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American Politics VII: Virginia Reel

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Who do you think will win the Virginia Gubernatorial Race?

Terry McAuliffe(D)
57
57%
Glenn Youngkin(R)
43
43%
 
Total votes : 100

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Kowani
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Founded: Apr 01, 2018
Democratic Socialists

Postby Kowani » Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:45 pm

Luminesa wrote:[
Honestly, Biden needs to write a, “No,” spelled with an executive order for Manchin to shut up. Knowing that one of the Senators pushing for Pelosi to hold the vote now is one of mine (probably), I’m hoping we can actually get some sort of legislation going soon. Progressives need to stop playing this “Bachlorette-will-they-won’t-they” game and vote.

so this is, from the progressive standpoint, a bad idea (also that's not how the house works, there are no progressives on the rules committee)
their only leverage for us to get the social care bill (which also has all the climate change provisions) is by not voting for the infrastructure bill until after reconciliation gets passed
manchin, knowing this, wants the social care bill to be delayed until afer the infrastructure bill passes so that he can just kill the social care one without losing anything

he is, in essence, a colossal dumbass



It's not even been 24 hours and Manchin's already got competition for his award, the entirely unelected and aconstitutional senate parliamentarian

The arbiter of Senate procedural rules said Sunday that Democrats’ plan to provide a pathway to citizenship for millions of immigrants living in the country illegally couldn’t be included in a wide-ranging $3.5 trillion proposal expanding the safety net and responding to climate change. The decision from the office of Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough said that the plan to legalize a group including young immigrants, farmworkers, essential workers and those living in the U.S. on humanitarian grounds didn’t comply with the chamber’s rules.

The finding marks a setback for Democrats, who are advancing their sweeping legislation through a procedure that requires only a simple majority, rather than the 60 votes required to advance most legislation and overcome a filibuster. No Republicans are expected to support the Democrats’ proposal, and Vice President Kamala Harris would break any tie in the 50-50 Senate.

To qualify for inclusion in legislation advanced through the process, known as budget reconciliation, any change must have a significant impact on the federal budget that is more than incidental to the policy change being sought.

In the findings, the parliamentarian’s office said granting legal status to immigrants would mark “a policy change that substantially outweighs the budgetary impact of that change.”

Democrats were hoping to include the immigration measure in the broader bill in the hope of creating a path to citizenship for immigrants in the country illegally, including so-called dreamers, who were brought to the country as children. Democrats are still likely to float alternate changes to immigration law past the parliamentarian, including updating a law known as the registry, which would allow anyone present in the country earlier than a certain date to become a legal permanent resident.

“We are deeply disappointed in this decision but the fight to provide lawful status for immigrants in budget reconciliation continues,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) in a statement. He said Senate Democrats have prepared alternate proposals and plan to hold additional meetings with the parliamentarian.

Still, the ruling signals Ms. MacDonough is likely to come down against any broad measure offering green cards to immigrants who currently aren’t eligible for them.

“Changing the law to clear the way to [lawful permanent resident] status is tremendous and enduring policy change that dwarfs its budgetary impact,” the ruling states. The ruling notes that if creating a path to citizenship through a simple majority vote were to be allowed, it would become just as easy for a future Congress to repeal that path through a simple-majority vote as well.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.), the top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, applauded the decision.

“The parliamentarian’s guidance reinforces long held traditions of the Senate that major policy changes should be done collaboratively and not through the reconciliation process,” he said in a statement.

Under the chamber’s rules, the presiding officer of the Senate—in this case Ms. Harris—can disregard the parliamentarian’s advice. Such a step would likely give both parties more license to ignore the parliamentarian in future fights, and they have abided by the parliamentarian’s rulings in recent disputes. Earlier this year, Democrats abided by the parliamentarian’s ruling that excluded a provision raising the minimum wage in a previous reconciliation package.

Many Democrats have also argued that Senate Democrats should get rid of the filibuster rule altogether, and let all legislation advance with a simple majority. Proponents say this would allow the party to pass bills on contentious issues including immigration and election rules. But several Democratic senators have objected to such a move, blocking any change for now.

The stakes have risen for the young immigrants known as Dreamers after a federal judge in Texas ruled this summer that the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which provides many of them temporary deportation protections, is illegal.

In that suit, brought by Texas and other Republican-led states, U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen ruled the program amounted to presidential overreach because Congress never gave the executive branch the power to grant mass reprieves from immigration enforcement. His ruling barred the Biden administration from approving new DACA applications but stayed the immediate effect of his ruling on current DACA recipients.

Supporters of Dreamers in both parties are fearful that, should the case reach the Supreme Court, the conservative majority could end the program altogether and strip protections away.

