Spanish Invasion of Incan Empire

[Vikanias]

It’s mainland Spain.

In 1700 the Netherlands only had a population of 1.7 Million.

And sources are a quick google search.

Avakov, p. 12-13, "Population of the Habsburg Netherlands by the early 16th century [...] Belgium (1,400,000) plus the Netherlands (950,000)"

That's just under 2.4 million

Yes, but I did say mainland Spain

[Vana Ptang]

This is kindergarten level understanding of military history.
Better technology does not automatically equate to military victory when you're outnumbered 1000 to 1.

Not to mention fighting in a very large, primarily alpine semi-arid semi-tropical environment is like 8 different military disasters rolled up into one. It's a miracle that the invasion of the Inca even worked at all!

I think that the people who are dismissing the technological superiority are wrong, but the problem the Spanish had is getting the troops there. There is a minimum number of troops that would be needed to occupy it, even if there was no organized resistance. Here is where the political aspect comes into play. The Spanish could conquer the Incas, in part because it was a state. There was some structure to take over. That is part of the reason why, some armies won be conquering the capital, or why military coups, where a small amount of troops can sieze control of a whole Empire.

Of course, that isn't always true. Russia defeated Napoleon simply by not giving up. Napoleon won all the battles and took Moscow, but the Tzar in ST. Petersburg didn't negotiate.

Back to the main point, if the Spanish sent troops to conquer the Incas, some would have died before they even got there, if the Spanish just marched around the Andes, not fighting a war they would have died. It probably wouldn't have been worth it to the Spaniards, especially if the first attempt failed, and they didn't know how much wealth was there.

Most likely, an invasion from Mexico could have been launched, but only after it built up enough military capacity on its own.

[Berhakonia]

Avakov, p. 12-13, "Population of the Habsburg Netherlands by the early 16th century [...] Belgium (1,400,000) plus the Netherlands (950,000)"

That's just under 2.4 million

Yes, but I did say mainland Spain

Then that's kinda irrelevant to my statement regarding population because I was comparing the Inca Empire, in its totality, to the Spanish Empire, in its totality.

[Vikanias]

Yes, but I did say mainland Spain

Then that's kinda irrelevant to my statement regarding population because I was comparing the Inca Empire, in its totality, to the Spanish Empire, in its totality.

Mhm, so we come to an agreement?

[Berhakonia]

Then that's kinda irrelevant to my statement regarding population because I was comparing the Inca Empire, in its totality, to the Spanish Empire, in its totality.

Mhm, so we come to an agreement?

The argument shouldn't have happened in the first place

[Ifreann]

I never managed it in EU4, but I'm sure it's possible for a better player.

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Yes because we all know having steel and horses makes you arrow proof.

Peru also lends itself so well to cavalry charges.

Osgiliath was easy mode

Having played Skyrim, I see no reason that horses should have any difficulty with that terrain.

[Punished UMN]

This won’t even be a problem,
The only thing to discuss is how big the Spaniard’s victory can be?
Where can a nation without steel and horses gain the possibility of victory?
Unless the Incas can produce a virus that is deadly to Westerners from their cruel sacrifices

Yes because we all know having steel and horses makes you arrow proof.

I mean steel can and does make you arrow proof, but that doesn't make you immune to having a bunch of dudes tackle you and stab you in the gaps of your armor.

[Infected Mushroom]

I never managed it in EU4, but I'm sure it's possible for a better player.

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Peru also lends itself so well to cavalry charges.

Osgiliath was easy mode

Having played Skyrim, I see no reason that horses should have any difficulty with that terrain.

Theoretically, Incans could hold out and get to Imperial Age too. They just have to hard-turtle.

Since Spain has to come over in ships, Incans should have more time to mine and collect food, wood, and gold and to do tech research.

[Salus Maior]

I never managed it in EU4, but I'm sure it's possible for a better player.

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Having played Skyrim, I see no reason that horses should have any difficulty with that terrain.

Theoretically, Incans could hold out and get to Imperial Age too. They just have to hard-turtle.

Since Spain has to come over in ships, Incans should have more time to mine and collect food, wood, and gold and to do tech research.

…Technological advancement doesn’t work like Age of Empires in real life.

‘Turtling’ isn’t really that viable a strategy for real life empires. Although there are exceptions for certain smaller countries.

[Heloin]

In shocking news, the real world doesn’t work like video games.

[Baltenstein]

I never managed it in EU4, but I'm sure it's possible for a better player.

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Having played Skyrim, I see no reason that horses should have any difficulty with that terrain.

Theoretically, Incans could hold out and get to Imperial Age too. They just have to hard-turtle.

Since Spain has to come over in ships, Incans should have more time to mine and collect food, wood, and gold and to do tech research.

If you use a Real Earth Map with True Starting Locations, the Incas are in a perfect position to turtle. It makes sense to not expand too much with them, as you'll be wanting to aim for a Science Victory with their perks.

[Ifreann]

In shocking news, the real world doesn’t work like video games.

