Afghan Conflict: Russian Political Leader Meets With Massoud

[Fahran]

Thanks Biden.

This somewhat follows the pattern in Iraq as well. A lot of Baathists, barred from employment in the government or military following the coalition toppling of Saddam Hussein and facing retaliation from Shias, joined up with ISIL. I imagine a lot of the Afghans in question are already pretty grounded in Islamic fundamentalism given the prevailing religious beliefs in the region, and joining IS-K offers them an opportunity to escape death and get revenge on their enemies.

[Northern Socialist Council Republics]

Y’know, what with the resurgent threat of totalitarianism and all, it just occurs to me:

This debacle in Afghanistan must be a flaming red flag to President Xi, demonstrating to him in perfect clarity that the United States cannot deal with insurgencies and proxy wars.

There’s a lot of concern about a potential military takeover of Taiwan, but considering that fighting a conventional war against a state-entity is what the United States military has historically shown itself to be very good at, I have to wonder if it would be a more sensible strategy - from Beijing’s perspective - to stir up a diplomatic mess in unstable US-aligned anocracies and have the Americans spend the next two decades chasing after insurgents from Casablanca to Jakarta.

After all, Afghanistan is hardly the only country with cultural and religious values not necessarily compatible with North Atlantic liberalism that hosted a long-term US military presence. There has to be at least another half a dozen potential Afghanistans out there, just waiting for someone to supply a spark.

[Insaanistan]

Massoud Reportedly Moving Frequently Between Tajikistan and Afghanistan

[Kowani]

no more refugees remain at the Ramestein Airbase in Germany

[The V I C]

From Afghan Army to ISIS

Some former members of Afghanistan’s U.S.-trained intelligence service and elite military units—now abandoned by their American patrons and hunted by the Taliban—have enlisted in the only force currently challenging the country’s new rulers: Islamic State.
The number of defectors joining the terrorist group is relatively small, but growing, according to people who know these men, to former Afghan security officials and to the Taliban. Importantly, these new recruits bring to Islamic State critical expertise in intelligence-gathering and warfare techniques, potentially strengthening the extremist organization’s ability to contest Taliban supremacy.
An Afghan national army officer who commanded the military’s weapons and ammunition depot in Gardez, the capital of southeastern Paktia province, joined the extremist group’s regional affiliate, Islamic State-Khorasan Province, and was killed a week ago in a clash with Taliban fighters, according to a former Afghan official who knew him.
The former official said several other men he knew, all members of the former Afghan republic’s intelligence and military, also joined Islamic State after the Taliban searched their homes and demanded that they present themselves to the country’s new authorities.
A resident of Qarabagh district just north of Kabul said his cousin, a former senior member of Afghanistan’s special forces, disappeared in September and was now part of an Islamic State cell. Four other members of the Afghan national army that the man knew have enlisted in the group, also known as ISIS-K, in recent weeks, he said.
“In some areas, ISIS has become very attractive” to former members of Afghan security and defense forces “who have been left behind,” said Rahmatullah Nabil, a former head of Afghanistan’s spy agency, the National Directorate of Security, who left the country shortly before the Taliban takeover. “If there were a resistance, they would have joined the resistance.” But, he said: “For the time being, ISIS is the only other armed group.” Taliban forces in early September stamped out a nascent resistance movement in the Panjshir valley led by Ahmad Massoud, a son of anti-Taliban commander Ahmad Shah Massoud who was assassinated by al Qaeda in 2001. Resistance leaders then fled abroad.
The Taliban have long alleged that Islamic State-Khorasan Province was a creation of Afghanistan’s intelligence service and the U.S. that aimed to sow division within the Islamist insurgency, a claim denied by Washington and by Kabul’s former government.
Hundreds of thousands of former Afghan republic intelligence officers, soldiers and police personnel are unemployed and afraid for their lives despite pledges of amnesty from the Taliban. Only a fraction of them, mostly in the National Directorate of Security, have returned to work under Taliban supervision. Like nearly all other Afghan government employees, they haven’t been paid for months.
“It’s exactly how it started in Iraq—with disenchanted Saddam Hussein generals,” a senior Western official warned. “You have to be careful.” The U.S. disbanded Iraq’s security forces after the 2003 invasion of the country. Often with weapons stashed at home and with years of combat expertise, they provided a ready pool of recruits for militant groups, including al Qaeda and the precursor of Islamic State.
In addition to protection from the Taliban, Islamic State is offering significant amounts of cash to its new members in Afghanistan, security officials say. In recent Senate testimony, Colin Kahl, U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy, warned that Islamic State in Afghanistan could generate the capacity to attack the West and allies within six to 12 months.
While the Taliban are highly motivated to go after Islamic State, he added, “Their ability to do so, I think, is to be determined.”
[...]
The group killed 200 Afghans and 13 members of the U.S. armed forces at Kabul airport in August, and has since then carried out a spate of attacks on the Taliban, mostly in the eastern province of Nangarhar, but now increasingly often in Kabul. The group also claimed responsibility for bombing Shiite mosques in the cities of Kunduz and Kandahar in October. Those attacks killed well over 100 worshipers.
While the U.S. has begun providing some intelligence on Islamic State to the Taliban, Taliban officials are loath to admit that cooperation and generally dismiss the severity of Islamic State’s challenge.
“We are not faced with a threat nor are we worried about them,” said Mawlawi Zubair, a senior Taliban commander whose 750 men oversee southwestern Kabul and who operates out of the capital’s third police district headquarters. “There is no need, not even a tiny need, for us to seek assistance from anyone against ISIS.”
The area under his supervision includes the Kabul zoo, where a man believed to be an Islamic State militant recently threw a hand grenade into a crowd of Taliban foot soldiers. Former members of the Afghan security forces are “100%” involved in such Islamic State attacks, Mr. Zubair said.
He said Islamic State is also feeding on growing resentment over the country’s economic meltdown that followed the Taliban’s Aug. 15 takeover.
“In the current situation, we are not dealing with a few difficulties, we are facing many,” Mr. Zubair said. “If we get rid of all our economic and administrative problems, ISIS will disappear in 15 days in all of Afghanistan.”