Immigration advocates expressed disappointment at the ruling, but they said it doesn’t entirely foreclose the options for Democrats.

For months, advocacy groups have worked with Congressional staffers to draw up alternate proposals that make smaller tweaks to immigration law, should the parliamentarian rule as she did.

“There are other ways to get this done, there are other options that are still on the table, so we are still hopeful,” said Sergio Gonzales, executive director of the Immigration Hub, an advocacy group whose previous leader is now President Biden’s top immigration adviser.


byrd's ghost in collaboration with an omnipotent rules goblin is going to make for a very depressing budget
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Kilobugya
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby Kilobugya » Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:07 am

Genivaria wrote:
San Lumen wrote:A write in candidate and third party candidacy isn’t the same.

And both are completely valid.


In the US they might somewhat close, but in the rest of the world they aren't. Very few places allow write in candidate (actually, to preserve the anonymity of votes, in most places any handwriting invalidates a ballot) but most of the world doesn't have enforced bi-partism like the USA, but at least 3-5 "major" parties and many smaller ones that still get votes and representatives.
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Kilobugya
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby Kilobugya » Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:17 am

San Lumen wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:No. But that’s because I think primaries are fucking stupid and a waste of time and money


Why?


I'm much more in favor of RCV than of primaries, when we have to elect one individual.
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The Andorian System
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Posts: 128
Founded: Aug 13, 2021
Ex-Nation

Postby The Andorian System » Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:27 am

North Washington Republic wrote:Jungle primaries have a racist AF history. They were particularly design to disenfranchise black candidates



Is there any proof that the California style Jungle Primary is racist?
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Thermodolia
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Posts: 78488
Founded: Oct 07, 2011
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Thermodolia » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:00 am

Kilobugya wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
Why?


I'm much more in favor of RCV than of primaries, when we have to elect one individual.

Well one of the problems with primaries is that they add a second layer of voting on top of the regular election and extended the campaign season by 6+ months.

So even if you switched to IRV for a single seat office you’d still be screwed because the primary could still be there.
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Kilobugya
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby Kilobugya » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:05 am

Thermodolia wrote:
Kilobugya wrote:
I'm much more in favor of RCV than of primaries, when we have to elect one individual.

Well one of the problems with primaries is that they add a second layer of voting on top of the regular election and extended the campaign season by 6+ months.

So even if you switched to IRV for a single seat office you’d still be screwed because the primary could still be there.


You don't need primaries anymore if you have IRV/RCV.
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San Lumen
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Posts: 87635
Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Liberal Democratic Socialists

Postby San Lumen » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:51 am

Kilobugya wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
Why?


I'm much more in favor of RCV than of primaries, when we have to elect one individual.

I fully support RCV.

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Ifreann
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Posts: 164188
Founded: Aug 07, 2005
Iron Fist Socialists

Postby Ifreann » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:45 am

The Reformed American Republic wrote:
Ifreann wrote:Your point is barely a point at all. What exactly about the Norwegian system do you think should be adopted in the US to prevent the abuse of prisoners by guards? Where did you even get the idea that Norwegian prisons don't have any abuse of prisoners by the guards? Do you actually know that to be the case, factually, or are you assuming that the reputation of Norwegian prisons must preclude guards abusing their power? Personally I don't know much of anything about Norway's prisons, beyond being familiar with their reputation. I rather doubt that they are somehow a perfect institution. I doubt they have the same problems as the US, but I do expect that they have problems informed by the society in which they were created.

It's got one of the lowest recidivism rates in the world and prisoners have much more rights and amenities than they have here. There is no evidence of widespread abuse there. You cannot seem to handle the fact that prisons can be done right and your position is an unnuanced tear it all down, Gravlen's article notwithstanding.

Prisons shouldn't be completely abolished even if we reduce the number of people we send there.

You're just repeating the reputation of this prison system. What about Norway's system do you think should be adopted in the US to prevent the abuse of prisoners by guards?


Kowani wrote:I would like to award the prize of “dipshit of the year” to Joe Manchin

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is privately saying he thinks Congress should take a “strategic pause” until 2022 before voting on President Biden’s $3.5 trillion social-spending package, people familiar with the matter tell Axios. Manchin’s new timeline — if he insists on it — would disrupt the plans by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to vote on the budget reconciliation package this month.

Back home in West Virginia last week, Manchin told a group of employees at a Procter & Gamble facility in Martinsburg he wanted to pause all the talk about the $3.5 trillion bill until 2022, Axios was told.
Those semi-public comments track with some of his private conversations about how long he wants to impose the "strategic pause" he floated in a Wall Street Journal op-ed this month.
Manchin didn't give a specific timeline in his op-ed.

