Coronavirus Thread VII: Jagged Little Pill (READ OP)

[Antipatros]

Mercifully, it appears that the US hospitalization totals are peaking.

[Deblar]

Mercifully, it appears that the US hospitalization totals are peaking.

(Image)

Yay.

Now can we please for the love of God make sure it doesn’t get that high again anytime soon?

[Thermodolia]

So apparently a bunch of very smart people decided to go protest in front of the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, not realizing that it’s Labor Day.

Very smart people

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

So apparently a bunch of very smart people decided to go protest in front of the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, not realizing that it’s Labor Day.

Very smart people

Geniuses.

[Diahon]

with the mu variant showing a degree of vaccine resistance and now its presence looming in 49 of 50 us states, how much more can the us healthcare system take? will the most lethal variant of them all, evading vaccines altogether and causing mass organ failure, emerge out of an american?

[Tinhampton]

with the mu variant showing a degree of vaccine resistance and now its presence looming in 49 of 50 us states, how much more can the us healthcare system take? will the most lethal variant of them all, evading vaccines altogether and causing mass organ failure, emerge out of an american?

I'm old enough to remember approximately six weeks ago when the UK was supposed to be the hip and swinging hotspot for hypothetical variants... hasn't come to much yet, apparently

[San Lumen]

with the mu variant showing a degree of vaccine resistance and now its presence looming in 49 of 50 us states, how much more can the us healthcare system take? will the most lethal variant of them all, evading vaccines altogether and causing mass organ failure, emerge out of an american?

What evidence is there of that and from what ive heard if it evaded vaccines entirely it would stop spreading as the vaccine targets the spike protein and that doesn't change all that much.

[Kowani]

will the most lethal variant of them all, evading vaccines altogether and causing mass organ failure, emerge out of an american?

ik the us is pretty much playing plague inc. on easy mode but come on

[Xmara]

with the mu variant showing a degree of vaccine resistance and now its presence looming in 49 of 50 us states, how much more can the us healthcare system take? will the most lethal variant of them all, evading vaccines altogether and causing mass organ failure, emerge out of an american?

Based on what I've read, the mu variant doesn't appear to be as transmissible as the delta variant, so it will likely not become the dominant variant any time soon (unlike delta, which seemed to become the dominant variant overnight). However, unlike delta, mu has the infamous E484K "escape mutation," meaning that it has the potential to infect even people who are vaccinated. Beta, gamma, and zeta all have the E484K mutation. Beta and gamma are WHO variants of concern, while zeta was dropped as a variant of interest back in July. So obviously it's not the sole mutation we need to worry about.

IMO, I don't think that a variant that is both highly transmissible and highly lethal at the same time is likely to emerge. That seems to be an extreme worst case scenario. Not saying it's impossible, just improbable. I'm really trying hard to maintain some degree of optimism that this pandemic is not an extinction level event.

[Xmara]

Mercifully, it appears that the US hospitalization totals are peaking.

(Image)

I really hope so. Don't get your hopes up though.

[San Lumen]

with the mu variant showing a degree of vaccine resistance and now its presence looming in 49 of 50 us states, how much more can the us healthcare system take? will the most lethal variant of them all, evading vaccines altogether and causing mass organ failure, emerge out of an american?

Based on what I've read, the mu variant doesn't appear to be as transmissible as the delta variant, so it will likely not become the dominant variant any time soon (unlike delta, which seemed to become the dominant variant overnight). However, unlike delta, mu has the infamous E484K "escape mutation," meaning that it has the potential to infect even people who are vaccinated. Beta, gamma, and zeta all have the E484K mutation. Beta and gamma are WHO variants of concern, while zeta was dropped as a variant of interest back in July. So obviously it's not the sole mutation we need to worry about.

IMO, I don't think that a variant that is both highly transmissible and highly lethal at the same time is likely to emerge. That seems to be an extreme worst case scenario. Not saying it's impossible, just improbable. I'm really trying hard to maintain some degree of optimism that this pandemic is not an extinction level event.

Im not an expert but i would think its likely the variant that's most transmissible would be one that wins out and any other would have a hard time getting a foothold.

Its not an extinction level event by any stretch and anyone who tells you that is fear mongering.

[Valentine Z]

On the topic of variants, a little jest. It would be morbidly funny if Omega variant is "the last".

"Oh hey, Omega variant might be the very last-"
"Now then, we have the Alpha-Alpha variant..."

/ No jinx.

