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China's growing power casts doubt on US defense of Taiwan

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Northern Socialist Council Republics
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Postby Northern Socialist Council Republics » Sun Jun 13, 2021 3:27 am

Orostan wrote:What China has done to East Africa, so far, is forgive debt and give a better deal than the US or Europe want to.

And why, exactly, were those countries patria non grata among western capitalists in the first place, hmm?

Just like the “better deal” that the Americans presented and continues to present to the authoritarian and/or unstable governments of right-wing dictatorships, these “better offers” that China is now presenting to likeminded dictators really begs the question of for whom the deal is supposed to be better.

I’ll speculate that within 10 years we will see Chinese military or law enforcement equipment being used in East Africa to suppress a major public demonstration seeking democratisation, with quiet approval from the CCP.
Last edited by Northern Socialist Council Republics on Sun Jun 13, 2021 3:29 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Engadine Mcdonalds 1997
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Postby Engadine Mcdonalds 1997 » Sun Jun 13, 2021 3:30 am

Is anyone actually surprised by this? It seems obvious when you have a nation that comprises of 1.7 billion people with gigantic economic growth and militarisation capacity compared to (roughly) 360 million people with a somewhat stagnant economic growth and admitting defeat in Afghanistan in a war they started almost 20 years ago. The only area that I'm aware of that China is lacking is an intelligence group similar to the CIA and (former) KGB which shouldn't be too hard in theory.
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Adamede
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Postby Adamede » Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:19 am

Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:
Washington Resistance Army wrote:
In no world would this ever happen. People in China learned what happens when you oppose the party in '89. They'll run your ass over with armored vehicles then power wash your pulped remains off the road so things look fine in the morning.


Take a long look at history.


Dictatorships, particularly isolated, oppressive, genocidal, and expansionist totalitarian regimes don't last long.

Most definitely true when they are faced with a united economic, political and diplomatic onslaught from the West.

Governments lead by strongmen tend to be the domain trend in human history.

For a long time most of the world was governed by god-kings. Democracy and liberty and all that jazz that we enjoy in the 21st century is not the norm.
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Punished UMN
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Postby Punished UMN » Sun Jun 13, 2021 11:59 am

Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:
Punished UMN wrote:1) The PLAN is actually the largest and arguably most modern navy in the region.
2) The world needs the Chinese economy more than China needs ours. Without Chinese industry, many basic industries would collapse in even western countries.
3) With what? China is the world's largest industrial power, its industrial capacity is greater than all three countries combined, this isn't 1985 anymore.
4) Xi's policies are generally pretty popular.

Please do even a little research.


1) China can't even launch a fifth generation fighter off of one of their two first generation aircraft carriers. US warships pass between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland with impunity. Chinese technology is an inferior reproduction stolen and reverse engineered from Western sources.
2) There is absolute no industry that China exports that any Western nation (even 3rd World nations) can ramp up production in short order. Indeed, all of the industries China now exports good, the US was the leader decades ago. The notion that we would collapse from an inability to manufacture cheap goods is laughable.
3) China exports and manufacturers primarily cheap, low tech goods that benefit from cheap labor. If you want to hang your hat on toys and textiles, be my guest. Indeed, China can't even educate their own people, hence the need to send millions abroad for learning.
4) If Xi's was so popular, why the iron fist? When the strong arm tactics in Hong Kong, why the censorship of social media, why the concentration camps in Gobi?

Indeed, China spends considerable amount of time and effort trying to steal technology from the West. Advanced, free, and civilized societies don't invest in this kind of effort. If you steal technology instead of develop it, you will always be behind your competitor. It's laughable that the US went to the Moon decades ago and China is still struggling with a manned mission. Moreover, the life expectancy of totalitarian regimes is far less than free market, representative governments.

I look forward to seeing which of these facts you will strawman in your next post.

