UK Politics Thread IX: Try turning the UK off and on again.

[Heloin]

Important thing to note about NI Assembly polling, its just for first preference votes. After that its anyone's guess how things will move.

80% for PBP second preference.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Important thing to note about NI Assembly polling, its just for first preference votes. After that its anyone's guess how things will move.

80% for PBP second preference.

Trotskyite Socialism with Northern Irish Characteristics.

[Heloin]

80% for PBP second preference.

Trotskyite Socialism with Northern Irish Characteristics.

The international revolution shall last forever in Doire.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Trotskyite Socialism with Northern Irish Characteristics.

The international revolution shall last forever in Doire.

PBP does actually stand a somewhat realistic chance of winning a seat in Derry which would bring them up to 2 again but there is no guarantee of that due to their vote share stagnating and not moving much. In 2017 they finished behind the DUP for the last seat by about 700 votes so if the DUP or Sinn Fein took a sizable enough hit and PBP retained its votes from then it could win the seat back. No chance anywhere else.

Honestly in Foyle i think its a fair expectation that both the DUP and SF could lose a seat there possibly allowing the SDLP to secure a third if they hold their own vote share there. Remember SF got crushed here in the 2019 GE with their vote share dropping by 19%, the vast majority of which went to the SDLP. Now, different election system so no guarantee it could translate to a greater SDLP success there but SF did enter into a panic mode last year in this area, forcing out their MLA's and replacing them and many others involved in the local party. I think they expect to take a battering there.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Gavin Williamson tied new school funding to party vote, says Tory defector

Bury South MP says former education secretary warned disloyalty over free school meals vote put new high school at risk

Christian Wakeford has accused the former education secretary Gavin Williamson of threatening to withdraw funding for a school if he voted for a motion criticising the government over free school meals.

After crossing the floor to join Labour on Wednesday, the Bury South MP alleged that party whips told him he would lose funding for a new high school in his constituency if he did not vote with the government. At the time, he did not say who was responsible.

Wakeford later identified Williamson, a former chief whip, in an interview with the Sunday Times. Recalling the alleged confrontation, he said Williamson had pulled him out of the House of Commons dining room and told him: “It’s not very helpful to back an opposition [motion] against the department where you’re wanting an extremely large favour from said department, so do consider what you’re doing.”

Wakeford added: “I know the maxim is ‘once a whip, always a whip’, but yeah, that one was Gavin.”

The incident is said to have occurred in October 2020, when MPs were planning to vote on a plan to extend free school meals into the school holidays, a campaign initially spearheaded by England footballer Marcus Rashford.

Wakeford abstained after the alleged conversation with Williamson. The following February, the Department for Education approved plans for a new school in Wakeford’s constituency, one of four new free schools in Greater Manchester.

In response, Williamson told the paper that he did not remember any such conversation taking place with Mr Wakeford. “I don’t have any recollection of the conversation as described but what I do remember is working tirelessly with Christian and others in order to be able to deliver this school, which I did,” he said.

“Such major investment decisions are made after close analysis of the benefits that the investment will bring and certainly not something that can be decided in a brief conversation like the one described.”

The claim comes as William Wragg, the senior Tory who first raised concerns about the intimidatory tactics used by the whips against MPs calling for Boris Johnson to resign, is to meet police to discuss the issue.

Thought this would be interesting to share here.

[Dakini]

It cost £900,000 for Boris Johnson to be officially told no on his stupid bridge idea between NI and Scotland.

Everyone told him no for free but hey why listen to anyone when you can waste money.

I could've done that for 800k.

Ah, but you're not a Tory donor or friend of the PM who can be paid even more to run a consultation at the taxpayer's expense.

[The Archregimancy]

Northern Ireland Assembly Polling:

Interesting as always, thank you Huskar.

It does now look as if SF are locked-in to finish first, with all of the implications that has. But there's still scope for a real battle over second between the DUP, Alliance, and the UUP. One of the key points is that the nationalist vote seems to have largely coalesced around a single party that will win a good two thirds of the nationalist vote, while the unionist vote is split fairly evenly between three separate parties representing different shades of opinion; and meanwhile Alliance continue to grow support as an alternative to community-focused voting. Is that a fair summary?

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but if the UUP agree to nominate an executive with a SF First Minister (presumably either a DUP or UUP Deputy First Minister), then the executive would still need support from at least one of the other unionist parties; the executive needs the support of the majority of both overall MLAs and a majority within both sets of community-affiliated MLAs.

Are the following scenarios more likely than others in your opinion?

SF finishes first; DUP finishes second. DUP decides that seat on the executive is more important than horror at SF finishing second; both DUP and UUP approve executive; potential TUV opposition therefore doesn't matter.

