French Politics Thread I: Borne to be wild

[4th Canareva Bataillon]

And once again we all pray that the milquetoast neoliberal establishment lapdog wins because his opponent is a fucking fascist.

Why is this true?

[Diuhon]

Will France leave NATO if Le Pen wins?

I doubt it, especially during this Ukraine situation.

See, for all his assholiness, her father had the benefit of a disreputable consistency.

Marine Le Pen is inconsistent, and so she'll bolt out if it means Putin benefits. All the better if it means more people suffer.

And don't worry about Macron -- le Jupiter has wrought this shit upon himself, by going out of his way to traffic in Le Pen-adjacent rhetoric.

[Perikuresu]

Le Pen is more pro-Putin than most in France. She thinks the Ukraine invasion is wrong but thinks France and Russia could become allies if Putin moved out.

So, Russia and France allied again... Germany to build an army and move through Poland... Am I having a deja vu?

we just need the Brits to join arms, and another flare up in the Balkans

[Arisyan]

So, Russia and France allied again... Germany to build an army and move through Poland... Am I having a deja vu?

we just need the Brits to join arms, and another flare up in the Balkans

I mean, Respublika Srpska is trying to leave Bosnia and Herzegovina...

[Mettaton-EX]

Well, it appears I got a tad bit too excited as Le Pen now has a comfortable 600,000 vote lead over Melanchon. Seems like 2017 all over again, this time with an impending nuclear war to shake things up!

It also appears that Hidalgo came almost dead last, only getting beaten out for the position of last place by two minor leftist parties.

I think it's safe to assume that the Socialist Party is basically dead at this point.

It seems like the polling for the Macron/Le Pen match up is quite a bit closer than in 2017. I'd still put my bet on Macron winning, but we will see I suppose.

macron has spent the past five years doing the best he can to convince left-of-centre voters that he's not actually that much better for them than le pen

[Continental Free States]

I'm pretty sure that those who voted for Zemmour are far more likely to vote Le Pen than the ones who voted Mélenchon are to vote Macron. It's not unlikely Macron loses this time.

[Thermodolia]

I'm pretty sure that those who voted for Zemmour are far more likely to vote Le Pen than the ones who voted Mélenchon are to vote Macron. It's not unlikely Macron loses this time.

No a lot of those that voted Melenchon will more than likely end up voting Macron. Id say Le Pen’s chances of winning are pretty low.

Many Melenchon voters didn’t actually vote for him because they liked him but because they where trying to stop Le Pen from getting into the second round. Those people will vote Macron to stop Le Pen

[Perikuresu]

I'm pretty sure that those who voted for Zemmour are far more likely to vote Le Pen than the ones who voted Mélenchon are to vote Macron. It's not unlikely Macron loses this time.

No a lot of those that voted Melenchon will more than likely end up voting Macron. Id say Le Pen’s chances of winning are pretty low.

Many Melenchon voters didn’t actually vote for him because they liked him but because they where trying to stop Le Pen from getting into the second round. Those people will vote Macron to stop Le Pen

I mean, I think it's been repeated more than Americans have made jokes about France surrendering but you got shit, and then uhhhh.... How do I describe Le Pen other than being far right or French Pauline Hanson? Oh yeah, she hates immigration, multiculturalism, and muslims (which is a VAST oversimplification)

[Michel Meilleur]

I'm pretty sure that those who voted for Zemmour are far more likely to vote Le Pen than the ones who voted Mélenchon are to vote Macron. It's not unlikely Macron loses this time.

No a lot of those that voted Melenchon will more than likely end up voting Macron. Id say Le Pen’s chances of winning are pretty low.

Many Melenchon voters didn’t actually vote for him because they liked him but because they where trying to stop Le Pen from getting into the second round. Those people will vote Macron to stop Le Pen

Good share of the working class will go from Mélenchon/Communist party to Le Pen, all the champagne socialists and leftist uni students from Mélenchon/the Greens will transfer to Macron and the hardcore stals and trots will stay at home.

We might reach the 40% / 60 % result this time around but it's rather set in stone that Macron will win, tbh. As things go tho, we might get our first woman president in five years tho.

[Michel Meilleur]

New Caledonia asks for another independence vote/referendum

Damn, the secessionists do be coping hard, lmao.

And once again we all pray that the milquetoast neoliberal establishment lapdog wins because his opponent is a fucking fascist.

Calling every nationalist "fascist" is why the world has lost its meaning to such an extent that peoples like Zemmour can strut his snout into politics because no one listen to the buzz noise anymore.

Yeah, The Republicans technically didn't even field a candidate given that Pecresse is actually a member of Soyons Libres.

