French Politics Thread I: Borne to be wild

[Kilobugya]

I am changing the poll.

Actually he already was convicted (but sure he appealed) in one affair, and others are still pending. It totally deserves it in my opinion.

[SD_Film Artists]

One of the things which I find interesting with French politics is how quickly the new president smell goes away. Boris has always been Boris and Trump has always been Trump with their usual followers and critics, whereas French presidents fall from grace dramatically. I remember when Hollande was the massiah and then he has very low popularity polls. Macron was the darling of the centre-left and then the yellow vests happened.

[Kilobugya]

One of the things which I find interesting with French politics is how quickly the new president smell goes away. Boris has always been Boris and Trump has always been Trump with their usual followers and critics, whereas French presidents fall from grace dramatically. I remember when Hollande was the massiah and then he has very low popularity polls. Macron was the darling of the centre-left and then the yellow vests happened.

Well, we French are easily disappointed.

But Hollande never really was the messiah. It's that after horrible Sarkozy we had lots of hope it wouldn't be as bad. And he betrayed that hope quite quickly.

For Macron, it's mostly because he's a hype. Macron as a politician was created by mass-media worshiping him and always speaking about him from 2015 to 2017. Once he began to actually implement his neoliberal program and do what we could expect from a rich banker, people started realizing how tricked they were, and they voted for Thatcher, not for a center-left candidate.

[Madrinpoor]

It seems that more probable that someone like Melenchon will make it to the second round than Le Pen, because I get the feeling that Macron will be able to gather the centre right, who would otherwise vote for Le Pen, but alienate the left in the meantime. It is still very early to say.

The key to me is the division of the left. As long as we have FI (Mélenchon), EELV (Jadot), PS (Hidalgo?), and maybe even PCF (Roussel) and a few others, there is no way the left will reach the second round, and it's likely to be Macron-Le Pen. If the left manages to unite, then it can win.

Very true. Maybe they can pull themselves together? But Melenchon looks unlikely to back down for any other candidates, and Jadot and Hidalgo (if she officially runs) will be competing for the left vote. If both Le Pen and Melenchon/someone else from the left can pull together a coalition, then Macron will have a VERY hard time winning reelection. As a centrist (centre-left more realistically, but I consider myself close enough to centre) I think that a Le Pen-Melenchon second round would be a disaster for France. I may disagree with some of what Macron has done recently, but he is essentially a compromise between two radicals. That is how it will be for the foreseeable future — radicals on both sides competing against the centrists.

[Madrinpoor]

I am changing the poll.

Actually he already was convicted (but sure he appealed) in one affair, and others are still pending. It totally deserves it in my opinion.

Yes, I meant to say does he deserve to be. I think he does, and it does not seem like much of a debate. But I had no other poll ideas.

[Kowani]

France begins first military exercise in space

Organized from March 8 to 12, it is a "first for the French armies and even the first in Europe,” according to General Michel Friedling, commander of the CDE. The newly-created US Space Force and the German Space Situational Awareness Centre are also participating in this exercise.

To understand the future needs of the CDE, the exercise aims to assess France’s current capacity to protect its space assets and to monitor an increasingly militarized space. To do so, a series of scenarios were created in which a country with space capabilities would attack another country under French protection. Among the situations studied is the monitoring of a planned re-entry of a space object into the atmosphere, anti-satellite weapon fire, or a satellite being approached for espionage.

[Kilobugya]

As a centrist (centre-left more realistically, but I consider myself close enough to centre) I think that a Le Pen-Melenchon second round would be a disaster for France.

I'm not so fond of Melenchon as a person, he has an hyperinflated ego and a tendency for violent verbal confrontation when it's not required. But his politics are actually not that "radical". He's a left social-democrats ready to do some significant changes to take us of both the economical/social crisis and the environmental crisis, without doing any too drastic change. What he offers is more like a modern version of New Deal, or of what the CNR did in 1944. A significant set of changes for the better, but not a revolution.

I may disagree with some of what Macron has done recently, but he is essentially a compromise between two radicals.

That's the myth that Macron tries to spread, not the reality. Macron is actually a very "radical" president, all set into destroying our social system. Disbanding the working code, privatizing all public services, massively cutting social benefits, massively cutting taxes for the rich, defending transnational corporations when they cheat taxes, exploit workers and destroy the environment. And in order to implement that, he relies heavily on repression, having the most violent police since Algeria War, mutilating and severely wounding hundred of protesters.

[Thermodolia]

I'm not even surprised. Macron is the only one who can lose against Le Pen, and everything is done for those two to face each other in the second round (even by the "left" unable to unite). But one year is a loooong time in politics, especially those days.

It seems that more probable that someone like Melenchon will make it to the second round than Le Pen, because I get the feeling that Macron will be able to gather the centre right, who would otherwise vote for Le Pen, but alienate the left in the meantime. It is still very early to say.

The problem is that Le Pen gets around 27% near consistently that’s extremely hard to overcome and I don’t see Melenchon over coming that. Especially since LR is hovering around 14% and Macron himself at 23%.

It’s going to be Macron against Le Pen, again. And Macron will win it.

[Thermodolia]

The key to me is the division of the left. As long as we have FI (Mélenchon), EELV (Jadot), PS (Hidalgo?), and maybe even PCF (Roussel) and a few others, there is no way the left will reach the second round, and it's likely to be Macron-Le Pen. If the left manages to unite, then it can win.

