American Politics VII: Virginia Reel

[Dresderstan]

NYT has called Virginia for Youngkin.

[Senkaku]

Speaking of Washington, looks like Bruce Harrel will win for next Seattle Mayor. Statewide there really wasn't anything noteworthy this year though.

Seattle generally is having an incredibly bleak incumbent/reactionary sweep, from the city council to the mayor and city attorney to the county executive

[Galactic Transylvania]

Requiring someone "vote" doesn't preclude them from leaving the ballot blank or voting "Not Voting."

In fact most countries with required voter turnout do allow you to vote NV.

Unlike the US though they make voting incredibly convenient. The nonstarter of that in the US is not the 1st Amendment but that the voting process is a fucking pain in most states. You have to physically show up due to limited absentee or early options, for example.

Mandatory turn out is possible here but it'd require a whole host of other reforms.... which we should also do anyway, even if mandated turnout isn't the goal.

That's not enough given our absolutist interpretation of the 1st Amendment and how SCOTUS would likely rule on it.

Mandatory turnout is such a far future reform at this point I don't think its quite worth imagining how SCOTUS would rule.

The current one? Yeah they'd throw that shit out in a heartbeat. But I doubt by the time we're even legitimately legislatively discussing any kind of mandated turnout schema that any but maybe one or two of the current justices are still seated.

[Arlenton]

Youngkin officially is declared the winner. Won in a Biden +10 state.

2022 will be brutal. At least with good candidates that is.

[Big Bad Blue]

That's not gonna happen though. The House of Delegates being an absolute tie and the Senate still being under Democrat control isn't going to allow for anything drastic to happen.

relevant portion here-because of redistricting fuckery, we might have to redo the HoD elections

Not unheard of in the Commonwealth of Virginia. I was living in Arlington County when the Justice Dept. tried to force the Old Dominion to put just one delegate in each district. Predictably the Capitol of the Confederacy fought tooth and nail. They wound up holding three HoD elections in three years: the first had three delegates elected at-large from Arlington, two at-large from Alexandria City and one more elected at-large between the two. The second dropped the combined Arlington-Alexandria district. The third time was the charm. I date my real involvement in politics from the day I read in the Washington Post the quote from the Republican HoD minority leader that he didn't really believe in one person, one vote. I have looked to the Republican Party for the same level of chicanery and hatred for American values ever since and have seldom been disappointed.

[Corrian]

Here's another quote from the NYT:

As Democrats try and make sense of the wreckage tonight, one fact stands out as one of the easiest explanations: Joe Biden has lower approval ratings at this stage of his presidency than nearly any president in the era of modern polling.

Its so bizarre. He had such high approvals at the start and dropped so fast. Only reason it doesn't seem "Terrible" is because Trump's was basically lower his entire presidency. He had a bad streak since like August, and the current pandemic situation isn't helping. But hopefully that's truly heading in a better direction at the moment.

[San Lumen]

how would it run afoul?

Because it boils down to forcing people to have an opinion or to express themselves. The First Amendment allows us the right to do neither if wish. And because if the election is declared invalid, there's no constitutional machinery for a contingency, nor is there any momentum for such a measure.

Your not forcing anyone merely saying it’s not valid if you don’t hit a certain threshold and another must be called.

[Corrian]

That's not gonna happen though. The House of Delegates being an absolute tie and the Senate still being under Democrat control isn't going to allow for anything drastic to happen.

relevant portion here-because of redistricting fuckery, we might have to redo the HoD elections

That's fun.

[Shrillland]

Here's another quote from the NYT:

Its so bizarre. He had such high approvals at the start and dropped so fast. Only reason it doesn't seem "Terrible" is because Trump's was basically lower his entire presidency. He had a bad streak since like August, and the current pandemic situation isn't helping. But hopefully that's truly heading in a better direction at the moment.

Not likely. HIs BBB plan's been gutted like a walleye, not that the general public's been paying attention to anything about it except its cost, so it must be terrible.

[Galactic Transylvania]

If anyone who's upset right now once some cope material....

After Obama won the state in 2008 by 6 points, Bob McDonnell beat his Democratic opponent by a full 17 points.

There's some precedent for VA just being reactionary like that to national politics.

[Picairn]

AP called Virginia for Youngkin. It's over.

[Corrian]

Speaking of Washington, looks like Bruce Harrel will win for next Seattle Mayor. Statewide there really wasn't anything noteworthy this year though.

Seattle generally is having an incredibly bleak incumbent/reactionary sweep, from the city council to the mayor and city attorney to the county executive

I haven't payed a ton of attention yet. What do you mean by this?

[Shrillland]

If anyone who's upset right now once some cope material....

After Obama won the state in 2008 by 6 points, Bob McDonnell beat his Democratic opponent by a full 17 points.

There's some precedent for VA just being reactionary like that to national politics.

