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The "pattern of being wrong" standard

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GuessTheAltAccount
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The "pattern of being wrong" standard

Postby GuessTheAltAccount » Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:06 pm

With Real Time With Bill Maher set to start airing again tomorrow, one thing that came to mind was a bit of a double standard within his own fandom, toward his own statements, about the "pattern of being wrong" standard of assessing credibility.

In 2006, he called the Heritage Foundation and Project For A New American Century out on their pattern of being wrong, all the time, about everything, and extrapolated this to why pulling out of Iraq would be a good idea. I don't recall anyone objecting at the time to this line of reasoning.

However, this past season, he has made an unmistakably recurring theme of making reference to how much the World Health Organization was wrong about and extrapolated this to why it's a good case for the lab leak hypothesis. It isn't even his only reasoning for this particular claim, of course, but just the fact that he even invokes that line of reasoning as part of it is not quite as popular in that context as in the context of the Iraq War. Why do you suppose that is?

Is it because they agree with him more on wanting to pull out of Iraq than on the lab leak hypothesis? If so, why aren't they calling his "pattern of being wrong" argument a more poor argument for a policy they otherwise support? If not, what else is their reasoning? More generally, by what standard do we decide when "pattern of being wrong" reasoning is justified and when it isn't?
Last edited by GuessTheAltAccount on Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Balthemos » Fri Jul 30, 2021 6:44 am

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Postby Unstoppable Empire of Doom » Fri Jul 30, 2021 6:48 am

So you think it wasn't leaked but intentionally spread from the lab to pull the US out of the Iraq war as part of a pattern.

Nailed it.
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Postby Ifreann » Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:01 am

Can't believe Bill Maher is still on the air when he's an anti-vaxxer who has repeatedly promoted the lie that vaccines cause Autism.
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GuessTheAltAccount
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Postby GuessTheAltAccount » Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:10 am

Ifreann wrote:Can't believe Bill Maher is still on the air when he's an anti-vaxxer who has repeatedly promoted the lie that vaccines cause Autism.

Only the MMR vaccines. The COVID vaccine is one he himself claims to have gotten, and credits with the fact that his own case of the disease was non-life-threatening.

In any case, I don't think he's catering to the "anti-vax circlejerk" market so much as the "outside-the-box thinking straying from left-right conformity is so damn rare we'll have to take it where we can find it" market. We all are in the dark, to some extent, on who to believe about what. Sometimes we just have to bump into a few corners until we find our way. We all have our blind spots, and his is on MMR. Even so, it could be reasonably blamed on the tendency of its advocates to avoid the debate instead of embracing the debate as a chance to make their point, the latter being what one would expect those who have logic on their side to do. Either way, you can't reasonably blame the other side for dissenting. They're supposed to dissent. We're always supposed to dissent. That's how we know which ideas stand up to scrutiny.

And I'm not saying this to project my own reasons for continuing to watch the show on other fans. If you look at the comments to new Bill Maher clips, they're not exactly an echo chamber. Bill says something like "parents are afraid to challenge what kids are being taught"? Hoo boy, you'll bet they have something to say about that...
Northern Socialist Council Republics wrote:Christian “charity” is morally at par with fascist soup kitchens; a transparent bid to buy goodwill for their reactionary beliefs.

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Austreylia
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Postby Austreylia » Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:14 am

Ifreann wrote:Can't believe Bill Maher is still on the air when he's an anti-vaxxer who has repeatedly promoted the lie that vaccines cause Autism.

Yeah. How dare he be able to publicise his opinions?

More shock and outrage from a resident NSGer.
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Postby The Federal Government of Iowa » Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:20 am

Austreylia wrote:
Ifreann wrote:Can't believe Bill Maher is still on the air when he's an anti-vaxxer who has repeatedly promoted the lie that vaccines cause Autism.

Yeah. How dare he be able to publicise his opinions?

More shock and outrage from a resident NSGer.

I know right? How dare someone with an unpopular view even be allowed to EXIST! WE MUST C A N C E L HIM! Oh please, give me a break, it is necessary for a functioning republic that people be able to handle dissenting viewpoints without going ballistic.
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Postby Kerwa » Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:20 am

I’m not watching a Bill Maher clip. He should go back to the 90s.

