French Politics Thread I: Borne to be wild

[Shrillland]

Bouches-du-Rhône Senator and Marseilles Municipal Councillor Stephane Ravier(RN's only Senator) has endorsed Zemmour over Le Pen

I'm calling it now: Macron vs. Zemmour for the runoff and Macron will end up winning.

Zemmour is polling really badly with 2, 3 days to go.

I would never say never. Le Pen might actually pull it off.

She is within the margin of error, certainly. I think it's unlikely, but far from impossible.

Yeah, but that was two months ago when he was polling better and it seemed Le Pen had stagnated.

[Greater Miami Shores 3]

The important election is the second round election.

[Kindjal]

No, the first round is as important, because this will define who you can vote for on the second round.
This will allow left wing voters to be represented on the second round or not.

[Continental Free States]

No, the first round is as important, because this will define who you can vote for on the second round.
This will allow left wing voters to be represented on the second round or not.

I mean, probably not. Mélenchon is not very likely to gain as many votes as either Le Pen or Macron. Still, I'm curious how this one ends.

[Madrinpoor]

No, the first round is as important, because this will define who you can vote for on the second round.
This will allow left wing voters to be represented on the second round or not.

They won't be. According to the Economist, 92/100 scenarios have Macron v. Le Pen

[The Huskar Social Union]

Oh yeah the first round of the election is on today. More than likely gona be Le Pen vs Macron but will be interesting to see, especially the turnout.

[Crylante]

Exit polling suggests Macron and Le Pen will be facing each other - Macron got about 28%, Le Pen about 24% and Melenchon about 20%.

[Shrillland]

Exit polling suggests Macron and Le Pen will be facing each other - Macron got about 28%, Le Pen about 24% and Melenchon about 20%.

Melanchon's 20% would've been a surprise a month ago, but the Left finally found their footing. The question is who will they go to in a couple of weeks or if they'll just stay home for this less-than-encouraging runoff.

[Shrillland]

Well, Hidalgo''s now endorsing Macron and the abstention rate is up to 26%, just under four points higher than the 2017 First Round. Listening to Melanchon's speech, he's more or less endorsing Macron more out of hate for Le Pen than for support for Macron. Jadot is also endorsing Macron.

[Madrinpoor]

Well, Hidalgo''s now endorsing Macron and the abstention rate is up to 26%, just under four points higher than the 2017 First Round. Listening to Melanchon's speech, he's more or less endorsing Macron more out of hate for Le Pen than for support for Macron. Jadot is also endorsing Macron.

I wish America's absetention rate was 26%

[Shrillland]

Well, Hidalgo''s now endorsing Macron and the abstention rate is up to 26%, just under four points higher than the 2017 First Round. Listening to Melanchon's speech, he's more or less endorsing Macron more out of hate for Le Pen than for support for Macron. Jadot is also endorsing Macron.

I wish America's absetention rate was 26%

As opposed to the 38-40% that we can never seem to drop below? You're not the only one.

[Chan Island]

One day, we will have an election where the second round doesn’t have a Le Pen in it. This election is not that blessed day, but may it happen in future. Getting real tired of their shenanigans.

[Major-Tom]

Well, Hidalgo''s now endorsing Macron and the abstention rate is up to 26%, just under four points higher than the 2017 First Round. Listening to Melanchon's speech, he's more or less endorsing Macron more out of hate for Le Pen than for support for Macron. Jadot is also endorsing Macron.

We'll see how that plays out. IIRC, Melenchon did not give as implicit of endorsement to Macron in 2017 as he is now. If his supporters listen by and large, then Macron can win handily, if not; then LePen still has a shot.

Edit: What fascinates me too is that if even half of Jadot and Hidalgo voters opted for Melenchon, he'd be in the second round. That must sting for him and his supporters.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Why does Melenchon do so well in Southern France? Didnt he also do quite well there in 2017? Is it just a stronghold for the leftwing in france or is it due to his own popularity etc etc

[Thermodolia]

One day, we will have an election where the second round doesn’t have a Le Pen in it. This election is not that blessed day, but may it happen in future. Getting real tired of their shenanigans.

This is only the third time it’s happened. And the first it’s happened back to back. It happened in 2002 (Chirac beat Papa Le Pen 82.2% to 17. and then again in 2017 (Macron beat Le Pen 66.1% to 33.9%) and now in 2022.

The 2002 election was actually a surprise as nobody thought Le Pen would get to the second round. Everyone thought he’d be out but he beat out the PS candidate Jospin by .68%

[Thermodolia]

Well, Hidalgo''s now endorsing Macron and the abstention rate is up to 26%, just under four points higher than the 2017 First Round. Listening to Melanchon's speech, he's more or less endorsing Macron more out of hate for Le Pen than for support for Macron. Jadot is also endorsing Macron.

We'll see how that plays out. IIRC, Melenchon did not give as implicit of endorsement to Macron in 2017 as he is now. If his supporters listen by and large, then Macron can win handily, if not; then LePen still has a shot.