Yeah, but Kowani's also shown that there is a link to how Virginia swings and how the nation swings the following year.

[San Lumen]

Youngkin officially is declared the winner. Won in a Biden +10 state.

2022 will be brutal. At least with good candidates that is.

That’s an understatement. I’m calling it now both chambers flip and Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin elect Republican governors.

[Corrian]

Youngkin officially is declared the winner. Won in a Biden +10 state.

2022 will be brutal. At least with good candidates that is.

That’s an understatement. I’m calling it now both chambers flip and Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin elect Republican governors.

Just the US way to flip flop back and forth. Its already old and I'm only 27.

[Kowani]

If anyone who's upset right now once some cope material....

After Obama won the state in 2008 by 6 points, Bob McDonnell beat his Democratic opponent by a full 17 points.

There's some precedent for VA just being reactionary like that to national politics.

to qualify this a bit-The president’s party has lost all but one VA gov race since the 1970s

with that said, the scope of the swing (and just as important, how the GOP won and with who) point that this isn't mere thermostatic public opinion at play
those are factors, but they're not the whole story

[Shrillland]

Youngkin officially is declared the winner. Won in a Biden +10 state.

2022 will be brutal. At least with good candidates that is.

That’s an understatement. I’m calling it now both chambers flip and Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin elect Republican governors.

The House flips, certainly, but that's to be expected. As for the state races, I think it too early to make that pronouncement.

[Galactic Transylvania]

If anyone who's upset right now once some cope material....

After Obama won the state in 2008 by 6 points, Bob McDonnell beat his Democratic opponent by a full 17 points.

There's some precedent for VA just being reactionary like that to national politics.

Yeah, but Kowani's also shown that there is a link to how Virginia swings and how the nation swings the following year.

There definitely is.

2010 was not a good midterm for Democrats.

That being said Biden +10 to Youngkin+1.5 is a much smaller swing than Obama +6 to McDonnell +17.

Also trends are just that - trends. There's a lot of things that happened this time around in VA. We'll have to do a proper post mortem with clear heads at a later date when more data is in. Right now it could be anything from "The Democrats are all going to die in 2022" to "Terry McAuliffe ran a surprisingly bad campaign."

[San Lumen]

That’s an understatement. I’m calling it now both chambers flip and Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin elect Republican governors.

The House flips, certainly, but that's to be expected. As for the state races, I think it too early to make that pronouncement.

After tonight’s results I have little faith.

[Corrian]

Yeah, but Kowani's also shown that there is a link to how Virginia swings and how the nation swings the following year.

There definitely is.

2010 was not a good midterm for Democrats.

That being said Biden +10 to Youngkin+1.5 is a much smaller swing than Obama +6 to McDonnell +17.

Also trends are just that - trends. There's a lot of things that happened this time around in VA. We'll have to do a proper post mortem with clear heads at a later date when more data is in. Right now it could be anything from "The Democrats are all going to die in 2022" to "Terry McAuliffe ran a surprisingly bad campaign."

1.5 is a lot closer to the last polling averages too.

[The Two Jerseys]

The narrative of the night? Dead people voting in New Jersey

Oh please, "dead Bergen County voters" has been a thing for decades...

[Kowani]

Jack Citarellii says he will declare victory real soon

[Shrillland]

Yeah, but Kowani's also shown that there is a link to how Virginia swings and how the nation swings the following year.

There definitely is.

2010 was not a good midterm for Democrats.

That being said Biden +10 to Youngkin+1.5 is a much smaller swing than Obama +6 to McDonnell +17.

Also trends are just that - trends. There's a lot of things that happened this time around in VA. We'll have to do a proper post mortem with clear heads at a later date when more data is in. Right now it could be anything from "The Democrats are all going to die in 2022" to "Terry McAuliffe ran a surprisingly bad campaign."

If anything, that's the biggest problem he had. McAuliffe ran a surprisingly bad campaign combined with his statement on parents dictating to school boards, which lead to a lacklustre turnout on the Democatic side alongside the general glumness over Biden. On the other hand, Youngkin ran an equally surprisingly good campaign, managing to carefully play to both sides of the Trump fence, keeping his distance early on and slowly coming to Trumpist embraces in the closing weeks, using CRT rhetoric as his membership card and plucking away a lot of ostensibly centrist voters with nonetheless clear Culture War positions.

[Big Bad Blue]

The House flips, certainly, but that's to be expected. As for the state races, I think it too early to make that pronouncement.

After tonight’s results I have little faith.

Drown your sorrows, get some rest and get up tomorrow ready to go to work again at whatever you're doing to resist Republican white supremacist authoritarianism. That's the way this works. Me, I helped keep a fascist off a city council tonite so I'm content.

[Dresderstan]

Jack Citarellii says he will declare victory real soon

Reminder to anyone still here, Salem county hasn't reported in yet.