French Politics Thread I: Borne to be wild

[Thermodolia]

A year is a long time in politics, and a lot can happen before then, but Macron seems likely to win it. By default.

Unfortunately. Though it’s looking like Le Pen will win in the first round. Though I wonder if Bertrand might slip in and knock Macron out. Could happen.

Le Pen and Bertrand and the death of the French left.

I despise his right-wing economics and his lack of serious action on environmental issues. As a vegan who wants action on animal welfare, I detest his submissiveness to lobbying from the meat industry and from hunters - his refusal to do anything to even just alleviate the suffering of sentient beings in industrial farming and in blood "sports". His government' attempts to undermine the selling of vegan food products make it impossible for me to want to vote for him or his party.

This entire paragraph is just eye roll inducing nuttiness

Despite all of that, if I vote for Mélenchon, it won't be with great enthusiasm. I view myself as being on the left, but I firmly oppose what Maajid Nawaz in Britain rightly calls the "regressive Left" - the corrosive cultural relativism, racialism, self-bashing virtue-signalling and wokery that has taken over parts of the left in Britain and North America and that has now seeped into Mélenchon's party as it seeks to gain votes from silly young (and not so young) people who've embraced those sorts of beliefs. Mélenchon himself still emphasises laïcité et civic republican principles - but that's not what everyone in his movement believes in. There are those who, rather than want to work on bringing us all together as citizens, seem to want to atomise us into separate ethnic, religious and gendered "communities" with supposedly separate, opposite and irreconcilable interests. And that, to me, seems not just wrong but very dangerous.

I definitely agree that the woke nuttery from the Anglo world is downright dangerous but I disagree that Mélenchon is the best to fight it. I personally believe that Le Pen would be better on that front. Macron just strikes me as an opportunist who doesn’t actually care about anything

Also is Cheminade running again? If he is I want to see what weird shit he comes up with this time

[Kilobugya]

Though I wonder if Bertrand might slip in and knock Macron out. Could happen.

I doubt so. He's much less charismatic and well-known that Macron, and being at LR, he's more seen as something of the past, and linked with the downfall of Sarkozy. That might happen if Macron continues to accumulate blunders in his response to the pandemic, but else I don't see Bertrand getting more votes than Macron in the first round.

[Thermodolia]

Though I wonder if Bertrand might slip in and knock Macron out. Could happen.

I doubt so. He's much less charismatic and well-known that Macron, and being at LR, he's more seen as something of the past, and linked with the downfall of Sarkozy. That might happen if Macron continues to accumulate blunders in his response to the pandemic, but else I don't see Bertrand getting more votes than Macron in the first round.

True the downfall of Sarkozy would definitely hamper his campaign. The last polls put out back in late January had Macron at 24%, Bertrand at 16% and Le Pen at 26% so there is a slight possibility that Bertrand could advance close enough to remove Macron.

Though like you say Sarkozy is probably his downfall

[Major-Tom]

We'll see if Macron's rightward pivots are a gamble that was worth the inherent risk come 2022. I get the feeling it could backfire.

[Ariddia]

This entire paragraph is just eye roll inducing nuttiness

No, that's just your unthinking assumptions. My position on animal well-being is pure unemotional rationality. I understand why a lot of people don't want to think seriously about it, but they can't then claim a position of reason.

This isn't the place for an in-depth debate on the moral imperatives resulting from animal sentience, though. I was simply explaining part of my disgust at Macron.

I definitely agree that the woke nuttery from the Anglo world is downright dangerous but I disagree that Mélenchon is the best to fight it. I personally believe that Le Pen would be better on that front. Macron just strikes me as an opportunist who doesn’t actually care about anything

I didn't say Mélenchon is best-placed to oppose that; on the contrary, I said it's a reason why I might not vote for him. Le Pen, as Kilobugya rightly said, may not be ideologically driven herself, but her party is still full of what it was founded with: fascists, antisemites, racists, economic neoliberals who don't give a damn about the working man, and an assortment of cranks. Macron, yes, is just an opportunist who gives the distinct impression of being President only for his own interest.

