A team of 5 elite US special forces operators (with lots of field op experience) form a death squad ("Punisher Task Force") and show up in New York City. Their objective is to kill off every single member of organised crime in New York City (they have a large and comprehensive hit list). All 5 operators are 100% committed to this objective and are fanatical in that they will do anything and everything to accomplish the mission (including offing civilians if necessary).
Meanwhile, all members on that list have received a warning that a "Punisher Task Force" is coming for them (and at first, it is probable that many members will take it as a prank warning).
The Punisher Task Force has the following additional advantages which they are aware of:
1. Law enforcement will stand down and not intervene with the activities of the Punisher Task Force. If the police are nearby, called or summoned in a situation where the Punisher Task Force is in action, they will magically ignore the situation and walk away.
2. The Punisher Task Force have a free 500,000 USD in cash which they can use to buy weapons legal and illegal (completely untraceable). If they need more money than that it will have to come out of pocket or they will have to steal the money.
3. They have functional fake IDs to use for this mission.
They operate with the following limitations:
1. They cannot leave New York City until and unless all targets have been eliminated or have left New York City.
2. While it is acceptable to have some civilian collateral casualties (innocents killed), if this number exceeds 100 they fail the mission (and they do not want to fail the mission). The task force members are aware of how many civilians die at all times.
...
Now presumably, it will not be possible for the Punisher Task Force to simply get all of NYC's organised crime in a single place and just off them with a single trap. What will likely happen, is that they take out some of the big players (or maybe they will start with lower level thugs) but at some point, some elements of organised crime will realise:
"Hey this warning thing, it's a serious deal and something's off because the police don't care."
At which point NYC's crime groups might work together to try and eliminate the Punisher Task Force (before they themselves get wiped off).
Now this is where it gets more interesting. Each side will then try to mind game the other while switching tactics around until one side is left standing. Who will win? Remember, nothing in the rules prevent the crime groups from hiring professional killers from other cities and places or bringing in additional gang members.
The win condition of the Punisher Task Force is the complete elimination (or departure) or every single person on the original list (all organised crime members in NYC). NYC's crime groups would presumably want to bait and eliminate the Punisher Task Force but their success may depend on WHEN they start to take this threat seriously, when (and if) they can work together, and whether or not they can adapt to whatever the tactics of special forces operations assassination that the Task Force will use.
Which side do you think would prevail? Please provide a justification.
Options:
1. Punisher Task Force would prevail (every single member of NYC organised crime member would either be dead or leave NYC)
2. Organised Crime would take out the Task Force, however, much more than half of the people on the list would be eliminated before they manage it
3. Organised Crime would take out the Task Force, however, roughly half of the people on the list would be eliminated before they manage it
4. Organised Crime would take out the Task Force, only less than half of the people on the list would be eliminated