What the hell?? But THAT'S EVEN WORSE.

[Evil Wolf]

From Afghan Army to ISIS

Let us also not forget that it's in the Taliban's best interests to paint every attack against them as being carried out by "ISIS/Daesh terrorists" both for propaganda purposes and to scare and panic the West into idiotically supporting the Taliban, who are themselves a terrorist group.

The guy who threw a grenade into a crowd of Taliban, for example, was described as Daesh by the Taliban with basically no evidence other than "they're killing Taliban, therefore they must be Daesh, can't be anyone else". This is a trap to guilt westerner governments into giving financial and political support to the Taliban, a group of ethnic cleansing fascists.

Let us also not forget that Daesh-K splintered out of the Taliban itself and that Daesh, as a whole, splintered out of the Taliban's good buddy Al-Qaeda. Are there now former ANA in Daesh? Probably. Are there more former-ANA anti-Taliban fighters outside of Daesh than inside Daesh? Most likely. Are the Taliban going to claim all the ANA joined Daesh and every attack against the Taliban is by Daesh? Already happening.

[Herador]

From Afghan Army to ISIS

Let us also not forget that it's in the Taliban's best interests to paint every attack against them as being carried out by "ISIS/Daesh terrorists" both for propaganda purposes and to scare and panic the West into idiotically supporting the Taliban, who are themselves a terrorist group.

The guy who threw a grenade into a crowd of Taliban, for example, was described as Daesh by the Taliban with basically no evidence other than "they're killing Taliban, therefore they must be Daesh, can't be anyone else". This is a trap to guilt westerner governments into giving financial and political support to the Taliban, a group of ethnic cleansing fascists.

Honestly hadn't considered that. Do we have reliable info on what the IS' numbers are in country? Even if it's just a ballpark?

[Evil Wolf]

Honestly hadn't considered that. Do we have reliable info on what the IS' numbers are in country? Even if it's just a ballpark?