Also is Cheminade running again? If he is I want to see what weird shit he comes up with this time

Heh. That would be amusing, yes.

[Madrinpoor]

Though I wonder if Bertrand might slip in and knock Macron out. Could happen.

I doubt so. He's much less charismatic and well-known that Macron, and being at LR, he's more seen as something of the past, and linked with the downfall of Sarkozy. That might happen if Macron continues to accumulate blunders in his response to the pandemic, but else I don't see Bertrand getting more votes than Macron in the first round.

Me neither. Many in the centre left will still vote for Macron because they do not see another viable option, and Macron has been working to gain the centre right. No way two right-wingers will be able to move to the second round.

[Chan Island]

Gotta admit I rather liked Macron in 2017, and if I could vote I would have enthusiastically supported him even in the first round back then.

Now, I am much more cool. Not only have my politics generally shifted to the left on a lot of economic questions, but he has proven to be a very tin-eared leader. The yellow-vest protests shouldn't have been met with such force, especially at first when they were bringing in completely legitimate demands. Macron turned Paris into a battlefield for no good reason. He has also worked to be nothing but the president for the rich, and leaves others behind. Including the covid crisis when he scaremongered about Astra-Zeneca's vaccine, the damage of which he is still having to bust his ass to try and cover up.

But that said, I cannot say who else to endorse. Le Pen is an obvious no-no, and Bertrand would be silly, and Melenchon is anti-EU which I cannot accept.

So who does that leave? Jadot? Hidalgo? Or has the list of leftie candidates expanded again just to make sure they are eternally split again?

[Madrinpoor]

Gotta admit I rather liked Macron in 2017, and if I could vote I would have enthusiastically supported him even in the first round back then.

Now, I am much more cool. Not only have my politics generally shifted to the left on a lot of economic questions, but he has proven to be a very tin-eared leader. The yellow-vest protests shouldn't have been met with such force, especially at first when they were bringing in completely legitimate demands. Macron turned Paris into a battlefield for no good reason. He has also worked to be nothing but the president for the rich, and leaves others behind. Including the covid crisis when he scaremongered about Astra-Zeneca's vaccine, the damage of which he is still having to bust his ass to try and cover up.

But that said, I cannot say who else to endorse. Le Pen is an obvious no-no, and Bertrand would be silly, and Melenchon is anti-EU which I cannot accept.

So who does that leave? Jadot? Hidalgo? Or has the list of leftie candidates expanded again just to make sure they are eternally split again?

Which means that the left vote will once again be split, because many people are thinking the same things as you. And Macron and Le Pen make it to the second round again. Then the leftists who cannot stand Le Pen vote for Macron, because who else can they vote for, again. And then Macron wins again. Unless this changes, Macron will win the second round every time. The only thing he can possibly do to change this is perpetrate a complete disaster, on a bigger scale than his Covid management, which, I'll admit, has much to be desired. But Macron will not do this, because almost all of what he does is for a political reason. He does not like risks and will not gamble on something he will lose big on. That is the way he was elected, as an outsider in the centre of the political spectrum. Unlike Trump or Le Pen or Tsiparas or any of the "normal" outsiders, he cannot use radical talk to win over supporters, because he is the opposite of radical. But he is the opposite of traditional. He is Macron. And Macron will keep winning like this for a long time. Until LREM tears its fragile self apart.

[Kilobugya]

Melenchon is anti-EU which I cannot accept.

Melenchon isn't exactly anti-EU, he's more opposed to the way the EU currently works that against EU itself. Like being opposed to the 5th Republic here doesn't mean he's anti-republican, but that he wants a different 6th Republic. But I agree he's sometimes ambivalent and unclear about how he'll handle the EU topic, if (and when) the rest of EU doesn't go on with the way he wants to change it. We at PCF are clearer in that we want a deep reform of EU, that we are ready to disobey EU on a few topics, but that we don't want in any case to get France out of EU or the euro.

