Russia tests anti-satellite weapon, debris threatens ISS

[Shofercia]

You're confusing the odds of the space station being hit with the timing. I'm talking about the odds. Parsecs are distance units, not time units. In order to hit the space station, the debris wouldn't just have to strike at the right second, it would have to strike at the right centi-second or milli-second, which would make the odds of the ISS getting hit the equivalent of the odds of a 99th ranked tennis star winning Wimbledon, which was my point. Yes, things happen very quickly when we're talking about the destructive power of missiles, but if the Iron Dome's missiles missed all of the Palestinian Rockets in any reasonably given time period by a mere second, guess who'd be out of a job? At least one missile commander in Israel. So yes, things happen fast with missiles. Very fast. But the odds of said debris actually hitting the ISS were negligible, which was my point. Was it a dick thing to do? Possibly, and I've already said that.

No sir. That's profoundly stupid and ignorant. Timing is essential to orbital mechanics. And the difference of a milli-second in the launch time of that missile, or a millimeter in the angle in which it struck it's target, could easily have translated into a 40 kilometer shift in orbit of the debris.

40 km at orbital velocities is nothing. It's like an airplane buzzing you by an inch at Mach 2. If the Blue Angles pull that off as part of a performance, you can say it was a carefully calculated maneuver with negligible odds of a disaster. If a random fucking MiG blindsides a passenger plane like that, it's not a carefully calculated maneuver, it's a mistake. And reckless endangerment. Not just a "dick move."

You keep saying the odds are low, but you don't know the odds. You haven't shown your math to prove that they are low. And I'll wager you are incapable of that kind of math.

You've yet to show how the odds weren't low, so you've successfully resorted to personal attacks, i.e. "I'll wager you are incapable of that kind of math" and that's just sad. Also comparing the best pilots in the UK to Russian rookies, is... questionable at best, as is implying that Russian rookies would be in charge of an ASAT launch that occurs once in a... very long time. In fact, any sane country would put their best people, i.e. the equivalent of its Blue Angels, on an ASAT launch, rather than trusting it to the rookies. So if the British Blue Angels do it, that's a carefully calculated maneuver with negligible odds of a disaster but if the Russian equivalent of the British Blue Angels do it, that's a mistake. And reckless endangerment. Not just a "dick move."

Got it! And there's absolutely no "hurr durr Russia bad" commentary here, no sir, just straight up... sorry, couldn't been a straight face as I was typing that.

As far as calculating the odds, I'd say it's somewhere below the odds of Iraq actually having WMDs, Jussie Smollett being an actual victim, Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq becoming democracies as a result of brutal invasions/government overthrows, or Ukraine's healthcare improving as a result of Dr. Death's healthcare reform.

Regarding the actual numbers needed for said calculations, first I'd have to know the capabilities of the ASAT missile, which are, wait for it, classified, so implying that I'm unable to do calculations because I don't have access to classified material required for said calculations, in an attempt to insult me... erm, let's just say that's not very effective. However, if I did have that data, I'd require a computer to actually run all of the possible scenarios, and provide a report with the possibility of scenarios where the ISS gets hit, versus the possibility of scenarios where the ISS doesn't get hit, and then I'd simply subtract and divide. But yes, it's a bit hard to calculate data when the initial numbers are classified.

No sir. That's profoundly stupid and ignorant. Timing is essential to orbital mechanics. And the difference of a milli-second in the launch time of that missile, or a millimeter in the angle in which it struck it's target, could easily have translated into a 40 kilometer shift in orbit of the debris.

40 km at orbital velocities is nothing. It's like an airplane buzzing you by an inch at Mach 2. If the Blue Angles pull that off as part of a performance, you can say it was a carefully calculated maneuver with negligible odds of a disaster. If a random fucking MiG blindsides a passenger plane like that, it's not a carefully calculated maneuver, it's a mistake. And reckless endangerment. Not just a "dick move."

