UK Politics Thread IX: Try turning the UK off and on again.

[Celritannia]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/23/tories-face-heavy-local-election-losses-over-partygate-pm-told

Tories face heavy local election losses over Partygate, PM told

Prominent backbencher Steve Baker says party will ‘reap the whirlwind on polling day’

I am not so sure about that, personally. Plenty of people further down the tree at work have said they're going to vote Conservative again at work.

Over the years at work, I've observed that the less skilled and educated you are, the more likely you are to vote Conservative...

It does seem to be the way, especially with UKIP out of the picture.

[San Lumen]

I am not so sure about that, personally. Plenty of people further down the tree at work have said they're going to vote Conservative again at work.

Over the years at work, I've observed that the less skilled and educated you are, the more likely you are to vote Conservative...

It does seem to be the way, especially with UKIP out of the picture.

do you think MP Baker is correct?

[Celritannia]

It does seem to be the way, especially with UKIP out of the picture.

do you think MP Baker is correct?

What has Teve Baker, MP, said?

Oh, that. Yes, the Tories will lose a lot of local council seats.

[Shrillland]

do you think MP Baker is correct?

What has Teve Baker, MP, said?

Oh, that. Yes, the Tories will lose a lot of local council seats.

Aye, but Labour won't be as well as they think they will. The polls say what Ostro's been saying, Wales and Scotland will see PC and SNP, respectively, take up more of the slack than Labour, and while Labour will gain a lot of councils(or at least the leads in NOCs)the Lib Dems will lead an orange crush not seen in nearly 20 years.

[Celritannia]

What has Teve Baker, MP, said?

Oh, that. Yes, the Tories will lose a lot of local council seats.

Aye, but Labour won't be as well as they think they will. The polls say what Ostro's been saying, Wales and Scotland will see PC and SNP, respectively, take up more of the slack than Labour, and while Labour will gain a lot of councils(or at least the leads in NOCs)the Lib Dems will lead an orange crush not seen in nearly 20 years.

Oh definately.

[San Lumen]

What has Teve Baker, MP, said?

Oh, that. Yes, the Tories will lose a lot of local council seats.

Aye, but Labour won't be as well as they think they will. The polls say what Ostro's been saying, Wales and Scotland will see PC and SNP, respectively, take up more of the slack than Labour, and while Labour will gain a lot of councils(or at least the leads in NOCs)the Lib Dems will lead an orange crush not seen in nearly 20 years.

What polls?

It seems you think Labor will only make gains in NOC? Or am I misreading you? What makes you think Liberal Democrats will do that well?

[The Archregimancy]

Aye, but Labour won't be as well as they think they will. The polls say what Ostro's been saying, Wales and Scotland will see PC and SNP, respectively, take up more of the slack than Labour, and while Labour will gain a lot of councils(or at least the leads in NOCs)the Lib Dems will lead an orange crush not seen in nearly 20 years.

What polls?

It seems you think Labor will only make gains in NOC? Or am I misreading you? What makes you think Liberal Democrats will do that well?

Reaction to the local election polls is at the expectations management stage. Conservative supporters seem to be leaking stories about catastrophic losses of c.800 seats while Labour supporters seem to be leaking stories about how their poll lead isn't as secure as we might think, and Conservative projections of losses are 'ludicrous'.

The Conservative Party is therefore positioning itself to claim that lower than projected seat losses are a form of victory, while Labour is positioning itself to claim that anything better than small gains is a smashing victory.

The LibDems, meanwhile, are stating that they expect to make some gains, but not to gain control of any Councils; "This set of local elections is about gaining and building on ‘footholds’ where the Lib Dems are strong in nearby areas" and "it will be tough for us". Therefore the party is positioning itself to make hay out of their successes if they do better than hold what they already have.

This applies primarily to England and the broader UK picture, of course; Scotland and Wales are more complicated. But I don't think the SNP expects to make serious gains - Unionists disenchanted with the Tories are more likely to drift to Labour and the LibDems rather than the SNP - while Plaid, as Ostro has already pointed out, is reasonably well-placed to make gains in Wales.

But the national headlines when we wake up on the 6th will largely depend on that Conservative/Labour dynamic, with the LibDems (and to some extent the Greens) coming into the headline picture if their gains significantly hurt the Conservatives - and therefore help serve as a catalyst for a Conservative leadership contest (depending on the scale of Tory losses).

[San Lumen]

What polls?

It seems you think Labor will only make gains in NOC? Or am I misreading you? What makes you think Liberal Democrats will do that well?

Reaction to the local election polls is at the expectations management stage. Conservative supporters seem to be leaking stories about catastrophic losses of c.800 seats while Labour supporters seem to be leaking stories about how their poll lead isn't as secure as we might think, and Conservative projections of losses are 'ludicrous'.

The Conservative Party is therefore positioning itself to claim that lower than projected seat losses are a form of victory, while Labour is positioning itself to claim that anything better than small gains is a smashing victory.