So who does that leave? Jadot? Hidalgo? Or has the list of leftie candidates expanded again just to make sure they are eternally split again?

That's the eternal drama of the left... being unable to unite, both for good (real difference in positions/strategies) and bad (hyperinflated egos and silly feuds) reasons.

[Kilobugya]

Which means that the left vote will once again be split, because many people are thinking the same things as you.

Well, one year is a long time, and I still have a thin hope that the left will come to its sense and not commit suicide by having 5+ candidates in the first round, ensuring it's eliminated from the second round. But I've to admit so far it looks very unlikely...

And Macron will keep winning like this for a long time. Until LREM tears its fragile self apart.

Well, Macron will be term-limited in 2027. And since it's a very personal thing, I'm not sure anyone else from LREM could take the gravel from him afterwards. But having to suffer 6 more years of Macron will be very, very hard. The country will be a terrible state, in 2027, if he even manages to complete his term. In such a terrible state that I've no idea what would happen, at all.

[Madrinpoor]

Which means that the left vote will once again be split, because many people are thinking the same things as you.

Well, one year is a long time, and I still have a thin hope that the left will come to its sense and not commit suicide by having 5+ candidates in the first round, ensuring it's eliminated from the second round. But I've to admit so far it looks very unlikely...

And Macron will keep winning like this for a long time. Until LREM tears its fragile self apart.

Well, Macron will be term-limited in 2027. And since it's a very personal thing, I'm not sure anyone else from LREM could take the gravel from him afterwards. But having to suffer 6 more years of Macron will be very, very hard. The country will be a terrible state, in 2027, if he even manages to complete his term. In such a terrible state that I've no idea what would happen, at all.

I hope that LREM can find a way to move past Macron and find a more left-friendly candidate as opposed to Macron's right-shifting stance. Specifically, "Islamic-leftism", are you kidding me LREM? A moderate centrist centre-left candidate could very well be produced by LREM, and I dearly hope one comes about.

[Madrinpoor]

This thread has become very quiet. How sad.

[Shrillland]

This thread has become very quiet. How sad.

It happens. Don't be discouraged, post news that could be relevant from time to time, you'd be surprised how often debate will crop up.

[Kowani]

France to speed up declassification of secret archives on Algeria War

The French presidency said in a statement that archive services will now be allowed to use a new procedure to declassify documents from 1970 and earlier that were previously being held secret for national security purposes. This includes archives related to Algeria War, the statement said.

Under French laws, almost all archives of the French state, including on defense and security issues, should be made available to the public after 50 years except information that could compromise some people's security. Yet a complex and long request process was preventing researchers and academics from working on these archives.

The new procedure will “significantly reduce the delay,” the French presidency said.

[Madrinpoor]

This thread has become very quiet. How sad.

It happens. Don't be discouraged, post news that could be relevant from time to time, you'd be surprised how often debate will crop up.

Thank you! This is my first time running a thread so I do not know what to expect.

[Shrillland]

France to speed up declassification of secret archives on Algeria War

The French presidency said in a statement that archive services will now be allowed to use a new procedure to declassify documents from 1970 and earlier that were previously being held secret for national security purposes. This includes archives related to Algeria War, the statement said.

Under French laws, almost all archives of the French state, including on defense and security issues, should be made available to the public after 50 years except information that could compromise some people's security. Yet a complex and long request process was preventing researchers and academics from working on these archives.

The new procedure will “significantly reduce the delay,” the French presidency said.

Delay...delay because they don't want the world to know just how many atrocities the French committed in trying to keep Algeria.