1) Neither do the other fleets in the region, carriers also aren't the only vessels, China has the most surface combatants of any nation. Moreover, they're building many air-bases in the South China Sea and more aircraft carriers. As for passing between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland, yeah, they're allowed to do that, the US Navy would have transit rights through there under international law. On the technology area, you might want to check where American technology is built now. China leads the world in things like electronics now.
2) Even at the height of US industrial production, it was only ever a small fraction of Chinese production. China isn't just the largest industrial economy in the world, it's the largest industrial economy in history. These industries take time to build as well, you can't just flip a switch and quadruple your steel production.
3) It's not 1995, China makes most of your electronics, your construction materials, etc.
4) Hong Kong isn't a part of normal China, he's trying to bring them better into the fold. There's not really an iron fist in China-proper.

Also, as for your last point, US and Chinese life expectancies are pretty much the same. The US has a life expectancy lower than that of many developing nations.

Your points would have been true 25 or 30 years ago, but they aren't true today.
Last edited by Punished UMN on Sun Jun 13, 2021 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Nilokeras
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Postby Nilokeras » Sun Jun 13, 2021 12:31 pm

Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:Indeed, China spends considerable amount of time and effort trying to steal technology from the West. Advanced, free, and civilized societies don't invest in this kind of effort. If you steal technology instead of develop it, you will always be behind your competitor. It's laughable that the US went to the Moon decades ago and China is still struggling with a manned mission.


I always found this argument amusing since 'taking the technology of your more advanced neighbours and deploying it to help in your development' is what any sane developing country should do in the face of predatory capital and interventionist neighbours. It's what the Soviets did to industrialize so quickly in the 20's and 30s' really - leverage cheap labour and exports to bring in outside technologies and capacity through experts and education to jump start your development.

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Punished UMN
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Postby Punished UMN » Sun Jun 13, 2021 12:39 pm

Nilokeras wrote:
Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:Indeed, China spends considerable amount of time and effort trying to steal technology from the West. Advanced, free, and civilized societies don't invest in this kind of effort. If you steal technology instead of develop it, you will always be behind your competitor. It's laughable that the US went to the Moon decades ago and China is still struggling with a manned mission.


I always found this argument amusing since 'taking the technology of your more advanced neighbours and deploying it to help in your development' is what any sane developing country should do in the face of predatory capital and interventionist neighbours. It's what the Soviets did to industrialize so quickly in the 20's and 30s' really - leverage cheap labour and exports to bring in outside technologies and capacity through experts and education to jump start your development.

You can tell Chinese economic policy is a failure because they've developed so much more rapidly and effectively than other countries in their situation. An 'honest' country would still be a poor shithole.
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Postby Kubra » Sun Jun 13, 2021 12:41 pm

Nilokeras wrote:
Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:Indeed, China spends considerable amount of time and effort trying to steal technology from the West. Advanced, free, and civilized societies don't invest in this kind of effort. If you steal technology instead of develop it, you will always be behind your competitor. It's laughable that the US went to the Moon decades ago and China is still struggling with a manned mission.


I always found this argument amusing since 'taking the technology of your more advanced neighbours and deploying it to help in your development' is what any sane developing country should do in the face of predatory capital and interventionist neighbours. It's what the Soviets did to industrialize so quickly in the 20's and 30s' really - leverage cheap labour and exports to bring in outside technologies and capacity through experts and education to jump start your development.
After all, a new productive technique must become general if it is to raise the general rate of profit.
But I digress. Sufficed to say, "theft" of things like intellectual property is something that pretty much every economy has. Make folks have to license windows and the whole mexican IT industry would collapse overnight.
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Nilokeras
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Postby Nilokeras » Sun Jun 13, 2021 1:03 pm

Punished UMN wrote:
Nilokeras wrote:
I always found this argument amusing since 'taking the technology of your more advanced neighbours and deploying it to help in your development' is what any sane developing country should do in the face of predatory capital and interventionist neighbours. It's what the Soviets did to industrialize so quickly in the 20's and 30s' really - leverage cheap labour and exports to bring in outside technologies and capacity through experts and education to jump start your development.

You can tell Chinese economic policy is a failure because they've developed so much more rapidly and effectively than other countries in their situation. An 'honest' country would still be a poor shithole.


