China's growing power casts doubt on US defense of Taiwan

[Ayytaly]

Empires founded by Germanics, mind you.

Portugal by Vandals

Spain by Visigoths

Italy by Lombards

France by the Frankish (hence the name)

And, of course, Britain by Anglo-Saxons

What about Rome eh?

Romans were pretty cool until guys like Nero started to rule.

[Romextly]

What about Rome eh?

Romans were pretty cool until guys like Nero started to rule.

No, I'm saying that Rome colonised all those place

[Pasong Tirad]

Here's a good counter-perspective from a Taiwanese-American.

Brian Hioe notes that China has not yet developed the capability to conduct an invasion and a long-term occupation of the island, and may not be able to do so for a few more decades. The PLA's own timeline is to retake Taiwan by the PRC's centennial - 2049 - "with a gap of several decades allowing adequate hypothetical time to build such capacity."

Such an invasion plan would also be known in advance, and the first country to react to such a threat would not be the US - it would be Taiwan. "It is unlikely there would not be some form of international response during that window of time, nor that the Taiwanese government would simply wait with its arms folded during that period for an invasion to take place."

There are other reasons, and the article has a bit of length, but Hioe points out that "fearmongering doesn't help, it lowers the will to resist and, to be blunt, I oftentimes find that it comes from a place of contempt regarding Taiwanese."

"That is, viewing Taiwanese as infantile and unconcerned about the largest threat to their political freedom – when the consistent results of Taiwanese elections show otherwise. A lot of the fearmongering scenarios I've seen also seem to suppose that the Taiwanese government would do nothing and simply wait for an invasion or a blockade or other scenario to take place--a view that basically sees Taiwan as having no agency."

[Ayytaly]

Romans were pretty cool until guys like Nero started to rule.

No, I'm saying that Rome colonised all those place

True, but at least present-day Germany (Germania) stayed predominantly Germanic.

The United States--on the other hand--is less than 3% American, thanks to Anglos.

That's the difference between Mediterranean Empires and Germanic ones.

[Trollzyn the Infinite]

Here's a good counter-perspective from a Taiwanese-American.

Brian Hioe notes that China has not yet developed the capability to conduct an invasion and a long-term occupation of the island, and may not be able to do so for a few more decades. The PLA's own timeline is to retake Taiwan by the PRC's centennial - 2049 - "with a gap of several decades allowing adequate hypothetical time to build such capacity."

Such an invasion plan would also be known in advance, and the first country to react to such a threat would not be the US - it would be Taiwan. "It is unlikely there would not be some form of international response during that window of time, nor that the Taiwanese government would simply wait with its arms folded during that period for an invasion to take place."

There are other reasons, and the article has a bit of length, but Hioe points out that "fearmongering doesn't help, it lowers the will to resist and, to be blunt, I oftentimes find that it comes from a place of contempt regarding Taiwanese."

"That is, viewing Taiwanese as infantile and unconcerned about the largest threat to their political freedom – when the consistent results of Taiwanese elections show otherwise. A lot of the fearmongering scenarios I've seen also seem to suppose that the Taiwanese government would do nothing and simply wait for an invasion or a blockade or other scenario to take place--a view that basically sees Taiwan as having no agency."

What he's basically trying to say is that the ROC has the stones to stand up to the CCP.

(pun intended; fuck you, I'm hilarious)

[Pasong Tirad]

Here's a good counter-perspective from a Taiwanese-American.

Brian Hioe notes that China has not yet developed the capability to conduct an invasion and a long-term occupation of the island, and may not be able to do so for a few more decades. The PLA's own timeline is to retake Taiwan by the PRC's centennial - 2049 - "with a gap of several decades allowing adequate hypothetical time to build such capacity."

Such an invasion plan would also be known in advance, and the first country to react to such a threat would not be the US - it would be Taiwan. "It is unlikely there would not be some form of international response during that window of time, nor that the Taiwanese government would simply wait with its arms folded during that period for an invasion to take place."

There are other reasons, and the article has a bit of length, but Hioe points out that "fearmongering doesn't help, it lowers the will to resist and, to be blunt, I oftentimes find that it comes from a place of contempt regarding Taiwanese."

"That is, viewing Taiwanese as infantile and unconcerned about the largest threat to their political freedom – when the consistent results of Taiwanese elections show otherwise. A lot of the fearmongering scenarios I've seen also seem to suppose that the Taiwanese government would do nothing and simply wait for an invasion or a blockade or other scenario to take place--a view that basically sees Taiwan as having no agency."

What he's basically trying to say is that the ROC has the stones to stand up to the CCP.