SF finishes first; DUP finishes second. DUP refuses to approve executive, perhaps on pretence that unionist parties won more votes overall than nationalist parties; TUV also opposes formation of executive. Westminster and Dublin have to step in to negotiate solution.

SF finishes first; UUP finishes second. DUP goes into a sulk over finishing third (possibly even fourth), and refuses to approve executive; along with TUV opposition, it becomes impossible to form executive. Westminster and Dublin have to step in to negotiate solution.

SF finishes first; Alliance finishes second. While under St Andrews agreement, highest-placing unionist party still has the right to nominate the Deputy First Minister, unionism goes into a navel-gazing crisis, and legitimacy of Stormont is undercut by inability of the second-largest party in the Assembly to participate in the executive. A seriously dangerous political crisis ensues.

[-Astoria-]

I could've done that for 800k.

Ah, but you're not a Tory donor or friend of the PM who can be paid even more to run a consultation at the taxpayer's expense.

I'll be honest; it'd still look a little cool, albeit monumentally stupid.

[The Huskar Social Union]

It does now look as if SF are locked-in to finish first, with all of the implications that has. But there's still scope for a real battle over second between the DUP, Alliance, and the UUP. One of the key points is that the nationalist vote seems to have largely coalesced around a single party that will win a good two thirds of the nationalist vote, while the unionist vote is split fairly evenly between three separate parties representing different shades of opinion; and meanwhile Alliance continue to grow support as an alternative to community-focused voting. Is that a fair summary?

Yes i would say so.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but if the UUP agree to nominate an executive with a SF First Minister (presumably either a DUP or UUP Deputy First Minister), then the executive would still need support from at least one of the other unionist parties; the executive needs the support of the majority of both overall MLAs and a majority within both sets of community-affiliated MLAs.

Not entirely accurate as far as i can remember. The offices of the FM and DFM are appointed by the largest parties of their respective community designations (and if the largest party of the largest designation is not the largest party overall, then the largest party overall appoints someone to the office of FM). Other parties are not required anymore to take part in the Executive and can instead move into the Opposition, which happened in 2016 when the Alliance party, SDLP and UUP moved into the Opposition, leaving the executive to be formed by the DUP, Sinn Fein and one Independent Unionist MLA,. Claire Sugden, who took the position of Justice Minister, with all other Minister positions being filled by the DUP and Sinn Fein.

So if the UUP was to become the largest Unionist party then im near certain they could appoint someone to the office of DFM and Sinn Fein to the office of FM and they could form an executive even if the DUP and TUV moved into the Opposition and refused to take part in the NI Executive. If they came second though and were still behind the DUP they would not be able to appoint someone to the office of DFM, that would still fall to the DUP and if they refused to do it the Executive collapses.

Are the following scenarios more likely than others in your opinion?

SF finishes first; DUP finishes second. DUP decides that seat on the executive is more important than horror at SF finishing second; both DUP and UUP approve executive; potential TUV opposition therefore doesn't matter.

Unsure, i would say unlikely.

SF finishes first; DUP finishes second. DUP refuses to approve executive, perhaps on pretence that unionist parties won more votes overall than nationalist parties; TUV also opposes formation of executive. Westminster and Dublin have to step in to negotiate solution.

Very likely

SF finishes first; UUP finishes second. DUP goes into a sulk over finishing third (possibly even fourth), and refuses to approve executive; along with TUV opposition, it becomes impossible to form executive. Westminster and Dublin have to step in to negotiate solution.

Unlikely, as i mentioned above im almost certain the UUP can form a government without the other Unionist parties as long as Sinn Fein also wishes to form a government. The DUP and TUV would instead move into the Opposition.

SF finishes first; Alliance finishes second. While under St Andrews agreement, highest-placing unionist party still has the right to nominate the Deputy First Minister, unionism goes into a navel-gazing crisis, and legitimacy of Stormont is undercut by inability of the second-largest party in the Assembly to participate in the executive. A seriously dangerous political crisis ensues.

Impossible. Alliance will not finish in second place this election, i think the best they could hope for is Third or Fourth, and with how recent polling has been going fourth is more likely i think.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Even if the UUP became the second largest Party in Stormont and the largest Unionist Party there is no guarantee they will enter into a government with Sinn Fein either as Doug Beattie has basically refused to say if the party would nominate someone for the office of DFM if they were in the position to do so. He says the UUP is focusing on getting the position of FM and well yeah thats basically not happening.

So it remains to be seen whether or not the new Modern and Progressive UUP is actually that and if they decide to scupper the Executive because of having to take the office of DFM instead of FM then as far as i am concerned they are just like the rest of Political Unionism.