Any honest country should have followed proper protocols for development, which is to sign up for a World Bank loan that requires your country to never charge any resource development royalties on those sweet sweet gold mines and that makes the entire country exclusively use those John Deere cyber-tractors that brick themselves if you don't fly in licensed technicians once a year.

Kubra wrote:
Nilokeras wrote:
I always found this argument amusing since 'taking the technology of your more advanced neighbours and deploying it to help in your development' is what any sane developing country should do in the face of predatory capital and interventionist neighbours. It's what the Soviets did to industrialize so quickly in the 20's and 30s' really - leverage cheap labour and exports to bring in outside technologies and capacity through experts and education to jump start your development.
After all, a new productive technique must become general if it is to raise the general rate of profit.
But I digress. Sufficed to say, "theft" of things like intellectual property is something that pretty much every economy has. Make folks have to license windows and the whole mexican IT industry would collapse overnight.


Yeah there's a reason why the global consortium of software manufacturers has a cringe campaign that offers $100 bounties to 'bust your boss' and report unlicensed software use.

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Postby Conservative Republic Of Huang » Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:26 pm

Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:
Punished UMN wrote:You can tell Chinese economic policy is a failure because they've developed so much more rapidly and effectively than other countries in their situation. An 'honest' country would still be a poor shithole.



The GDP per capita (PPP) of the United States is four times that of China.

That and the fact that the Chinese citizen is a slave.

Your post rings hollow.

Oops.

I have no sympathy for the Chinese government, but this post captures the quintessential ignorant Westerner that thinks China is 1984 and people live in the medieval age.
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Nilokeras
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Postby Nilokeras » Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:40 pm

Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:The GDP per capita (PPP) of the United States is four times that of China.


China is a developing country. A hundred years ago it was almost entirely agrarian and rural.

Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:That and the fact that the Chinese citizen is a slave.


Pure ideology.

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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:43 pm

Nilokeras wrote:
Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:The GDP per capita (PPP) of the United States is four times that of China.


China is a developing country. A hundred years ago it was almost entirely agrarian and rural.


Not even a hundred. This was still true as recently as the 1940's and 50's. There's many things to criticize China about, but economics isn't one of them. They've lifted a staggering amount of people out of poverty in a single lifetime.
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Postby Major-Tom » Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:45 pm

Nilokeras wrote:
Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:The GDP per capita (PPP) of the United States is four times that of China.


China is a developing country. A hundred years ago it was almost entirely agrarian and rural.

Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:That and the fact that the Chinese citizen is a slave.


Pure ideology.


I see where you're trying to take this, but I'm curious to know whether you think the Chinese quality of life is better than the Western one.

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Nilokeras
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Postby Nilokeras » Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:54 pm

Washington Resistance Army wrote:
Nilokeras wrote:
China is a developing country. A hundred years ago it was almost entirely agrarian and rural.


Not even a hundred. This was still true as recently as the 1940's and 50's. There's many things to criticize China about, but economics isn't one of them. They've lifted a staggering amount of people out of poverty in a single lifetime.


With the added burden of having to claw their way out of the ashes of both a civil war and a brutal Japanese invasion.

Major-Tom wrote:I see where you're trying to take this, but I'm curious to know whether you think the Chinese quality of life is better than the Western one.


As I said, China is a developing country. On a purely material basis the average Chinese person is less wealthy than the average American/Westerner. Said average Chinese person, however, has probably had their share of the GDP per capita triple within their lifetime. Which is what's being highlighted here.

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Postby Major-Tom » Sun Jun 13, 2021 9:12 pm

Nilokeras wrote:
Washington Resistance Army wrote:
Not even a hundred. This was still true as recently as the 1940's and 50's. There's many things to criticize China about, but economics isn't one of them. They've lifted a staggering amount of people out of poverty in a single lifetime.


With the added burden of having to claw their way out of the ashes of both a civil war and a brutal Japanese invasion.

Major-Tom wrote:I see where you're trying to take this, but I'm curious to know whether you think the Chinese quality of life is better than the Western one.


As I said, China is a developing country. On a purely material basis the average Chinese person is less wealthy than the average American/Westerner. Said average Chinese person, however, has probably had their share of the GDP per capita triple within their lifetime. Which is what's being highlighted here.