You keep saying the odds are low, but you don't know the odds. You haven't shown your math to prove that they are low. And I'll wager you are incapable of that kind of math.

But actually doing the math and taking into consideration how differently things work in space would mean that Russia possibly did something bad.

And we can't have that happen now, can we?

...I've criticized Russia several times, including on the First Chechen War and Gay Rights...

That's from my response, to you, but I see you've adopted the Chris Cuomo tactic of ignoring actual facts and chanting the narrative. Have fun with that.

[Great Algerstonia]

Did ISS juke the anti-satellite weapons like the pro athletes they are? I bet they schooled the Russians

[Shofercia]

Did ISS juke the anti-satellite weapons like the pro athletes they are? I bet they schooled the Russians

The ASAT missile's target was the satellite, not the ISS. That said, if ISS had that kind of juking ability, that'd be rad.

[Belshekistan]

слава россии!

[Antipatros]

We should really consider an international anti-satellite weapon test ban. There should be certain limits on the militarization of space.

[Dogmeat]

No sir. That's profoundly stupid and ignorant. Timing is essential to orbital mechanics. And the difference of a milli-second in the launch time of that missile, or a millimeter in the angle in which it struck it's target, could easily have translated into a 40 kilometer shift in orbit of the debris.

40 km at orbital velocities is nothing. It's like an airplane buzzing you by an inch at Mach 2. If the Blue Angles pull that off as part of a performance, you can say it was a carefully calculated maneuver with negligible odds of a disaster. If a random fucking MiG blindsides a passenger plane like that, it's not a carefully calculated maneuver, it's a mistake. And reckless endangerment. Not just a "dick move."

You keep saying the odds are low, but you don't know the odds. You haven't shown your math to prove that they are low. And I'll wager you are incapable of that kind of math.

You've yet to show how the odds weren't low, so you've successfully resorted to personal attacks, i.e. "I'll wager you are incapable of that kind of math" and that's just sad. Also comparing the best pilots in the UK to Russian rookies, is... questionable at best, as is implying that Russian rookies would be in charge of an ASAT launch that occurs once in a... very long time. In fact, any sane country would put their best people, i.e. the equivalent of its Blue Angels, on an ASAT launch, rather than trusting it to the rookies. So if the British Blue Angels do it, that's a carefully calculated maneuver with negligible odds of a disaster but if the Russian equivalent of the British Blue Angels do it, that's a mistake. And reckless endangerment. Not just a "dick move."

Got it! And there's absolutely no "hurr durr Russia bad" commentary here, no sir, just straight up... sorry, couldn't been a straight face as I was typing that.

As far as calculating the odds, I'd say it's somewhere below the odds of Iraq actually having WMDs, Jussie Smollett being an actual victim, Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq becoming democracies as a result of brutal invasions/government overthrows, or Ukraine's healthcare improving as a result of Dr. Death's healthcare reform.

Regarding the actual numbers needed for said calculations, first I'd have to know the capabilities of the ASAT missile, which are, wait for it, classified, so implying that I'm unable to do calculations because I don't have access to classified material required for said calculations, in an attempt to insult me... erm, let's just say that's not very effective. However, if I did have that data, I'd require a computer to actually run all of the possible scenarios, and provide a report with the possibility of scenarios where the ISS gets hit, versus the possibility of scenarios where the ISS doesn't get hit, and then I'd simply subtract and divide. But yes, it's a bit hard to calculate data when the initial numbers are classified.

But actually doing the math and taking into consideration how differently things work in space would mean that Russia possibly did something bad.

And we can't have that happen now, can we?

...I've criticized Russia several times, including on the First Chechen War and Gay Rights...

That's from my response, to you, but I see you've adopted the Chris Cuomo tactic of ignoring actual facts and chanting the narrative. Have fun with that.

You see these big walls of text, and you think it must be a well thought out effort-post.

But no. It's just whining.

