then, satellites are working fine. There is much more space than junk out there.


My guy, this isn't esoteric propaganda being peddled by a shadowy government. This is easily verifiable fact, based in science. There are hobbyists with telescopes that track this stuff, and use open source methods of sharing their observations. That's how the test was public knowledge before the US and Russian governments issued any acknowledgment of the test. They're obviously not going to be able to track microscopic debris (and due to various limitations, neither can those governments, though they can track smaller debris than the hobbyists can).

These hobbyists can see satellites, and can track where they are supposed to be at a given time. If a satellite doesn't show up when it was supposed to, then it was either destroyed when you couldn't see it, or made a maneuver. And making a maneuver is impossible for a dead sat (which the targeted one was). And if you have publicly-available knowledge that the ISS had to take precautions at a certain time due to debris (which you do, because NASA makes that kind of thing public knowledge), it isn't hard to correlate that with a known satellite.

As for "more space than junk", that is true, but only as long as we don't carry out tests like this. Kesseler Syndrome is a bitch. And if you want a non-jargon explanation for what that is, go watch the movie Gravity. Or read a synopsis of it.
Last edited by Grenartia on Tue Nov 16, 2021 11:58 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby RiderSyl » Tue Nov 16, 2021 11:53 am

Rusozak wrote:...Isn't this exactly how the movie Gravity started?

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Postby Kubra » Tue Nov 16, 2021 12:10 pm

Grenartia wrote:
Kubra wrote: Not really. Let's look at ballistic ASAT's: If we consider the category of "everyone who can" we'll notice an absence of European's, particularly France, who could and would do so if the flex-value (the main impetus of its military projects) was worth the trouble. The US is also weirdly absent in the modern era, which is of course telling as to the wisdom of conducting such tests. I mean if the US won't touch it then that usually means it's beyond the pale, you feel?
Current research is general geared towards laser-based systems that would not necessarily destroy satellites, for obvious reasons.


To be fair, the US *does* have the capability, they just haven't exercised it since 2008 (inb4 someone says "that we know of", taking down a satellite cannot be done stealthily, because there is no stealth in space, and shooting down someone else's satellite would probably be considered an act of war, so unless someone wants war, the only satellites that are being shot down by any nation, are their own).
The US thing in 2008 was very different. It had a veneer of officiality for not being a test, was undertaken in a much safer manner, and frankly has been revealed by time as a one off thing. Western efforts in general towards ASAT's has been towards non-ballistic methods, since they have the dosh to throw around for these sorts of "environmentally friendly" weapons of war, which would also explain why russia is back to ballistic means to solve the problem.
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Postby Fartsniffage » Tue Nov 16, 2021 12:12 pm

Ethel mermania wrote:
Ifreann wrote:Boo, we want aliens!

Smart aliens would avoid this planet like the plague


Based on recent evidence there would be plenty of them who would want to lick the plague planet.

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Postby Fartsniffage » Tue Nov 16, 2021 12:15 pm

Grenartia wrote:US and India: *shoot down decrepit satellites in already decaying orbits, minimizing debris that stays in space*
Russia and China: *pew pew pew, who gives a shit about where the debris goes!*


India went even further than that. They launched a specific target satellite into an extremely low orbit that they calculated would mean that the debris would de-orbit in a few weeks.

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Postby Dakini » Tue Nov 16, 2021 12:16 pm

Fartsniffage wrote:
Ethel mermania wrote:Smart aliens would avoid this planet like the plague


Based on recent evidence there would be plenty of them who would want to lick the plague planet.

I feel like any space-faring civilization would leave those people at home though.

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Postby Azania- » Tue Nov 16, 2021 12:31 pm

Dakini wrote:
Fartsniffage wrote:
Based on recent evidence there would be plenty of them who would want to lick the plague planet.

I feel like any space-faring civilization would leave those people at home though.

Hell if it were up to me they'd be the only ones I send into space so I wouldn't have to deal with them.
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Postby Rapachia » Tue Nov 16, 2021 12:37 pm

Bruh. You really believe in that crap. It was goddamnit 40km close to IIS. It couldn't even collide! Don't believe in everything America tells you (P. S. I'm from Russia)

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Postby Fartsniffage » Tue Nov 16, 2021 12:38 pm

Rapachia wrote:Bruh. You really believe in that crap. It was goddamnit 40km close to IIS. It couldn't even collide! Don't believe in everything America tells you (P. S. I'm from Russia)


40km is space is really fucking close.

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Hukhalia
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Postby Hukhalia » Tue Nov 16, 2021 12:48 pm

Senkaku wrote:
Hukhalia wrote:glad to see this thread immediately devolve into the "russia bad" geopolitical narrative rather than a broader take on the folly of imperial power politics leading to shit like this in the first place

I mean not all the imperial powers are this reckless with their ASAT tests, if they’re going to do space imperialism the least we could ask for is that it be competent space imperialism

ok but what about no space imperialism at all
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Postby The New California Republic » Tue Nov 16, 2021 12:53 pm

Rapachia wrote:Bruh. You really believe in that crap. It was goddamnit 40km close to IIS. It couldn't even collide! Don't believe in everything America tells you (P. S. I'm from Russia)

When orbital debris moves at 7 to 8 km/s, which it does, then distances like 40km become relatively short. The chaotic nature of explosions combined with the speed of the debris makes calculating debris spread relative to the ISS quite difficult, so the alarm created by the incident was real.
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Grenartia
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Postby Grenartia » Tue Nov 16, 2021 12:58 pm

Fartsniffage wrote:
Rapachia wrote:Bruh. You really believe in that crap. It was goddamnit 40km close to IIS. It couldn't even collide! Don't believe in everything America tells you (P. S. I'm from Russia)


40km is space is really fucking close.


Well, if they're at all representative of the state of basic scientific education in Russia, it makes me feel a lot better about the state of basic scientific education in America.
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