American Politics VIII: Dancin' with Manchin

[Antipatros]

Can’t wait for people to blame the most predictable thing in American politics on their personal pet issues (again)

midterms are midterms are midterms

Well, there are always mitigating or aggravating factors, but on this point I agree with you. When was the last time that the White House party won a mid-term? 2002? 1998? It's been a while.

The midterm in the first term is usually pretty bad. The GOP won in the 2002 midterms, but that's unusual.

The Democrats picked up a few seats in the 1998 midterms as well.

EDIT: Checking now, the last time before 1998 was 1934, I think.

[Corrian]

Well there's a few anti-vaxxers at work who will probably straight up quit. We're understaffed as is so that'll be fun. There's no way they'll even do the most basic of good things like at least being tested.

oh yeah well i meant yelling at their boss and then quitting or maybe yelling at their boss as they quit or if theyre feeling subversive yelling after they quit

Which is gonna be fun since its not the bosses fault anyway.

[Eahland]

I'm dreading the midterm election. Wonder how many pages we'll crank through then.

Can’t wait for people to blame the most predictable thing in American politics on their personal pet issues (again)

midterms are midterms are midterms

I just get annoyed by the idea that we're automatically going to lose the midterms and there's nothing that can be done about it because they're the midterms. It's a self-fulfilling defeatist prophecy that only serves as an excuse to not try to do anything.

Of course, blaming it on the people who are trying to get Biden's agenda passed blocking Biden's agenda by not compromising enough with the people who are trying to kill Biden's agenda is its own special kind of ridiculous.

[Corrian]

Well, there are always mitigating or aggravating factors, but on this point I agree with you. When was the last time that the White House party won a mid-term? 2002? 1998? It's been a while.

The midterm in the first term is usually pretty bad. The GOP won in the 2002 midterms, but that's unusual.

The Democrats picked up a few seats in the 1998 midterms as well.

I wish this was a trend that would change to be honest. Like we don't necessarily need the same party to ALWAYS win, that's not great either, but the constant flip flopping is FRUSTRATING. Its just like a repetitive cycle.

[New Tryphalia]

The midterm in the first term is usually pretty bad. The GOP won in the 2002 midterms, but that's unusual.

The Democrats picked up a few seats in the 1998 midterms as well.

I wish this was a trend that would change to be honest. Like we don't necessarily need the same party to ALWAYS win, that's not great either, but the constant flip flopping is FRUSTRATING. Its just like a repetitive cycle.

There's a system called Westminster. It's flawed, like all forms of democracy, but at some point, a variation of it might not be so bad.

[Galactic Transylvania]

I thought the 4chan faux-intellectual posts were for "NS Summer."

[San Lumen]

The midterm in the first term is usually pretty bad. The GOP won in the 2002 midterms, but that's unusual.

The Democrats picked up a few seats in the 1998 midterms as well.

I wish this was a trend that would change to be honest. Like we don't necessarily need the same party to ALWAYS win, that's not great either, but the constant flip flopping is FRUSTRATING. Its just like a repetitive cycle.

So do I.

Not to mention its unsustainable. Its like in Mexico where until recently everyone was limited to one term.

[Kowani]

Can’t wait for people to blame the most predictable thing in American politics on their personal pet issues (again)

midterms are midterms are midterms

Well, there are always mitigating or aggravating factors, but on this point I agree with you. When was the last time that the White House party won a mid-term? 2002? 1998? It's been a while.

In the 6th party system, the President’s party has won the house midterms (senate is different because of the class system) in 2002
Before that, 1934

Can’t wait for people to blame the most predictable thing in American politics on their personal pet issues (again)

midterms are midterms are midterms

I just get annoyed by the idea that we're automatically going to lose the midterms and there's nothing that can be done about it because they're the midterms. It's a self-fulfilling defeatist prophecy that only serves as an excuse to not try to do anything.

Of course, blaming it on the people who are trying to get Biden's agenda passed blocking Biden's agenda by not compromising enough with the people who are trying to kill Biden's agenda is its own special kind of ridiculous.

If you have a mechanism for how to evade the largest trend in American politics (which drove last night) I would love to hear it
It doesn’t even work as a self defeating excuse-you are going to lose the midterms no matter what you do, so legislating defensively is pointless

I thought the 4chan faux-intellectual posts were for "NS Summer."

