Ahead of their party conference this weekend, Labour are in a much better place electorally now than they have been for much of the year. The latest YouGov vote intention polling for the Times found Labour on 35%, 4 points behind the Conservatives on 39%. Last week, we found a 2-point Labour lead.
But what progress have Labour really made with voters since 2019, and to what extent are they advancing now in key political battleground areas up and down the country?
According to new YouGov data collected on 10,000 respondents from 6-18 September, Labour are currently holding on to around two thirds (65%) of those who voted for them in 2019. Almost one in five (19%) would vote for a different party if an election were held tomorrow, while 15% do not know and 2% would not vote.
Of those 2019 Labour voters who gave us a party vote intention (i.e. excluding those who will not vote or are currently unsure), 78% said they would stick with Labour. At this point 11% would vote Green instead, 4% would now vote Conservative, and another 4% would vote Liberal Democrat. A mere 1% would switch to Reform UK. This suggests that Labour face their biggest thread from the left – specifically the Greens – when it comes to shoring up their voter base from the last election.
How would 2019 Labour voters cast their ballots now?
LAB: 78%
CON: 4%
LDEM: 4%
GRN: 11%
SNP: 1%
RFUK: 1%
PLAID: 1%
OTH: 1%
And what of 2019 voters who did not back Labour? What progress have Labour made winning over voters who did not support them under Corbyn at the last election? According to YouGov data, of those who did vote in 2019 but did not support Labour, 7% of them now would vote for Starmer’s party if an election were held tomorrow. Almost three-quarters (70%) would remain voting for other parties, 20% do not know, and 3% would not vote.
While 7% is a notable number, it does not suggest that Labour is doing a strong enough job of making serious inroads with voters who did not back them in their worst electoral defeat since before the second world war. Combined with the leakage of voters on the party’s left flank, the situation is not one which Labour can be altogether comfortable with.
There is also some stats on voters in the "Blue Wall" and "Red Wall" areas where the Conservatives are down in both (45 from 52 in the Blue Wall and 44 from 48 in the Red Wall) but Labour only gaining in the "Blue Wall" up to 26% from 20% in 2019 and remaining on 38% in the "Red Wall". Greens are up in both going to 11% in the "Blue Wall" and up to 6% in the "Red Wall". Liberal Democrats are also down to 15% from 24% in the "Blue Wall".