But if I get the gist, it is faulty reasoning. What does WHO incompetence have to do with a lab leak in Wuhan? They are independent things aren’t they?

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Postby Heloin » Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:21 am

GuessTheAltAccount wrote:
Ifreann wrote:Can't believe Bill Maher is still on the air when he's an anti-vaxxer who has repeatedly promoted the lie that vaccines cause Autism.

Only the MMR vaccines.

The well known biggest lie of the anti vaxxer movement?
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Austreylia
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Postby Austreylia » Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:23 am

The Federal Government of Iowa wrote:I know right? How dare someone with an unpopular view even be allowed to EXIST! WE MUST C A N C E L HIM! Oh please, give me a break, it is necessary for a functioning republic that people be able to handle dissenting viewpoints without going ballistic.

The thing with leftists is that they want to silence people for perfectly reasonable viewpoints, such as being vaccine-skeptic, anti-LGBT, anti-immigration, or even being proud of your culture or national history...

...but they'll insist on being allowed to propagate absolute, gutter-tier degeneracy with no penalty at all.
...we do a little trolling, it's called we do a little trolling.

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GuessTheAltAccount
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Postby GuessTheAltAccount » Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:23 am

Heloin wrote:
GuessTheAltAccount wrote:Only the MMR vaccines.

The well known biggest lie of the anti vaxxer movement?

Doesn't make it any less of a strawman to characterize that as opposition to vaccination as an entire concept.
Last edited by GuessTheAltAccount on Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
Northern Socialist Council Republics wrote:Christian “charity” is morally at par with fascist soup kitchens; a transparent bid to buy goodwill for their reactionary beliefs.

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Ifreann
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Postby Ifreann » Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:50 am

GuessTheAltAccount wrote:
Ifreann wrote:Can't believe Bill Maher is still on the air when he's an anti-vaxxer who has repeatedly promoted the lie that vaccines cause Autism.

Only the MMR vaccines. The COVID vaccine is one he himself claims to have gotten, and credits with the fact that his own case of the disease was non-life-threatening.

In any case, I don't think he's catering to the "anti-vax circlejerk" market so much as the "outside-the-box thinking straying from left-right conformity is so damn rare we'll have to take it where we can find it" market. We all are in the dark, to some extent, on who to believe about what. Sometimes we just have to bump into a few corners until we find our way. We all have our blind spots, and his is on MMR. Even so, it could be reasonably blamed on the tendency of its advocates to avoid the debate instead of embracing the debate as a chance to make their point, the latter being what one would expect those who have logic on their side to do. Either way, you can't reasonably blame the other side for dissenting. They're supposed to dissent. We're always supposed to dissent. That's how we know which ideas stand up to scrutiny.

The ideas behind the lie that the MMR vaccine causes Autism have never stood up to even the slightest scrutiny. It was debunked years ago. The only evidence in favour of MMR vaccines causing Autism was that parents believed that they had first observed Autism symptoms shortly after receiving the vaccine. Nothing else. Belief of correlation. The man behind it, Andrew Wakefield, is no longer allowed to practice medicine. He was paid to "discover" a new syndrome that caused Autism by a lawyer hoping to sue pharmaceutical companies. He discarded evidence from his original study that proved him wrong about the proposed nature of this syndrome. He lied about some of the children even having Autism. And even knowing that he was wrong, that he was studying a fake syndrome that he was making up, he subjected children to a brutal series of medical procedures without receiving properly informed consent from their parents. He did not tell the parents anything about the possible risks of the tests he was doing on these children. Tests that were pointless. Further, he was attempting to sell his own alternative measles vaccine, which he developed in cooperation with another disgraced doctor who, no word of a lie here, believes that Autism can be cured with an oral medication derived from his own bone marrow.

And even putting aside all of this, there have been subsequent studies of millions of children that have turned up nothing. Maher isn't some enlightened sceptic, he's an arrogant piece of shit who shouldn't have any kind of public platform.

