American Politics VIII: Dancin' with Manchin

[New Tryphalia]

my guy losing either house is a game over scenario
What are you going to do when the GOP has a 30 vote majority in the House in 2023 and won't raise the debt ceiling? Might want to start gaming this one out now!

what was needed was an ahistoricity
dance through a 50/50 senate and 3-vote house and pass some meaningful stuff quickly, buck the trend, win the 2022 midterms and then fix the country with those expanded majorities

yeah this was never plausible and none of the characters involved were capable of the kind of legislative armtwisting needed

alternatively, EO your way to the moon and hope that substitutes (it wouldn't)

game over was cunningham and gideon

Why is America so frustrating? Like it should be obvious to buck this trend right now, but no...It'll continue.

God I am legit to the point where I think America's system is legitimately beyond repair and needs a major change one way or the other. And I don't have a clue how that will go. Or if its even possible.

Coughs, failed state, coughs.

Blame the Gipper. He drove the Democrats into the arms of the Third Way, Wall Street, pro-trade, pro-unilateralist foreign policy camp and three neoliberal Democratic and two neocon Republican Presidents later, our planet is dying and the middle class is vanishing alone with the Social Security and Medicare and the industrial base.

[Antipatros]

Another scenario is we lose the House, hold the Senate, and then try to take back the House in '24 if they run Trump again.

That would be kinda ahistorical too, though. Once a President's party loses a chamber in an election, they usually don't get it back until the other party comes into the White House.

The only recentish example I can think of is FDR/Truman in 46 (where they lost the Senate), then Truman in 48 (where they got it back).

You also have the 2002 election, but the Republicans didn't lose the Senate due to an election, they lost it because of Jim Jeffords switching parties.

[Galactic Transylvania]

Another scenario is we lose the House, hold the Senate, and then try to take back the House in '24 if they run Trump again.

That would be kinda ahistorical too, though. Once a President's party loses a chamber in an election, they usually don't get it back until the other party comes into the White House.

The only example I can think of is FDR/Truman in 46 (where they lost the Senate), then Truman in 48 (where they got it back).

You also have the 2002 election, but the Republicans didn't lose the Senate due to an election, they lost it because of Jim Jeffords switching parties.

2002 should be completely disregarded for any kind of predictive purposes because of the fact that 9/11 happened so recently.

[Kowani]

my guy losing either house is a game over scenario
What are you going to do when the GOP has a 30 vote majority in the House in 2023 and won't raise the debt ceiling? Might want to start gaming this one out now!

what was needed was an ahistoricity
dance through a 50/50 senate and 3-vote house and pass some meaningful stuff quickly, buck the trend, win the 2022 midterms and then fix the country with those expanded majorities

yeah this was never plausible and none of the characters involved were capable of the kind of legislative armtwisting needed

alternatively, EO your way to the moon and hope that substitutes

They could try some high stakes debt ceiling chicanery. I think it has a high chance of backfiring on them, though.

not the point (and i'm not sure this holds anyway)

Losing the House is going to be bad, but losing the Senate would be catastrophic. The GOP could very well snag yet another SCOTUS seat if they capture the Senate next year.

...no, biden still has to recommend justices for the senate to "advise and consent" (or not consent) to

my guy losing either house is a game over scenario
What are you going to do when the GOP has a 30 vote majority in the House in 2023 and won't raise the debt ceiling? Might want to start gaming this one out now!

what was needed was an ahistoricity
dance through a 50/50 senate and 3-vote house and pass some meaningful stuff quickly, buck the trend, win the 2022 midterms and then fix the country with those expanded majorities

yeah this was never plausible and none of the characters involved were capable of the kind of legislative armtwisting needed

alternatively, EO your way to the moon and hope that substitutes (it wouldn't)

game over was cunningham and gideon

Why is America so frustrating? Like it should be obvious to buck this trend right now, but no...It'll continue.

