1913 - Spain and Italy vs France

[Infected Mushroom]

The strongest Army in the world and a navy that vastly outmatches anything Italy or Spain could hope to achieve. Spain had been crushed a decade prior and had little of their overseas empire left, Italy has faced a humiliating defeat in Ethiopia at around the same time. There is no scenario that you can look at this that doesn’t end in French victory.

What about the two front factor?

It's not enough to swing it? Or make it close?

[Heloin]

The strongest Army in the world and a navy that vastly outmatches anything Italy or Spain could hope to achieve. Spain had been crushed a decade prior and had little of their overseas empire left, Italy has faced a humiliating defeat in Ethiopia at around the same time. There is no scenario that you can look at this that doesn’t end in French victory.

What about the two front factor?

It's not enough to swing it? Or make it close?

Not even slightly.

[Antipatros]

And would Spain be able to hold on these mountains? If they played it smart?

No.

I believe that, while America won the war, they found that the weaponry which had served them well in slaughtering the natives was not up to the task of fighting a modern European military.

The American Army in 1898 is a small defense force meant to be supplemented by the national guard, which was mostly a joke at the time. And the Americans never really had a chance of losing to Spain. The Americans had worse guns, awful logistic networks, comically inept commanders, and aside from the gun situation Spain had that but somehow worse.

The only thing I'm unsure about is how hard it would be to push through the Basque region (which is historically the typical route for large armies moving from France into Spain: examples include Napoleon in 1808, the French intervention in 1823, and German plans for an invasion through Spain in WW2).

King Charlemagne's armored knights got messed up pretty badly in the Battle of Roncevaux Pass by some lightly equipped Basque tribesmen. You could see something like that if the French don't advance carefully.

[Punished UMN]

Even not considering France's terrain advantage, its military was far superior.

[Unstoppable Empire of Doom]

Scenario 1: France rolls over Spain with their army while annihilating the numerically inferior Italian navy. Then they sue for peace.

Scenario 2: the Spanish colonies are completely indefensible due to the loss of their navy years prior. The rest plays out just as in scenario 1.

Scenario 3/4: Unknown. Alliances are fickle things. If Britain jumps in would Germany see a requirement to mobilize? I cant see Russia or Turkey joining and I doubt Austria would jump in. Portugal might get dragged in with the British. WW1 but scaled down and lopsided?

[Unstoppable Empire of Doom]

The strongest Army in the world and a navy that vastly outmatches anything Italy or Spain could hope to achieve. Spain had been crushed a decade prior and had little of their overseas empire left, Italy has faced a humiliating defeat in Ethiopia at around the same time. There is no scenario that you can look at this that doesn’t end in French victory.

What about the two front factor?

It's not enough to swing it? Or make it close?

Not even close. France has the advantage in navy, logistics, artillery, experience, training, industry, cavalry, resources, stability, morale, intel, communication, machineguns, mortars, planes, and everything else under the sun. I give Italy a chance to keep france out of the mountains but Iberia would fold like an accordian. With the Italian navy (a surprisingly modern force iirc) sent to the bottem or forced into a fleet in being doctrine.

[Ifreann]

I believe that, while America won the war, they found that the weaponry which had served them well in slaughtering the natives was not up to the task of fighting a modern European military.

Yeah I heard the Spanish had good rifles.

Better than what the US was using in 1898. But that alone doesn't beat France.

[Infected Mushroom]

Yeah I heard the Spanish had good rifles.

Better than what the US was using in 1898. But that alone doesn't beat France.

What about German support? Would it make a difference?

[Ifreann]

Better than what the US was using in 1898. But that alone doesn't beat France.

What about German support? Would it make a difference?

Obviously not, Germany lost WW1.

[Infected Mushroom]

What about German support? Would it make a difference?

Obviously not, Germany lost WW1.

Germany would create a third front.

[Heloin]

No.


The American Army in 1898 is a small defense force meant to be supplemented by the national guard, which was mostly a joke at the time. And the Americans never really had a chance of losing to Spain. The Americans had worse guns, awful logistic networks, comically inept commanders, and aside from the gun situation Spain had that but somehow worse.

The only thing I'm unsure about is how hard it would be to push through the Basque region (which is historically the typical route for large armies moving from France into Spain: examples include Napoleon in 1808, the French intervention in 1823, and German plans for an invasion through Spain in WW2).

King Charlemagne's armored knights got messed up pretty badly in the Battle of Roncevaux Pass by some lightly equipped Basque tribesmen. You could see something like that if the French don't advance carefully.

Yeah no, Spain had no chance. That and the French invasion in 1823 was a complete French success.

[Punished UMN]

What about German support? Would it make a difference?

Obviously not, Germany lost WW1.