[Shofercia]

You've yet to show how the odds weren't low, so you've successfully resorted to personal attacks, i.e. "I'll wager you are incapable of that kind of math" and that's just sad. Also comparing the best pilots in the UK to Russian rookies, is... questionable at best, as is implying that Russian rookies would be in charge of an ASAT launch that occurs once in a... very long time. In fact, any sane country would put their best people, i.e. the equivalent of its Blue Angels, on an ASAT launch, rather than trusting it to the rookies. So if the British Blue Angels do it, that's a carefully calculated maneuver with negligible odds of a disaster but if the Russian equivalent of the British Blue Angels do it, that's a mistake. And reckless endangerment. Not just a "dick move."

Got it! And there's absolutely no "hurr durr Russia bad" commentary here, no sir, just straight up... sorry, couldn't been a straight face as I was typing that.

As far as calculating the odds, I'd say it's somewhere below the odds of Iraq actually having WMDs, Jussie Smollett being an actual victim, Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq becoming democracies as a result of brutal invasions/government overthrows, or Ukraine's healthcare improving as a result of Dr. Death's healthcare reform.

Regarding the actual numbers needed for said calculations, first I'd have to know the capabilities of the ASAT missile, which are, wait for it, classified, so implying that I'm unable to do calculations because I don't have access to classified material required for said calculations, in an attempt to insult me... erm, let's just say that's not very effective. However, if I did have that data, I'd require a computer to actually run all of the possible scenarios, and provide a report with the possibility of scenarios where the ISS gets hit, versus the possibility of scenarios where the ISS doesn't get hit, and then I'd simply subtract and divide. But yes, it's a bit hard to calculate data when the initial numbers are classified.






That's from my response, to you, but I see you've adopted the Chris Cuomo tactic of ignoring actual facts and chanting the narrative. Have fun with that.

You see these big walls of text, and you think it must be a well thought out effort-post.

But no. It's just whining.

If you think that pointing out that countries put their best people on ASAT tests is just whining, I can't help you. If you think that 5 lines of text, at most, per paragraph, and a grand total of five paragraphs and 14 lines equates to a wall of text, (as the rest were quotes,) I really can't help you.

[Neanderthaland]

You see these big walls of text, and you think it must be a well thought out effort-post.

But no. It's just whining.

If you think that pointing out that countries put their best people on ASAT tests is just whining, I can't help you. If you think that 5 lines of text, at most, per paragraph, and a grand total of five paragraphs and 14 lines equates to a wall of text, (as the rest were quotes,) I really can't help you.

Nothing of substance was said.

You talk about "ignoring actual facts." But you haven't brought up any actual facts. You just keep insisting that Russia is a very professional country, that put together a team very professional people, to create this very professional shotgun blast of debris that almost hit the ISS.

40 km, at orbital velocities, is the sort of distance that could be produced by the missile hitting the satellite a millimeter to the left. Or a fraction of a second earlier or later. The fact that the debris came within 40 km of the ISS is proof that Russia wasn't thinking about this at all. Because if they were thinking about it would have known that they couldn't possibly guarantee that the debris wouldn't hit the ISS. 40 km is within any reasonable margin of error in this kind of test. They would have rescheduled the test to make sure they couldn't come within 1000 km of the ISS.

And if they were thinking about it, that's worse. Because then they totally understood they might hit the ISS. There was no way to guarantee that they wouldn't. And they just did it anyway.

If Russia wants to combat the stereotype that they talk big, but frankly we think he's short of know-how, then they should stop doing stupid shit like this.

[Shofercia]

If you think that pointing out that countries put their best people on ASAT tests is just whining, I can't help you. If you think that 5 lines of text, at most, per paragraph, and a grand total of five paragraphs and 14 lines equates to a wall of text, (as the rest were quotes,) I really can't help you.

Nothing of substance was said.

You talk about "ignoring actual facts." But you haven't brought up any actual facts. You just keep insisting that Russia is a very professional country, that put together a team very professional people, to create this very professional shotgun blast of debris that almost hit the ISS.