EDIT: Oh Speaking of Doug Beattie he is being heavily criticised for a misogynistic joke aimed at Edwin Poots wife that he made on twitter, where he basically said Poot's wife knows what the inside of a Brothel smells like and his doesnt or something along those lines. The actual joke has been deleted i think so dont know for sure whats in it

[-Astoria-]

Even if the UUP became the second largest Party in Stormont and the largest Unionist Party there is no guarantee they will enter into a government with Sinn Fein either as Doug Beattie has basically refused to say if the party would nominate someone for the office of DFM if they were in the position to do so. He says the UUP is focusing on getting the position of FM and well yeah thats basically not happening.

So it remains to be seen whether or not the new Modern and Progressive UUP is actually that and if they decide to scupper the Executive because of having to take the office of DFM instead of FM then as far as i am concerned they are just like the rest of Political Unionism.

EDIT: Oh Speaking of Doug Beattie he is being heavily criticised for a misogynistic joke aimed at Edwin Poots wife that he made on twitter, where he basically said Poot's wife knows what the inside of a Brothel smells like and his doesnt or something along those lines. The actual joke has been deleted i think so dont know for sure whats in it

Someone took a screencap of it.

Saturday night joke..... don't blame me. :laughingcrying:

Edwin Poots the newly elected leader of the Democratic Unionist Party and Doug Beattie the newly elected leader of the Ulster Unionist Party somehow ended up at the same barber shop.
As they sat there, each being worked on by a different barber, not a word was spoken.
The barbers were both afraid to start a conversation, for fear it would turn to politics.
As the barbers finished their shaves, the one who had Poots in his chair reached for the aftershave. Poots was quick to stop him, jokingly saying, "No thanks. My wife, will smell that and think I've been in a brothel."
The second barber turned to Doug Beattie and said, "How about you, Mr. Beattie?" Beattie replied, "Go right ahead, my wife doesn't know what the inside of a brothel smells like."

[The Huskar Social Union]

Even if the UUP became the second largest Party in Stormont and the largest Unionist Party there is no guarantee they will enter into a government with Sinn Fein either as Doug Beattie has basically refused to say if the party would nominate someone for the office of DFM if they were in the position to do so. He says the UUP is focusing on getting the position of FM and well yeah thats basically not happening.

So it remains to be seen whether or not the new Modern and Progressive UUP is actually that and if they decide to scupper the Executive because of having to take the office of DFM instead of FM then as far as i am concerned they are just like the rest of Political Unionism.

EDIT: Oh Speaking of Doug Beattie he is being heavily criticised for a misogynistic joke aimed at Edwin Poots wife that he made on twitter, where he basically said Poot's wife knows what the inside of a Brothel smells like and his doesnt or something along those lines. The actual joke has been deleted i think so dont know for sure whats in it

Someone took a screencap of it.

Saturday night joke..... don't blame me. :laughingcrying:

Edwin Poots the newly elected leader of the Democratic Unionist Party and Doug Beattie the newly elected leader of the Ulster Unionist Party somehow ended up at the same barber shop.
As they sat there, each being worked on by a different barber, not a word was spoken.
The barbers were both afraid to start a conversation, for fear it would turn to politics.
As the barbers finished their shaves, the one who had Poots in his chair reached for the aftershave. Poots was quick to stop him, jokingly saying, "No thanks. My wife, will smell that and think I've been in a brothel."
The second barber turned to Doug Beattie and said, "How about you, Mr. Beattie?" Beattie replied, "Go right ahead, my wife doesn't know what the inside of a brothel smells like."

Ah cheers

[The Huskar Social Union]

Michael Fabricant once again being a really strange man with strange bullshit takes

'She's hardly someone who's obviously a Muslim.'

Tory MP Michael Fabricant declares that Nusrat Ghani's accusation of Islamophobia is a 'lame excuse' for her sacking as it's 'not apparent' she is Muslim.

[Vassenor]

Michael Fabricant once again being a really strange man with strange bullshit takes

'She's hardly someone who's obviously a Muslim.'

Tory MP Michael Fabricant declares that Nusrat Ghani's accusation of Islamophobia is a 'lame excuse' for her sacking as it's 'not apparent' she is Muslim.

...So it's only Islamophobia if the alleged victim conforms to stereotypes? I'm having trouble parsing his logic.

[CoraSpia]

Michael Fabricant once again being a really strange man with strange bullshit takes

...So it's only Islamophobia if the alleged victim conforms to stereotypes? I'm having trouble parsing his logic.