I mean Germany would 1v1 France without British involvement, but IM is shifting the goalposts.

[Heloin]

Obviously not, Germany lost WW1.

Germany would create a third front.

Then the UK and Russian would get involved.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

Does it go both ways though? Can they bait France into attacking and losing soldiers on two fronts; make France attack at the mountains?

I could see France attempting to make breakthroughs in Navarre in order to knock Spain out of the war, while they take a defensive posture on the Italian border.

Yeah… I’m not sure such an incursion would benefit or could be pulled off by Spain at all. Let alone Italy. And if you consider the fact that Navarre and Aragon have their own bones to pick with Madrid and with France… chaos. France could very well beat Spain.

[Infected Mushroom]

Obviously not, Germany lost WW1.

I mean Germany would 1v1 France without British involvement, but IM is shifting the goalposts.

It ties into rounds 3 and 4 of the hypothetical. The system of alliances was fragile and Germany doesn't necessarily want a stronger France imposing terms against Italy and Spain and getting larger.

[Infected Mushroom]

Germany would create a third front.

Then the UK and Russian would get involved.

Germany nearly won with France fighting on 1 front only. France may have to deal with three fronts. It may be too much. I'm not sure though.

[Neanderthaland]

I don't think Italy's ability to spectacularly fuck up invasions should be underestimated.

These are the people who, in WWI, lost a battle to an abandoned Austro-Hungarian fort.

[Vikanias]

The Pyrenees and Alps can definitely help France in defending. I’d say France would win in all scenarios to a varying degree. With 2 and 4 being more of a Pyrrhic victory for France.

[Heloin]

Then the UK and Russian would get involved.

Germany nearly won with France fighting on 1 front only. France may have to deal with three fronts. It may be too much. I'm not sure though.

Let's be honest here, France is fighting a one front war against Germany. A German intervention would draw Russia into the war and since the main plan the Germans have for fighting France is the Schlieffen Plan they will draw the British in as well. The Western Front would likely be not too dissimilar to that of 1914 but the Russians who wouldn't have to face the Austrian-Hungarian and German forces would create a much more imposing threat on Germany's Eastern Front. Germany wouldn't be stupid enough to get into this fight, Spain would cave near instantly, and Italy would be crushed after some actually brutal fighting in the Alps.

I don't think Italy's ability to spectacularly fuck up invasions should be underestimated.

These are the people who, in WWI, lost a battle to an abandoned Austro-Hungarian fort.

Who's ready for Twelve Battles of the Isonzo?

[Infected Mushroom]

Germany nearly won with France fighting on 1 front only. France may have to deal with three fronts. It may be too much. I'm not sure though.

Let's be honest here, France is fighting a one front war against Germany. A German intervention would draw Russia into the war and since the main plan the Germans have for fighting France is the Schlieffen Plan they will draw the British in as well. The Western Front would likely be not too dissimilar to that of 1914 but the Russians who wouldn't have to face the Austrian-Hungarian and German forces would create a much more imposing threat on Germany's Eastern Front. Germany wouldn't be stupid enough to get into this fight, Spain would cave near instantly, and Italy would be crushed after some actually brutal fighting in the Alps.

I don't think Italy's ability to spectacularly fuck up invasions should be underestimated.

These are the people who, in WWI, lost a battle to an abandoned Austro-Hungarian fort.

Who's ready for Twelve Battles of the Isonzo?

There’s a chance in a 3 front war that France could mess up on resource/troop allocation for the three fronts.

WWI was a new type of war and in hindsight even Germany sent the wrong numbers of troops west vs east. With a little bit of chaos and luck, it’s not unforeseeable that the Allies could mess up.

I don’t think France has ever had to fight on 3 fronts on the continent at once.

[Heloin]

Let's be honest here, France is fighting a one front war against Germany. A German intervention would draw Russia into the war and since the main plan the Germans have for fighting France is the Schlieffen Plan they will draw the British in as well. The Western Front would likely be not too dissimilar to that of 1914 but the Russians who wouldn't have to face the Austrian-Hungarian and German forces would create a much more imposing threat on Germany's Eastern Front. Germany wouldn't be stupid enough to get into this fight, Spain would cave near instantly, and Italy would be crushed after some actually brutal fighting in the Alps.


Who's ready for Twelve Battles of the Isonzo?

There’s a chance in a 3 front war that France could mess up on resource/troop allocation for the three fronts.

WWI was a new type of war and in hindsight even Germany sent the wrong numbers of troops west vs east. With a little bit of chaos and luck, it’s not unforeseeable that the Allies could mess up.

I don’t think France has ever had to fight on 3 fronts on the continent at once.

You can say all you want, Spain and Italy lose in every scenario. If Germany gets involved then France has to fight in Flanders as well but then Germany will have to face an actual Russian invasion.

