1913 - Spain and Italy vs France

[Risottia]

Please consider the following hypothetical (inspired by a game of modded Axis and Allies):

Let's say it's 1914, Spain and Italy were to form an alliance and coordinate an invasion of France. France is aware that this is coming. Could they win?

No.

Strategy.
Land: to strike at the French industrial power, Italy would have to attack through the Maritime, Cottian and Graian Alps and work their way from there through the Alpine valley system and the Massif Central; Spain would have to cross the Pyrenees and work their way through the Ouest. The topography plays heavily in favour of the defending side. In the meanwhile, an eventual successful attack by France through the same areas would place the industrial heartland of Italy (Piedmont and Lombardy) within immediate reach, same with Spain (Catalunya and Euskadi).
Sea: Italian shipping lines through and from its colonies would have to pass through areas that can be contested by France (Western Mediterranean: French North Africa and Corsica; Red Sea: Djibouti). Spanish shipping lines are a bit safer, but the French Atlantic fleets can still cover the Eastern Atlantic from both the Biscay Gulf and from the French West Africa.

Tactics.
Land: the Italian Army is a bit better trained in mountain warfare than their French counterpart given the history of the Italian Wars of Independence, but it is sorely lacking in field artillery and machine guns. As for numbers of troops, there's absolutely no match, as France can also employ troops from a far larger colonial empire than the Italian one. As for the Spanish Army, it's incredibly weak except for the bits deployed in its colonies.
Sea: the Spanish Navy is basically inexistent. The Italian Navy cannot beat the French Navy in the Mediterranean in an open battle, so it can only act as a threat while conducting incursions with small crafts (submarines and torpedo boats) against Toulon and Marseille.

Logistics: the Italian and Spanish rail lines are less developed than the French ones. Italy would have to rely on the imports from Germany and Austria-Hungary through the Simplon, Brenner and Semmering lines. As for Spain, they'd be left with what they can import via maritime shipping. Moving troops and supplies would be more difficult for Italy and Spain than for France. The French industrial and food output exceeds the COMBINED Italian and Spanish output, and France would have free access via rail and via sea to the rest of Europe.

[Heloin]

It is.


The French have nothing to worry about from Spain so unlikely.


Not when fighting the French and British without Austro-Hungarian help.


A very video gamey way of thinking about war…


The only miscalculation possible is Germany committing suicide by fighting France, Russia, and the United Kingdom on it’s own.

This whole goal post shift suffers two massive problems. One, you’re imagining France in 1939 not in 1913. This France remembers the humiliation of the Franco-Prussian War and is more then capable of fighting and crushing the Germans assuming they’re only fighting each other.

Two, you’re imagining the Russia of 1916. A Russia sick of a war that has ground to a halt with no end in sight and on the verge of revolution again. That is not the situation in 1913. Russia has serious problems and while it’s invasion of Prussia in 1914 would ultimately prove a failure you’re still ignoring the shear weight of Russia. There were nearly six million casualties on the Eastern Front in WW1, of them two thirds were Austro-Hungarian. Germany fighting a two front war without Austria-Hungary would never be able to hold out as long as it’s real world counterpart.

Let that sink in, Austria-Hungary isn’t totally useless after all.

Russia in 1914 did very poorly against only a fraction of Germany.

Literally didn’t read what I wrote.

And if Russia enters the war against Germany, Austria would help Germany because if it doesn’t, Russia could get pieces of land in Silesia if it wins and further wrap around Austria (weakening its ambitions in the Balkans).

No they wouldn’t. They’d have no obligation to join with the Germans and more importantly the UK and France are also in the war. Austria-Hungary knows it doesn’t have the ability to fight against the world and as a consolation to leaving the ally they like out for the wolves they’d likely be happy to see the Italians crushed by the French.

[Infected Mushroom]

Russia in 1914 did very poorly against only a fraction of Germany.

Literally didn’t read what I wrote.

And if Russia enters the war against Germany, Austria would help Germany because if it doesn’t, Russia could get pieces of land in Silesia if it wins and further wrap around Austria (weakening its ambitions in the Balkans).

No they wouldn’t. They’d have no obligation to join with the Germans and more importantly the UK and France are also in the war. Austria-Hungary knows it doesn’t have the ability to fight against the world and as a consolation to leaving the ally they like out for the wolves they’d likely be happy to see the Italians crushed by the French.

Thank you for offering a great deal of analysis to the thread. This is the type of critical thinking and discussions that the thread is intended to promote.