40 km, at orbital velocities, is the sort of distance that could be produced by the missile hitting the satellite a millimeter to the left. Or a fraction of a second earlier or later. The fact that the debris came within 40 km of the ISS is proof that Russia wasn't thinking about this at all. Because if they were thinking about it would have known that they couldn't possibly guarantee that the debris wouldn't hit the ISS. 40 km is within any reasonable margin of error in this kind of test. They would have rescheduled the test to make sure they couldn't come within 1000 km of the ISS.

And if they were thinking about it, that's worse. Because then they totally understood they might hit the ISS. There was no way to guarantee that they wouldn't. And they just did it anyway.

If Russia wants to combat the stereotype that they talk big, but frankly we think he's short of know-how, then they should stop doing stupid shit like this.

Was the ASAT test successful? Yes it was.
Was the ISS hit? No it wasn't.
Are Russian missile tests generally extremely accurate? Yes, they are.
Has the unit conducting the test ever fucked up in a real life test? No idea, but I doubt it.

That's at least three actual facts that were brought up. Claiming that Russia wasn't thinking about debris during a satellite fallout is simply ignorant. As for there's no way to guarantee, that's just like your opinion, and apparently the Russians disagreed, and conducted a successful ASAT test that didn't hit the ISS, because missile tests aren't conducted to put everyone at ease, they're conducted to say "we're so damn confident in our missile systems, that we're willing to ensure accuracy to the millimeter!" Missiles hitting missiles need to be that accurate, and although the target here was a satellite, the technology's very similar.

But hey, keep on posting random YT links, thus far it's the best counterargument you've got.

[Comerciante]

Nothing of substance was said.

You talk about "ignoring actual facts." But you haven't brought up any actual facts. You just keep insisting that Russia is a very professional country, that put together a team very professional people, to create this very professional shotgun blast of debris that almost hit the ISS.

40 km, at orbital velocities, is the sort of distance that could be produced by the missile hitting the satellite a millimeter to the left. Or a fraction of a second earlier or later. The fact that the debris came within 40 km of the ISS is proof that Russia wasn't thinking about this at all. Because if they were thinking about it would have known that they couldn't possibly guarantee that the debris wouldn't hit the ISS. 40 km is within any reasonable margin of error in this kind of test. They would have rescheduled the test to make sure they couldn't come within 1000 km of the ISS.

And if they were thinking about it, that's worse. Because then they totally understood they might hit the ISS. There was no way to guarantee that they wouldn't. And they just did it anyway.

If Russia wants to combat the stereotype that they talk big, but frankly we think he's short of know-how, then they should stop doing stupid shit like this.

Was the ASAT test successful? Yes it was.
Was the ISS hit? No it wasn't.
Are Russian missile tests generally extremely accurate? Yes, they are.
Has the unit conducting the test ever fucked up in a real life test? No idea, but I doubt it.

That's at least three actual facts that were brought up. Claiming that Russia wasn't thinking about debris during a satellite fallout is simply ignorant. As for there's no way to guarantee, that's just like your opinion, and apparently the Russians disagreed, and conducted a successful ASAT test that didn't hit the ISS, because missile tests aren't conducted to put everyone at ease, they're conducted to say "we're so damn confident in our missile systems, that we're willing to ensure accuracy to the millimeter!" Missiles hitting missiles need to be that accurate, and although the target here was a satellite, the technology's very similar.

But hey, keep on posting random YT links, thus far it's the best counterargument you've got.

So the Russians purposely endangered the ISS? is that it?

[Neanderthaland]

Nothing of substance was said.

You talk about "ignoring actual facts." But you haven't brought up any actual facts. You just keep insisting that Russia is a very professional country, that put together a team very professional people, to create this very professional shotgun blast of debris that almost hit the ISS.