[Infected Mushroom]

There’s a chance in a 3 front war that France could mess up on resource/troop allocation for the three fronts.

WWI was a new type of war and in hindsight even Germany sent the wrong numbers of troops west vs east. With a little bit of chaos and luck, it’s not unforeseeable that the Allies could mess up.

I don’t think France has ever had to fight on 3 fronts on the continent at once.

You can say all you want, Spain and Italy lose in every scenario. If Germany gets involved then France has to fight in Flanders as well but then Germany will have to face an actual Russian invasion.

I’m not sure it’s so clear cut. The two additional fronts to France and France’s response to it could mean Germany breaks out further west and gets their knockout. IRL Germany actually could have repelled Russia with less but Russia looked too threatening on paper and with the numbers.

But it’s hard to say. Could go the other way too. Maybe Germany goes “Yeah we got this. It’s 3 v 1 in the west, we’ll do 50-50 on both fronts now and screw up when they realize too late that France makes good use of machine guns.”

It’s all about who miscalculates.

[Infected Mushroom]

What about Portugal? Would they enter on the British side? Fight Spain?

[Heloin]

You can say all you want, Spain and Italy lose in every scenario. If Germany gets involved then France has to fight in Flanders as well but then Germany will have to face an actual Russian invasion.

I’m not sure it’s so clear cut.

It is.

The two additional fronts to France and France’s response to it could mean Germany breaks out further west and gets their knockout.

The French have nothing to worry about from Spain so unlikely.

IRL Germany actually could have repelled Russia with less but Russia looked too threatening on paper and with the numbers.

Not when fighting the French and British without Austro-Hungarian help.

But it’s hard to say. Could go the other way too. Maybe Germany goes “Yeah we got this. It’s 3 v 1 in the west, we’ll do 50-50 on both fronts now and screw up when they realize too late that France makes good use of machine guns.”

A very video gamey way of thinking about war…

It’s all about who miscalculates.

The only miscalculation possible is Germany committing suicide by fighting France, Russia, and the United Kingdom on it’s own.

This whole goal post shift suffers two massive problems. One, you’re imagining France in 1939 not in 1913. This France remembers the humiliation of the Franco-Prussian War and is more then capable of fighting and crushing the Germans assuming they’re only fighting each other.

Two, you’re imagining the Russia of 1916. A Russia sick of a war that has ground to a halt with no end in sight and on the verge of revolution again. That is not the situation in 1913. Russia has serious problems and while it’s invasion of Prussia in 1914 would ultimately prove a failure you’re still ignoring the shear weight of Russia. There were nearly six million casualties on the Eastern Front in WW1, of them two thirds were Austro-Hungarian. Germany fighting a two front war without Austria-Hungary would never be able to hold out as long as it’s real world counterpart.

Let that sink in, Austria-Hungary isn’t totally useless after all.

[Infected Mushroom]

I’m not sure it’s so clear cut.

It is.

The two additional fronts to France and France’s response to it could mean Germany breaks out further west and gets their knockout.

The French have nothing to worry about from Spain so unlikely.

IRL Germany actually could have repelled Russia with less but Russia looked too threatening on paper and with the numbers.

Not when fighting the French and British without Austro-Hungarian help.

But it’s hard to say. Could go the other way too. Maybe Germany goes “Yeah we got this. It’s 3 v 1 in the west, we’ll do 50-50 on both fronts now and screw up when they realize too late that France makes good use of machine guns.”

A very video gamey way of thinking about war…

It’s all about who miscalculates.

The only miscalculation possible is Germany committing suicide by fighting France, Russia, and the United Kingdom on it’s own.

This whole goal post shift suffers two massive problems. One, you’re imagining France in 1939 not in 1913. This France remembers the humiliation of the Franco-Prussian War and is more then capable of fighting and crushing the Germans assuming they’re only fighting each other.

Two, you’re imagining the Russia of 1916. A Russia sick of a war that has ground to a halt with no end in sight and on the verge of revolution again. That is not the situation in 1913. Russia has serious problems and while it’s invasion of Prussia in 1914 would ultimately prove a failure you’re still ignoring the shear weight of Russia. There were nearly six million casualties on the Eastern Front in WW1, of them two thirds were Austro-Hungarian. Germany fighting a two front war without Austria-Hungary would never be able to hold out as long as it’s real world counterpart.

Let that sink in, Austria-Hungary isn’t totally useless after all.

Russia in 1914 did very poorly against only a fraction of Germany. And if Russia enters the war against Germany, Austria would help Germany because if it doesn’t, Russia could get pieces of land in Silesia if it wins and further wrap around Austria (weakening its ambitions in the Balkans).