God I am legit to the point where I think America's system is legitimately beyond repair and needs a major change one way or the other. And I don't have a clue how that will go. Or if its even possible.

the worst part of being informed is that absent a major break in political trends- a rupture in the republican party (trump forms a third party or dies), a major war (idk, over taiwan?), a political assassination (the only one that could probably make a dent large enough would be biden or harris imo), the train is coming full speed
the question is how it gets here

my guy losing either house is a game over scenario
What are you going to do when the GOP has a 30 vote majority in the House in 2023 and won't raise the debt ceiling? Might want to start gaming this one out now!

what was needed was an ahistoricity
dance through a 50/50 senate and 3-vote house and pass some meaningful stuff quickly, buck the trend, win the 2022 midterms and then fix the country with those expanded majorities

yeah this was never plausible and none of the characters involved were capable of the kind of legislative armtwisting needed

alternatively, EO your way to the moon and hope that substitutes (it wouldn't)

game over was cunningham and gideon

Republicans will get blamed for crashing the global economy.

that's great (and possible untrue) but it doesn't uncrash the economy now does it

also: NOT THE POINT

[Antipatros]

They could try some high stakes debt ceiling chicanery. I think it has a high chance of backfiring on them, though.

not the point (and i'm not sure this holds anyway)

Losing the House is going to be bad, but losing the Senate would be catastrophic. The GOP could very well snag yet another SCOTUS seat if they capture the Senate next year.

...no, biden still has to recommend justices for the senate to "advise and consent" (or not consent) to

Why is America so frustrating? Like it should be obvious to buck this trend right now, but no...It'll continue.

God I am legit to the point where I think America's system is legitimately beyond repair and needs a major change one way or the other. And I don't have a clue how that will go. Or if its even possible.

the worst part of being informed is that absent a major break in political trends- a rupture in the republican party (trump forms a third party or dies), a major war (idk, over taiwan?), a political assassination (the only one that could probably make a dent large enough would be biden or harris imo), the train is coming full speed
the question is how it gets here

Republicans will get blamed for crashing the global economy.

that's great (and possible untrue) but it doesn't uncrash the economy now does it

also: NOT THE POINT

By snag, I mean something like this:

* The GOP wins control of Congress in 22.
* Breyer dies (because of course) after that.
* The GOP refuses to confirm any Biden nominee and runs out the clock until 2024.
* They win in 2024 and then ram in another conservative.

[Senkaku]

I think if we hold the Senate, that can be considered a victory. With all the dynamics we're currently seeing, I really don't see the House staying blue. I will be very surprised if we manage to hang on in the House.

If the GOP takes the House and the Senate, then Biden's basically done. He can try to govern with executive orders, I guess.

my guy losing either house is a game over scenario
What are you going to do when the GOP has a 30 vote majority in the House in 2023 and won't raise the debt ceiling? Might want to start gaming this one out now!

I am going to have one (1) glass of wine and hope mightily that their individual greed (and personal exposure to financial crises) outweighs their collective spite

game over was cunningham and gideon

I could almost let it go if his sexting was actually hot or she’d spent all the leftover money on cool clothes and jewelry

[Kowani]

Another scenario is we lose the House, hold the Senate, and then try to take back the House in '24 if they run Trump again.

That would be kinda ahistorical too, though. Once a President's party loses a chamber in an election, they usually don't get it back until the other party comes into the White House.

The only example I can think of is FDR/Truman in 46 (where they lost the Senate), then Truman in 48 (where they got it back).

You also have the 2002 election, but the Republicans didn't lose the Senate due to an election, they lost it because of Jim Jeffords switching parties.

2002 should be completely disregarded for any kind of predictive purposes because of the fact that 9/11 happened so recently.

would also like to point out that 2002 isn't actually a case of the republicans bucking the trend-it's that the mechanism that powers the midterm curse took forever to kick in because of 9/11
Bush's approval is pretty much thermostatic, it's just propelled by a huge rally around the flag effect from 9/11 that took years to erode. September 10th, 2001 approval: 51%, September 14th approval: 86%. But it doesn't hit 51% again until September 2003.

this is obviously a bit hard to replicate

[Senkaku]

Republicans will get blamed for crashing the global economy.