The LibDems, meanwhile, are stating that they expect to make some gains, but not to gain control of any Councils; "This set of local elections is about gaining and building on ‘footholds’ where the Lib Dems are strong in nearby areas" and "it will be tough for us". Therefore the party is positioning itself to make hay out of their successes if they do better than hold what they already have.

This applies primarily to England and the broader UK picture, of course; Scotland and Wales are more complicated. But I don't think the SNP expects to make serious gains - Unionists disenchanted with the Tories are more likely to drift to Labour and the LibDems rather than the SNP - while Plaid, as Ostro has already pointed out, is reasonably well-placed to make gains in Wales.

But the national headlines when we wake up on the 6th will largely depend on that Conservative/Labour dynamic, with the LibDems (and to some extent the Greens) coming into the headline picture if their gains significantly hurt the Conservatives - and therefore help serve as a catalyst for a Conservative leadership contest (depending on the scale of Tory losses).

Labor and Liberal Democrats are therefore downplaying their expectations. I hope I’m able to watch the election coverage on BBC like I did last year. Most of it was available via live stream.

[Celritannia]

What ever will the Tories do next to lose credibility?

[San Lumen]

Im curious how the nomination process works for local elections in the UK? Is the process to get nominated similar to what's done for the House of Commons?

[Celritannia]

Im curious how the nomination process works for local elections in the UK? Is the process to get nominated similar to what's done for the House of Commons?

Here's info for my local area.

Info for candidates for local elections in England

Info for candidates for local elections in Scotland

Info for candidates for local elections in Wales

Info for candidates for local elections in Northern Ireland

[Philjia]

Im curious how the nomination process works for local elections in the UK? Is the process to get nominated similar to what's done for the House of Commons?

I've done it so I can tell you. We didn't have to put down a deposit, but we did need to have one of our party members designated as an election agent, who signed off on all our paperwork and declarations we weren't going to commit any crimes, and independent candidates will need one as well. Personally, I had to fill out some forms and be nominated by ten registered voters from the ward, one of whom was the proposer and therefore entitled to see my home address. (Although all the candidates including me allowed everyone to see our addresses on the ballot.)

[San Lumen]

Im curious how the nomination process works for local elections in the UK? Is the process to get nominated similar to what's done for the House of Commons?

I've done it so I can tell you. We didn't have to put down a deposit, but we did need to have one of our party members designated as an election agent, who signed off on all our paperwork and declarations we weren't going to commit any crimes, and independent candidates will need one as well. Personally, I had to fill out some forms and be nominated by ten registered voters from the ward, one of whom was the proposer and therefore entitled to see my home address. (Although all the candidates including me allowed everyone to see our addresses on the ballot.)

what if multiple people want to run?

[Philjia]

I've done it so I can tell you. We didn't have to put down a deposit, but we did need to have one of our party members designated as an election agent, who signed off on all our paperwork and declarations we weren't going to commit any crimes, and independent candidates will need one as well. Personally, I had to fill out some forms and be nominated by ten registered voters from the ward, one of whom was the proposer and therefore entitled to see my home address. (Although all the candidates including me allowed everyone to see our addresses on the ballot.)

what if multiple people want to run?

Up to the party to decide how it's done. We'd just have a vote, if we actually had that many potential candidates.

[San Lumen]

what if multiple people want to run?

Up to the party to decide how it's done. We'd just have a vote, if we actually had that many potential candidates.

A vote of who? is there a primary or a party convention?

[Ifreann]

Good news, everyone, the ban on protest now only awaits royal assent.

[Tinhampton]

Today, the BBC published Families tell of agony over passport delays - not their first article about the matter - which begins as follows

A surge in passport applications is threatening the holiday plans of families across the country.

The rise in passport applications is thought to be due to families putting off renewing while they could not travel during the pandemic. The Passport Office estimates five million people delayed their applications in 2020 and 2021.

Holidaymakers travelling to EU countries have also been warned to check their passports are valid.

Post-Brexit travel rules that came into force last year mean many EU countries are insisting passports must be more no more than 10-years-old from the point of issue and be valid for at least three months after the date you plan to leave the country you are visiting.

Given that these changes were supposedly enacted "last year," you would surely expect the BBC to have at least paid some attention to them over the February half-term. Yet two months ago, they could find no greater EU-holiday-related inconvenience than Spain requiring that 12-18 year olds be vaccinated against coronavirus (which got reversed a couple of days later in favour of a testing requirement). Why?

[Crysuko]

Good news, everyone, the ban on protest now only awaits royal assent.

it was always going to pass, any chance to backslide into fascism, this country will take it.

[Ifreann]

Good news, everyone, the ban on protest now only awaits royal assent.

it was always going to pass, any chance to backslide into fascism, this country will take it.

British people are sick of rights.

