French Politics Thread I: Borne to be wild

[Thermodolia]

Macron's party En Marche is dominating the French legislature. It's going to be a surprise if he faces any significant challenges in the future. It looks stable for his party and his place as Prime Minister.

Not forever though. Unless he can move from a political-outsider type to defining his party as more than a movement, he will die out when interest dies out. Especially when the traditional left and right (Socialists and Republicans) can get back on their feet and actually face him in an election. Right now outsiders like Macron, Melenchon, and Le Pen, who aren't necessarily all mainstream/establishment in my opinion, are getting the benefit of an open political field. But Covid will forever shape Macron's and LREMs chances.

PS isn’t really going to get back on its feet anytime soon. Les Républicains has a better shot at getting back together than PS does.

Though really the only actual challenger Macron has is Le Pen and RN

[Thermodolia]

Prime Minister? Macron is the president not Prime Minister.

Castex is Prime Minister

Yes but Sundiata assumed that Macron was the PM and not president. A lot of Americans automatically tend to think that all European leaders are Prime Ministers

[Thermodolia]

Which is absolutely outrageous to me is that, if there was a single candidate from the left, we would avoid the disastrous Macron-Le Pen second round. But the accumulated feuds and the hyperamplified ego of many of the left makes that almost impossible. That's the tragedy.



I don't agree with that statement. FI is more nationalist than the PCF, and is much moderate in how it wants to change the economy. They are much more social-democrats and conservatives than we are in the PCF, on about all topics. But FI is more "fire-breathing" and revolutionnary in the tone they use, while we, as a 100 years old party that have been through everything, from being outlawed and fighting the nazis to being members of the government a few times, we go at it in a more polite tone, so we may appear to be more moderate. But our policy proposals are to the left of FI.

There is still a possibility that Hidalgo or someone else from the left may emerge as an alternative to Le Pen. The traditional right and left are still in shambles and they can't pull a viable candidate. My best bet for a leftist is probably Melenchon, because he barely missed the runoff last time and of all the leftist possibilities he is the most likely in my opinion.

Melenchon? Hidalgo? Oh hell no

[Sundiata]

Castex is Prime Minister

Yes but Sundiata assumed that Macron was the PM and not president. A lot of Americans automatically tend to think that all European leaders are Prime Ministers

Yes, it's my familiarity with the UK which makes me think that a lot of the time.

[Madrinpoor]

Yes but Sundiata assumed that Macron was the PM and not president. A lot of Americans automatically tend to think that all European leaders are Prime Ministers

Yes, it's my familiarity with the UK which makes me think that a lot of the time.

Its fine, we all make mistakes

[Madrinpoor]

There is still a possibility that Hidalgo or someone else from the left may emerge as an alternative to Le Pen. The traditional right and left are still in shambles and they can't pull a viable candidate. My best bet for a leftist is probably Melenchon, because he barely missed the runoff last time and of all the leftist possibilities he is the most likely in my opinion.

Melenchon? Hidalgo? Oh hell no

I never said that I thought they would win, I just said that of the possible leftists they are the most likely.

[Thermodolia]

Melenchon? Hidalgo? Oh hell no

I never said that I thought they would win, I just said that of the possible leftists they are the most likely.

As much as I dislike Macron id vote for him over those two in the second round.

[Madrinpoor]

I never said that I thought they would win, I just said that of the possible leftists they are the most likely.

As much as I dislike Macron id vote for him over those two in the second round.

I feel like that is the attitude of many people, and why he won the second round so handily in 2017.

[Thermodolia]

As much as I dislike Macron id vote for him over those two in the second round.

I feel like that is the attitude of many people, and why he won the second round so handily in 2017.

It’s why he’ll win again because not a lot of people like RN, which is unfortunate

[Madrinpoor]

I feel like that is the attitude of many people, and why he won the second round so handily in 2017.

It’s why he’ll win again because not a lot of people like RN, which is unfortunate

It is unfortunate that he will win again or that not a lot of people like RN?

[Glorious Hong Kong]

Emmanuel Macron has won me over with his hard line against foreign American wokism and radical Islam. A reasonable centrist like him is my number one pick for re-election.

[Shrillland]

I feel like that is the attitude of many people, and why he won the second round so handily in 2017.

It’s why he’ll win again because not a lot of people like RN, which is unfortunate

I wouldn't call Le Pen having small support unfortunate myself, the last thing France needs at this point is an odd chimera of Trump and De Gaulle.

[Dresderstan]

It’s why he’ll win again because not a lot of people like RN, which is unfortunate

I wouldn't call Le Pen having small support unfortunate myself, the last thing France needs at this point is an odd chimera of Trump and De Gaulle.

Would you rather the alternative be neo-liberalism?

[Thermodolia]

It’s why he’ll win again because not a lot of people like RN, which is unfortunate

It is unfortunate that he will win again or that not a lot of people like RN?

