American Politics VII: Virginia Reel

[Tarsonis]

Yeah, sounds like you didn't read it. Because that's not what they said in the article. It's one of those "use your time for self betterment not watching netflix" articles.

There are many of us who just can’t separate the idea that if we are working, we should be getting paid. We think that if we are using our time to do something, there should be some form of monetary reward.

We often hear ourselves saying things like, “I am not doing that for free,” but we’re not looking at what we’re actually learning or the skills we are gaining from the use of our time. This mindset that our time should always be exchanged for money needs to go. When you start thinking that your time could be exchanged for other things like learning new skills and bettering yourself, you’ll start seeing the rewards it brings to your life (which, hey, will lead to more money at some point).

No don't don't say exactly those words but they're basically talking about unpaid internship and learning 'skills'.
Rich asshole giving me advise about my budget because they can't imagine the vast majority of their income going straight to food and shelter.

Well sure, rich assholes giving advice is always cringe, but the point is they weren't saying you should expect to not get paid to do your job.

[Postauthoritarian America]

a quick rundown of the problem

Biden releases BBB as one giant bill, with social/climate spending and infrastructure
Moderates demand he split it in two parts so they could get bipartisanship
progressives start social reconciliation bill at $6 Trillion over 10 years
Moderates cut it to $3.5 trillion over 10 years
the senate passes a $500 Billion infrastructure bill on a bipartisan basis-but the only reason progressives agreed to this was the understanding that both bills would pass and go to biden at the same time so no group could sink the other
moderates then put a bunch of means-testing and gimmicks into the already-cut reconciliation bill to make it less efficient
on top of this, a small group of the moderates (the Gottheimer 9) then tried to force the house to vote on the infrastructure bill before the senate had any agreement (or at least a public one, thanks to the manchin-schumer deal revealed today) on what reconciliation would look like

the progressives, understandably, don't want to give up their only leverage for getting their things done
hence where we are where we are now

Mind you, the 500 billion for infrastructure was ALSO a god damn compromise. We need trillions in infrastructure in this country.

Sorry, we spent all that money bleeding ourselves dry in Afghanistan for 20 years. China has 38000 clicks of high-speed rail. The US has bugger all. And Democratic leaders are pillorying Biden again today for pulling out. The asshats.

[The Black Forrest]

No don't don't say exactly those words but they're basically talking about unpaid internship and learning 'skills'.
Rich asshole giving me advise about my budget because they can't imagine the vast majority of their income going straight to food and shelter.

Well sure, rich assholes giving advice is always cringe, but the point is they weren't saying you should expect to not get paid to do your job.

I got a hint of salary should not be a major factor for you. Again; it’s fascinating to hear wealthy people suggest that.

[Zurkerx]

Okay, with elections in NJ and Virginia only about a month away, let's take a look how things stand. A few things to note: I only used polls that were B- rated or higher from 538. When inputting 538'a numbers, I assumed how the general populace would vote based on past elections and how their standing in the polls were. I also left a little room for the independent/other vote. Without further to do, here we go. First, my home State, NJ:

Currently, Murphy is projected to get 55.79% to Ciattarelli's 42.71%. So, not much to talk about here: Murphy will win, becoming the first NJ Democratic Governor to win re-election since Brendan Byrne did so in 1977. But Virginia is where it gets interesting:

Currently, McAuliffe is projected to get 50.95% to Youngkin's 48.05%. In terms of the mode, McAuliffe has a floor of 47% to Youngkin's 44%. However, given that a majority of polls only have the candidates separated by 3-5 points, it'll be a close race, one Democrats will not like. So, I suspect McAuliffe will win but it's his to lose.

You can see everything here.

[Senkaku]

House Members advised that the House is expected to complete consideration of the Senate Amendment to H.R. 3684 – Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act today


that is, Pelosi plans to go forward with the infrastructure bill today


also clyburn just hasn't been whipping votes for some reason?

Hopefully progressives aren't stupid enough to vote it down and sink the entire domestic agenda

Can't wait until we have another bridge collapse because our government can't get anything done.

We could prevent it by passing the infrastructure bill

If the House Republicans wanted to kill the reconciliation bill, you'd think that McCarthy would tell his members to vote for the bipartisan package.

It looks like they want to kill both bills, with the help of progressives.

Hopefully they do. Moderates aren't the only ones allowed to get their way anymore. Progressives are actually TRYING to fulfill Biden's agenda. The moderates are the ones ruining it. And I can't believe I have to say the progressives are following Biden better than anyone else.

Yes my way or highway and if it sinks his entire agenda and Republicans take back Congress next year oh well. enjoy Speaker McCarthy and Republicans nullifying a Democratic victory in 2024.

> mfw Democratic centrists are so delusionally committed to the aesthetics of compromise that they’re willing to throw industrial civilization and transcontinental political unity in the toilet over it

[San Lumen]

Hopefully progressives aren't stupid enough to vote it down and sink the entire domestic agenda

We could prevent it by passing the infrastructure bill

If the House Republicans wanted to kill the reconciliation bill, you'd think that McCarthy would tell his members to vote for the bipartisan package.