Plus, Pecresse only won a bit less than 5% of the vote, and for a while it was looking like she might've gotten into the second round. Same with Zemmour. Seems like the traditional duopoly has been officially broken, for better or worse.

She's begging for 7 millions in donation because she's not getting reimbursed since she had such low score. Getting fucking ratio-ed by the Greens really sent my sides into orbit.

[Shrillland]

Although not pushing for it, Le Pen now says she wouldn't oppose a referendum on EU Secession

[Diuhon]

Although not pushing for it, Le Pen now says she wouldn't oppose a referendum on EU Secession

She floated it, therefore it will happen if she wins.

Don't make it "when", people of France.

[The Huskar Social Union]

France’s Le Pen warns against sending weapons to Ukraine

PARIS (AP) — French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen warned Wednesday against sending any more weapons to Ukraine, and called for a rapprochement between NATO and Russia once Moscow’s war in Ukraine winds down.

Le Pen, an outspoken nationalist who has long ties to Russia, also confirmed that if she unseats President Emmanuel Macron in France’s April 24 presidential runoff, she will pull France out of NATO’s military command and dial back French support for the whole European Union.

Macron, a pro-EU centrist, is facing a harder-than-expected fight to stay in power, in part because the economic impact of the war is hitting poor households the hardest. France’s European partners are worried that a possible Le Pen presidency could undermine Western unity as the U.S. and Europe seek to support Ukraine and end Russia’s ruinous war on its neighbor.

Asked about military aid to Ukraine, Le Pen said she would continue defense and intelligence support.

“(But) I’m more reserved about direct arms deliveries. Why? Because ... the line is thin between aid and becoming a co-belligerent,” the far-right leader said, citing concerns about an “escalation of this conflict that could bring a whole number of countries into a military commitment.”

=CONTINUES=

[Shrillland]

France’s Le Pen warns against sending weapons to Ukraine

PARIS (AP) — French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen warned Wednesday against sending any more weapons to Ukraine, and called for a rapprochement between NATO and Russia once Moscow’s war in Ukraine winds down.

Le Pen, an outspoken nationalist who has long ties to Russia, also confirmed that if she unseats President Emmanuel Macron in France’s April 24 presidential runoff, she will pull France out of NATO’s military command and dial back French support for the whole European Union.

Macron, a pro-EU centrist, is facing a harder-than-expected fight to stay in power, in part because the economic impact of the war is hitting poor households the hardest. France’s European partners are worried that a possible Le Pen presidency could undermine Western unity as the U.S. and Europe seek to support Ukraine and end Russia’s ruinous war on its neighbor.

Asked about military aid to Ukraine, Le Pen said she would continue defense and intelligence support.

“(But) I’m more reserved about direct arms deliveries. Why? Because ... the line is thin between aid and becoming a co-belligerent,” the far-right leader said, citing concerns about an “escalation of this conflict that could bring a whole number of countries into a military commitment.”

=CONTINUES=

She can try to emulate De Gaulle all she wants, but the original really wasn't that great.

[Kilobugya]

Why does Melenchon do so well in Southern France? Didnt he also do quite well there in 2017? Is it just a stronghold for the leftwing in france or is it due to his own popularity etc etc

He most does well in big cities with lots of youth and diverse population, he did arrive first in Paris region, and he did well in Marseille as well. He also did relatively well in Britany (Bretagne) but that's mostly because the extreme right always does poorly there, and in the overseas. French Wikipedia has interesting maps about who arrived #1 and #2 in each departments and each regions https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lec ... ographique

[Kilobugya]

New Caledonia asks for another independence vote/referendum

They got three chances. They boycotted the last one. They don’t get a fourth. The treaty they signed said they’d get only three chances. They knew what they were doing.

They don’t get another try

The treaty they signed said they had three chances... but that both parties should agree on the conditions of each of those referendum. They didn't agree with the conditions of the last one (in part due to Covid) so it doesn't account if you respect the spirit of the treaty.

[Kilobugya]

And once again we all pray that the milquetoast neoliberal establishment lapdog wins because his opponent is a fucking fascist.

That's becoming a recurring nightmare indeed... 3rd time of my life I'll have to vote for a candidate I despise strongly just to block the fascists

[Kilobugya]

I'm pretty sure that those who voted for Zemmour are far more likely to vote Le Pen than the ones who voted Mélenchon are to vote Macron. It's not unlikely Macron loses this time.