[Great Algerstonia]

with the mu variant showing a degree of vaccine resistance and now its presence looming in 49 of 50 us states, how much more can the us healthcare system take? will the most lethal variant of them all, evading vaccines altogether and causing mass organ failure, emerge out of an american?

Based on what I've read, the mu variant doesn't appear to be as transmissible as the delta variant, so it will likely not become the dominant variant any time soon (unlike delta, which seemed to become the dominant variant overnight). However, unlike delta, mu has the infamous E484K "escape mutation," meaning that it has the potential to infect even people who are vaccinated. Beta, gamma, and zeta all have the E484K mutation. Beta and gamma are WHO variants of concern, while zeta was dropped as a variant of interest back in July. So obviously it's not the sole mutation we need to worry about.

IMO, I don't think that a variant that is both highly transmissible and highly lethal at the same time is likely to emerge. That seems to be an extreme worst case scenario. Not saying it's impossible, just improbable. I'm really trying hard to maintain some degree of optimism that this pandemic is not an extinction level event.

This pandemic is absolutely not going to be extinction level in any way.

[Xmara]

On the topic of variants, a little jest. It would be morbidly funny if Omega variant is "the last".

"Oh hey, Omega variant might be the very last-"
"Now then, we have the Alpha-Alpha variant..."

/ No jinx.

I hope it's the last

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

Based on what I've read, the mu variant doesn't appear to be as transmissible as the delta variant, so it will likely not become the dominant variant any time soon (unlike delta, which seemed to become the dominant variant overnight). However, unlike delta, mu has the infamous E484K "escape mutation," meaning that it has the potential to infect even people who are vaccinated. Beta, gamma, and zeta all have the E484K mutation. Beta and gamma are WHO variants of concern, while zeta was dropped as a variant of interest back in July. So obviously it's not the sole mutation we need to worry about.

IMO, I don't think that a variant that is both highly transmissible and highly lethal at the same time is likely to emerge. That seems to be an extreme worst case scenario. Not saying it's impossible, just improbable. I'm really trying hard to maintain some degree of optimism that this pandemic is not an extinction level event.

This pandemic is absolutely not going to be extinction level in any way.

But even 10% lethality is going to massively suck on a scale people could never imagine. So there's that.

[Valentine Z]

My personal take is... At the moment, it's most very likely not going to be an extinction event. Hopefully. But at the rate we are going with and doing things (or *lack* of doing things), it's going to stay (and mutate) for quite a long while.

Disclaimer: I'm no expert, just throwing a dart in the dark.

[Kowani]

Mercifully, it appears that the US hospitalization totals are peaking.

(Image)

wait 'till winter

i don't mean to be a downer but a lot of people here were crushed when it looked like the worst of the pandemic was behind us and then the anti-vaxx seeds came to root so
keep your expectations realistic, people!

[Xmara]

This pandemic is absolutely not going to be extinction level in any way.

But even 10% lethality is going to massively suck on a scale people could never imagine. So there's that.

But how transmissible would that be? The Marburg virus is one of the most lethal viruses in the world, yet it has a very low transmissibility.

Now if you combined 10% lethality with delta's transmissibility...

[Xmara]

My personal take is... At the moment, it's most very likely not going to be an extinction event. Hopefully. But at the rate we are going with and doing things (or *lack* of doing things), it's going to stay (and mutate) for quite a long while.

Disclaimer: I'm no expert, just throwing a dart in the dark.

No no, your "dart in the dark" is quite probable, I think.

We're never gonna 100% eradicate covid, but we can aim for as few casualties as possible. Hopefully, over time the virus will no longer be as big of a threat as before. One possible trajectory I read about is that the virus eventually becomes like the common cold: a mild inconvenience for the majority of people.

[Valentine Z]

My personal take is... At the moment, it's most very likely not going to be an extinction event. Hopefully. But at the rate we are going with and doing things (or *lack* of doing things), it's going to stay (and mutate) for quite a long while.

Disclaimer: I'm no expert, just throwing a dart in the dark.

No no, your "dart in the dark" is quite probable, I think.

We're never gonna 100% eradicate covid, but we can aim for as few casualties as possible.

Ohh, definitely. Wishing you and your family well, as well!

[Xmara]

No no, your "dart in the dark" is quite probable, I think.

We're never gonna 100% eradicate covid, but we can aim for as few casualties as possible.

Ohh, definitely. Wishing you and your family well, as well!

Thank you! My dad is going to be getting his booster soon, which will alleviate a lot of my anxiety.