And I'm not saying this to project my own reasons for continuing to watch the show on other fans. If you look at the comments to new Bill Maher clips, they're not exactly an echo chamber. Bill says something like "parents are afraid to challenge what kids are being taught"? Hoo boy, you'll bet they have something to say about that...

I don't really care about the comment sections of clips from Bill Maher's show.
Last edited by Ifreann on Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Austreylia » Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:52 am

Ifreann wrote:The ideas behind the lie that the MMR vaccine causes Autism have never stood up to even the slightest scrutiny.

I had the MMR vaccines and was later diagnosed with autism.

That cannot be ignored!
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Postby Shazbotdom » Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:53 am

Austreylia wrote:
The Federal Government of Iowa wrote:I know right? How dare someone with an unpopular view even be allowed to EXIST! WE MUST C A N C E L HIM! Oh please, give me a break, it is necessary for a functioning republic that people be able to handle dissenting viewpoints without going ballistic.

The thing with leftists is that they want to silence people for perfectly reasonable viewpoints, such as being vaccine-skeptic, anti-LGBT, anti-immigration, or even being proud of your culture or national history...

...but they'll insist on being allowed to propagate absolute, gutter-tier degeneracy with no penalty at all.


That's so funny. Because Rightest try to do the same damn thing to anyone that doesn't fall in line with their viewpoints. I have, many times, had a Republican go all "lalalalala, I can't hear you" in a debate when they are proved wrong about something, or turn around and throw around insult after insult after they were proven wrong. So sorry, but trying to silence people is not something that Democrats only do when they are proven wrong, many, many, MANY Republicans are guilty of it as well.
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GuessTheAltAccount
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Postby GuessTheAltAccount » Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:54 am

Austreylia wrote:
Ifreann wrote:The ideas behind the lie that the MMR vaccine causes Autism have never stood up to even the slightest scrutiny.

I had the MMR vaccines and was later diagnosed with autism.

That cannot be ignored!

Individual anecdotes cannot be proven online, and aren't necessarily a representative sample of the big picture anyway. You'd need something more verifiable than that for it to be relevant.

That said, I still think Bill Maher's occasional missteps along his journey of outside-the-box thinking don't negate the necessity of voices outside the left-right false dichotomy.
Northern Socialist Council Republics wrote:Christian “charity” is morally at par with fascist soup kitchens; a transparent bid to buy goodwill for their reactionary beliefs.

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Postby Necroghastia » Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:57 am

Austreylia wrote:
The Federal Government of Iowa wrote:I know right? How dare someone with an unpopular view even be allowed to EXIST! WE MUST C A N C E L HIM! Oh please, give me a break, it is necessary for a functioning republic that people be able to handle dissenting viewpoints without going ballistic.

The thing with leftists is that they want to silence people for perfectly reasonable viewpoints, such as being vaccine-skeptic,

okay, what's reasonable about that?
anti-LGBT,

okay, what's reasonable about that?
anti-immigration,

okay, what's reasonable about that?
or even being proud of your culture or national history...

strawman and you know it lol
...but they'll insist on being allowed to propagate absolute, gutter-tier degeneracy with no penalty at all.

lol like what
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New yugoslavaia
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Postby New yugoslavaia » Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:00 am

Necroghastia wrote:
lol like what


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Ifreann
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Postby Ifreann » Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:02 am

Austreylia wrote:
Ifreann wrote:The ideas behind the lie that the MMR vaccine causes Autism have never stood up to even the slightest scrutiny.

I had the MMR vaccines and was later diagnosed with autism.

That cannot be ignored!

It can, though.
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Postby The Reformed American Republic » Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:03 am

Austreylia wrote:
Ifreann wrote:The ideas behind the lie that the MMR vaccine causes Autism have never stood up to even the slightest scrutiny.

I had the MMR vaccines and was later diagnosed with autism.

That cannot be ignored!

And I think you would have had autism anyway, whether you had the injection or not.
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Austreylia
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Postby Austreylia » Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:06 am

Necroghastia wrote:
The thing with leftists is that they want to silence people for perfectly reasonable viewpoints, such as being vaccine-skeptic,

okay, what's reasonable about that?

