Kowani wrote:Zurkerx wrote:[ Kow I believe has a huge post somewhere regarding everything here but the facts are clear: the GOP are a monstrous threat and as long as Democrats continually fight each other and view their counterparts as "political opposition" rather than enemies of Democracy, which the GOP calls Democrats, they will succeed in their goals. After all: The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good people to do nothing.
I want to revamp and explain more things later on, but here-specifically about "polarization" and media framing
And round 2 (Special thanks to Zukerx for his help gathering sources)
Before, I focused on the theoretical side of how Republicans threaten democracy. This time, I wanted to look a bit more at the concrete actions taken in order to form a clear picture. So let's take a look at the most Republican state in the Union. No, not Texas or West Virginia or Florida. We're going to look at Wisconsin. Now, a rational observer might point out that with the exception of the non-partisan offices,
a formality in name only, the partisanship of the non-partisan state Supreme Court races is very real) there is
only one statewide elected office in Wisconsin held by a republican (Sen. Ron Johnson). So what could I mean by "most Republican State?" Well, let's look at the legislature.
And this all looks very good. The Republicans won statewide majorities in both houses in 2020, so they should get a majority of both houses. But it's not so simple. This is
wildly disproportionate-the Assembly WIGOP only won 54% of the vote, but they got 61% of the seats. The same goes in the Senate, where they got 53% of the vote...and 63% of the seats.
But the real important election is 2018 in the State Assembly, where the WIGOP won 45% of the vote...and 64% of the seats. Now this is an
insane undemocratic state of affairs. In an election where the party lost 7 percentage points in the popular vote, becoming the minority, they lost...one seat in the legislature and kept the majority.
But it gets worse. The current Governor of Wisconsin is a Democrat, having defeated the previous Republican Governor, Scott Walker. The immediate response of the Republicans in the legislature was to
strip the office (and that of the Attorney General, which also went to a Dem) of several of its powers to try and insulate themselves from the inconvenience of democracy. But it wasn't just Wisconsin Republicans who did this.
Michigan Republicans did it in response to the victory of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer,
North Carolina Republicans did it to Gov. Roy Cooper,
Kentucky Republicans did it to Gov. Andy Beshear. (
Attempts to do the same to Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly failed in committee).
And speaking of inconveniences of democracy, just this year,
Arizona Republicans shifted exclusive control over election lawsuits from Secretary of Katie Hobbs (D) to the Republican attorney general Mark Brnovich- but only through Jan. 2, 2023 — when the winners of the next elections for both offices would be about to take power, as well as when Hobbs' term expires-a very good way to ensure that the authority given to the Attorney General doesn't transfer to a hypothetical Democrat who wins the next race for attorney general.
This is the early, elite version of what happened on January 6th. Less flashy, with less individual consequences if it fails, but attempts to overturn the will of voters all the same. The most explicit of this, however, is not in any swing state (which are good allegories for the national condition), but in Missouri, where
Republicans in the state legislature attempted to overrule a passed ballot measure to expand Medicaid. (
They later lost in court, but the pattern remains the same: when Republicans lose control over a lever of government, they try to strip it of its power. It's the same reason
South Dakota Republicans are currently trying to cripple the state's ballot measure process, and why
Mississippi Republicans aren't trying to restore the state's ballot initiative process after the state Supreme Court eliminated it. The Republican Party's elites have decided that democracy is optional.
So let's examine January 6.
The first thing to understand is that it wasn't an isolated event or an uncontrolled riot-
local county-level GOP parties were calling for people to "Occupy the Capitol"-and, perhaps most crucially, telling the participants that they were to "overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution". The Stormers knew to target
House Whip Jim Clyburn's unmarked private office (bypassing his public marked one entirely), and where to find the
weak points at unreinforced windows. And we know from one of the principal organizers of the protest that became the Storming that
he had help from 3 Republicans (Mo Brooks, Paul Gosar, and Andy Biggs)And if nothing else, the Oath Keepers
were both organized and coordinated, with a second
"Quick Reaction Force" armed and waiting nearby for the order to storm the Capitol. That order ultimately never came, and coordination broke down. But we should not be depending on people's incompetence-
or willingness to follow a single police officer as bait away from the Senate to safeguard democracy (or a state at all)
Nor can we depend on
Mike Pence to deploy the National Guard when the President
is intentionally trying to prevent said that deployment.In their own words,
they were there to overthrow the government.The Republican response to this has been
to sweep things under the rug,
downplay, and
promote it.
The signal here is very clear-the consequences
will be light.
The stormers will be protected. The national party will do its best to prevent anyone from being held accountable.
And they won't try too hard to enforce anything.But why the acceleration?
sure, 63% of Republicans think the election was stolen and
59% say thinking Trump won is an important part of being a Republican.The conventional theories stop here.
And those theories are extremely important for explaining certain parts of Republican behaviour-
Replacing the members of their own party who certified the vote totals,
replacing election officials with election deniers, the endless audits (which uniformly find nothing). The voter suppression laws
passed in 19 states so far follow this pattern-in addition to cynical Republican politicians believing they can take advantage of the furor to cement electoral advantage.
But there's more to it than that. Consider this
poll.55% of Trump voters viewing it as "freedom", 51% viewing it as "patriotism."
But just as important is this topline from the same poll.
84% of Trump voters believe that democracy is threatened. And thanks to
years of apocalyptic rhetoric in their social circles, the
devastating effects of racial prejudice on their support for democracy, and the
unique animus towards minorities that animates Trump voters, we can say where the threat is and what they see as the problem-a multiracial, pluralistic democracy.
The wheels are all in motion for another coup attempt-this one, without the stopping points of before. The electoral
machinery is being taken over,,
the Republicans heading for elite positions are opposed to Democratic victories.
A large split-I would argue the fundamental one in the culture war politics-is about who gets to count as American. Whose voices-and votes-are legitimate and whose are not. The sucess of the "voter fraud" lies is directly tied to this idea-it preserves the idea of Real America (who just happens to be white, conservative, and Christian.)
And all of those things are necessary together-it's not any one thing in isolation.
In a country where 30% of the population-and slightly more than half of Republican voters-endorse the idea that "'God intended America to be a new promised land where European Christians could create a society that could be an example to the rest of the world" ever democratically deal with white status threat?
I don't know.
But we're finding out. And I don't like our chances.