Ethiopian Civil War and Humanitarian Crisis

[Punished UMN]

Colonel Awol Yasin, head of the Ethiopian Military Eastern Command reported to been captured by Tigrayan forces in Afar State

This is one of those situations where I really wish I knew more about the contemporary domestic political situation in Ethiopia. To me it looks like Ethiopia as a state is unravelling rapidly after the defeat in Tigray, but I don't feel confident enough in my knowledge of Ethiopian politics to really comment.

[Kowani]

Colonel Awol Yasin, head of the Ethiopian Military Eastern Command reported to been captured by Tigrayan forces in Afar State

This is one of those situations where I really wish I knew more about the contemporary domestic political situation in Ethiopia. To me it looks like Ethiopia as a state is unravelling rapidly after the defeat in Tigray, but I don't feel confident enough in my knowledge of Ethiopian politics to really comment.

i...actually don't know enough to say
the state apparatus seems to be at least semi-functional but the military arm of it is definitely reeling

[Punished UMN]

This is one of those situations where I really wish I knew more about the contemporary domestic political situation in Ethiopia. To me it looks like Ethiopia as a state is unravelling rapidly after the defeat in Tigray, but I don't feel confident enough in my knowledge of Ethiopian politics to really comment.

i...actually don't know enough to say
the state apparatus seems to be at least semi-functional but the military arm of it is definitely reeling

Given the instability of politics in the country and the famine situation there since last year though, I wonder if the state apparatus can survive a series of rapid and major military defeats. Even stable states have been swept away by as much. I'm not sure what the situation for Tigrayan forces is, but if the Ethiopian army can't stop them, then it kind of depends how much of Ethiopia they can seize before their supply situation makes further advance impossible, but the damage could still be done and Ethiopia become a failed state.

[Kowani]

i...actually don't know enough to say
the state apparatus seems to be at least semi-functional but the military arm of it is definitely reeling

Given the instability of politics in the country and the famine situation there since last year though, I wonder if the state apparatus can survive a series of rapid and major military defeats. Even stable states have been swept away by as much. I'm not sure what the situation for Tigrayan forces is, but if the Ethiopian army can't stop them, then it kind of depends how much of Ethiopia they can seize before their supply situation makes further advance impossible, but the damage could still be done and Ethiopia become a failed state.

oh it probably can't
and while Gen. Tsadkan wanted to frame this as the TPLF responding to ethiopian aggression, the recent expansion of the conflict into afar state means that any hope it'll just be confined to tigray seems...woefully naive

[Immortan Khan]

Given the instability of politics in the country and the famine situation there since last year though, I wonder if the state apparatus can survive a series of rapid and major military defeats. Even stable states have been swept away by as much. I'm not sure what the situation for Tigrayan forces is, but if the Ethiopian army can't stop them, then it kind of depends how much of Ethiopia they can seize before their supply situation makes further advance impossible, but the damage could still be done and Ethiopia become a failed state.

oh it probably can't
and while Gen. Tsadkan wanted to frame this as the TPLF responding to ethiopian aggression, the recent expansion of the conflict into afar state means that any hope it'll just be confined to tigray seems...woefully naive

Why would the Tigrayans confine the conflict to just Tigray? Especially in light of continued blocking of humanitarian access to the region?

[Kowani]

oh it probably can't
and while Gen. Tsadkan wanted to frame this as the TPLF responding to ethiopian aggression, the recent expansion of the conflict into afar state means that any hope it'll just be confined to tigray seems...woefully naive

Why would the Tigrayans confine the conflict to just Tigray? Especially in light of continued blocking of humanitarian access to the region?

well, they wouldn't
that was the point i was making-

[Ethel mermania]

anddddddddddd it's spreading, to the neighbouring state of Afar

As long as it doesn't come Anear we should be ok.

[Kowani]

3 more regions (Oromiya, Sidama, and the Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples’ Region) pile on

Three more Ethiopian regions are sending soldiers to reinforce the national army in its fight against forces from the Northern Region of Tigray, Regional Officials said, Widening a conflict that has so far largely affected the North.