40 km, at orbital velocities, is the sort of distance that could be produced by the missile hitting the satellite a millimeter to the left. Or a fraction of a second earlier or later. The fact that the debris came within 40 km of the ISS is proof that Russia wasn't thinking about this at all. Because if they were thinking about it would have known that they couldn't possibly guarantee that the debris wouldn't hit the ISS. 40 km is within any reasonable margin of error in this kind of test. They would have rescheduled the test to make sure they couldn't come within 1000 km of the ISS.

And if they were thinking about it, that's worse. Because then they totally understood they might hit the ISS. There was no way to guarantee that they wouldn't. And they just did it anyway.

If Russia wants to combat the stereotype that they talk big, but frankly we think he's short of know-how, then they should stop doing stupid shit like this.

Was the ASAT test successful? Yes it was.
Was the ISS hit? No it wasn't.
Are Russian missile tests generally extremely accurate? Yes, they are.

Enough to predict the debris spread to within 40 km at orbital velocities? No. That's a function of pure chance. It would be like predicting where a specific shotgun pellet would go.

That's at least three actual facts that were brought up. Claiming that Russia wasn't thinking about debris during a satellite fallout is simply ignorant.

It's the most sensible reading of the facts. If they were thinking about debris, then they purposefully scheduled the test in such a way as to put the ISS at risk.

As for there's no way to guarantee, that's just like your opinion,

No. That's how orbital mechanics work. Tiny variables result in massive fucking trajectory changes at orbital velocities.

and apparently the Russians disagreed, and conducted a successful ASAT test that didn't hit the ISS,

I'm sure they would have disagreed with criticisms of RBMK reactors in 1985 too. But it sure looks like they didn't think about it at all. If they did, then they are profoundly stupid.

because missile tests aren't conducted to put everyone at ease, they're conducted to say "we're so damn confident in our missile systems, that we're willing to ensure accuracy to the millimeter!

That's fucking nonsense. Nobody can predict missile accuracy to that degree, and everyone knows it. This is like firing a shotgun at someone's head, and the spread just so happens not to hit them by pure chance. And then claiming it was your incredible accuracy that caused the pellets to spread that way. You would have to be stupid to believe this.

" Missiles hitting missiles need to be that accurate, and although the target here was a satellite, the technology's very similar.

They only need to be accurate enough to hit the satellite, not a specific millimeter on a satellite. No one's guidance systems can do that. Stop being absurd.

But hey, keep on posting random YT links, thus far it's the best counterargument you've got.

Counterargument to what? All you do is say "No guys, the Russians are the BEST" in every instance. Regardless of the circumstances. And no matter how stupid it makes you look. And yeah, if you think they purposefully grazed the ISS, that's stupid.

And yes, I know you're going to say "nuh uh! I've disagreed with the Russian government in the past!" But don't bother. Whatever brought you to do that then, it's not like you currently consider your opinions before you form them when it comes to things like this. If you did, you wouldn't be spouting the nonsense you're spouting.

For my part I don't give a shit about Russia one way or the other. It's just clear that they fucked up in this instance. And only an apologist could deny it.

[Shofercia]

Was the ASAT test successful? Yes it was.
Was the ISS hit? No it wasn't.
Are Russian missile tests generally extremely accurate? Yes, they are.
Has the unit conducting the test ever fucked up in a real life test? No idea, but I doubt it.

That's at least three actual facts that were brought up. Claiming that Russia wasn't thinking about debris during a satellite fallout is simply ignorant. As for there's no way to guarantee, that's just like your opinion, and apparently the Russians disagreed, and conducted a successful ASAT test that didn't hit the ISS, because missile tests aren't conducted to put everyone at ease, they're conducted to say "we're so damn confident in our missile systems, that we're willing to ensure accuracy to the millimeter!" Missiles hitting missiles need to be that accurate, and although the target here was a satellite, the technology's very similar.

But hey, keep on posting random YT links, thus far it's the best counterargument you've got.

So the Russians purposely endangered the ISS? is that it?

The Russians placed the ISS at a serious risk of extinction?

Was the ASAT test successful? Yes it was.
Was the ISS hit? No it wasn't.
Are Russian missile tests generally extremely accurate? Yes, they are.

