Afghan Conflict: Iran, Taliban Clashes Appear to Subside

[Shekelesh]

Oh great, more pro-Taliban terrorist sympathizers. I guess they really are more tech savvy this time around. Didn't they ban the internet, television, and cell phones in 2001?

Who is this directed to and why?

I think it's being directed at you my guy.

[A White Africa]

NRF Calls on Afghans in Norway to Join Norwegian Protests Against Taliban

surely the NRF has bigger priorities

For the portion of the diaspora which supports it? No, that's absolutely how I would ask them to field themselves. Keep the wall of separation up as long as possible so that if the $9 billion pot gets unfrozen, it goes into the coffers of aid organizations rather than the emirate itself. That, and keep the official foreign recognitions down at zero for a long as possible.

[Nociav]

surely the NRF has bigger priorities

For the portion of the diaspora which supports it? No, that's absolutely how I would ask them to field themselves. Keep the wall of separation up as long as possible so that if the $9 billion pot gets unfrozen, it goes into the coffers of aid organizations rather than the emirate itself. That, and keep the official foreign recognitions down at zero for a long as possible.

As explained here, it should not go to aid groups.

[Insaanistan]

2 Talibs Killed in Samangan, a Hotspot of Taliban-NRF Clashes; No one has yet Claimed Responsibility as Taliban Blame it on Misunderstanding

[Insaanistan]

NRF: 31 Talibs & 5 NRF Fighters Have Just Been Killed in Baghlan, Taliban Taking Their Anger out on Civilians

[Incelastan]

Karzai meets with Russian ambassador to "strengthen ties between the two countries".

Karzai is in Taliban super-position. He's both not Taliban and he works for the Taliban.

He's Schrodinger's Afghan now.

[Rusozak]

For the portion of the diaspora which supports it? No, that's absolutely how I would ask them to field themselves. Keep the wall of separation up as long as possible so that if the $9 billion pot gets unfrozen, it goes into the coffers of aid organizations rather than the emirate itself. That, and keep the official foreign recognitions down at zero for a long as possible.

As explained here, it should not go to aid groups.

And what is the alternative, it goes straight to the Taliban? They're not exactly humanitarian in nature. Not one bit of those funds would actually go to helping the Afghan people.

[A White Africa]

For the portion of the diaspora which supports it? No, that's absolutely how I would ask them to field themselves. Keep the wall of separation up as long as possible so that if the $9 billion pot gets unfrozen, it goes into the coffers of aid organizations rather than the emirate itself. That, and keep the official foreign recognitions down at zero for a long as possible.

As explained here, it should not go to aid groups.

Fella makes a decent case for $150 million monthly deposits to Da Afghanistan Bank....that's five years by my math to get it all back. ​Immediate return of even $1 billion is out of the question for me; need leverage over the emirate. At that point, I'd rather see it go to the families of 9/11 victims, if anything.

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

As explained here, it should not go to aid groups.

Fella makes a decent case for $150 million monthly deposits to Da Afghanistan Bank....that's five years by my math to get it all back. ​Immediate return of even $1 billion is out of the question for me; need leverage over the emirate. At that point, I'd rather see it go to the families of 9/11 victims, if anything.

given that it's the Afghan National Bank it's probs bonds written to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan... which no longer exists. <.<

[Nociav]

As explained here, it should not go to aid groups.

And what is the alternative, it goes straight to the Taliban? They're not exactly humanitarian in nature. Not one bit of those funds would actually go to helping the Afghan people.

Those funds are supposed to back the currency and give it liquidity. Releasing those reserves will stabilise the economy. The Taliban haven't meddled in DAB's internal affairs and have kept most of its staffing the same as they found it. The Taliban don't get to take the money from DAB either since DAB still keeps a degree of independence from the Government. Handing it off to aid groups kills any chance of an economic recovery.

[Nociav]

As explained here, it should not go to aid groups.

Fella makes a decent case for $150 million monthly deposits to Da Afghanistan Bank....that's five years by my math to get it all back. ​Immediate return of even $1 billion is out of the question for me; need leverage over the emirate. At that point, I'd rather see it go to the families of 9/11 victims, if anything.

The Taliban will always avoid the brunt of it. Regular Afghans will suffer the worst of it. The Taliban can blame the US for Afghanistan's economic free fall and they'll be believed since it's the US who keeps the reserves frozen.

[A White Africa]

The Taliban will always avoid the brunt of it. Regular Afghans will suffer the worst of it. The Taliban can blame the US for Afghanistan's economic free fall and they'll be believed since it's the US who keeps the reserves frozen.