It looks like they want to kill both bills, with the help of progressives.

Yes my way or highway and if it sinks his entire agenda and Republicans take back Congress next year oh well. enjoy Speaker McCarthy and Republicans nullifying a Democratic victory in 2024.

> mfw Democratic centrists are so delusionally committed to the aesthetics of compromise that they’re willing to throw industrial civilization and transcontinental political unity in the toilet over it

How do you get that from what I said?

[Senkaku]

> mfw Democratic centrists are so delusionally committed to the aesthetics of compromise that they’re willing to throw industrial civilization and transcontinental political unity in the toilet over it

How do you get that from what I said?

“Ugh if only progressives would be mature and do the right thing instead of making ultimatums :^) THEY’RE the ones to blame if this doesn’t work out, not the ~responsible~ ~moderates~ :^)))”

in your case it makes sense that you’d uncritically accept a self serving centrist narrative to absolve the party’s right wing of blame for the impending financial apocalypse, but the fact it makes sense you’d go along with such nonsense doesn’t make it any less stupid or fake or malignant

framing this as a matter of intransigent puritanical progressives standing in the way of the Biden agenda is diametrically opposed to the facts and can really only stem from a right-wing impulse to attack the Democratic left for pursuing what, as far as anyone can tell, appears to be the literal will of most of the nation

[San Lumen]

How do you get that from what I said?

“Ugh if only progressives would be mature and do the right thing instead of making ultimatums :^) THEY’RE the ones to blame if this doesn’t work out, not the ~responsible~ ~moderates~ :^)))”

in your case it makes sense that you’d uncritically accept a self serving centrist narrative to absolve the party’s right wing of blame for the impending financial apocalypse, but the fact it makes sense you’d go along with such nonsense doesn’t make it any less stupid or fake or malignant

framing this as a matter of intransigent puritanical progressives standing in the way of the Biden agenda is diametrically opposed to the facts and can really only stem from a right-wing impulse to attack the Democratic left for pursuing what, as far as anyone can tell, appears to be the literal will of most of the nation

Republicans are the ones willing to blow up the global economy for partisan gain.

[Thermodolia]

Yellen says debt limit should go permanently

[San Lumen]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government ... esolution/


Biden signs government funding bill to prevent shutdown

[Kowani]

House currently voting on Continuing Resolution to avoid a government shutodown

Passes House (254-175)

All Dems voted yes, only 34 Republicans voted yes

Biden must sign before midnight

Biden signed, shutdown averted

[Great Algerstonia]

It's absurd how the Democrat progressive wing want to keep their spending spree going when the debt keeps rising and the debt ceiling will need to be raised yet again. We're spending way too much.

[Washington Resistance Army]

It's absurd how the Democrat progressive wing want to keep their spending spree going when the debt keeps rising and the debt ceiling will need to be raised yet again. We're spending way too much.

Counterpoint: we're not spending enough.

[Washington Resistance Army]

-snip-

[Uiiop]

It's absurd how the Democrat progressive wing want to keep their spending spree going when the debt keeps rising and the debt ceiling will need to be raised yet again. We're spending way too much.

The debt ceiling is an construct and no one bothers to end debt in itself or even really reduce it.

Even if it is a problem you understand with no work being done to fix it there's not a real way to get people to care or not question the dangers.

[San Lumen]

It's absurd how the Democrat progressive wing want to keep their spending spree going when the debt keeps rising and the debt ceiling will need to be raised yet again. We're spending way too much.

You are aware the debt ceiling isn't about current spending? Picture it as getting a renovation done in your apartment or house. You wouldn't stiff the contractor after the job was done would you?
This might by oversimplifying it a bit but its the best way I can attempt to explain it.

[Lord Dominator]

It's absurd how the Democrat progressive wing want to keep their spending spree going when the debt keeps rising and the debt ceiling will need to be raised yet again. We're spending way too much.

Maybe Republicans should stop cutting taxes to the point we raised or suspended the debt ceiling three times while Trump was in office.

[Kerwa]

Yellen says debt limit should go permanently

Yes they should do that.

No chance of it happening however. It’s a great excuse for politicians to indulge in meaningless posturing every so often, so no chance of it being done away with.

It’s fucking annoying.

[Antipatros]

Hopefully progressives aren't stupid enough to vote it down and sink the entire domestic agenda

We could prevent it by passing the infrastructure bill

If the House Republicans wanted to kill the reconciliation bill, you'd think that McCarthy would tell his members to vote for the bipartisan package.

It looks like they want to kill both bills, with the help of progressives.

Yes my way or highway and if it sinks his entire agenda and Republicans take back Congress next year oh well. enjoy Speaker McCarthy and Republicans nullifying a Democratic victory in 2024.