This thread isn't about the real world, it's about IM's imagination, which is entirely based on video games and TV and movies.

[Salus Maior]

Theoretically, Incans could hold out and get to Imperial Age too. They just have to hard-turtle.

Since Spain has to come over in ships, Incans should have more time to mine and collect food, wood, and gold and to do tech research.

If you use a Real Earth Map with True Starting Locations, the Incas are in a perfect position to turtle. It makes sense to not expand too much with them, as you'll be wanting to aim for a Science Victory with their perks.

Unless we’re doing Civ IV true start maps. The Incas also lag behind everyone else because they can’t cross the mountains and end up stuck in their pocket.

[Salus Maior]

In shocking news, the real world doesn’t work like video games.

This thread isn't about the real world, it's about IM's imagination, which is entirely based on video games and TV and movies.

I think a real world scenario of the Inca empire surviving is plausible in the absence of the plague though.

If they defeated the Spanish hard enough in a few initial battles (which I think is very likely) the Spanish probably wouldn’t come in force for a good long while (mostly because that would be a logistical nightmare, and anxiety towards being beaten again). Pizzaro would probably be remembered as an idiot.

[New Rogernomics]

Spain would still win in the long-term, whether through late conquest in the 19th century or after playing various factions against each other in a divide and conquer strategy. Without the disease though, millions would survive. Who knows, maybe a Republic of the Inca would exist today after winning independence in the 20th century.

[Insaanistan]

Having some guns and steel doesn't matter if you don't have enough of them and can't supply yourself effectively.

If you're outnumbered and outsmarted, that can make the difference.

Your forgetting that Spain had already conquered the aztecs and the Spanish weren't dumb

The Spaniards conquered the Aztecs by using non-Spaniards in the area because everyone hated the Aztecs.

The Inca could have held off the Spaniards for quite a while: sending troops, supplies, and weapons across the Atlantic took a great deal of time that the Inca could use to their advantage. Heck, I wouldn’t rule out the Inca getting a temporary treaty with the Spaniards where missionaries do their business but the Inca keep their autonomy. At least, for a while. IMO, the Spaniards would eventually conquer the Inca. However, there would be a much bigger native influence in the Inca area. I’d love to see a more Quechua influenced Western South America.

[Flohaland]

What if they deceived and captured Capac like they did Atahualpa? Iirc, that was a key part of the conquest. Been a while since I looked it up.

I think there's a level of retrospective justification on the part of the common historical narrative on this one; that's not directed at you, but rather popular historiographical memory generally.

Atahualpa came to power as the result of a civil war against his half-brother Huascar. Clearly the power of the Sapa Inka could be contested by internal factions within the Inca state.

Atahualpa's capture complicated resistance to Pizarro, but contrary to popular belief, it didn't end it; brothers of Huascar and Atahualpa created a 'neo-Inca' state that lasted for decades in opposition to the Spanish. It's not so much that the Inca state was so reverential towards its ruler that resistance was impossible, but rather the impact of the civil war and the catastrophic death toll caused by the smallpox epidemic. These - not primitive pagan reverence for a god-king - led to the significant disruption of internal state structures and political inertia that made Pizarro's conquest possible.

We have a tendency to underestimate the impact of smallpox on the Aztec and Inca states. But by some estimates (quote here from William McNeill's Plagues and Peoples), 'by 1568, less than fifty years from the time Cortez inaugurated epidemiological as well as other exchanges between Amerindian and European populations, the population of central Mexico had shrunk to ... about one tenth of what had been there when Cortez landed' (pg 204). It would be difficult for any state to offer organised resistance under those epidemiological circumstances, especially when the opponent is immune to the same epidemic, and the consequences seem to both sides to justify the presumed religious and cultural superiority of the invaders.

Or to quote page 207:

From Hispaniola, smallpox traveled to Mexico, arriving with the relief expedition that joined Cortez in 1520. As a result, at the very crisis of the conquest, when Montezuma had been killed and the Aztecs were girding themselves for an attack on the Spaniards, smallpox raged in Tenochtitlan. The leader of the assault, along with innumerable followers, died within hours of compelling the Spaniards to retreat from their city. Instead of following up on the initial success and harrying the tiny bands of Spaniards from the land, therefore, as might have been expected had the smallpox not paralyzed effective action, the Aztecs lapsed into a stunned inactivity. Cortez thus was able to rally his forces, gather allies from among the Aztecs' subject peoples [and, McNeill neglects to mention, traditional opponents] and return for the final siege and destruction of the capital.

Clearly, if smallpox had not come when it did, the Spanish victory could not have been achieved in Mexico. The same was true of Pizarro's filibuster into Peru. For the smallpox epidemic in Mexico id not confine its ravages to Aztec territory. Instead, it spread to Guatemala, where it appeared in 1520, and continued southward, penetrating the Inca domain in 1525 or 1526. Consequences there were just as drastic as among the Aztecs. The reigning Inca died of the disease while away from his capital on campaign in the North. His designated heir also died, leaving no legitimate successor. Civil war ensued, and was amid this wreckage of the Inca political structure that Pizarro and his crew of roughnecks made their way to Cuzco and plundered its treasures. He met no serious military resistance.