Any delay on the Democrat-only reconciliation package could imperil House passage of the separate $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, which Pelosi has promised to pass by Sept. 27.

House progressive lawmakers are publicly vowing to vote against the infrastructure bill if it's not paired with the $3.5 trillion bill to be passed through the budget reconciliation process.
But centrist Democrats are adamant the House pass the bipartisan bill first — next week.
[…]
The Democrats' strategy of passing the two pieces of legislation simultaneously will face a crucial test this coming week.

Last Friday, nine House centrists reminded Pelosi of her promise to hold a vote on the infrastructure bill by Sept. 27 — a week from Monday.
“We reiterate our appreciation for the Speaker’s public commitment to only bring a bill to the House floor that can garner the necessary 51 votes for passage in the Senate,” the nine lawmakers said in a joint statement. “We need legislation that can get out of the Senate and to the president’s desk.”
But progressives insist the bipartisan package will fail if leadership brings it to the floor for a vote before the reconciliation bill is passed.
“It won’t have sufficient votes to pass the House,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told Bloomberg.
What they're saying: Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), the House majority whip, suggested Sunday his party may need more time to resolve its differences.

“Sometimes, you have to kind of stop the clock to get to the goal,” he told CNN.
He also said of a $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill: "It may be $3.5 [trillion]. It may be close to that, or it may be closer to something else."

Wait until you lose the Senate to the Republicans and then get serious about advancing your legislative agenda. A truly genius political stratagem.
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Antipatros
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Founded: Aug 26, 2021
Ex-Nation

Postby Antipatros » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:51 am

Ifreann wrote:Wait until you lose the Senate to the Republicans and then get serious about advancing your legislative agenda. A truly genius political stratagem.

Of course, it's not his legislative agenda. Politically he is closer to the Republicans than he is to the left wing of the Democratic party.

At least according to this, him and Murkowski have the same ideology score.

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San Lumen
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Posts: 87635
Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Liberal Democratic Socialists

Postby San Lumen » Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:28 am

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5 ... a-governor

Ex-Sen. Dean Heller announces run for Nevada governor. Heller is probably the strongest candidates Republicans can get in this purple state.

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Thermodolia
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Founded: Oct 07, 2011
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Thermodolia » Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:58 am

Kilobugya wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:Well one of the problems with primaries is that they add a second layer of voting on top of the regular election and extended the campaign season by 6+ months.

So even if you switched to IRV for a single seat office you’d still be screwed because the primary could still be there.


You don't need primaries anymore if you have IRV/RCV.

You’d think that but current evidence has proven otherwise. I mean look at the NYC mayor election, they still had a primary.

I agree that you really don’t need primaries in the US but the problem is that unless you explicitly ban them they’ll still happen
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:03 am

Thermodolia wrote:
Kilobugya wrote:
You don't need primaries anymore if you have IRV/RCV.

You’d think that but current evidence has proven otherwise. I mean look at the NYC mayor election, they still had a primary.

I agree that you really don’t need primaries in the US but the problem is that unless you explicitly ban them they’ll still happen


Your never going to get a law passed banning primaries. The reason we got RCV in the primary only was a result of a compromise.

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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:14 am

San Lumen wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:You’d think that but current evidence has proven otherwise. I mean look at the NYC mayor election, they still had a primary.

I agree that you really don’t need primaries in the US but the problem is that unless you explicitly ban them they’ll still happen


Your never going to get a law passed banning primaries. The reason we got RCV in the primary only was a result of a compromise.

You don’t need the primary in the first place. You have IRV. You can still run multiple candidates from the same party and a democrat would still win. No need to have a primary when you can just number your favorite candidates and still end up electing the same party
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:17 am

Thermodolia wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
Your never going to get a law passed banning primaries. The reason we got RCV in the primary only was a result of a compromise.

You don’t need the primary in the first place. You have IRV. You can still run multiple candidates from the same party and a democrat would still win. No need to have a primary when you can just number your favorite candidates and still end up electing the same party


As I have said I have no issue with RCV. Doing away with the primary and having a system like in San Francisco or Minneapolis was proposed but the city council could not reach agreement hence the compromise that went to referendum of using it for primaries.

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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:24 am

San Lumen wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:You don’t need the primary in the first place. You have IRV. You can still run multiple candidates from the same party and a democrat would still win. No need to have a primary when you can just number your favorite candidates and still end up electing the same party


As I have said I have no issue with RCV.

I didn’t ask you if you had a problem with IRV. And it’s called IRV, not RCV. IRV is a RCV but not all RCVs are IRV.