Definitely a sad reality. I would make the case that the Taliban should've had Kabul under siege and administered the rest of the country until a surrender and transition agreement were hammered out.

The Bolsheviks also struggled with a lack of recognition in the wider world; took until 1924 for Fascist Italy to become the first Western country to recognize them, and until 1933 for Roosevelt's USA to do the same.

My concern, even if we went with the $150m/mth approach, is that should the Taliban start skimming from or wholesale lifting those payments from DAB, the response would need to be to return to a full asset freeze. Then, we'd be back to the same dire straits Afghans are in right now, but the emirate's nabbed a little money to perpetuate itself.

So I'd suggest that should the US Treasury, or whoever would monitor these payments, come across any Taliban pilfering from DAB, the monthly payments be made to the NRF instead.

[Nociav]

The Taliban will always avoid the brunt of it. Regular Afghans will suffer the worst of it. The Taliban can blame the US for Afghanistan's economic free fall and they'll be believed since it's the US who keeps the reserves frozen.

Definitely a sad reality. I would make the case that the Taliban should've had Kabul under siege and administered the rest of the country until a surrender and transition agreement were hammered out.

The Bolsheviks also struggled with a lack of recognition in the wider world; took until 1924 for Fascist Italy to become the first Western country to recognize them, and until 1933 for Roosevelt's USA to do the same.

My concern, even if we went with the $150m/mth approach, is that should the Taliban start skimming from or wholesale lifting those payments from DAB, the response would need to be to return to a full asset freeze. Then, we'd be back to the same dire straits Afghans are in right now, but the emirate's nabbed a little money to perpetuate itself.

So I'd suggest that should the US Treasury, or whoever would monitor these payments, come across any Taliban pilfering from DAB, the monthly payments be made to the NRF instead.

Sure it should be monitored and if the Taliban begin embezzling then it should be halted. It should not, under any circumstance, go to the NRF. None of the money that goes to the NRF will even tangentially benefit Afghans.

After all:

The NRF doesn't need any money.

[A White Africa]

Sure it should be monitored and if the Taliban begin embezzling then it should be halted. It should not, under any circumstance, go to the NRF. None of the money that goes to the NRF will even tangentially benefit Afghans.

After all:

The NRF doesn't need any money.

My reasoning for having the money go to the NRF in that instance is that there needs to be a stronger consequence for misconduct than "the good thing will stop happening". Just like during the Doha negotiations, I was shaking my head and asking what exactly would be the downside should they not comply....the Taliban have benefitted from 20 years of never feeling that the wrong move will incur serious jeopardy to them. Just roadblocks to be overcome with time.

Even if we put the money to aid organizations instead, in that instance, how long would it be until we return to this conversation? "Yea, the Taliban used some of it to buy arms & fuel, but some still went towards bank liquidity, so overall, it was a net gain to Afghans and is better for their future". Not to mention the invariable controversies over the facts when (not if) the day comes that allegations of embezzlement are raised.

If the NRF doesn't, or can't, use the funds for constituent welfare, then they'd just be no better than the Taliban (in the instance of embezzlement by the latter). But at least this way, there'd be an actual deterrent for once; "Things will be worse for you than before if you act wrongly".

[Nociav]

Sure it should be monitored and if the Taliban begin embezzling then it should be halted. It should not, under any circumstance, go to the NRF. None of the money that goes to the NRF will even tangentially benefit Afghans.

After all:

My reasoning for having the money go to the NRF in that instance is that there needs to be a stronger consequence for misconduct than "the good thing will stop happening". Just like during the Doha negotiations, I was shaking my head and asking what exactly would be the downside should they not comply....the Taliban have benefitted from 20 years of never feeling that the wrong move will incur serious jeopardy to them. Just roadblocks to be overcome with time.

Even if we put the money to aid organizations instead, in that instance, how long would it be until we return to this conversation? "Yea, the Taliban used some of it to buy arms & fuel, but some still went towards bank liquidity, so overall, it was a net gain to Afghans and is better for their future". Not to mention the invariable controversies over the facts when (not if) the day comes that allegations of embezzlement are raised.

If the NRF doesn't, or can't, use the funds for constituent welfare, then they'd just be no better than the Taliban (in the instance of embezzlement by the latter). But at least this way, there'd be an actual deterrent for once; "Things will be worse for you than before if you act wrongly".

