Chrobalta wrote:Clearly China. They are rapidly industrializing and becoming a major player in the world economy. They will overtake the US in size of GDP sometime in the next two decades. Their military power is expanding, they are developing a blue water navy capable of global power projection.
China has three things going against it. One is that China has always been a regionally focused power. The other is that China is poised for major demographic and cultural shifts with a rapidly aging population. The third is that China's economy is very heavily tied to the US (and to a certain degree driven by exports), and the US foundering may do significantly funny things to its growth rates.
In 2030 we will, I expect, not have any particular global superpower if the US proves to be in decline in political influence. The way the board lies now, there will be three major powers - the EU, US, and China - the EU growing in power not merely through internal growth, but through progressive growth. By the time that China's GDP is anticipated to catch up the the US's, the EU is expected to have added Turkey and the former Yugoslav republics, and may well even have extended to the Ukraine, and China's population will hit a hard peak.
Russia is the major unknown - not poised to become a superpower again, but could easily push the balance in any particular direction. India is expected to be a clear rising star at that point as well. Quite a few unknown elements could change between now and then.