I thought the 4chan faux-intellectual posts were for "NS Summer."

No, that’s the Nazi posts

[Antipatros]

I think if we hold the Senate, that can be considered a victory. With all the dynamics we're currently seeing, I really don't see the House staying blue. I will be very surprised if we manage to hang on in the House.

If the GOP takes the House and the Senate, then Biden's basically done. He can try to govern with executive orders, I guess.

[San Lumen]

I think if we hold the Senate, that can be considered a victory. With all the dynamics we're currently seeing, I really don't see the House staying blue. I will be very surprised if we manage to hang on in the House.

If the GOP takes the House and the Senate, then Biden's basically done. He can try to govern with executive orders, I guess.

A lot can change in a year. We have to at least hold the Senate. Its possible we could. Look at what happened in 2018.

[Galactic Transylvania]

No, that’s the Nazi posts

I mean, yeah, 4chan

[Antipatros]

I think if we hold the Senate, that can be considered a victory. With all the dynamics we're currently seeing, I really don't see the House staying blue. I will be very surprised if we manage to hang on in the House.

If the GOP takes the House and the Senate, then Biden's basically done. He can try to govern with executive orders, I guess.

A lot can change in a year. We have to at least hold the Senate. Its possible we could. Look at what happened in 2018.

It's possible.

Betting markets are leaning against it, but it's really too soon to tell.

[New Tryphalia]

I think if we hold the Senate, that can be considered a victory. With all the dynamics we're currently seeing, I really don't see the House staying blue. I will be very surprised if we manage to hang on in the House.

If the GOP takes the House and the Senate, then Biden's basically done. He can try to govern with executive orders, I guess.

He might be more effective if he got started on some executive orders sooner rather than later. Why wait for the GOP to provide him an excuse? It's not as if they won't paint him as a dictator, whatever his reasons or their provocations. It's laughable, of course. Every President in my lifetime has abused executive orders to the skies and we now have one who is too timid to do much in the way of them at all. Or is too dependent upon the goodwill of his former Senate colleagues.

[San Lumen]

A lot can change in a year. We have to at least hold the Senate. Its possible we could. Look at what happened in 2018.

It's possible.

Betting markets are leaning against it, but it's really too soon to tell.

a year is a lifetime in politics.

[Immortan Khan]

I thought the 4chan faux-intellectual posts were for "NS Summer."

NS Summer hasn't been a thing in ages. What was once NS Summer is now just...NSG.

[Galactic Transylvania]

I thought the 4chan faux-intellectual posts were for "NS Summer."

NS Summer hasn't been a thing in ages. What was once NS Summer is now just...NSG.

Pouring one out for what was lost.

[New Tryphalia]

It's possible.

Betting markets are leaning against it, but it's really too soon to tell.

a year is a lifetime in politics.

One of the five most undeniable truths of politics. In early 2020, pre-COVID, Moody's predicted that Trump would essentially sail to re-election. A year later, he's a disgraced former President dodging criminal prosecution and civil litigation and being blamed by half of the country for both COVID and the January 6 treason.

[Kowani]

I think if we hold the Senate, that can be considered a victory. With all the dynamics we're currently seeing, I really don't see the House staying blue. I will be very surprised if we manage to hang on in the House.

If the GOP takes the House and the Senate, then Biden's basically done. He can try to govern with executive orders, I guess.

my guy losing either house is a game over scenario
What are you going to do when the GOP has a 30 vote majority in the House in 2023 and won't raise the debt ceiling? Might want to start gaming this one out now!

what was needed was an ahistoricity
dance through a 50/50 senate and 3-vote house and pass some meaningful stuff quickly, buck the trend, win the 2022 midterms and then fix the country with those expanded majorities

yeah this was never plausible and none of the characters involved were capable of the kind of legislative armtwisting needed

alternatively, EO your way to the moon and hope that substitutes (it wouldn't)

game over was cunningham and gideon

[Antipatros]

I think if we hold the Senate, that can be considered a victory. With all the dynamics we're currently seeing, I really don't see the House staying blue. I will be very surprised if we manage to hang on in the House.

If the GOP takes the House and the Senate, then Biden's basically done. He can try to govern with executive orders, I guess.