He seems to really want to get in with the group around Boris lately. He's been pretty publically attacking the group he used to be a part of for trying to call for a vote of no confidence.

[Mtwara]

Anybody here got a full electric car? I test drove a few this weekend. Feels like every third car on the road now has a green strip on the reg plates.

Not going to buy one yet but I know for sure the next car I buy won't have a combustion engine.

I wonder how well the rollout of the infrastructure required will go considering how badly smart meters were rolled out.

If you share a connection with your neighbor then your DNO has to give you a separate one. Across the country, that's quite a lot of work.

[CoraSpia]

Anybody here got a full electric car? I test drove a few this weekend. Feels like every third car on the road now has a green strip on the reg plates.

Not going to buy one yet but I know for sure the next car I buy won't have a combustion engine.

I wonder how well the rollout of the infrastructure required will go considering how badly smart meters were rolled out.

If you share a connection with your neighbor then your DNO has to give you a separate one. Across the country, that's quite a lot of work.

I suspect it'll get delayed and delayed for years.

[Philjia]

Anybody here got a full electric car? I test drove a few this weekend. Feels like every third car on the road now has a green strip on the reg plates.

Not going to buy one yet but I know for sure the next car I buy won't have a combustion engine.

I wonder how well the rollout of the infrastructure required will go considering how badly smart meters were rolled out.

If you share a connection with your neighbor then your DNO has to give you a separate one. Across the country, that's quite a lot of work.

I'd rather not have a car at all but it remains highly impractical to do so where I live. (And for my job.)

I'm keeping my eye on what's happening with Lancia being resurrected as a premium EV brand because an electric hatchback that's also 4WD would be just the thing for me.

[The Archregimancy]

Anybody here got a full electric car? I test drove a few this weekend. Feels like every third car on the road now has a green strip on the reg plates.

Not going to buy one yet but I know for sure the next car I buy won't have a combustion engine.

I wonder how well the rollout of the infrastructure required will go considering how badly smart meters were rolled out.

If you share a connection with your neighbor then your DNO has to give you a separate one. Across the country, that's quite a lot of work.

We have an EV; it's the only car we have. It's a used 2018 model, so battery range isn't as far as a newer model (improved technology rather than degraded battery), but it's more than adequate for my needs. I use it to commute to work on weekdays - about a 72 mile / 115 km round trip each day. I then plug it in to charge when I get home, and it's always fully charged by the time I go to bed.

We had a home charger installed when we purchased the car, and that process went very smoothly - though obviously having a house with our own off-street parking makes that process logistically simpler than for people living in flats or high-density terraced housing without designated parking.

One of the advantages of being the chief executive of an organisation is that I can also order my staff to move forward with installation of workplace EV chargers, and we should have two of those installed as well in the next couple of months. At least two of my staff also have EVs.

We've really noticed the increase in EVs where we live when we go shopping on weekends, though our town is admittedly one of the more upscale locations in our county, and we do our supermarket shop at Waitrose (LibDems, eh?), so take that with the necessary pinch of salt.

There's no doubt that the initial purchase price of an EV (even a 3 year old used one) is still an obstacle for many potential buyers, but if you can get past that initial obstacle the running costs are much lower than with a traditional petrol car. And the torque when you accelerate from a standing start.... That was a big surprise.

Anyway, we think our EV is brilliant, and even if petrol cars weren't being phased out we wouldn't go back.

[The Archregimancy]

Michael Fabricant once again being a really strange man with strange bullshit takes

'She's hardly someone who's obviously a Muslim.'

Tory MP Michael Fabricant declares that Nusrat Ghani's accusation of Islamophobia is a 'lame excuse' for her sacking as it's 'not apparent' she is Muslim.

There are many staggering things about Mr Fabricant's latest remarks, not least that Mr Fabricant has himself previously been accused of Islamophobia after retweeting a cartoon of Sadiq Khan having sex with a pig, which resulted in the MP for Lichfield issuing an apology with an excuse even less credible than the Prime Minister's explanations for Downing Street parties.

But the really extraordinary thing about his claim that Nusrat Ghani doesn't look enough like a Muslim to be discriminated against for being a Muslim is that Mr Fabricant is Jewish. While he's non-practicing himself, his father was a rabbi at Brighton's synagogue. I can't imagine that wearing a blond wig, not following Jewish religious practices, and claiming 'it's not apparent that I'm a Jew' would have saved the likes of Mr Fabricant from anti-Semitism in much of Europe over the last century or so.

[Hirota]

The first time I saw Michael Fabricant I thought he was one of Jon Culshaw's characters for a sketch or something.