GDP Per Capita is one portion of the quality of life. A significant portion, sure, but I'd rather be working-class in America than upper-middle in China for a variety of reasons. And I say that as someone who is often very skeptical of this place.
Last edited by Major-Tom on Sun Jun 13, 2021 9:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Punished UMN » Sun Jun 13, 2021 9:12 pm

Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:
Punished UMN wrote:You can tell Chinese economic policy is a failure because they've developed so much more rapidly and effectively than other countries in their situation. An 'honest' country would still be a poor shithole.



The GDP per capita (PPP) of the United States is four times that of China.

That and the fact that the Chinese citizen is a slave.

Your post rings hollow.

Oops.

Not really fair to compare an economy that was already one of the advanced economies 170 years ago to one that just became a country and was devastated by a destructive war 71 years ago. The Chinese economic miracle is real whether or not you want to admit it, China has gone from being one of the poorest countries in the world to being a middle-income country (with roughly the same life expectancy as the US actually) in like thirty years.
Last edited by Punished UMN on Sun Jun 13, 2021 9:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Nilokeras » Sun Jun 13, 2021 9:15 pm

Major-Tom wrote:GDP Per Capita is one portion of the quality of life.


Hence 'on a purely material basis'.

Major-Tom wrote:A significant portion, sure, but I'd rather be working-class in America than upper-middle in China for a variety of reasons. And I say that as someone who is often very skeptical of this place.


If the material conditions are held equal/superior, then those 'variety of reasons' are ideological.
Last edited by Nilokeras on Sun Jun 13, 2021 9:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Punished UMN
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Postby Punished UMN » Sun Jun 13, 2021 9:17 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Nilokeras wrote:
With the added burden of having to claw their way out of the ashes of both a civil war and a brutal Japanese invasion.



As I said, China is a developing country. On a purely material basis the average Chinese person is less wealthy than the average American/Westerner. Said average Chinese person, however, has probably had their share of the GDP per capita triple within their lifetime. Which is what's being highlighted here.


GDP Per Capita is one portion of the quality of life. A significant portion, sure, but I'd rather be working-class in America than upper-middle in China for a variety of reasons. And I say that as someone who is often very skeptical of this place.

It's not reasonable to ignore the starting point. US household incomes have stagnated since the 70's. By only looking at GDP Per Capita in isolation, you are missing a key thing, which is that China went from being one of the poorest countries in the world to an economic superpower in a few decades. Their record is pretty good. It's impressive to go from being dirt poor to having a lifestyle for most of your population that is more comparable to that of a Western country than not.

To give you an idea, Shanghai circa 1987 and circa 2013: https://i.pinimg.com/originals/86/dc/66 ... fa37d6.jpg
Last edited by Punished UMN on Sun Jun 13, 2021 9:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Punished UMN » Sun Jun 13, 2021 9:29 pm

It's also worth noting that income, living costs, and living standards vary within a country. Most people in my county have a lower standard of living than most people in large swathes of China.
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Nilokeras
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Postby Nilokeras » Sun Jun 13, 2021 9:39 pm

Punished UMN wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
GDP Per Capita is one portion of the quality of life. A significant portion, sure, but I'd rather be working-class in America than upper-middle in China for a variety of reasons. And I say that as someone who is often very skeptical of this place.

It's not reasonable to ignore the starting point. US household incomes have stagnated since the 70's. By only looking at GDP Per Capita in isolation, you are missing a key thing, which is that China went from being one of the poorest countries in the world to an economic superpower in a few decades. Their record is pretty good. It's impressive to go from being dirt poor to having a lifestyle for most of your population that is more comparable to that of a Western country than not.

To give you an idea, Shanghai circa 1987 and circa 2013: https://i.pinimg.com/originals/86/dc/66 ... fa37d6.jpg


Part of this really feels like a sort of event horizon for the Western imagination too - for so much of the West actual standard of livings have been stagnant or even declining for a long time because of perma-austerity and the end of history, so the idea of a country being able to transform itself so utterly in a few decades is just unimaginable. How do you explain things like the Chinese bullet train revolution to people whose only experience of landscape-level change is postindustrial blight and gentrification?