[Crysuko]

it was always going to pass, any chance to backslide into fascism, this country will take it.

British people are sick of rights.

you could sell this country to the blackshirts tomorrow with the promise of fucking over immigrants and Romani

[The Huskar Social Union]

I've done it so I can tell you. We didn't have to put down a deposit, but we did need to have one of our party members designated as an election agent, who signed off on all our paperwork and declarations we weren't going to commit any crimes, and independent candidates will need one as well. Personally, I had to fill out some forms and be nominated by ten registered voters from the ward, one of whom was the proposer and therefore entitled to see my home address. (Although all the candidates including me allowed everyone to see our addresses on the ballot.)

what if multiple people want to run?

They fight to the death, first armed with the Lirpa and later the Ahn'woon

[Ostroeuropa]

Up to the party to decide how it's done. We'd just have a vote, if we actually had that many potential candidates.

A vote of who? is there a primary or a party convention?

A vote held from those at the local meetings usually. There's presumably a procedure to contest it and probably have it submitted to the wider membership, but I have no idea why anybody would. Local meetings can sometimes struggle to fill all the positions and its not uncommon to beg people to run. Sometimes with the assurance of "Don't worry, you won't win in that ward!" which can produce some amusing moments where there's an upset.

"I was assured I wouldn't be elected. My disappointment is immeasurable and my day is ruined.".

My hometowns party had about 12 people who turned up to meetings on a good day. We were the largest branch. Constituency meetings it's about 50 on a good day. Almost nobody actually participates in party politics beyond being a member.

I'm only mildly exaggerating when I say if everybody in the UK poliics thread joined their local branches they would have a detectable impact on politics in this country, and that exaggeration is only there because quite a few of us already participate...

To give an indication, there are 430,000 labour members.

Divided by 632 (Non-Irish Constituencies), is 680.

In a constituency like Bridgend, there are five major towns (ignoring the minor ones which also have local offices sometimes).

136.

Even assuming a hearty 20% attendance rate, you're at 27 people in the meetings. More realistically you're looking at 10% or so on a good day, and most days only the people who actually need to go along with the nutters will go. (I am a nutter, I say it fondly).

10% is about 13-14 people. There are 19 councillors elected by this town. Add to this that you must live in the appropriate district. So if you and your wife turn up (And families being members together is relatively common), you're still only able to put forward one candidate for that area. That's before you even get into members living in the same ward as other members just coincidentally.

I can only assume that for the other parties it's even more dire. The next largest party is the Conservatives at 200,000. Then the liberals at 90,000.

Maybe the liberals have a higher attendence rate by virtue of being third party, but I bet they've got similar issues.

By the way, Labour is the largest party in Europe. How the fuck democracy functions I have no idea.

Oh...

OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

[San Lumen]

Good news, everyone, the ban on protest now only awaits royal assent.

Couldn't the Queen refuse Royal Asset? Why is this no longer done?

[The Archregimancy]

Good news, everyone, the ban on protest now only awaits royal assent.

Couldn't the Queen refuse Royal Asset? Why is this no longer done?

People outside the UK often misunderstand royal assent. This is not some reserve power of the monarchy that vests residual power in the monarch; instead it's a functionally ceremonial process.

Constitutionally, the Queen can only act on the advice of her ministers. Therefore she can only refuse assent if her ministers advise her to do so. Practically, the monarch has been largely removed from the process of royal assent. Since Henry VIII, it's been possible for the granting of assent to be delegated - so the monarch's personal role is no longer necessary (oversimplifying).

The last British monarch to refuse royal assent was Anne, in 1708, over the Scottish militia bill - when she only refused assent on advice of her ministers.

There are therefore no practical circumstances in 2022 under which a monarch could refuse assent unless the government instructed the monarch to do so; which is itself an almost unimaginable scenario under the modern parliamentary system, since a government can only be formed by a party or coalition that commands a majority in the Commons.

[San Lumen]

Couldn't the Queen refuse Royal Asset? Why is this no longer done?

People outside the UK often misunderstand royal assent. This is not some reserve power of the monarchy that vests residual power in the monarch; instead it's a functionally ceremonial process.

Constitutionally, the Queen can only act on the advice of her ministers. Therefore she can only refuse assent if her ministers advise her to do so. Practically, the monarch has been largely removed from the process of royal assent. Since Henry VIII, it's been possible for the granting of assent to be delegated - so the monarch's personal role is no longer necessary (oversimplifying).

The last British monarch to refuse royal assent was Anne, in 1708, over the Scottish militia bill - when she only refused assent on advice of her ministers.

There are therefore no practical circumstances in 2022 under which a monarch could refuse assent unless the government instructed the monarch to do so; which is itself an almost unimaginable scenario under the modern parliamentary system, since a government can only be formed by a party or coalition that commands a majority in the Commons.

So why don't her ministers say refuse this clearly unconstitutional bill? Or does this mean the Cabinet?