It's having something injected into your body by some scummy, profit-chasing company that has probably killed more people than you've had hot dinners. It's perfectly reasonable.



anti-LGBT,

okay, what's reasonable about that?

Not supporting people who insist on being referred to as another gender, and who try to get you fired for not supporting their agenda, is perfectly reasonable.

anti-immigration,

okay, what's reasonable about that?

It's reasonable because people might not want foreigners coming in who won't abide by their countries laws, and will bring their own customs.


or even being proud of your culture or national history...

strawman and you know it lol

No.


...but they'll insist on being allowed to propagate absolute, gutter-tier degeneracy with no penalty at all.

lol like what

Teaching kids about transgenders and gays, advocating porn for kids and so on.
...we do a little trolling, it's called we do a little trolling.

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New yugoslavaia
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Postby New yugoslavaia » Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:08 am

Austreylia wrote:
Necroghastia wrote:okay, what's reasonable about that?

It's having something injected into your body by some scummy, profit-chasing company that has probably killed more people than you've had hot dinners. It's perfectly reasonable.



okay, what's reasonable about that?

Not supporting people who insist on being referred to as another gender, and who try to get you fired for not supporting their agenda, is perfectly reasonable.

okay, what's reasonable about that?

It's reasonable because people might not want foreigners coming in who won't abide by their countries laws, and will bring their own customs.


strawman and you know it lol

No.


lol like what

Teaching kids about transgenders and gays, advocating porn for kids and so on.


https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/fac ... tester.jpg
Yugoslavia's back baby...

How the hell did this happen?
Well...we don't actually know. Sure, there's factbooks and stuff, but they don't really matter because the owner of this account is a lazy, unproductive, indecisive loser who may or may not have a thing for half human hybrids, big mechs and even bigger ships.
Is it a reunited Yugoslavia in the 21st century? Is a rebel colony world in the far future? Who knows, who cares?
New Yugoslavia just is.

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Austreylia
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Postby Austreylia » Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:10 am

New yugoslavaia wrote:https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/001/865/wikipedian_protester.jpg

I'm not gonna provide any citations. If you care that much, search for them yourself.
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GuessTheAltAccount
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Postby GuessTheAltAccount » Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:11 am

Austreylia wrote:
New yugoslavaia wrote:https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/001/865/wikipedian_protester.jpg

I'm not gonna provide any citations. If you care that much, search for them yourself.

...that's not how it works. If you make the claim, it's on you to cite a source and/or elaborate on the reasoning your assumptions are based on.
Northern Socialist Council Republics wrote:Christian “charity” is morally at par with fascist soup kitchens; a transparent bid to buy goodwill for their reactionary beliefs.

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Austreylia
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Postby Austreylia » Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:13 am

GuessTheAltAccount wrote:...that's not how it works. If you make the claim, it's on you to cite a source and/or elaborate on the reasoning your assumptions are based on.

That is how it works. I'm not gonna provide citations for my claims that the LGBT people want to teach kids about their ways.

It's been part of the debate for a while now. Everyone knows that it's on the table.
...we do a little trolling, it's called we do a little trolling.

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New yugoslavaia
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Postby New yugoslavaia » Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:16 am

Austreylia wrote:
GuessTheAltAccount wrote:...that's not how it works. If you make the claim, it's on you to cite a source and/or elaborate on the reasoning your assumptions are based on.

That is how it works. I'm not gonna provide citations for my claims that the LGBT people want to teach kids about their ways.

It's been part of the debate for a while now. Everyone knows that it's on the table.


Look. If you're going to act like this, we'll have no choice but to disregard you opinions Plato.
Yugoslavia's back baby...

How the hell did this happen?
Well...we don't actually know. Sure, there's factbooks and stuff, but they don't really matter because the owner of this account is a lazy, unproductive, indecisive loser who may or may not have a thing for half human hybrids, big mechs and even bigger ships.
Is it a reunited Yugoslavia in the 21st century? Is a rebel colony world in the far future? Who knows, who cares?
New Yugoslavia just is.

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