Low end estimates of 1,000 fighters, highest estimates put them at 10,000. Although, those numbers are old and I am sure their ranks have swollen given the collapse of the Islamic Republic and the rise of the Taliban. How many of those new people are really true believers verse just want to kill Taliban is anyone's guess.

That being said, the NRF supposedly had/has 8,000+ fighters, so I find it very interesting that the Taliban claim to be able to defeat 8,000 NRF fighters in like a month (which they didn't but let's not let the truth get in the way of a good narrative), but a Daesh force of 10,000 fighters (again, that's a very generous estimate) are just suddenly everywhere and attacking the Taliban all across the country. Seems very strange.

[Nora Xent]

Honestly hadn't considered that. Do we have reliable info on what the IS' numbers are in country? Even if it's just a ballpark?

Low end estimates of 1,000 fighters, highest estimates put them at 10,000. Although, those numbers are old and I am sure their ranks have swollen given the collapse of the Islamic Republic and the rise of the Taliban. How many of those new people are really true believers verse just want to kill Taliban is anyone's guess.

That being said, the NRF supposedly had/has 8,000+ fighters, so I find it very interesting that the Taliban claim to be able to defeat 8,000 NRF fighters in like a month (which they didn't but let's not let the truth get in the way of a good narrative), but a Daesh force of 10,000 fighters (again, that's a very generous estimate) are just suddenly everywhere and attacking the Taliban all across the country. Seems very strange.

Was Russia in like, 2017 claiming that there were 10,000 ISIS militants? and last I checked, Russia was not the Taliban.

[Evil Wolf]

Was Russia in like, 2017 claiming that there were 10,000 ISIS militants? and last I checked, Russia was not the Taliban.

I never claimed that the Taliban was Russia, but it's probably in the Taliban's best interest to use Russia's estimates, considering they're getting hammered by so called Daesh just all over the place, and their narrative of "It was Daesh, I swears it!" falls apart if you use the low end US estimate of 1,000 fighters.

Most likely these are not Daesh, these are merely new anti-Taliban groups, lone wolves, and just other militias in general. If the Taliban can successfully claim they're "Daesh-K", however, maybe they can fool the West into giving them some of that sweet, sweet anti-terrorism money so the Taliban can just fork it over to Al-Qaeda and they can stage another attack on the US.

Oh! Bonus round, maybe the Taliban can then claim after that attack that it wasn't Al-Qaeda, but a splinter group of Al-Qaeda, which are really affiliated with Daesh-K. I mean, if you're going to lie, lie big.

[Nora Xent]

Was Russia in like, 2017 claiming that there were 10,000 ISIS militants? and last I checked, Russia was not the Taliban.

I never claimed that the Taliban was Russia, but it's probably in the Taliban's best interest to use Russia's estimates, considering they're getting hammered by so called Daesh just all over the place, and their narrative of "It was Daesh, I swears it!" falls apart if you use the low end US estimate of 1,000 fighters.

Most likely these are not Daesh, these are merely new anti-Taliban groups, lone wolves, and just other militias in general. If the Taliban can successfully claim they're "Daesh-K", however, maybe they can fool the West into giving them some of that sweet, sweet anti-terrorism money so the Taliban can just fork it over to Al-Qaeda and they can stage another attack on the US.

I am going to play devil's advocate, what other choice do these people have? the US and it's allies have abandoned them, NRF's leaders have fled the country and it looks like they are going to be defeated, the taliban probably wants their head. So what other choices other than ISIS-K do they have?

[Evil Wolf]

I am going to play devil's advocate, what other choice do these people have? the US and it's allies have abandoned them, NRF's leaders have fled the country and it looks like they are going to be defeated, the taliban probably wants their head. So what other choices other than ISIS-K do they have?

One of about a dozen anti-Taliban militias which have sprung up all across the country. Like I said, these people likely are not Daesh at all, it's just in the Taliban's best interest to call anyone attacking and killing their fighters "Daesh".