Edit: What fascinates me too is that if even half of Jadot and Hidalgo voters opted for Melenchon, he'd be in the second round. That must sting for him and his supporters.

If he got in the second round Macron would be president too. Le Pen and the rest of the right wing would tell their supporters to vote for Macron over him as would Jadot and Hidalgo as Melenchon is pretty anti-EU

[Shrillland]

Why does Melenchon do so well in Southern France? Didnt he also do quite well there in 2017? Is it just a stronghold for the leftwing in france or is it due to his own popularity etc etc

Well, he is the MP for Marseilles Central, which is the most diverse and one of the more industrial constituencies in the country and a traditional left-wing stronghold, so sort of both.

[Hukhalia]

We'll see how that plays out. IIRC, Melenchon did not give as implicit of endorsement to Macron in 2017 as he is now. If his supporters listen by and large, then Macron can win handily, if not; then LePen still has a shot.

Edit: What fascinates me too is that if even half of Jadot and Hidalgo voters opted for Melenchon, he'd be in the second round. That must sting for him and his supporters.

If he got in the second round Macron would be president too. Le Pen and the rest of the right wing would tell their supporters to vote for Macron over him as would Jadot and Hidalgo as Melenchon is pretty anti-EU

this is part of what makes french politics so insufferable, just the constant circle-jerk around macron's centrist bullshit

[The Huskar Social Union]

Why does Melenchon do so well in Southern France? Didnt he also do quite well there in 2017? Is it just a stronghold for the leftwing in france or is it due to his own popularity etc etc

Well, he is the MP for Marseilles Central, which is the most diverse and one of the more industrial constituencies in the country and a traditional left-wing stronghold, so sort of both.

Cheers

[Vistulange]

So, I'd like to ask as a person who has no clue about French politics beyond what an ordinary English-speaking person can see on BBC and whatnot, what are the differences between Zemmour and Le Pen?

This is a genuine question, so I'd appreciate answers that aren't just "one is a batshit fascist and the other is a Russian asset" or something along those lines.

[Shrillland]

So, I'd like to ask as a person who has no clue about French politics beyond what an ordinary English-speaking person can see on BBC and whatnot, what are the differences between Zemmour and Le Pen?

This is a genuine question, so I'd appreciate answers that aren't just "one is a batshit fascist and the other is a Russian asset" or something along those lines.

Mostly, it's that Le Pen has rebranded the old FN into the new RN and has moderated her rhetoric and even a few of her policies to appeal to a more mainstream audience. She's no longer supporting secession from the EU, for example. Zemmour comes from the hardliners that haven't given up on hard Euroscepticism, though they do still agree on a lot of other economic, social, and immigration-based issues.

[Michel Meilleur]

So, I'd like to ask as a person who has no clue about French politics beyond what an ordinary English-speaking person can see on BBC and whatnot, what are the differences between Zemmour and Le Pen?

This is a genuine question, so I'd appreciate answers that aren't just "one is a batshit fascist and the other is a Russian asset" or something along those lines.

Zemmour is a failed journalist who make his money from saying outrageous shit, getting pearl-clutched at and sued, pearl-clutching in response and then using the generated shitshow to get attention on TV.
Le Pen is a nationalist who is rather left economically and rather right socially. Tbh, it really remind of a joke from les inconnus : "[...] we had to find a middle ground for our slogan between : "Get out Arabs!" and "Welcome in, migrants!", so... Here's what we got : "Maghrebi, please do not leave immediately." "

[Michel Meilleur]

Well, Hidalgo''s now endorsing Macron and the abstention rate is up to 26%, just under four points higher than the 2017 First Round. Listening to Melanchon's speech, he's more or less endorsing Macron more out of hate for Le Pen than for support for Macron. Jadot is also endorsing Macron.

We'll see how that plays out. IIRC, Melenchon did not give as implicit of endorsement to Macron in 2017 as he is now. If his supporters listen by and large, then Macron can win handily, if not; then LePen still has a shot.

Edit: What fascinates me too is that if even half of Jadot and Hidalgo voters opted for Melenchon, he'd be in the second round. That must sting for him and his supporters.

I mean, tbf, if Zemmour hadn't been propped up by the medias either, we would have had the same results. Ngl, the two last elections are depressing in regard to how quickly the establishment will manage to prop up a useful puppet out of thin air to maintain the statu quo, whether it's directly like for Macron or indirectly like for Zemmour.

[Arisyan]

Oh my god Melanchon is way overperforming, there might be a tiny chance he inches his way into the second round. He's currently .7% away from Le Pen.

[Hukhalia]

Oh my god Melanchon is way overperforming, there might be a tiny chance he inches his way into the second round. He's currently .7% away from Le Pen.

tbh if he wins the first round then macron has this in the bag imo. le pen is the only person in france who could feasibly unseat macron.