Here's an article about the possibility of the virus becoming more like the common cold in the future. Hopefully that is what happens.

[San Lumen]

But even 10% lethality is going to massively suck on a scale people could never imagine. So there's that.

But how transmissible would that be? The Marburg virus is one of the most lethal viruses in the world, yet it has a very low transmissibility.

Now if you combined 10% lethality with delta's transmissibility...

Marburg is not airborne,

[Kowani]

Despite mandate, government clinics left without any support to implement the new testing requirements

The government is not providing COVID-19 testing to its employees at the federally run clinics positioned throughout the country, despite a new mandate requiring the tests for unvaccinated workers.

Leadership at Federal Occupational Health, a division of the Health and Human Services Department that serves more than 350 agencies and 1.5 million employees, has told federal managers that COVID-19 testing is too expensive and laborious for it to conduct at any of its facilities. Some managers who spoke to Government Executive said they approached Federal Occupational Health after the Biden administration announced a requirement that all federal employees either attest that they have been vaccinated against COVID-19 or submit to at least weekly testing.

Recent guidance from the Safer Federal Workforce Task Force—created by President Biden via executive order and led by the White House, General Services Administration and the Office of Personnel Management—suggested that agencies could rely on occupational health clinics to provide the testing. Leadership at the federal clinics told the managers that the agency was not consulted on the task force's guidance.

A Federal Occupational Health official repeatedly said the agency “did not want to pursue that line of business,” one federal supervisor said after a conference call with its top leadership. The official stressed the task force’s guidance said testing may be available through the occupational health clinics, but did not require it.

A second federal worker said the health agency stressed that it would have taken months to stand up a testing program and required extensive work to credential its employees to conduct tests. Federal Occupational Health is staffed by the U.S. Public Health Service’s Commissioned Corps, as well as Health and Human Services Department civil servants. Officials also told the manager that it would be overly costly to provide the testing.

Both supervisors said employees within their agencies were rejected from receiving any care—such as a temperature check—that could be related to COVID-19 ever since the outset of the pandemic. They noted the clinics would normally provide services such as drawing blood and annual flu shots. Federal Occupational Health, created by Congress in 1946, boasts on its website that it provides a "comprehensive array of services [that] helps agencies promote workplace health, wellness and safety." HHS declined to comment for this story.

Managers throughout government are raising concerns about the testing requirement, saying they have not been provided with sufficient guidance or resources to implement it. The Government Managers Coalition, consisting of five associations that represent federal supervisors, said in a recent letter to the task force that their needs during the pandemic have received "scant attention" from the Office of Personnel Management, the Office of Management and Budget, and the White House.

“Failure by the administration to ensure agencies are properly equipping and empowering federal leaders to implement and execute the guidance and directives coming from the administration undermines its own objectives and priorities," wrote the group, which represents more than 250,000 federal managers. The letter added that the coalition's members will "bear the brunt of challenges" to those policies and noted some are now spending a large portion of their work days performing clerical duties. The group said members were particularly concerned over funding for COVID-19 testing, as the White House previously clarified agencies would have to rely on existing funds to set up the testing programs. Members of the managers group are not "trained nor equipped" to oversee screening protocols and should be protected by the administration when enforcing new requirements, the letter stated. Agencies are issuing inconsistent messages and policies, it added.

“We need a clear, authoritative, singlesource message that is crystal clear and available for managers to use,” the coalition wrote.

OMB did not respond to a request to comment.

The managers coalition members said federal supervisors are taking demotions to avoid their new responsibilities and many employees are declining to take promotions into management.

“We cannot continue the same failed approach of tossing vague, general guidance at agencies in the hopes they can work out the kinks,” said Bob Corsi, president of the Senior Executives Association. “This only causes disparate impacts and duplicative work. The federal government must prioritize leadership so federal managers have the tools to truly succeed and respond to the needs of employees and the public.”

[Thermodolia]

But how transmissible would that be? The Marburg virus is one of the most lethal viruses in the world, yet it has a very low transmissibility.

Now if you combined 10% lethality with delta's transmissibility...

Marburg is not airborne,

Not with that attitude

[Xmara]

But how transmissible would that be? The Marburg virus is one of the most lethal viruses in the world, yet it has a very low transmissibility.

Now if you combined 10% lethality with delta's transmissibility...

Marburg is not airborne,

That is true. I'm just using it as an example to show that lethality is not the sole indicator of how screwed we are. You have to take into account transmissibility as well.