Neanderthaland wrote:Shofercia wrote:

You're confusing the odds of the space station being hit with the timing. I'm talking about the odds. Parsecs are distance units, not time units. In order to hit the space station, the debris wouldn't just have to strike at the right second, it would have to strike at the right centi-second or milli-second, which would make the odds of the ISS getting hit the equivalent of the odds of a 99th ranked tennis star winning Wimbledon, which was my point. Yes, things happen very quickly when we're talking about the destructive power of missiles, but if the Iron Dome's missiles missed all of the Palestinian Rockets in any reasonably given time period by a mere second, guess who'd be out of a job? At least one missile commander in Israel. So yes, things happen fast with missiles. Very fast. But the odds of said debris actually hitting the ISS were negligible, which was my point. Was it a dick thing to do? Possibly, and I've already said that.

No sir. That's profoundly stupid and ignorant. Timing is essential to orbital mechanics. And the difference of a milli-second in the launch time of that missile, or a millimeter in the angle in which it struck it's target, could easily have translated into a 40 kilometer shift in orbit of the debris.

40 km at orbital velocities is nothing. It's like an airplane buzzing you by an inch at Mach 2. If the Blue Angles pull that off as part of a performance, you can say it was a carefully calculated maneuver with negligible odds of a disaster. If a random fucking MiG blindsides a passenger plane like that, it's not a carefully calculated maneuver, it's a mistake. And reckless endangerment. Not just a "dick move."

You keep saying the odds are low, but you don't know the odds. You haven't shown your math to prove that they are low. And I'll wager you are incapable of that kind of math.

You've yet to show how the odds weren't low, so you've successfully resorted to personal attacks, i.e. "I'll wager you are incapable of that kind of math" and that's just sad. Also comparing the best pilots in the UK to Russian rookies, is... questionable at best, as is implying that Russian rookies would be in charge of an ASAT launch that occurs once in a... very long time. In fact, any sane country would put their best people, i.e. the equivalent of its Blue Angels, on an ASAT launch, rather than trusting it to the rookies. So if the British Blue Angels do it, that's a carefully calculated maneuver with negligible odds of a disaster but if the Russian equivalent of the British Blue Angels do it, that's a mistake. And reckless endangerment. Not just a "dick move."

Got it! And there's absolutely no "hurr durr Russia bad" commentary here, no sir, just straight up... sorry, couldn't been a straight face as I was typing that.

As far as calculating the odds, I'd say it's somewhere below the odds of Iraq actually having WMDs, Jussie Smollett being an actual victim, Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq becoming democracies as a result of brutal invasions/government overthrows, or Ukraine's healthcare improving as a result of Dr. Death's healthcare reform.

Regarding the actual numbers needed for said calculations, first I'd have to know the capabilities of the ASAT missile, which are, wait for it, classified, so implying that I'm unable to do calculations because I don't have access to classified material required for said calculations, in an attempt to insult me... erm, let's just say that's not very effective. However, if I did have that data, I'd require a computer to actually run all of the possible scenarios, and provide a report with the possibility of scenarios where the ISS gets hit, versus the possibility of scenarios where the ISS doesn't get hit, and then I'd simply subtract and divide. But yes, it's a bit hard to calculate data when the initial numbers are classified.

New haven america wrote:Neanderthaland wrote:No sir. That's profoundly stupid and ignorant. Timing is essential to orbital mechanics. And the difference of a milli-second in the launch time of that missile, or a millimeter in the angle in which it struck it's target, could easily have translated into a 40 kilometer shift in orbit of the debris.

40 km at orbital velocities is nothing. It's like an airplane buzzing you by an inch at Mach 2. If the Blue Angles pull that off as part of a performance, you can say it was a carefully calculated maneuver with negligible odds of a disaster. If a random fucking MiG blindsides a passenger plane like that, it's not a carefully calculated maneuver, it's a mistake. And reckless endangerment. Not just a "dick move."

You keep saying the odds are low, but you don't know the odds. You haven't shown your math to prove that they are low. And I'll wager you are incapable of that kind of math.

But actually doing the math and taking into consideration how differently things work in space would mean that Russia possibly did something bad.

And we can't have that happen now, can we?

Shofercia wrote:...I've criticized Russia several times, including on the First Chechen War and Gay Rights...

That's from my response, to you, but I see you've adopted the Chris Cuomo tactic of ignoring actual facts and chanting the narrative. Have fun with that.