Punishing the Taliban is one thing. But remember, these reserves belong to DAB and they're supposed to back the currency and economy. Handing it over to anyone else will cripple the economy for years, if not decades. You can read here how bad the situation is right now:

https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en ... -like-now/

https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en ... truggling/

[A White Africa]

Punishing the Taliban is one thing. But remember, these reserves belong to DAB and they're supposed to back the currency and economy. Handing it over to anyone else will cripple the economy for years, if not decades. You can read here how bad the situation is right now:

https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en ... -like-now/

https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en ... truggling/

I certainly respect that. We are speaking, though, about the hypothetical of DAB being treated by the emirate as their piggy bank to smash at whim (sorry, I meant after a closed door "discussion with scholars" without any transcripts released). If that happens, then that very institution underpinning Afghan finance will have turned out to be a front business for a jihadist narco-cabal. Under duress, sure, but for all intents and purposes. The scenario you fear will have already come to pass.

At that point, it's down to refreezing what's left (until we're back to arguing whether it's STILL WORTH funding DAB in spite of subservience to embezzlers), disbursing the remainder to aid orgs, or handing it off to a competitor with a better ideological regard (at least on paper) for what we're looking for.

At least spelling out an NRF award as a consequence ahead of time will give them Talibs something to dwell on should they find themselves getting thirsty for a panty raid at DAB.

[Insaanistan]

Taliban Have Reportedly Killed at Least 100 People Supposed to be Protected Under Promise of Amnesty; Antonio Guterres Acknowledges NRF-Taliban Clashes Occur Regularly in the Country

[TheFlyingDutchman]

Taliban Have Reportedly Killed at Least 100 People Supposed to be Protected Under Promise of Amnesty; Antonio Guterres Acknowledges NRF-Taliban Clashes Occur Regularly in the Country

A terrorist organization ruling a country through terror? Surprising.

[Insaanistan]

“Stop the Resistance & Don’t Make Panjshir Insecure”:A Day After Tweeting There is No Anti-Taliban Resistance in the Country & Panjshiris are Cooperating with the Taliban, Taliban Official Pleads with the Panjshiri NRF to Stop Fighting

[Rusozak]

Taliban Have Reportedly Killed at Least 100 People Supposed to be Protected Under Promise of Amnesty; Antonio Guterres Acknowledges NRF-Taliban Clashes Occur Regularly in the Country

A terrorist organization ruling a country through terror? Surprising.

They're basically a street gang with military equipment and political control over a country. Even if the leaders do make a promise in good faith (Not saying they did) the ravenous mob they call their enforcers still have a mind of their own. It's pointless to even consider any deal with the Taliban.

[Daniel-Franklin]

“Stop the Resistance & Don’t Make Panjshir Insecure”:A Day After Tweeting There is No Anti-Taliban Resistance in the Country & Panjshiris are Cooperating with the Taliban, Taliban Official Pleads with the Panjshiri NRF to Stop Fighting

Oh, the irony. Still think that the war was a mistake, but it is hilarious to see them plead with their enemies not to resist their oppressive regime.

[Nociav]

“Stop the Resistance & Don’t Make Panjshir Insecure”:A Day After Tweeting There is No Anti-Taliban Resistance in the Country & Panjshiris are Cooperating with the Taliban, Taliban Official Pleads with the Panjshiri NRF to Stop Fighting

Oh, the irony. Still think that the war was a mistake, but it is hilarious to see them plead with their enemies not to resist their oppressive regime.

I don't think you know the traditional Afghan way of warfare.

Like the Taliban, Karzai was a Pashtun who respected the same age-old tribal traditions for resolving armed conflicts. Those traditions revolved around demonstrating who was the strongest – using violence if necessary. Once that had become clear and the loser had acknowledged the winner, it was time for various forms of amnesty that would allow the losing group to ‘take part’ again, but in accordance with the new balance of power.

- from "Looking for the Enemy" by Bette Dam

This isn't isn't first time the Taliban have offered surrender either.

[Insaanistan]

Mullah Yaqub Travels Throughout Northern Afghanistan in Attempt to Dissaude People From Resisting After Uzbek-Pashtun Talib Infighting in Faryab & Heavy NRF-Taliban Clashes in Baghlan & Other Parts of the North

[Nociav]

Russian envoy says possibility of large resistance against Taliban in spring. Rules out NRF and says ISKP is the only threat.

[Nociav]

NRFers try to silence critics.

Digital Taliban doing the very thing I expected them to. With no physical resistance, they try to up their digital one.