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Postby Suriyanakhon » Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:38 pm

Conservative Republic Of Huang wrote:
Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:

The GDP per capita (PPP) of the United States is four times that of China.

That and the fact that the Chinese citizen is a slave.

Your post rings hollow.

Oops.

I have no sympathy for the Chinese government, but this post captures the quintessential ignorant Westerner that thinks China is 1984 and people live in the medieval age.


A lot of Americans don't realize that the view they have of foreign countries like China is filtered through propaganda that's just as prevalent as an authoritarian country's.
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Postby Sungoldy-China » Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:48 pm

Taiwan is China's bottom line, and the so-called bottom line is that this line is drawn very low, so China will not engage in war with Taiwan as long as China and the United States have not declared war
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Postby The Hazar Amisnery » Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:54 pm

Suriyanakhon wrote:
Conservative Republic Of Huang wrote:I have no sympathy for the Chinese government, but this post captures the quintessential ignorant Westerner that thinks China is 1984 and people live in the medieval age.


A lot of Americans don't realize that the view they have of foreign countries like China is filtered through propaganda that's just as prevalent as an authoritarian country's.

China manufactures most of the worlds stuff and their technology is great. America only hates China cause China has better technology and industry. As an Australian, I see China as good country cause they buy all our coal and gas.
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Postby Northern Socialist Council Republics » Sun Jun 13, 2021 11:01 pm

Suriyanakhon wrote:A lot of Americans don't realize that the view they have of foreign countries like China is filtered through propaganda that's just as prevalent as an authoritarian country's.

I have heard this sentiment expressed elegantly thus: in practice, what an open society means is the right to say things that are true, not the freedom from hearing things that are false. On that latter front there is no great difference between the US and China.



The Hazar Amisnery wrote:China manufactures most of the worlds stuff and their technology is great. America only hates China cause China has better technology and industry. As an Australian, I see China as good country cause they buy all our coal and gas.

What makes one wealthy isn’t necessarily what makes one happy. The close relationship between the standard of living and the quality of life often leads people to use these terms interchangeably, but these are very distinct concepts. The ultimate moral purpose of a high standard of living is to support a high quality of life.



Nilokeras wrote:If the material conditions are held equal/superior, then those 'variety of reasons' are ideological.

I mean, if you want to break it down to completely basic terms like that, then the idea that certain material conditions are superior to others is also a product of ideology.
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Postby Senkaku » Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:41 am

Nilokeras wrote:How do you explain things like the Chinese bullet train revolution to people whose only experience of landscape-level change is postindustrial blight and gentrification?

America on suicide watch jfc
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Postby Engadine Mcdonalds 1997 » Fri Jun 18, 2021 6:06 am

Yeerosland wrote:
The Hazar Amisnery wrote:China manufactures most of the worlds stuff and their technology is great. America only hates China cause China has better technology and industry. As an Australian, I see China as good country cause they buy all our coal and gas.


Hasn't China deliberately STOPPED buying high value goods (like wine) from Australia, though? Presenting a list of demands like the Aus govt should stop its citizens from criticizing China?

Maybe the coal and gas is where you draw the line. Or just the gas? They could actually buy the coal from the US if they really wanted to test your limits.

While China stopped importing things like coal and wine back in October, they are still importing our iron ore as of now. This could be for a multitude of reasons, however the most likely reason (in my opinion) would be that China doesn't want to obliterate Australia and instead simply apply economic pressure by stopping coal imports to get the extremely pro-coal government to potentially cool things off and settle down a bit. Of course this did jack and shit, especially with the increasing prices of iron ore, meaning that the potential strategy was completely pointless
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUhNFSyHGyE&t=1662s&ab_channel=friendlyjordies
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXtq4a8829g&t=1s

"I’ll tell you about the Greens. You know what the Greens are? They are a bunch of opportunists and trots hiding behind a gum tree trying to pretend they’re the Labor Party"- Paul Keating

Proud anti-ideologist and chief architect of Jordan Shanks Thought

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