San Lumen wrote:Shrillland wrote:All right, it's now time, and with wishing best of luck for Philjia's run(which I should've done before)...here's my take on next week. Remember, with local councils, my predictions are a little less confident given my knowledge, but enough for me to give rough ideas, and I'll only be showing where I think there will be changes.At first glance, nothing's going to change in the Assembly, Unionists will be the largest group, Nationalists second, Non-Aligned third....but that's a deceiving picture. For the first time in modern NI's history, Sinn Fein is actually expected to have a comfortable lead in seat totals, averaging 27% in the polls, which means that Michelle O'Neill will be the first Nationalist and Left Wing First Minister in the country's history. Again, this is largely symbolic as the FM and the DFM are actually co-leaders with no distinction and the DUP's Jeffrey Donaldson will be Deputy, but it, combined with the rise of the Alliance Party, expected to win its first seats west of the Bann, shows both Northern Ireland's changes and a huge want of confidence in Conservative politics as a whole. Sinn Fein will stay more or less where it is at 26-29 seats, DUP will go down to about 19-22, APNI up to 15, UUP up to 12-14, TUV 5, Greens 4, People Before Profit still hanging on at 1.Since STV's the rule in Scottish Councils, NOCs are also common, and changes are more towards who'll be leading them. However, the SNP's polls are a lot higher now than they were four years ago, and the Tories' floundering combined with a relatively weak Labour that can't take the initiative means that there will be some council changes, and although Labour will gain some seats, it's the SNP's to lose. Again, this doesn't necessarily say what the actual leadership will look like, just the seat totals themselves. Also, STV means we won't know the full results that night, but you knew that already, right?
Going Full SNP:
Aberdeen
Clackmannanshire
Dundee
East Ayrshire
Glasgow
Renfrewshire
Going NOC or Changing NOC:
Aberdeenshire(Conservative-led to SNP-led)
Dumfries and Galloway(Conservative-led to SNP-led)
East Renfrewshire(Conservative-led to SNP-led)
Highland(Independent to SNP-led)
North Ayrshire(NOC to SNP-led)
Perth and Kinross(Conservative-led to SNP-led)
South Ayrshire(Conservative-led to SNP-led)
Stirling(Conservative-led to SNP-led)Welsh polls are a little harder to find, but the ones we have for Senedd preferences show no real differences. Even so, the same issues affecting Labour in Scotland are prevalent here, despite a good tailwind, Labour's fairly weak reputation means that their gains will be limited whilst Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems, and the Greens will be able to take up the slack. Even so, Labour will do fairly well and take some council majorities. Welsh councils will also get to go to STV from FPTP, though it won't take effect until the next election in '27. Plus, boundary reviews have meant an overall loss of 23 seats country wide, which does change the math somewhat as some councils shrink drastically whilst others grow.
Going Full Labour:
Bridgend
Cardiff
Flintshire
Merthyr Tydfil
Going Full PC:
Carmarthenshire
Ceredigion
Going NOC or Changing NOC:
Conwy(Conservative-led to Independent-led)
Denbighshire(Conservative-led to NOC)
Monmouthshire(Conservative-led to Labour-led)
Vale of Glamorgan(Conservative-led to Labour-led)Now we're arrived in England, and London is going to provide some of the best pickup opportunities for the Liberal Democrats from some of the more traditionally upper-class blue councils, though the number of council they gain won't be proportionate. Polls actually don't show a sizeable change in Lib Dem support and a small increase for the Greens, but I think enough disgusted Tories may choose Lib Dem to turn the tide in several places. Greens will also gain council seats, particularly in the safer red councils like Islington. 2018 was Labour's best result in years, and they're poised to surpass it further as the Tories will be decimated across the city...though not the City, they had their vote already.
Going Full Labour:
Wandsworth
Westminster
Going NOC or Changing NOC:
Barnet(Conservative to Labour-led)
Bexley(Conservative to NOC)
Havering(Conservative-led to Havering Residents Association-led)
Hillingdon(Conservative-led to Labour-led)
Kensington and Chelsea(Conservative to NOC)
Mayoral Races:
Croydon: Val Shawcross(Labour) elected
Hackney: Phillip Glanville(Labour) re-elected
Lewisham: Damien Egan(Labour) re-elected
Newham: Rokshana Fiaz(Labour) re-elected
Tower Hamlets: John Biggs(Labour) re-electedOh, doing England's always a mess because of how the councils are set up, it's where most of my mistakes from last year came about. Even so, the trends away from the Conservatives and towards Labour and the Lib Dems still hold. There's also a ballot measure in Bristol over whether they'll keep their separately elected Mayor, which I think they'll vote to do.
Going Full Independent/Residents Party:
Castle Point(Canvey Island Independent)
Elmbridge(Elmbridge Residents Association)
Going Full Labour:
Amber Valley
Crawley
Harlow
Kirklees
Newcastle-Under-Lyme
Nuneaton and Bedworth
Plymouth
Southhampton
Swindon
West Lancashire
Worthing
Going Full Liberal Democrat:
Gosport
Westmorland and Furness(New council from Cumbria's split)
Woking
Going NOC or Changing NOC:
Basildon(Conservative to NOC)
Basingstoke and Deane(Conservative to NOC)
Brentwood(Conservative-led to Liberal Democrat-led)
Bolton(Conservative-led to Labour-led)
Cannock Chase(Conservative to NOC)
Colchester(Conservative-led to Liberal Democrat-led)
Cumberland(New council from Cumbria's split: Conservative-led)
Derby(Conservative-led to Labour-led)
Dudley(Conservative to NOC)
Hart(Conservative-led to Liberal Democrat-led)
Hartlepool(Conservative-led to Labour-led)
Huntingdonshire(Conservative to NOC)
Maidstone(Conservative-led to Liberal Democrat-led)
Milton Keynes(Conservative-led to Labour-led)
North Hertfordshire(Conservative-led to Labour-led)
Pendle(Conservative to NOC)
Portsmouth(Conservative-led to Liberal Democrat-led)
Reigate and Banstead(Conservative to NOC)
Rugby(Conservative to NOC)
Somerset(Conservative-led to Liberal Democrat-led)
Southend-on-Sea(Conservative-led to Labour-led)
Stockport(Liberal Democrat-led to NOC)
Thurrock(Conservative to NOC)
Walsall(Conservative to NOC)
Welwyn Hatfield(Conservative to NOC)
West Oxfordshire(Conservative to NOC)
Wokingham(Conservative to NOC)
Worcester(Conservative to NOC)
Mayoral Races:
South Yorkshire: Oliver Coppard(Labour hold) Elected
Watford: Peter Taylor(Liberal Democrat) Re-elected
In short, a bad week of counts for anyone with blue rosettes.
Conservatives losing Westminster council would be a very big deal. I hope I can watch the live stream of bbc’s election coverage. I was able to last year.
Shrilland is, shall we say, being slightly overoptimistic. My best-case scenario for Labour would give them 24 to the Conservatives' 30 on Westminster. They should win Barnet (IDK how you get NOC there, it's a straight Labour-Tory fight) and Wandsworth though. Bexley, Hillingdon, and Kensington and Chelsea will all stay Conservative and I have no idea about Havering.