The later. Both work though. But I do tend to support RN

[Shrillland]

I wouldn't call Le Pen having small support unfortunate myself, the last thing France needs at this point is an odd chimera of Trump and De Gaulle.

Would you rather the alternative be neo-liberalism?

No, I'd rather the alternative be Melanchon and LFI, myself. Or Jadot, I'm not picky. Eco-social democracy is the future if we're to have one.

[Kilobugya]

Macron's party En Marche is dominating the French legislature. It's going to be a surprise if he faces any significant challenges in the future. It looks stable for his party and his place as Prime Minister.

He has a relatively small majority in the legislature, and it's not sure at all to hold in 2022, even if he manages to get re-elected president by facing Le Pen on the second round (against about anyone else he would lose). He might be out to get a Pyrrhus victory in 2022 at a very high cost for the country, but even if he does, I don't see LREM holding the power for much longer.

[Kilobugya]

Melenchon? Hidalgo? Oh hell no

I'm not very fond of the two, Mélenchon for being too full of himself and arrogant, Hidalgo for being too center and ambivalent on many issues.

But both would be infinitely better than neofascist Le Pen or that mix of authoritarianism and repression against the "weak" and complete tolerance towards the "strong", of sheer incompetence and absolute arrogance, of disbanding our social model for the well-being a few billionaire, of multiplying racist dog-whistles and sterile scandals, of shielding felons that Macron is.

[Kilobugya]

A reasonable centrist like him is my number one pick for re-election.

"Reasonable centrist" is how Macron presented himself in 2017, it's not at all how he governed the country. He governed the country with massive repression (included hundred of peaceful protesters severely wounded, one dead, several in coma, losing an eye or an hand or being otherwise crippled for life), very right-wing economical policies, complete refusal to listen to anyone disagreeing with him (even after months of strike, millions in the street and supported by 60% of public opinion), handled the pandemics with a mix of sheer incompetence and absolute arrogance, and turned a blind eye to the countless scandals (from corruption to violence to sexual abuses) rocking against his cronies.

[Thermodolia]

Melenchon? Hidalgo? Oh hell no

I'm not very fond of the two, Mélenchon for being too full of himself and arrogant, Hidalgo for being too center and ambivalent on many issues.

But both would be infinitely better than neofascist Le Pen or that mix of authoritarianism and repression against the "weak" and complete tolerance towards the "strong", of sheer incompetence and absolute arrogance, of disbanding our social model for the well-being a few billionaire, of multiplying racist dog-whistles and sterile scandals, of shielding felons that Macron is.

I disagree with the characterization of Le Pen as a neofascist. And I disagree that both of those previously mentioned candidates would be better than her

[Kilobugya]

I disagree with the characterization of Le Pen as a neofascist.

Marine Le Pen might be a bit more of an opportunist, loving media attention and power, without too much commitment to ideology.

But her party was founded by her holocaust-denier and proud torturer of a father Jean-Marie Le Pen, and his filled with people nostalgic of the Third Reich or of Mussolini, wearing nazi tatoo, saying to a Jewish opponent "too bad Hitler didn't finish his job", setting cars on fire to then accuse the local muslism youth (inspired by the Reichstag fire probably). And that's just a few examples.

As for her policies, she's on purpose not very clear, but when you dig a bit it's usual mix of being anti-union/workers' rights, anti-immigration, pro-death penalty, anti-abortion, anti-LGBT rights, and "elites"-bashing when the elites means teachers or scientists, but "elites"-loving when the elites mean the billionaires, that you can find in neofascist party.

Also, she and her party openly supported Trump until the end, even after the assault on the Capitol, that should tell everything.

[Madrinpoor]

I disagree with the characterization of Le Pen as a neofascist.

Marine Le Pen might be a bit more of an opportunist, loving media attention and power, without too much commitment to ideology.

But her party was founded by her holocaust-denier and proud torturer of a father Jean-Marie Le Pen, and his filled with people nostalgic of the Third Reich or of Mussolini, wearing nazi tatoo, saying to a Jewish opponent "too bad Hitler didn't finish his job", setting cars on fire to then accuse the local muslism youth (inspired by the Reichstag fire probably). And that's just a few examples.

As for her policies, she's on purpose not very clear, but when you dig a bit it's usual mix of being anti-union/workers' rights, anti-immigration, pro-death penalty, anti-abortion, anti-LGBT rights, and "elites"-bashing when the elites means teachers or scientists, but "elites"-loving when the elites mean the billionaires, that you can find in neofascist party.

Also, she and her party openly supported Trump until the end, even after the assault on the Capitol, that should tell everything.