[Madrinpoor]

France to speed up declassification of secret archives on Algeria War

The French presidency said in a statement that archive services will now be allowed to use a new procedure to declassify documents from 1970 and earlier that were previously being held secret for national security purposes. This includes archives related to Algeria War, the statement said.

Under French laws, almost all archives of the French state, including on defense and security issues, should be made available to the public after 50 years except information that could compromise some people's security. Yet a complex and long request process was preventing researchers and academics from working on these archives.

The new procedure will “significantly reduce the delay,” the French presidency said.

Delay...delay because they don't want the world to know just how many atrocities the French committed in trying to keep Algeria.

Macron JUST apologized that the French killed Ali Boumendjel. After so many years. Change comes way too slow in this world.

[Kilobugya]

France to speed up declassification of secret archives on Algeria War

Macron slowly acknowledging the crimes and opening archives about Algeria War is one of the very good thing he ever did.

[Kowani]

France to speed up declassification of secret archives on Algeria War

Macron slowly acknowledging the crimes and opening archives about Algeria War is one of the very good thing he ever did.

France to speed up declassification of secret archives on Algeria War

The French presidency said in a statement that archive services will now be allowed to use a new procedure to declassify documents from 1970 and earlier that were previously being held secret for national security purposes. This includes archives related to Algeria War, the statement said.

Under French laws, almost all archives of the French state, including on defense and security issues, should be made available to the public after 50 years except information that could compromise some people's security. Yet a complex and long request process was preventing researchers and academics from working on these archives.

The new procedure will “significantly reduce the delay,” the French presidency said.

Delay...delay because they don't want the world to know just how many atrocities the French committed in trying to keep Algeria.

Delay...delay because they don't want the world to know just how many atrocities the French committed in trying to keep Algeria.

Macron JUST apologized that the French killed Ali Boumendjel. After so many years. Change comes way too slow in this world.

Better late than never, I suppose
At the very least, the truth will be known

[Madrinpoor]

Macron slowly acknowledging the crimes and opening archives about Algeria War is one of the very good thing he ever did.

Delay...delay because they don't want the world to know just how many atrocities the French committed in trying to keep Algeria.

Macron JUST apologized that the French killed Ali Boumendjel. After so many years. Change comes way too slow in this world.

Better late than never, I suppose
At the very least, the truth will be known

I suppose, but given that Boumendjel's widow is dead now, the truth was used just as a political tool to make France look better internationally.

[Shrillland]

Latest Elabe poll shows 43% of voters now think a Le Pen victory in next year's Presidential vote is likely

[Kilobugya]

Latest Elabe poll shows 43% of voters now think a Le Pen victory in next year's Presidential vote is likely

I'm not even surprised. Macron is the only one who can lose against Le Pen, and everything is done for those two to face each other in the second round (even by the "left" unable to unite). But one year is a loooong time in politics, especially those days.

[Madrinpoor]

Latest Elabe poll shows 43% of voters now think a Le Pen victory in next year's Presidential vote is likely

I'm not even surprised. Macron is the only one who can lose against Le Pen, and everything is done for those two to face each other in the second round (even by the "left" unable to unite). But one year is a loooong time in politics, especially those days.

It seems that more probable that someone like Melenchon will make it to the second round than Le Pen, because I get the feeling that Macron will be able to gather the centre right, who would otherwise vote for Le Pen, but alienate the left in the meantime. It is still very early to say.

[Madrinpoor]

I am changing the poll.

[Kilobugya]

It seems that more probable that someone like Melenchon will make it to the second round than Le Pen, because I get the feeling that Macron will be able to gather the centre right, who would otherwise vote for Le Pen, but alienate the left in the meantime. It is still very early to say.

The key to me is the division of the left. As long as we have FI (Mélenchon), EELV (Jadot), PS (Hidalgo?), and maybe even PCF (Roussel) and a few others, there is no way the left will reach the second round, and it's likely to be Macron-Le Pen. If the left manages to unite, then it can win.