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American Politics VII: Virginia Reel

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Who do you think will win the Virginia Gubernatorial Race?

Terry McAuliffe(D)
57
57%
Glenn Youngkin(R)
43
43%
 
Total votes : 100

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Spirit of Hope
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Postby Spirit of Hope » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:57 am



She has the only qualifications that Trump appears to care about, a relationship with him and backing whatever he wants.
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Antipatros
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Postby Antipatros » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:58 am

Fuck it. We should put Hunter Biden in as the President of the World Bank.

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The Reformed American Republic
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Postby The Reformed American Republic » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:58 am

Kowani wrote:
The Reformed American Republic wrote:Expect them to lose the Senate.

"an internal poll from Masto's Republican opponent"

lmao

I'm a bit weary I admit, but wouldn't exaggerating that suppress their own voters? It kind of takes the urgency out of "we need to all come out and beat the Democrats."

Plus, bias does not always mean there is no truth to it. Not only that, but a 4 point lead in another poll is not enough to fill me with confidence.

I'm hardly a fool to be concerned.
Last edited by The Reformed American Republic on Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:59 am, edited 2 times in total.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:01 am

The Reformed American Republic wrote:
Kowani wrote:"an internal poll from Masto's Republican opponent"

lmao

I'm a bit weary I admit, but wouldn't exaggerating that suppress their own voters? It kind of takes the urgency out of "we need to all come out and beat the Democrats."

Plus, bias does not always mean there is no truth to it. Not only that, but a 4 point lead in another poll is not enough to fill me with confidence.

I'm hardly a fool to be concerned.

A lot can change in a year.

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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:01 am

The Reformed American Republic wrote:
Kowani wrote:"an internal poll from Masto's Republican opponent"

lmao

I'm a bit weary I admit, but wouldn't exaggerating that suppress their own voters? It kind of takes the urgency out of "we need to all come out and beat the Democrats."

Plus, bias does not always mean there is no truth to it. Not only that, but a 4 point lead in another poll is not enough to fill me with confidence.

I'm hardly a fool to be concerned.

Nevada polling is historically weird, though. It typically leans Republican in polling more than actual results.
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The Reformed American Republic
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Postby The Reformed American Republic » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:11 am

Corrian wrote:
The Reformed American Republic wrote:I'm a bit weary I admit, but wouldn't exaggerating that suppress their own voters? It kind of takes the urgency out of "we need to all come out and beat the Democrats."

Plus, bias does not always mean there is no truth to it. Not only that, but a 4 point lead in another poll is not enough to fill me with confidence.

I'm hardly a fool to be concerned.

Nevada polling is historically weird, though. It typically leans Republican in polling more than actual results.

Well, I hope so.
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"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right." - Carl Schurz
Older posts do not reflect my positions.

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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:15 am

The Reformed American Republic wrote:
Corrian wrote:Nevada polling is historically weird, though. It typically leans Republican in polling more than actual results.

Well, I hope so.


It’s perhaps the only state where early voting is indicative of outcome.

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The Black Forrest
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Postby The Black Forrest » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:22 am

Antipatros wrote:Fuck it. We should put Hunter Biden in as the President of the World Bank.


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The Black Forrest
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Postby The Black Forrest » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:27 am

Spirit of Hope wrote:


She has the only qualifications that Trump appears to care about, a relationship with him and backing whatever he wants.


Indeed. You know it’s a bad idea when that guy blocked it.
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* There is actually a War on Christmas. But Christmas started it, with it's unparalleled aggression against the Thanksgiving Holiday, and now Christmas has seized much Lebensraum in November, and are pushing into October. The rest of us seek to repel these invaders, and push them back to the status quo ante bellum Black Friday border. -Trotskylvania
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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:30 am

The Reformed American Republic wrote:
Corrian wrote:Nevada polling is historically weird, though. It typically leans Republican in polling more than actual results.

Well, I hope so.

I'm assuming it comes from the fast the state is basically all rural...except Las Vegas, the only thing making the state not Republican. So its hard to poll or something. I don't know, its been weird the last few elections, if not forever.
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Cannot think of a name
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Postby Cannot think of a name » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:34 am

Corrian wrote:
San Lumen wrote:a lot can change in a year. Right now Democrats lead by about 4 points on the generic ballot.

I'm actually surprised its that high.