Officials from Oromiya, Sidama, and the Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples’ Region said their forces had joined the army, known as the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF), which withdrew from most of Tigray late in June.

A fourth region, Amhara, has already been locked in conflict with Tigray since the war erupted in November. Both Amhara and Tigray claim the fertile fields of western and southern Tigray.

In the past week, Tigrayan forces have retaken much of the south, but the west is heavily militarised.

Western Tigray has long been home to large populations of both Tigrayans and Amhara, and fresh fighting in the area could drive another wave of refugees from a conflict that has already forced 2 million from their homes.

“We have already deployed our special forces and they will join ENDF. Our people will also support with materials. It is the ENDF that is in charge where the special forces will be deployed,” said Oromiya Region spokesperson Getachew Balcha.

“If needed we will deploy more,” he told Reuters.

The Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples’ Region also confirmed it sent soldiers.

“Close to 300 to 400 special forces were sent this week. I think they will be deployed on the western front,” said an official from the region’s communications office on condition of anonymity.
A Sidama official who did not want to be named also confirmed the region’s forces had gone to reinforce the national army.

Pictures posted on the state-run regional Amhara Media Corporation showed soldiers from Sidama posing with residents of the town of Debre Markos in Amhara.

This month, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed told parliament Ethiopia could mobilise about 100,000 soldiers from regional special forces in less than a week.
His remarks signalled an end to the government’s unilateral ceasefire, announced as troops pulled out of Tigray’s capital Mekelle. Tigrayan leaders derided the ceasefire as a way to cover up battlefield losses and the capture of thousands of prisoners of war. read more

Tigray’s ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), has said it will continue to fight until it restores Tigray’s pre-war boundaries and the government stops blockading the region. Currently most routes into Tigray are blocked and only one convoy of food aid has been allowed in.

[Fahran]

This could contribute to the conflict becoming even more ethnic in its character than it is at present.

[Kowani]

This could contribute to the conflict becoming even more ethnic in its character than it is at present.

and it's only getting worse

Ethiopia's Amhara region on Sunday called on all armed residents to mobilise for battle against rebels from conflict-hit Tigray, calling it a "survival campaign", state media reported.

Amhara borders Tigray to the south, and the two regions are embroiled in a decades-old land dispute that has become central to the eight-month-old war in Tigray.

Sunday's statement from Amhara regional president Agegnehu Teshager echoes a call made Friday by the president of Ethiopia's Afar region just east of Tigray.

Together the two statements highlight the potential for the Tigray war, which Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared all but over in late November, to draw in the rest of the country.

"Starting from tomorrow (Monday), I call on all people of age who are armed either at governmental or private level to mobilise for a survival campaign," Agegnehu said.

[Salus Maior]

This could contribute to the conflict becoming even more ethnic in its character than it is at present.

and it's only getting worse

Ethiopia's Amhara region on Sunday called on all armed residents to mobilise for battle against rebels from conflict-hit Tigray, calling it a "survival campaign", state media reported.

Amhara borders Tigray to the south, and the two regions are embroiled in a decades-old land dispute that has become central to the eight-month-old war in Tigray.

Sunday's statement from Amhara regional president Agegnehu Teshager echoes a call made Friday by the president of Ethiopia's Afar region just east of Tigray.

Together the two statements highlight the potential for the Tigray war, which Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared all but over in late November, to draw in the rest of the country.

"Starting from tomorrow (Monday), I call on all people of age who are armed either at governmental or private level to mobilise for a survival campaign," Agegnehu said.

Was it worth it, Ahmed?

[Kowani]

insert profanity here

It seems we have a second theatre, in the Sitti-Somali region.
Local citizens are blocking the roads and railroads near Dire Dawa, which also happens to be how Ethiopia conducts 95% of it's maritime trade. Djibouti troops are now being sent to the border (because Ethiopia's landlocked, the trade goes through Djibouti's ports

Why the explosion here? Well, the Afar militias that were called up pretty much went on a rampage and killed dozens of people in the region

[Hhurria]

Ethiopia needs to be split up. ASAP. South-Sudan style.