> mfw Democratic centrists are so delusionally committed to the aesthetics of compromise that they’re willing to throw industrial civilization and transcontinental political unity in the toilet over it

I don't care about the aesthetics of compromise. I care more about getting shit done.

If we had more seats, I'd be all for telling the Republicans to pound sand. That being said, it's increasingly looking like the $3.5 trillion is not going to happen. Best that can probably happen at this point is a reduced reconciliation bill.

[Cannot think of a name]

Hopefully progressives aren't stupid enough to vote it down and sink the entire domestic agenda

We could prevent it by passing the infrastructure bill

If the House Republicans wanted to kill the reconciliation bill, you'd think that McCarthy would tell his members to vote for the bipartisan package.

It looks like they want to kill both bills, with the help of progressives.

Yes my way or highway and if it sinks his entire agenda and Republicans take back Congress next year oh well. enjoy Speaker McCarthy and Republicans nullifying a Democratic victory in 2024.

> mfw Democratic centrists are so delusionally committed to the aesthetics of compromise that they’re willing to throw industrial civilization and transcontinental political unity in the toilet over it

Am I understanding this right? A handful of 'centrist' Democrats are holding up the agenda that the President ran on and the read of that situation is that aaaaaaaaallllllll the rest of the party should fold because they're the ones holding things up and not this handful of centrists? Was that his takeaway?

Is it because of that briar patch nonsense where we constantly have to be careful not to upset Republicans because they might get motivated to vote and instead continue to torpedo the agenda so that the Democratic base loses their enthusiasm voting for people who can't get shit passed because some dude in coal country or Connecticut or some bullshit will sink the ship rather than go with the party...that's what's for sale here?

[Corrian]

Can't wait until we have another bridge collapse because our government can't get anything done.

We could prevent it by passing the infrastructure bill

We could, but people are breaking their original agreements

[Antipatros]

It's absurd how the Democrat progressive wing want to keep their spending spree going when the debt keeps rising and the debt ceiling will need to be raised yet again. We're spending way too much.

I'm not too worried about a few trillion in extra spending in the short term, especially if that spending goes towards investments in our people. I think that we should also point out that the GOP went on a borrowing spree before going into the minority, like they always do.

When it comes to debt, I'm more concerned about the sustainability of Social Security and Medicare. Reforms will need to be made to those programs in order to keep them sustainable, but I doubt that those reforms will be seriously considered until a crisis point is reached. Depending on who has the political upper hand when that crisis point is reached, we could see Medicare and Social Security get gutted.

[Corrian]

Okay, with elections in NJ and Virginia only about a month away, let's take a look how things stand. A few things to note: I only used polls that were B- rated or higher from 538. When inputting 538'a numbers, I assumed how the general populace would vote based on past elections and how their standing in the polls were. I also left a little room for the independent/other vote. Without further to do, here we go. First, my home State, NJ:

Currently, Murphy is projected to get 55.79% to Ciattarelli's 42.71%. So, not much to talk about here: Murphy will win, becoming the first NJ Democratic Governor to win re-election since Brendan Byrne did so in 1977. But Virginia is where it gets interesting:

Currently, McAuliffe is projected to get 50.95% to Youngkin's 48.05%. In terms of the mode, McAuliffe has a floor of 47% to Youngkin's 44%. However, given that a majority of polls only have the candidates separated by 3-5 points, it'll be a close race, one Democrats will not like. So, I suspect McAuliffe will win but it's his to lose.

You can see everything here.

I'm actually surprised its even that close in Virginia with how blue its gone recently.

Also surprised that's the first NJ Democratic governor to win re-election since the 70s?

[The Reformed American Republic]

It's absurd how the Democrat progressive wing want to keep their spending spree going when the debt keeps rising and the debt ceiling will need to be raised yet again. We're spending way too much.

Your party spend like crazy when it was in power. It's only too much when that money is to help people and not the rich. No, our problem is not spending too much.

[Antipatros]

> mfw Democratic centrists are so delusionally committed to the aesthetics of compromise that they’re willing to throw industrial civilization and transcontinental political unity in the toilet over it

Am I understanding this right? A handful of 'centrist' Democrats are holding up the agenda that the President ran on and the read of that situation is that aaaaaaaaallllllll the rest of the party should fold because they're the ones holding things up and not this handful of centrists? Was that his takeaway?

Is it because of that briar patch nonsense where we constantly have to be careful not to upset Republicans because they might get motivated to vote and instead continue to torpedo the agenda so that the Democratic base loses their enthusiasm voting for people who can't get shit passed because some dude in coal country or Connecticut or some bullshit will sink the ship rather than go with the party...that's what's for sale here?

I mean, when we win with a 50-50 margin in the Senate and a 220-212 margin in the House, working with those moderates (however loathsome) is the hand we've been dealt.

I guess the alternative is that we can sit on our hands, do nothing, and argue with each other.