555-COME-ON-NOW

[Picairn]

By snag, I mean something like this:

* The GOP wins control of Congress in 22.
* Breyer dies (because of course) after that.
* The GOP refuses to confirm any Biden nominee and runs out the clock until 2024.
* They win in 2024 and then ram in another conservative.

Nightmare fuel scenario. But a 2024 victory for Republicans is still uncertain.

[Senkaku]

By snag, I mean something like this:

* The GOP wins control of Congress in 22.
* Breyer dies (because of course) after that.
* The GOP refuses to confirm any Biden nominee and runs out the clock until 2024.
* They win in 2024 and then ram in another conservative.

Nightmare fuel scenario. But a 2024 victory for Republicans is still uncertain.

So either they win outright (easy to see given how Biden’s doing and how his agenda seems to be faring) or they lose and declare victory anyways— and who’s going to stop them this time around?

[Kowani]

not the point (and i'm not sure this holds anyway)

...no, biden still has to recommend justices for the senate to "advise and consent" (or not consent) to


the worst part of being informed is that absent a major break in political trends- a rupture in the republican party (trump forms a third party or dies), a major war (idk, over taiwan?), a political assassination (the only one that could probably make a dent large enough would be biden or harris imo), the train is coming full speed
the question is how it gets here


that's great (and possible untrue) but it doesn't uncrash the economy now does it

also: NOT THE POINT

By snag, I mean something like this:

* The GOP wins control of Congress in 22.
* Breyer dies (because of course) after that.
* The GOP refuses to confirm any Biden nominee and runs out the clock until 2024.
* They win in 2024 and then ram in another conservative.

a 2024 presidential victory is unlikely (rigging aside) just by how presidents work but that is a nightmare scenario

my guy losing either house is a game over scenario
What are you going to do when the GOP has a 30 vote majority in the House in 2023 and won't raise the debt ceiling? Might want to start gaming this one out now!

I am going to have one (1) glass of wine and hope mightily that their individual greed (and personal exposure to financial crises) outweighs their collective spite

yeah that seems appropriate

game over was cunningham and gideon

I could almost let it go if his sexting was actually hot or she’d spent all the leftover money on cool clothes and jewelry

isn't it lovely how we get disappointed on every front

[Senkaku]

I could almost let it go if his sexting was actually hot or she’d spent all the leftover money on cool clothes and jewelry

isn't it lovely how we get disappointed on every front

Like if we’re going to have a bunch of corrupt, ineffectual dunces who do nothing but indulge their vices and laziness before getting shellacked, they could at least actually seem to relish it instead of it seeming just as strained and boring as their campaign attempts… like at least give us the inspiration for a sexy, niche historical miniseries five or six years from now you know

At least Trump seems like he genuinely enjoys his ill-gotten money and seedy affairs

[New Tryphalia]

isn't it lovely how we get disappointed on every front

Like if we’re going to have a bunch of corrupt, ineffectual dunces who do nothing but indulge their vices and laziness before getting shellacked, they could at least actually seem to relish it instead of it seeming just as strained and boring as their campaign attempts… like at least give us the inspiration for a sexy, niche historical miniseries five or six years from now you know

At least Trump seems like he genuinely enjoys his ill-gotten money and seedy affairs

Trump is just no good at hiding his true nature from more than two-fifths of the population at most. Biden is a smug, sanctimonious, corrupt, increasingly senile person, but he is better at charm, comes across as affable and fundamentally decent, hair-sniffing aside. But as he gets older, well, we'll see. Cranky old men aren't a myth, you know. The older we get, the less we care what people think about us.