[Vikanias]

Excuse me but why haven’t I heard about this?

[Hhurria]

Vikanias, are you by any chance an American? American media have a bad reputation when it comes to reporting on anything to the east of the Atlantic, especially when it is also to the south of the Mediterranian.

[Vikanias]

Vikanias, are you by any chance an American? American media have a bad reputation when it comes to reporting on anything to the east of the Atlantic, especially when it is also to the south of the Mediterranian.

No I’m Canadian, but I never heard about this, Usually the Canadian news gobble crap up like it’s nothing.

[Kowani]

insert profanity here

It seems we have a second theatre, in the Sitti-Somali region.
Local citizens are blocking the roads and railroads near Dire Dawa, which also happens to be how Ethiopia conducts 95% of it's maritime trade. Djibouti troops are now being sent to the border (because Ethiopia's landlocked, the trade goes through Djibouti's ports

Why the explosion here? Well, the Afar militias that were called up pretty much went on a rampage and killed dozens of people in the region

The Somali regional troops and Afar regional forces are now fighting

[Perikuresu]

insert profanity here

It seems we have a second theatre, in the Sitti-Somali region.
Local citizens are blocking the roads and railroads near Dire Dawa, which also happens to be how Ethiopia conducts 95% of it's maritime trade. Djibouti troops are now being sent to the border (because Ethiopia's landlocked, the trade goes through Djibouti's ports

Why the explosion here? Well, the Afar militias that were called up pretty much went on a rampage and killed dozens of people in the region

The Somali regional troops and Afar regional forces are now fighting

The first comment I see on here: "Is this the beginning of Ethiopian balkanisation?" (but balkanisation is misspelt)

[Sungoldy-China]

Although Ethiopia is the oldest country on the African continent,
Ethiopia’s borders do not seem to be divided by the ethnic groups in it,
leading to the current war.

Let us see if Yugoslavia in Africa was born，

It's sad to see this once the most promising African country fall to this point.

[Conservative Republic Of Huang]

insert profanity here

It seems we have a second theatre, in the Sitti-Somali region.
Local citizens are blocking the roads and railroads near Dire Dawa, which also happens to be how Ethiopia conducts 95% of it's maritime trade. Djibouti troops are now being sent to the border (because Ethiopia's landlocked, the trade goes through Djibouti's ports

Why the explosion here? Well, the Afar militias that were called up pretty much went on a rampage and killed dozens of people in the region

The Somali regional troops and Afar regional forces are now fighting

Hopefully this will lead to independence for the Somalis in Ethiopia.

[Kowani]

Unconfirmed reports that the Oromo Liberation Army has captured the capital of West Guji Zone, Bule Hora (yeah ethiopia seems to be in a bit of a collapse rn if true)

[Senkaku]

Unconfirmed reports that the Oromo Liberation Army has captured the capital of West Guji Zone, Bule Hora (yeah ethiopia seems to be in a bit of a collapse rn if true)

so when are we getting the PM his second Peace Prize?

[Fahran]

It's sad to see this once the most promising African country fall to this point.

It's not especially surprising though given how Ethiopia was formed and the historic ethnic hierarchies that have been present in the country. Honestly, I wouldn't really have considered Ethiopia that promising. The Derg did a real number on the country between the abolition of the monarchy and systemic mismanagement and corruption.

[Heloin]

Unconfirmed reports that the Oromo Liberation Army has captured the capital of West Guji Zone, Bule Hora (yeah ethiopia seems to be in a bit of a collapse rn if true)

Maybe, just maybe, encouraging ethnic strife in an attempt to mobilise militias against the Tigrinya wasn't a good idea.

[Great Algerstonia]

Ethiopia needs to either negotiate or crush the rebellions quickly if the state wants to survive. Urgent action is needed to preserve the Ethiopian state.