He does have a point. Le Pen will lead to the collapse of the EU, if she tries to make France leave, which she might, and also destroy France's image abroad, like Trump did with America. Her anti-immigration policies are getting too much popularity, and it is only a matter of time before she tries something like what happened in Poland. But stopping her will be hard. On the other side, many of the leftists do not achieve enough widespread support to combat Le Pen. The only one that can is Macron. Bertrand could potentially split up the right vote, but it seems unlikely that he can beat Le Pen in the first round. And there is no way both make it to the second round.

[Ariddia]

A year is a long time in politics, and a lot can happen before then, but Macron seems likely to win it. By default.

I despise his right-wing economics and his lack of serious action on environmental issues. As a vegan who wants action on animal welfare, I detest his submissiveness to lobbying from the meat industry and from hunters - his refusal to do anything to even just alleviate the suffering of sentient beings in industrial farming and in blood "sports". His government' attempts to undermine the selling of vegan food products make it impossible for me to want to vote for him or his party.

I'll probably vote for Mélenchon again. His party at least want to keep public services within the public sector rather than move towards privatisations (as though public services should be seen as a market product!); they have a bold plan for a green industrial revolution which makes them the only party taking the climate issue seriously enough; and they're the only ones speaking up and seeking to act in favour of animal well-being.

Despite all of that, if I vote for Mélenchon, it won't be with great enthusiasm. I view myself as being on the left, but I firmly oppose what Maajid Nawaz in Britain rightly calls the "regressive Left" - the corrosive cultural relativism, racialism, self-bashing virtue-signalling and wokery that has taken over parts of the left in Britain and North America and that has now seeped into Mélenchon's party as it seeks to gain votes from silly young (and not so young) people who've embraced those sorts of beliefs. Mélenchon himself still emphasises laïcité et civic republican principles - but that's not what everyone in his movement believes in. There are those who, rather than want to work on bringing us all together as citizens, seem to want to atomise us into separate ethnic, religious and gendered "communities" with supposedly separate, opposite and irreconcilable interests. And that, to me, seems not just wrong but very dangerous.

Which is why I can't yet say for certain whom I'll vote for. Or whether, for the first time in my life, I might vote blank in the first round.

[Madrinpoor]

A year is a long time in politics, and a lot can happen before then, but Macron seems likely to win it. By default.

I despise his right-wing economics and his lack of serious action on environmental issues. As a vegan who wants action on animal welfare, I detest his submissiveness to lobbying from the meat industry and from hunters - his refusal to do anything to even just alleviate the suffering of sentient beings in industrial farming and in blood "sports". His government' attempts to undermine the selling of vegan food products make it impossible for me to want to vote for him or his party.

I'll probably vote for Mélenchon again. His party at least want to keep public services within the public sector rather than move towards privatisations (as though public services should be seen as a market product!); they have a bold plan for a green industrial revolution which makes them the only party taking the climate issue seriously enough; and they're the only ones speaking up and seeking to act in favour of animal well-being.

Despite all of that, if I vote for Mélenchon, it won't be with great enthusiasm. I view myself as being on the left, but I firmly oppose what Maajid Nawaz in Britain rightly calls the "regressive Left" - the corrosive cultural relativism, racialism, self-bashing virtue-signalling and wokery that has taken over parts of the left in Britain and North America and that has now seeped into Mélenchon's party as it seeks to gain votes from silly young (and not so young) people who've embraced those sorts of beliefs. Mélenchon himself still emphasises laïcité et civic republican principles - but that's not what everyone in his movement believes in. There are those who, rather than want to work on bringing us all together as citizens, seem to want to atomise us into separate ethnic, religious and gendered "communities" with supposedly separate, opposite and irreconcilable interests. And that, to me, seems not just wrong but very dangerous.

Which is why I can't yet say for certain whom I'll vote for. Or whether, for the first time in my life, I might vote blank in the first round.

If you are averse to Melenchon's party in some ways, like it seems you are, why not vote for Jadot?

[Ariddia]

If you are averse to Melenchon's party in some ways, like it seems you are, why not vote for Jadot?

I might do. I'd previously found it difficult to take EELV seriously; it seemed to me they lacked clear, bold but practical ideas on climate change and that they focused instead on silly issues (like wanting to demilitarise celebrations of 14 July, or refusing for there to be a town hall Christmas tree). But I've just looked at their current policy positions on the website, and I agree with most of them. I can even sort of forgive them for their silly use of "inclusive writing" ("citoyen.ne.s" !).

I'll be listening to some of Jadot's interviews to find out more about how he positions himself on various issues.

[Kilobugya]

If you are averse to Melenchon's party in some ways, like it seems you are, why not vote for Jadot?

To me Jadot is way too opportunist, reformist, pro-EU as it is now and pro-free market to be able to tackle the deep reforms we need (be it related to climate change or to the dramatic social crisis we are heading to). There is no way I would consider voting for him on the first round. Some other people of EELV, like Eric Piolle, perhaps. But not Jadot, he's on the right-wing of EELV.