(pun intended; fuck you, I'm hilarious)

Basically, yes, even in the unlikely scenario that Taiwan doesn't get any kind of support from the US or anyone else, it reeks of contempt (and maybe even a little bit of racism) to believe that Taiwan will just surrender and let the PRC occupy the island with open arms.

[Nakena]

I am fairly certain the ROC will put up a good and heavy fight and there will be severe losses inflicted to the communist aggressors should they try to take Taiwan. All the more when US and other western nations assist them.

Vietnam also offers the possibility of second front in the south, that will keep significant PRC military forces there.

[Rusozak]

I am fairly certain the ROC will put up a good and heavy fight and there will be severe losses inflicted to the communist aggressors should they try to take Taiwan. All the more when US and other western nations assist them.

Vietnam also offers the possibility of second front in the south, that will keep significant PRC military forces there.

Would Vietnam really intervene over Taiwan? I know they and the PRC don't have the best relationship but it doesn't seem worth it from a diplomatic standpoint.

[Glorious Hong Kong]

Here's a good counter-perspective from a Taiwanese-American.

Brian Hioe notes that China has not yet developed the capability to conduct an invasion and a long-term occupation of the island, and may not be able to do so for a few more decades. The PLA's own timeline is to retake Taiwan by the PRC's centennial - 2049 - "with a gap of several decades allowing adequate hypothetical time to build such capacity."

Such an invasion plan would also be known in advance, and the first country to react to such a threat would not be the US - it would be Taiwan. "It is unlikely there would not be some form of international response during that window of time, nor that the Taiwanese government would simply wait with its arms folded during that period for an invasion to take place."

There are other reasons, and the article has a bit of length, but Hioe points out that "fearmongering doesn't help, it lowers the will to resist and, to be blunt, I oftentimes find that it comes from a place of contempt regarding Taiwanese."

"That is, viewing Taiwanese as infantile and unconcerned about the largest threat to their political freedom – when the consistent results of Taiwanese elections show otherwise. A lot of the fearmongering scenarios I've seen also seem to suppose that the Taiwanese government would do nothing and simply wait for an invasion or a blockade or other scenario to take place--a view that basically sees Taiwan as having no agency."

Personally, I've never infantilized Taiwanese people as lacking in agency and in need of "saving". I'm not woke in any way. I just think that despite their ever-constant vigilance, the island is going to be overwhelmed by sheer force of numbers anyway.

But is it not the case that 300 Spartans are evenly matched vs 700,000 invading Persian forces?

The PLA will be kicked down the bleachers like the guy in that viral video from Hong Kong that 300 got its "This is Sparta" inspiration from.

[Nakena]

I am fairly certain the ROC will put up a good and heavy fight and there will be severe losses inflicted to the communist aggressors should they try to take Taiwan. All the more when US and other western nations assist them.

Vietnam also offers the possibility of second front in the south, that will keep significant PRC military forces there.

Would Vietnam really intervene over Taiwan? I know they and the PRC don't have the best relationship but it doesn't seem worth it from a diplomatic standpoint.

Well it would be a reverse for Deng's intervention in 1979 and an attack on Taiwan would send shockwaves across the regions and other countries might be next. Neither India or Vietnam will stand idle by. So a combined allied force including Vietnam could open a second front in the south, even if they act purely defensive, Beijing would have to divert significant troops and assets there. Same with India. All things that can deter, delay or make an invasion of Taiwan a lot more difficult.

[Islamic Holy Sites]

Would Vietnam really intervene over Taiwan? I know they and the PRC don't have the best relationship but it doesn't seem worth it from a diplomatic standpoint.

Well it would be a reverse for Deng's intervention in 1979 and an attack on Taiwan would send shockwaves across the regions and other countries might be next. Neither India or Vietnam will stand idle by. So a combined allied force including Vietnam could open a second front in the south, even if they act purely defensive, Beijing would have to divert significant troops and assets there. Same with India. All things that can deter, delay or make an invasion of Taiwan a lot more difficult.

Yes, well the reasonable thing to do is to improve relations with China, not declare war on them. As demonstrated when Vietnam gave a huge pain to the French and the USA and managed to defeat them, Vietnam is not worth invading.

[Trollzyn the Infinite]

Well it would be a reverse for Deng's intervention in 1979 and an attack on Taiwan would send shockwaves across the regions and other countries might be next. Neither India or Vietnam will stand idle by. So a combined allied force including Vietnam could open a second front in the south, even if they act purely defensive, Beijing would have to divert significant troops and assets there. Same with India. All things that can deter, delay or make an invasion of Taiwan a lot more difficult.