Enough to predict the debris spread to within 40 km at orbital velocities? No. That's a function of pure chance. It would be like predicting where a specific shotgun pellet would go.

Which you can account for with a properly designed computer simulation model; you can predict how a missile can hit a satellite, and account for the debris, provided that you take all of the variables into account.

That's at least three actual facts that were brought up. Claiming that Russia wasn't thinking about debris during a satellite fallout is simply ignorant.

It's the most sensible reading of the facts. If they were thinking about debris, then they purposefully scheduled the test in such a way as to put the ISS at risk.

First you said I have no facts, then when I clearly restated the facts, you moved the goal posts.

As for there's no way to guarantee, that's just like your opinion,

No. That's how orbital mechanics work. Tiny variables result in massive fucking trajectory changes at orbital velocities.

Variables that can be accounted for. ASAT launches are a rare event, meaning that you have years to prepare for one, years to record satellite trajectory of your own satellite, and years to study how it would impact the surrounding area.

and apparently the Russians disagreed, and conducted a successful ASAT test that didn't hit the ISS,

I'm sure they would have disagreed with criticisms of RBMK reactors in 1985 too. But it sure looks like they didn't think about it at all. If they did, then they are profoundly stupid.

Did you just compare grotesque human error at Chernobyl with a missile launch that achieved all of its objectives after complaining about how someone's being profoundly stupid?

because missile tests aren't conducted to put everyone at ease, they're conducted to say "we're so damn confident in our missile systems, that we're willing to ensure accuracy to the millimeter!

That's fucking nonsense. Nobody can predict missile accuracy to that degree, and everyone knows it. This is like firing a shotgun at someone's head, and the spread just so happens not to hit them by pure chance. And then claiming it was your incredible accuracy that caused the pellets to spread that way. You would have to be stupid to believe this.

People said the exact same thing about developing the Iron Dome system that's now what, 87% effective against rockets traveling at a linear trajectory? And that's on extremely short notice, as Palestinians don't usually inform Israelis, years in advance, when the missile strikes would take place. Your response, without knowing all of the variables, is essentially "waaa, it can't be done!"

" Missiles hitting missiles need to be that accurate, and although the target here was a satellite, the technology's very similar.

They only need to be accurate enough to hit the satellite, not a specific millimeter on a satellite. No one's guidance systems can do that. Stop being absurd.

It's harder to hit a missile that's trying to dodge your missile, than it is to hit a satellite, whose trajectory you know. Furthermore, given enough manpower, computing power, unlimited time, knowledge of all of the variables, and an extremely advanced missile, you can run simulations to show at what point you can safely hit the satellite without causing damage to the ISS, which is exactly what happened.

But hey, keep on posting random YT links, thus far it's the best counterargument you've got.

Counterargument to what? All you do is say "No guys, the Russians are the BEST" in every instance. Regardless of the circumstances. And no matter how stupid it makes you look. And yeah, if you think they purposefully grazed the ISS, that's stupid.

And yes, I know you're going to say "nuh uh! I've disagreed with the Russian government in the past!" But don't bother. Whatever brought you to do that then, it's not like you currently consider your opinions before you form them when it comes to things like this. If you did, you wouldn't be spouting the nonsense you're spouting.

For my part I don't give a shit about Russia one way or the other. It's just clear that they fucked up in this instance. And only an apologist could deny it.

So all I do is say that Russians are best in every instance, but I've admitted to disagreeing with Russia in the past, ergo... wait, what?! "These people are the very best, ergo they're wrong, cause they're the very best, also Chernobyl" uhh... yeah that's like totally illogical. Granted, it's not as illogical as going "muh Chernobyl" when discussing missile tests, so I guess it's an improvement, but it still reeks of the "attack the person making the argument" crap, which is, quite frankly, sad.

[The Horror Channel]

It's just Russia being Russia, pretty much to be expected. They might catch up to the rest of the world someday.