[Kowani]

isn't it lovely how we get disappointed on every front

Like if we’re going to have a bunch of corrupt, ineffectual dunces who do nothing but indulge their vices and laziness before getting shellacked, they could at least actually seem to relish it instead of it seeming just as strained and boring as their campaign attempts… like at least give us the inspiration for a sexy, niche historical miniseries five or six years from now you know

At least Trump seems like he genuinely enjoys his ill-gotten money and seedy affairs

do you really want a new version of the west wing with our current cast of congressional characters

[Senkaku]

Like if we’re going to have a bunch of corrupt, ineffectual dunces who do nothing but indulge their vices and laziness before getting shellacked, they could at least actually seem to relish it instead of it seeming just as strained and boring as their campaign attempts… like at least give us the inspiration for a sexy, niche historical miniseries five or six years from now you know

At least Trump seems like he genuinely enjoys his ill-gotten money and seedy affairs

do you really want a new version of the west wing with our current cast of congressional characters

I said a niche historical miniseries not a long-running network dramedy

[Dresderstan]

my guy losing either house is a game over scenario
What are you going to do when the GOP has a 30 vote majority in the House in 2023 and won't raise the debt ceiling? Might want to start gaming this one out now!

what was needed was an ahistoricity
dance through a 50/50 senate and 3-vote house and pass some meaningful stuff quickly, buck the trend, win the 2022 midterms and then fix the country with those expanded majorities

yeah this was never plausible and none of the characters involved were capable of the kind of legislative armtwisting needed

alternatively, EO your way to the moon and hope that substitutes (it wouldn't)

game over was cunningham and gideon

Republicans will get blamed for crashing the global economy.

Doubt it, they're not in control of the White House, whoever is in that house will get the blame, and that is Biden and the Democrats.

[Kowani]

Manager's Amendment is out and we got some last-minute changes to BBB before it goes up for a vote tomorrow

Party leaders posted a 10-page manager's amendment late Thursday evening before reconvening the Rules Committee to report out a rule for consideration of the roughly $2 trillion tax and spending bill.
[...]The manager's amendment, among other things, would clarify the scope of the drug pricing program and implement a deal New Jersey Democrats reached late Thursday to raise the $10,000 limit on "SALT" deductions to $80,000 for this year through 2030.

That's up from $72,500 in the base text, which would have been good through 2031; in the updated proposal, the cap shrinks back to $10,000 in the final year. But the net effect over a decade would be to save $14 billion, up from $2 billion in the prior proposal.

The manager's amendment, which would also tack on an extra $500 million for federal information technology upgrades, will be "self-executed," or automatically inserted into the underlying bill upon adoption of the rule for floor debate.

Changes to immigration provisions in the base text won't be included.

[-Astoria-]

What the heck, y'all got 40 pages IN ONE DAY?

You are surprised?

[Eahland]

Republicans will get blamed for crashing the global economy.

Doubt it, they're not in control of the White House, whoever is in that house will get the blame, and that is Biden and the Democrats.

The Democrats will get the blame regardless, because "everyone knows" the Republicans are the "fiscally responsible" ones that keep the "tax and spend" Democrats in check.

[Rusozak]

What the heck, y'all got 40 pages IN ONE DAY?

During the presidential election we filled 500 pages in 2 days, so pretty tame.

[The Jamesian Republic]

What the heck, y'all got 40 pages IN ONE DAY?

During the presidential election we filled 500 pages in 2 days, so pretty tame.

Really?

[Kerwa]

What are you going to do when the GOP has a 30 vote majority in the House in 2023 and won't raise the debt ceiling? Might want to start gaming this one out now

You don’t have to because it won’t happen.

I miss the Cold War. At least back then the end of the world scenarios were plausible.

[The Jamesian Republic]

What are you going to do when the GOP has a 30 vote majority in the House in 2023 and won't raise the debt ceiling? Might want to start gaming this one out now

You don’t have to because it won’t happen.

I miss the Cold War. At least back then the end of the world scenarios were plausible.

It is still possible.

Always has been

[Kerwa]

You don’t have to because it won’t happen.

I miss the Cold War. At least back then the end of the world scenarios were plausible.

It is still possible.

Always has been

Only technically. It just isn’t any more realistic than Bill Clinton launching a surprise nuclear attack during the 90s.

It’s all a dog and pony show. Besides which if the Republicans control the house they have no reason to do that.

[Ifreann]

What are you going to do when the GOP has a 30 vote majority in the House in 2023 and won't raise the debt ceiling? Might want to start gaming this one out now

You don’t have to because it won’t happen.

I miss the Cold War. At least back then the end of the world scenarios were plausible.

What's to miss? The world's still ending, just slowly.