Yes, well the reasonable thing to do is to improve relations with China, not declare war on them. As demonstrated when Vietnam gave a huge pain to the French and the USA and managed to defeat them, Vietnam is not worth invading.

We should any country try to improve relations with the PRC when Beijing has proven time and again that they possess the exact same imperialist mindset as Washington and Moscow? Worse than the latter two, actually. Moscow and Washington can at least maintain cordial relations with other countries without trying to exert pressure on them. Beijing can't even do that.

[Islamic Holy Sites]

Yes, well the reasonable thing to do is to improve relations with China, not declare war on them. As demonstrated when Vietnam gave a huge pain to the French and the USA and managed to defeat them, Vietnam is not worth invading.

We should any country try to improve relations with the PRC when Beijing has proven time and again that they possess the exact same imperialist mindset as Washington and Moscow? Worse than the latter two, actually. Moscow and Washington can at least maintain cordial relations with other countries without trying to exert pressure on them. Beijing can't even do that.

Well, Vietnam is going to be a huge, sticky mess if China invades and Vietnam is screwed if it attacks China. There is no winner in this situation. Why would they want to go to war with each other?

[Northern Socialist Council Republics]

Well, Vietnam is going to be a huge, sticky mess if China invades and Vietnam is screwed if it attacks China. There is no winner in this situation. Why would they want to go to war with each other?

Governments, historically speaking, do not have a particularly good track record of acting in accordance to the interests of their citizens. Just because it would not be in the Chinese national interests to go to war with Vietnam doesn't mean it won't happen. Time and again we've seen wars break out even over small crises that nobody really thinks is worth fighting over, because neither side wants to take the positional hit of backing down from their stated positions.

This is especially true for Vietnam and Taiwan, both of which have ongoing territorial disputes against China. Neither country will be particularly comfortable in the Chinese sphere of influence, and so both will seek to avoid being pressed into it as long as someone else continues to offer even a vaguely tolerable alternative.

[Kubra]

I'm not entirely sure the Portuguese, Spanish, Italian or French colonial empires would agree.

Empires founded by Germanics, mind you.

Portugal by Vandals

Spain by Visigoths

Italy by Lombards

France by the Frankish (hence the name)

And, of course, Britain by Anglo-Saxons

He says, as he speaks a thoroughly normanised language
the french vikings won, sorry folks

Here's a good counter-perspective from a Taiwanese-American.

Brian Hioe notes that China has not yet developed the capability to conduct an invasion and a long-term occupation of the island, and may not be able to do so for a few more decades. The PLA's own timeline is to retake Taiwan by the PRC's centennial - 2049 - "with a gap of several decades allowing adequate hypothetical time to build such capacity."

Such an invasion plan would also be known in advance, and the first country to react to such a threat would not be the US - it would be Taiwan. "It is unlikely there would not be some form of international response during that window of time, nor that the Taiwanese government would simply wait with its arms folded during that period for an invasion to take place."

There are other reasons, and the article has a bit of length, but Hioe points out that "fearmongering doesn't help, it lowers the will to resist and, to be blunt, I oftentimes find that it comes from a place of contempt regarding Taiwanese."

"That is, viewing Taiwanese as infantile and unconcerned about the largest threat to their political freedom – when the consistent results of Taiwanese elections show otherwise. A lot of the fearmongering scenarios I've seen also seem to suppose that the Taiwanese government would do nothing and simply wait for an invasion or a blockade or other scenario to take place--a view that basically sees Taiwan as having no agency."

Personally, I've never infantilized Taiwanese people as lacking in agency and in need of "saving". I'm not woke in any way. I just think that despite their ever-constant vigilance, the island is going to be overwhelmed by sheer force of numbers anyway.

But is it not the case that 300 Spartans are evenly matched vs 700,000 invading Persian forces?

The PLA will be kicked down the bleachers like the guy in that viral video from Hong Kong that 300 got its "This is Sparta" inspiration from.

spears and shields are not really comparable to high explosives and their methods of delivery

[Punished UMN]

What about Rome eh?

Romans were pretty cool until guys like Nero started to rule.

What about the part where they staged an international incident in order to exterminate or enslave the entire Carthaginian population?

[Punished UMN]

Yes, well the reasonable thing to do is to improve relations with China, not declare war on them. As demonstrated when Vietnam gave a huge pain to the French and the USA and managed to defeat them, Vietnam is not worth invading.

We should any country try to improve relations with the PRC when Beijing has proven time and again that they possess the exact same imperialist mindset as Washington and Moscow? Worse than the latter two, actually. Moscow and Washington can at least maintain cordial relations with other countries without trying to exert pressure on them. Beijing can't even do that.