That lack of military resistance on the part of the Inca state was only tangentially down to Pizarro's violent kidnapping of Atahualpa. The real causes were political dysfunction caused by the interrelated factors of a violent civil war and a debilitating smallpox epidemic that killed c.40% of the exposed population in the initial wave (subsequent 16th-century death tolls were caused by measles and typhus epidemics).

I think people see the what if there was no smallpox and no civil war counter factual as the equivalent of, what if the Americans didn't have the Bomb in WWII or maybe what if the Americans didn't join WWII. Really, it seems to be a much bigger factor, and we don't have that much information about it. Compared to WWII, we don't have as much information about the size, strength, population and political situation of the Incan Empire.

I think it is fair to say that Pizarro would have probably lost because the disease played such a big role in his victory. It is hard to rule out every single scenario that could have led to victory for Pizarro. Maybe he could have allied with discontents and launched a coup, and there probably isn't any evidence on how he would do that.

Personally, I find the idea of an Inca state surviving and modernizing a lot more romantic than the story of men with guns and armor beating stone age warriors. If Pizarro failed, then the analogy for what happens to South America becomes Africa and modern imperialism, not Cold War Vietnam, like some suggest.

[Salus Maior]

Spain would still win in the long-term, whether through late conquest in the 19th century or after playing various factions against each other in a divide and conquer strategy. Without the disease though, millions would survive. Who knows, maybe a Republic of the Inca would exist today after winning independence in the 20th century.

I mean, the majority of people in Peru today are of native descent. So, Peru basically is that.

[Berhakonia]

I never managed it in EU4, but I'm sure it's possible for a better player.

---

Having played Skyrim, I see no reason that horses should have any difficulty with that terrain.

Theoretically, Incans could hold out and get to Imperial Age too. They just have to hard-turtle.

Since Spain has to come over in ships, Incans should have more time to mine and collect food, wood, and gold and to do tech research.

Muh history is just like a vidya game

[Cetacea]

Not to mention fighting in a very large, primarily alpine semi-arid semi-tropical environment is like 8 different military disasters rolled up into one. It's a miracle that the invasion of the Inca even worked at all!

I think that the people who are dismissing the technological superiority are wrong, but the problem the Spanish had is getting the troops there. There is a minimum number of troops that would be needed to occupy it, even if there was no organized resistance. Here is where the political aspect comes into play. The Spanish could conquer the Incas, in part because it was a state. There was some structure to take over. That is part of the reason why, some armies won be conquering the capital, or why military coups, where a small amount of troops can sieze control of a w.

Matchlocks werent actually that good in the new world, they were devestating when they fire but because they had a slow reload and needed cover of crossbowmen. Moreover crossbows and even guns can be acquired by the Inca - taken from dead spanish soldiers or stolen from Spanish camps - so in a scenario where the natives arent weakened by foreign plagues its quite possible that the Inca would eventually acquire metal weapons too

But yes it was the political structure and social taboos of the Inca that helped defeat them - the Spanish just needed to capture and kill the king

[Wallenburg]

Spain would still win in the long-term, whether through late conquest in the 19th century or after playing various factions against each other in a divide and conquer strategy. Without the disease though, millions would survive. Who knows, maybe a Republic of the Inca would exist today after winning independence in the 20th century.

I mean, the majority of people in Peru today are of native descent. So, Peru basically is that.

Only 25% of Peruvians consider themselves indigenous.

[Salus Maior]

I mean, the majority of people in Peru today are of native descent. So, Peru basically is that.

Only 25% of Peruvians consider themselves indigenous.

Considering themselves something and having genetic descent are two different things.

[Infected Mushroom]

I think this scenario ought to include a decisive face-off at Machu Picchu. Some kind of a pitched battle where both Pizarro and Atahualpa would fight and duel in the very middle of clashing armies. And tons of reinforcements would arrive from both sides. It should start to rain heavily too so it gets really muddy and messed up as all the soldiers hack and shoot at each other en masse.

[Heloin]

I think this scenario ought to include a decisive face-off at Machu Picchu. Some kind of a pitched battle where both Pizarro and Atahualpa would fight and duel in the very middle of clashing armies. And tons of reinforcements would arrive from both sides. It should start to rain heavily too so it gets really muddy and messed up as all the soldiers hack and shoot at each other en masse.

Three points. One, the Spanish never found Machu Picchu. Two, I'm unsure that what you think the importance of Machu Picchu is but it's not like an Inca capital or even a city of notable size, it was a small citadel in the mountains. And three, what the fuck are you talking about?

[HISPIDA]

Only 25% of Peruvians consider themselves indigenous.

Considering themselves something and having genetic descent are two different things.

A notable amount of Japanese consider themselves Ainu despite the modern Ainu population only being around 25,000.