He might be more effective if he got started on some executive orders sooner rather than later. Why wait for the GOP to provide him an excuse? It's not as if they won't paint him as a dictator, whatever his reasons or their provocations. It's laughable, of course. Every President in my lifetime has abused executive orders to the skies and we now have one who is too timid to do much in the way of them at all. Or is too dependent upon the goodwill of his former Senate colleagues.

The problem with this is that once the other party comes into the White House, many of your policies get immediately rolled back (not withstanding court battles). Getting legislation passed can be hard, but it's a more sustainable way of advancing your policies in the long run.

[Antipatros]

I think if we hold the Senate, that can be considered a victory. With all the dynamics we're currently seeing, I really don't see the House staying blue. I will be very surprised if we manage to hang on in the House.

If the GOP takes the House and the Senate, then Biden's basically done. He can try to govern with executive orders, I guess.

my guy losing either house is a game over scenario
What are you going to do when the GOP has a 30 vote majority in the House in 2023 and won't raise the debt ceiling? Might want to start gaming this one out now!

what was needed was an ahistoricity
dance through a 50/50 senate and 3-vote house and pass some meaningful stuff quickly, buck the trend, win the 2022 midterms and then fix the country with those expanded majorities

yeah this was never plausible and none of the characters involved were capable of the kind of legislative armtwisting needed

alternatively, EO your way to the moon and hope that substitutes

They could try some high stakes debt ceiling chicanery. I think it has a high chance of backfiring on them, though.

Losing the House is going to be bad, but losing the Senate would be catastrophic. The GOP could very well snag yet another SCOTUS seat if they capture the Senate next year.

[Diahon]

which is why, again, the gop must be removed from power

all elected and appointed

[Corrian]

I think if we hold the Senate, that can be considered a victory. With all the dynamics we're currently seeing, I really don't see the House staying blue. I will be very surprised if we manage to hang on in the House.

If the GOP takes the House and the Senate, then Biden's basically done. He can try to govern with executive orders, I guess.

my guy losing either house is a game over scenario
What are you going to do when the GOP has a 30 vote majority in the House in 2023 and won't raise the debt ceiling? Might want to start gaming this one out now!

what was needed was an ahistoricity
dance through a 50/50 senate and 3-vote house and pass some meaningful stuff quickly, buck the trend, win the 2022 midterms and then fix the country with those expanded majorities

yeah this was never plausible and none of the characters involved were capable of the kind of legislative armtwisting needed

alternatively, EO your way to the moon and hope that substitutes (it wouldn't)

game over was cunningham and gideon

Why is America so frustrating? Like it should be obvious to buck this trend right now, but no...It'll continue.

God I am legit to the point where I think America's system is legitimately beyond repair and needs a major change one way or the other. And I don't have a clue how that will go. Or if its even possible.

[San Lumen]

I think if we hold the Senate, that can be considered a victory. With all the dynamics we're currently seeing, I really don't see the House staying blue. I will be very surprised if we manage to hang on in the House.

If the GOP takes the House and the Senate, then Biden's basically done. He can try to govern with executive orders, I guess.

my guy losing either house is a game over scenario
What are you going to do when the GOP has a 30 vote majority in the House in 2023 and won't raise the debt ceiling? Might want to start gaming this one out now!

what was needed was an ahistoricity
dance through a 50/50 senate and 3-vote house and pass some meaningful stuff quickly, buck the trend, win the 2022 midterms and then fix the country with those expanded majorities

yeah this was never plausible and none of the characters involved were capable of the kind of legislative armtwisting needed

alternatively, EO your way to the moon and hope that substitutes (it wouldn't)

game over was cunningham and gideon

Republicans will get blamed for crashing the global economy.

[San Lumen]

which is why, again, the gop must be removed from power

all elected and appointed

How do you propose to achieve this?

[New Tryphalia]

which is why, again, the gop must be removed from power

all elected and appointed

I'm open to scenarios that would prevent this. The Democrats are no prize and I admit that I'm not a fan of some of their gun control and some other weird ideas (such as the college kangaroo courts that existed under Obama) or their complete sellout on key economic points to Manchin and Co. But the Republicans still seem bound and determined to DO NOTHING while our planet literally burns and dries out and to do nothing to help the poor and working class at all. Not to mention that they are utterly committed to the Trump personality cult (or have been in the past, though Youngkin seems to point to a way out of that) and they are still hell-bent on abstinence-only sex education and other nonsensical notions.