It's called bandwagoning. China isn't the only country for whom the geopolitical status quo is not really advantageous, and as they put the finishing touches on being a superpower, it's very possible that other disgruntled countries (e.g. Russia) will find some way to cooperate with them in-order to piggy-back off of their success. This is basically how the Axis formed in WWII.

[Ayytaly]

Romans were pretty cool until guys like Nero started to rule.

What about the part where they staged an international incident in order to exterminate or enslave the entire Carthaginian population?

You're talking about Numidia, right?

We should any country try to improve relations with the PRC when Beijing has proven time and again that they possess the exact same imperialist mindset as Washington and Moscow? Worse than the latter two, actually. Moscow and Washington can at least maintain cordial relations with other countries without trying to exert pressure on them. Beijing can't even do that.

It's called bandwagoning. China isn't the only country for whom the geopolitical status quo is not really advantageous, and as they put the finishing touches on being a superpower, it's very possible that other disgruntled countries (e.g. Russia) will find some way to cooperate with them in-order to piggy-back off of their success. This is basically how the Axis formed in WWII.

Doing business with Beijing is more rational than doing business with the Kremlin. Compared to Putin, Xi is far more transparent.

[FutureAmerica]

Taiwan is quite mountainous and is a very difficult island to invade successfully. The PLA is so corrupt, they will embarrass China again if they try to invade. The CCP is only going to use psychological warfare on Taiwan and it's not working. A full scale invasion by the PLA will be the worse military disaster in World history. The US won't need to do much to help defend Taiwan. The presence of the USN alone will scare off the PLA and they will retreat.

[FutureAmerica]

Given the proximity I don't think anyone can defend Taiwan if China is really hell bent. Avenge Taiwan, maybe, but any full scale offensive by China would be over by the time anyone else can respond with significant force.

The PLA is nowhere close to invading an island. They don't even have a proper marine corp. They can't even take Kinmen island which is in one of their major harbors.

[FutureAmerica]

Taiwan is a part of China. I hope for peaceful reunification.

The problem here is the USA, they are trying to divide the Chinese people and make them fight with each other. You only have to look at a world map and ask the real question here... what is America, a North American country, doing an entire giant ocean away in Asia?

At the end of the day, the PRC is minding its own business. Other countries are trying to encroach. But times have changed, this isn’t the 1800s anymore. I think that’s what many governments have to understand.

China is also trying to divide the US and create division just like Russia is doing. The PRC is not minding its own business and is trying to influence politics around the World. You are blind if you don't see this.

[Rusozak]

Taiwan is a part of China. I hope for peaceful reunification.

The problem here is the USA, they are trying to divide the Chinese people and make them fight with each other. You only have to look at a world map and ask the real question here... what is America, a North American country, doing an entire giant ocean away in Asia?

At the end of the day, the PRC is minding its own business. Other countries are trying to encroach. But times have changed, this isn’t the 1800s anymore. I think that’s what many governments have to understand.

China is also trying to divide the US and create division just like Russia is doing. The PRC is not minding its own business and is trying to influence politics around the World. You are blind if you don't see this.

Exactly. Not having boots on foreign soil doesn't mean they're minding their own business. People seem to forget that.

[Islamic Holy Sites]

Taiwan is a part of China. I hope for peaceful reunification.

The problem here is the USA, they are trying to divide the Chinese people and make them fight with each other. You only have to look at a world map and ask the real question here... what is America, a North American country, doing an entire giant ocean away in Asia?

At the end of the day, the PRC is minding its own business. Other countries are trying to encroach. But times have changed, this isn’t the 1800s anymore. I think that’s what many governments have to understand.

China is also trying to divide the US and create division just like Russia is doing. The PRC is not minding its own business and is trying to influence politics around the World. You are blind if you don't see this.

True. But you don't see the US peacefully keeping to it's business either. That's why I hate both.

[Ethel mermania]

There are 1.4 billion in the PRC, there are 23 million in the ROC. If the PRC loses 3 - 1, they still overwhelm the ROC. If you think xi cares if he kills 15 million citizens and troops to take back Taiwan i got a bridge in Brooklyn i would like to sell you.

[Kubra]

There are 1.4 billion in the PRC, there are 23 million in the ROC. If the PRC loses 3 - 1, they still overwhelm the ROC. If you think xi cares if he kills 15 million citizens and troops to take back Taiwan i got a bridge in Brooklyn i would like to sell you.

Plus 3:1 is sort of a very conventional ratio for casualties on the offensive.