Yeah but how much do democrats have to win by in order to actually have a majority? I feel like in today’s landscape Democrats winning by 4% means a Republican majority.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:35 am

Corrian wrote:
The Reformed American Republic wrote:Well, I hope so.

I'm assuming it comes from the fast the state is basically all rural...except Las Vegas, the only thing making the state not Republican. So its hard to poll or something. I don't know, its been weird the last few elections, if not forever.

About 75 percent of the state population is in Clark County with anther ten being Washoe. Reno is the county seat of Washoe.

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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:36 am

Cannot think of a name wrote:
Corrian wrote:I'm actually surprised its that high.

Yeah but how much do democrats have to win by in order to actually have a majority? I feel like in today’s landscape Democrats winning by 4% means a Republican majority.

Probably does to be honest.

I don't even think we know yet, since new maps aren't done.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:41 am

Corrian wrote:
Cannot think of a name wrote:Yeah but how much do democrats have to win by in order to actually have a majority? I feel like in today’s landscape Democrats winning by 4% means a Republican majority.

Probably does to be honest.

I don't even think we know yet, since new maps aren't done.

That will determine a lot. Here in New York Democrats are likely to draw a map that would give them all but three seats in Congress.

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The Jamesian Republic
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Postby The Jamesian Republic » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:41 am

Antipatros wrote:Fuck it. We should put Hunter Biden in as the President of the World Bank.


Do you know what will happen if the Trump crowd or Q crowd learns about this?
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:44 am

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5763 ... ngress?amp

John Yarmuth chair of the budget committee will not seek re-election. This is a fairly safe Democratic district based around Louisville.

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Caleonia
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Postby Caleonia » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:44 am

San Lumen wrote:
Corrian wrote:Probably does to be honest.

I don't even think we know yet, since new maps aren't done.

That will determine a lot. Here in New York Democrats are likely to draw a map that would give them all but three seats in Congress.

Indiana’s redistribution of districts ensures a Republican supermajority.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:46 am

Caleonia wrote:
San Lumen wrote:That will determine a lot. Here in New York Democrats are likely to draw a map that would give them all but three seats in Congress.

Indiana’s redistribution of districts ensures a Republican supermajority.


And Democrats are likely to increase their supermajority in both chambers in New York.
Last edited by San Lumen on Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Austria-Bohemia-Hungary
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Postby Austria-Bohemia-Hungary » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:47 am

Caleonia wrote:
San Lumen wrote:That will determine a lot. Here in New York Democrats are likely to draw a map that would give them all but three seats in Congress.

Indiana’s redistribution of districts ensures a Republican supermajority.

How about we size districts after number of actual ppl in them lol? Why is this so completely thoroughly corrupt lmfao?
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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:47 am

San Lumen wrote:
Corrian wrote:Probably does to be honest.

I don't even think we know yet, since new maps aren't done.

That will determine a lot. Here in New York Democrats are likely to draw a map that would give them all but three seats in Congress.

I kinda hate that I'm okay with Democrats gerrymandering to counter Republican gerrymandering, until all gerrymandering gets stopped (Hopefully by passing the god damn voting rights bill that should have been passed months ago)
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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:49 am

That said, every state, if nobody actually passes the god damn voting rights bill, should work towards having independent redistricting commissions. They've passed in every state so far.
My Last.FM and RYM

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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:49 am

Austria-Bohemia-Hungary wrote:
Caleonia wrote:Indiana’s redistribution of districts ensures a Republican supermajority.

How about we size districts after number of actual ppl in them lol? Why is this so completely thoroughly corrupt lmfao?


You can’t. Districts have to be roughly equal in population. One person one vote.

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Senkaku
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Postby Senkaku » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:49 am


Sorry but that would’ve been an amazing comic relief side plot, I can’t forgive Mnuchin for taking that away from us even if it did probably save the world economy or whatever
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Kowani
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Postby Kowani » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:50 am

Cannot think of a name wrote:
Corrian wrote:I'm actually surprised its that high.

Yeah but how much do democrats have to win by in order to actually have a majority? I feel like in today’s landscape Democrats winning by 4% means a Republican majority.

The current generic ballot tracker is 44% Dem-41% Rep

in order to beat Republican geographic bias, the Democrats need to win...around 51%

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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:50 am

Corrian wrote:That said, every state, if nobody actually passes the god damn voting rights bill, should work towards having independent redistricting commissions. They've passed in every state so far.


And Republicans on the committee in Virginia walked out throwing the maps to the state Supreme Court to draw.

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