Still, listening to the larger interview on LBC he sounds slightly more sensible than the cherrypicking soundbite would have you believe.

On the other hand, if I remember he's almost Northern Irish with his obsession with what might be described as "edgy" flags.

Strange man.

[Ostroeuropa]

I'm not entirely convinced Michael Fabricant is real either. But he's not got the big energy of a living meme person, whether real or fictional. He's got the strangeness but he lacks the vitality. It's like Borat or Trump if there wasn't high energy to their shenanigans. Like if the Borat movie were just him sat in a cafe or riding the bus making odd comments.

Fabricant seems like a meme person. But because he lacks that kind of grandiose spectacle to him, it's much more surreal because of how subdued it is. I can't quite place it. He's either an extremely subtle troll who figures the long-con is better than the flash in the pan, or he's just a real living meme person without any showmanship.

[The Archregimancy]

Michael Fabricant is real. I've met him twice. But between the way he presents himself, the wig, and the surname hinting at 'fabrication' it's understandable that many think he's a satirical character.

I agree with Hirota up to a point over the LBC interview in that, by his standards, it's not wholly outrageous up to that bit about it not being apparent that Nusrat Ghani is a Muslim. This manages to miss the point of Ms Ghani's specific accusation (that a comment about her 'Muslimness' was made to her directly), is unfortunate given his past retweeting of a cartoon showing Sadiq Khan fucking a pig (and does the Mayor of London look any more 'Muslim' that Ms Ghani; how Muslim do you have to look to be a target?), is ironic given his willingness to characterise Baroness Warsi's resignation from Cameron's government as a 'Muslim issue', and is paradoxical given his own religio-ethnic background; and this is all coming from a man who happily keeps an apartheid-era South African flag on his mantlepiece and is less than clear about the specific nature of his past business relationships with the South African government.

This is also someone who, when he called a teenaged female voting-age constituent a 'twat' on social media, claimed that he actually thought the latter word meant precisely the same thing as 'twit' - an incident that even made the Belfast Telegraph (Huskar will be delighted). And I know that's just one incident, but it's characteristic of his obfuscation and excuse-making when he's caught red-handed saying something objectionable; which happens a lot.

So he might not be the best person to go out there and put the government's case to the media.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Parachute Regiment flags appear in Derry ahead of 50th anniversary of Bloody Sunday

PARACHUTE REGIMENT FLAGS have appeared in areas in Co Derry ahead of the 50th anniversary of Bloody Sunday.

A number of tweets on social media appeared to show flags in the Newbuildings and Drumahoe areas of Co Derry.

Sinn Féin MLA Ciara Ferguson said the erection of the flags has caused “huge upset” and has called for their removal.

“Given this British regiment’s brutal history in Derry, this is a deliberate attempt to stir up tensions and hurt families ahead of the 50th anniversary of Bloody Sunday and the murder of 14 civilians by the British Army in Derry,” she said.

“I have stood with those families in recent days. They are steadfast, courageous and determined in their campaign for truth and justice for their loved ones.

“I am calling on all political parties and community leaders to condemn the erecting of these flags and to use their influence to have them removed immediately.”

SDLP MLA Sinéad McLaughlin has also condemned the flags. “These flags were put up with the intention of causing hurt,” she said in a tweet.

=CONTINUES=

Northern Ireland doing Northern Ireland things.

So he might not be the best person to go out there and put the government's case to the media.

No he is the best person to put the governments case to the media, and Liz Truss should become the new leader, she would be great *nods*

[Ifreann]

Parachute Regiment flags appear in Derry ahead of 50th anniversary of Bloody Sunday

PARACHUTE REGIMENT FLAGS have appeared in areas in Co Derry ahead of the 50th anniversary of Bloody Sunday.

A number of tweets on social media appeared to show flags in the Newbuildings and Drumahoe areas of Co Derry.

Sinn Féin MLA Ciara Ferguson said the erection of the flags has caused “huge upset” and has called for their removal.

“Given this British regiment’s brutal history in Derry, this is a deliberate attempt to stir up tensions and hurt families ahead of the 50th anniversary of Bloody Sunday and the murder of 14 civilians by the British Army in Derry,” she said.

“I have stood with those families in recent days. They are steadfast, courageous and determined in their campaign for truth and justice for their loved ones.

“I am calling on all political parties and community leaders to condemn the erecting of these flags and to use their influence to have them removed immediately.”

SDLP MLA Sinéad McLaughlin has also condemned the flags. “These flags were put up with the intention of causing hurt,” she said in a tweet.

=CONTINUES=

Northern Ireland doing Northern Ireland things.

Controversial flegs? In Northern Ireland?

It's more likely than you think.