Wall Street Journal, as per usual, did not do their due diligence and basically printed a Taliban Propaganda piece because WSJ knows it sounds scary and will therefore sell well, consequences be damned.

[Insaanistan]

As NRF Opens up Office in US, Russia Calls for NRF and Allied Groups to Give up and Lay Down Their Arms

[Insaanistan]

Resistance Spreads as People of Ghor District (Central Afghanistan) Officially Declare Support for the NRF, Pledge to Fight Under Ahmad Massoud

[Fahran]

Regardless of who is beheading Taliban militants, coalition forces have no vested interest in assisting the Taliban in crushing the ongoing insurgency because the Taliban aren't allies and aren't going to form a functional, peaceful government at any point in the near future. They have exacerbated these conditions within their country and have fostered a culture of religious extremism. It's simply too bad that other extremists consider them to be worthy of fighting and killing.

[Galactic Transylvania]

Regardless of who is beheading Taliban militants, coalition forces have no vested interest in assisting the Taliban in crushing the ongoing insurgency because the Taliban aren't allies and aren't going to form a functional, peaceful government at any point in the near future. They have exacerbated these conditions within their country and have fostered a culture of religious extremism. It's simply too bad that other extremists consider them to be worthy of fighting and killing.

This, honestly.

The only case where the Coalition will ever become involved again is if there were a large enough profile attack in a Western Nation, most likely the US.

The odds of that happening, and the odds of re-intervention, occurring after that without some pretty damning evidence that the attackers originated in or were trained in Afghanistan, are fairly low in the immediate future. Beyond that, if it did happen the Taliban would be seen as part of the problem, and likely made an enemy again.

[Insaanistan]

Taliban’s Bid to be Given Afghanistan’s UN Seat Blocked by “Lack of Legitimacy” Demonstrated by Continued Fighting Against the Resistance

[Insaanistan]

Massoud Traveling Between Afghanistan and Neighboring Nations, Hoping to Gain Allies
Taliban Appoint Relatively Unknown Hazara to Low Position in Attempt to Stop Hazara Resistance From Spreading

[Kowani]

Taliban bans use of foreign currency

[Novus America]

Regardless of who is beheading Taliban militants, coalition forces have no vested interest in assisting the Taliban in crushing the ongoing insurgency because the Taliban aren't allies and aren't going to form a functional, peaceful government at any point in the near future. They have exacerbated these conditions within their country and have fostered a culture of religious extremism. It's simply too bad that other extremists consider them to be worthy of fighting and killing.

Exactly. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” is peak idiocy. Even if the Taliban are fighting an enemy of ours, the Taliban is still an enemy.

Moreover we actually have a vested interest in the Taliban failing. The Taliban failing is beneficial considering how the Russian Federation and various Jihadis (even many other parts of IS interestingly) have celebrated the Taliban victory. The Taliban failing is good for us.

Now of course we should NOT support IS-K just to own the Taliban or RF. We can and should want both sides to lose. But we should not be helping the Taliban against IS-K at all. Let the Taliban fail. We should not be seen as overtly toppling the Taliban, it should be seen they fall from their own failures. Although we could in theory drop in an airborne division and send them fleeing back into hiding in the mountains clearly that is not the best way either. Nor is it politically viable.

But the Taliban should get zero recognition, support or aid from us. Regardless of who they are fighting.

[Nociav]

Imagine justifying ISIS to own it to the Talibs and Russians.

[Northern Socialist Council Republics]

-snip-

So much of international relations is just ‘too bad they can’t both lose.’

[Kowani]

Pentagon decides the drone strike that killed 10 civilians. 7 of whom were children, instead of terrorists, did not violate any law

[Northern Socialist Council Republics]

Pentagon decides the drone strike that killed 10 civilians. 7 of whom were children, instead of terrorists, did not violate any law

...and then people wonder why these people have no great fondness for the United States.

[Insaanistan]

Pentagon decides the drone strike that killed 10 civilians. 7 of whom were children, instead of terrorists, did not violate any law

-Complaint censored-