It'll be tight. Those who voted for Zemmour will vote Le Pen, those who voted Roussel, Hidalgo and Jadot will vote Macron. The Pécresse vote will split I'm not sure exactly how, and the Mélenchon voters will mostly abstain, and the rest will split their votes - there is a very strong hatred of Macron from within working-class since his handling of the Yellow Vests crisis. I think Macron will win, but much closer, something like 54-46 or 53-47 maybe.

[Greater Miami Shores 3]

I'm pretty sure that those who voted for Zemmour are far more likely to vote Le Pen than the ones who voted Mélenchon are to vote Macron. It's not unlikely Macron loses this time.

It'll be tight. Those who voted for Zemmour will vote Le Pen, those who voted Roussel, Hidalgo and Jadot will vote Macron. The Pécresse vote will split I'm not sure exactly how, and the Mélenchon voters will mostly abstain, and the rest will split their votes - there is a very strong hatred of Macron from within working-class since his handling of the Yellow Vests crisis. I think Macron will win, but much closer, something like 54-46 or 53-47 maybe.

Your 53 % or 54 % estimate for Macron is not tight, and you don't like him, and they don't like him either.

[The United Penguin Commonwealth]

Can someone explain to me why so many people hate the EU?

[Greater Miami Shores 3]

Can someone explain to me why so many people hate the EU?

Because the leftist, globalist, progressive EU administration, thinks and acts like it is the united states of Europe, not as a union of European nations.

[Thermodolia]

They got three chances. They boycotted the last one. They don’t get a fourth. The treaty they signed said they’d get only three chances. They knew what they were doing.

They don’t get another try

The treaty they signed said they had three chances... but that both parties should agree on the conditions of each of those referendum. They didn't agree with the conditions of the last one (in part due to Covid) so it doesn't account if you respect the spirit of the treaty.

Spirit of the treaty doesn’t matter, they got three tries and they got squat. They don’t get to complain about being stuck now. Maybe they shouldn’t have called the third vote until after the pandemic was over if that was such a major concern.

[Kilobugya]

Can someone explain to me why so many people hate the EU?

Different people hate it for different reasons. Nationalists hate it because they hate all supranational bodies, and because the EU allows free movement of persons within it (so free immigration from one EU country to another). Leftists hate it because of its neoliberal policies, its forced privatization of public services, its "stability pact" that imposes austerity, its "independent" central bank that is very generous towards private banks but can't directly finance states.

[Kilobugya]

Spirit of the treaty doesn’t matter, they got three tries and they got squat. They don’t get to complain about being stuck now. Maybe they shouldn’t have called the third vote until after the pandemic was over if that was such a major concern.

That's what the independentists wanted, the third referendum to be postponed until after the pandemics. Especially because they have quite strict customs about mourning, which weren't really compatible with holding a referendum when so many families had lost a relative. The French government refused to postpone it and insisted to run it in the middle of a pandemics, which to me is a violation of the treaty, and therefore that third chance isn't really "used" yet.

[Thermodolia]

Spirit of the treaty doesn’t matter, they got three tries and they got squat. They don’t get to complain about being stuck now. Maybe they shouldn’t have called the third vote until after the pandemic was over if that was such a major concern.

That's what the independentists wanted, the third referendum to be postponed until after the pandemics. Especially because they have quite strict customs about mourning, which weren't really compatible with holding a referendum when so many families had lost a relative. The French government refused to postpone it and insisted to run it in the middle of a pandemics, which to me is a violation of the treaty, and therefore that third chance isn't really "used" yet.

No they didn’t want it to be postponed until months before the election. If COVID was such a big deal they wouldn’t have held the second one which was also held during COVID and they wouldn’t have even brought up the subject in the legislature.

They the independentists requested a third and final referendum during COVID. They can’t just turn around and claim that referendums shouldn’t have happened due to COVID when they held a referendum during COVID before and when they requested that a third referendum be held during a world wide pandemic.

This isn’t the French governments fault, it’s the independentists. They requested, as is required by the referendum, a new referendum after the second one failed. They requested it in February of 2021, they requested it during the pandemic, they requested it after holding a referendum in October of 2020 without incident. They didn’t ask in September of 2020 to postpone anything due to COVID.

They knew COVID was happening, they knew their customs, they knew there was a strong possibility of people dying from the pandemic yet they decided to go ahead with the referendum anyway in February of 2021 and asked for a final referendum. They could have waited until February of 2022 to ask for that referendum as COVID would have been less of an issue but they didn’t.

Why? Because COVID wasn’t the problem they where going to lose and they didn’t want to. Now they are claiming that they should get another chance when they themselves didn’t give a flying fuck about COVID or their customs for most of the pandemic. Only when polling suggested that they’d lose again did they put up a fuss.

They had their chance. Complaining that they didn’t or got cheated isn’t going to help them