Doing away with the primary and having a system like in San Francisco or Minneapolis was proposed but the city council could not reach agreement hence the compromise that went to referendum of using it for primaries.

Well that’s fucking stupid and shows that the party has way to much influence in politics
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:30 am

Thermodolia wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
As I have said I have no issue with RCV.

I didn’t ask you if you had a problem with IRV. And it’s called IRV, not RCV. IRV is a RCV but not all RCVs are IRV.

Doing away with the primary and having a system like in San Francisco or Minneapolis was proposed but the city council could not reach agreement hence the compromise that went to referendum of using it for primaries.

Well that’s fucking stupid and shows that the party has way to much influence in politics


What is the difference?

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Kilobugya
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby Kilobugya » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:31 am

Thermodolia wrote:I didn’t ask you if you had a problem with IRV. And it’s called IRV, not RCV. IRV is a RCV but not all RCVs are IRV.


Technically that's true, ie the Condorcet methods are also RCV but are somewhat different from IRV.

But in practice in the US people call it RCV. I can sometimes fight downhill battles for the purity of names, but I don't feel like doing it for this one, so I just go with the flow. I'm past the days where I would answer to people "no, your mass is X kg, not your weight, a weight is a vector and is measured in Newton".
Last edited by Kilobugya on Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Thermodolia
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Posts: 78488
Founded: Oct 07, 2011
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Thermodolia » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:33 am

San Lumen wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:I didn’t ask you if you had a problem with IRV. And it’s called IRV, not RCV. IRV is a RCV but not all RCVs are IRV.


Well that’s fucking stupid and shows that the party has way to much influence in politics


What is the difference?

To which point are you responding too?
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:42 am

Thermodolia wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
What is the difference?

To which point are you responding too?

The difference between rcv and Irv?

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Northern Connecticut
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Founded: May 05, 2021
Ex-Nation

Postby Northern Connecticut » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:47 am

Getting rid of the filibuster be like:
Every body Gangsta till the republicans win the senate and pass all the laws the dems don't like.
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Antipatros
Minister
 
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Founded: Aug 26, 2021
Ex-Nation

Postby Antipatros » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:51 am

Northern Connecticut wrote:Getting rid of the filibuster be like:
Every body Gangsta till the republicans win the senate and pass all the laws the dems don't like.

A fair point. I expect that Biden will be exercising his veto hand quite a bit if that happens, though.

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Picairn
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Founded: Feb 21, 2020
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Picairn » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:52 am

Northern Connecticut wrote:Getting rid of the filibuster be like:
Every body Gangsta till the republicans win the senate and pass all the laws the dems don't like.

Fun fact, when the Dems win back the Senate there's nothing stopping them too. And certain programs have become the third rail, such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
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Kilobugya
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby Kilobugya » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:53 am

San Lumen wrote:The difference between rcv and Irv?


RCV = Ranked-Choice Voting, a large class of voting methods in which instead of just selecting one candidate/proposal, you rank them (ie, Sanders #1, Biden #2, Trump #3).

IRV = Instant Run-off Voting, a specific variation of RCV in which you start by pruning the candidate with the least amount of votes, and then use the #2 choice of those who selected them, and so on until one candidate has 50%+1 vote.

But there are other methods, like Condorcet methods, that uses a ranked-choice (and therefore are RCV), but which differ from IRV.

Typically if you've three candidates, A, B, C, and no one is really fond of C, but no one really dislike C either, you'll have lots A, C, B and B, C, A votes, but few votes with C in position 1 or 3, so using IRV C will be eliminated (since they don't many first choice) and either A or B will win. But using Condorcet methods, C would win, because they would defeat both A and B in head-to-head situation.
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Tarsonis
Post Czar
 
Posts: 31222
Founded: Sep 20, 2017
Democratic Socialists

Postby Tarsonis » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:53 am

Antipatros wrote:
Northern Connecticut wrote:Getting rid of the filibuster be like:
Every body Gangsta till the republicans win the senate and pass all the laws the dems don't like.

A fair point. I expect that Biden will be exercising his veto hand quite a bit if that happens, though.


Ah yes, something the Republicans will love come campaign season
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Northern Connecticut
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Ex-Nation

Postby Northern Connecticut » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:53 am

Picairn wrote:
Northern Connecticut wrote:Getting rid of the filibuster be like:
Every body Gangsta till the republicans win the senate and pass all the laws the dems don't like.

Fun fact, when the Dems win back the Senate there's nothing stopping them too. And certain programs have become the third rail, such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.


When the republicans win, everyone's gonna be like: NOOOOOOOOO BRING BACK THE FILIBUSTER!!!!!!!!
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