Very true. Maybe they can pull themselves together? But Melenchon looks unlikely to back down for any other candidates, and Jadot and Hidalgo (if she officially runs) will be competing for the left vote. If both Le Pen and Melenchon/someone else from the left can pull together a coalition, then Macron will have a VERY hard time winning reelection. As a centrist (centre-left more realistically, but I consider myself close enough to centre) I think that a Le Pen-Melenchon second round would be a disaster for France. I may disagree with some of what Macron has done recently, but he is essentially a compromise between two radicals. That is how it will be for the foreseeable future — radicals on both sides competing against the centrists.

I agree that Le Pen - Melenchon would be a disaster for France but only because Melenchon would have possibility of winning.

[Madrinpoor]

Very true. Maybe they can pull themselves together? But Melenchon looks unlikely to back down for any other candidates, and Jadot and Hidalgo (if she officially runs) will be competing for the left vote. If both Le Pen and Melenchon/someone else from the left can pull together a coalition, then Macron will have a VERY hard time winning reelection. As a centrist (centre-left more realistically, but I consider myself close enough to centre) I think that a Le Pen-Melenchon second round would be a disaster for France. I may disagree with some of what Macron has done recently, but he is essentially a compromise between two radicals. That is how it will be for the foreseeable future — radicals on both sides competing against the centrists.

I agree that Le Pen - Melenchon would be a disaster for France but only because Melenchon would have possibility of winning.

At least Melenchon's party does not have roots in racism, unlike Le Pen's

[Thermodolia]

I agree that Le Pen - Melenchon would be a disaster for France but only because Melenchon would have possibility of winning.

At least Melenchon's party does not have roots in racism, unlike Le Pen's

RN isn’t FN anymore. Yes her father is a bastard but he’s not in charge any more. Besides the idea of saying we can’t have Le Pen or RN because they might have been racist is quite silly

[Kilobugya]

RN isn’t FN anymore. Yes her father is a bastard but he’s not in charge any more.

Marine Le Pen is less ideological and more of an opportunist than her father. But the bulk of her party is still made of the same mix of nostalgic of Pétain/Hitler, skinheads, thugs and violent white supremacists than before. If she were to take power, it would be a terrible tragedy.

[Kilobugya]

I'm really outraged by the handling of the Covid-19 crisis by Macron & co. I won't go back in all the past mistakes, but even now they keep piling mistakes upon mistakes. The chaotic and always-changing vaccination policy. The refusal to use legal license and produce vaccines ourselves.

But mostly the denial of direness of the situation. We passed the cap of 90 000 deaths. We have 200-300 deaths a day. Hospitals are completely saturated, people with other pathologies (including serious ones like cancers) see their surgeries rebooked for later days because there is no room.

And since October, we are living in a highly restricted regime, with a curfew at 18:00 (making it impossible for most working people to even buy groceries after work), and all places of culture and entertainment closed. And yet people must pack in the subway to go to work, work in crowded open spaces or factories. Children are kept at 30 in small poorly ventilated room and eat lunch at hundred together in school restaurants.

What's this madness ? It has been one year. Nothing was done to improve air renewal in schools. To alter school restaurants so we don't have hundred of children eating together. To force companies that can to use remote working. To alter worktime where possible so not everyone takes the metro at the same peak hour. To reopen some culture and entertainment places safely (limited number of attendant, ventilation, mandatory masks). And to have a real, strong, but short-term lockdown to break the contamination chains and save thousands of lives.

Since October we are having the worse of two worlds - highly restrictive measures making life reduced to work and TV and nothing less for a very long time, and yet totally inefficient measures that don't stop the high level of circulation of the virus, saturation of hospitals, the thousands of the deaths, and the risk of new more dangerous variants appearing.

The situation is also dramatic from a social and economical point of view - students are making enormous lines at food banks because they no money to eat anymore, between the subsidized "resto U" being close and the impossibility to work in the small evening jobs (such as restaurant waiter) that students often had. Entire sectors (restaurants, culture/entertainment) are on the wedge of complete collapse. What does the gov do ? Refuse to extend RSA (social help given to those above 25 who have no other income) to 18-25 yo and... a reform of unemployment insurance that'll drastically cut benefits for millions.

All that for what ? To "save the economy" ? But this long-lasting semi-lockdown and high death toll actually has disastrous economical effects. And enormous mental health toll. Or is it just to save face, to save Macron's ego, we rejected the advice of his scientists for a new lockdown, and can't change strategy now without admitting he was wrong, something he seems utterly incapable to do ?

[Postauthoritarian America]

I do believe the French have discovered a way to increase viewership at the Oscars...

[Madrinpoor]

I'm really outraged by the handling of the Covid-19 crisis by Macron & co. I won't go back in all the past mistakes, but even now they keep piling mistakes upon mistakes. The chaotic and always-changing vaccination policy. The refusal to use legal license and produce vaccines ourselves.

But mostly the denial of direness of the situation. We passed the cap of 90 000 deaths. We have 200-300 deaths a day. Hospitals are completely saturated, people with other pathologies (including serious ones like cancers) see their surgeries rebooked for later days because there is no room.

And since October, we are living in a highly restricted regime, with a curfew at 18:00 (making it impossible for most working people to even buy groceries after work), and all places of culture and entertainment closed. And yet people must pack in the subway to go to work, work in crowded open spaces or factories. Children are kept at 30 in small poorly ventilated room and eat lunch at hundred together in school restaurants.

What's this madness ? It has been one year. Nothing was done to improve air renewal in schools. To alter school restaurants so we don't have hundred of children eating together. To force companies that can to use remote working. To alter worktime where possible so not everyone takes the metro at the same peak hour. To reopen some culture and entertainment places safely (limited number of attendant, ventilation, mandatory masks). And to have a real, strong, but short-term lockdown to break the contamination chains and save thousands of lives.

Since October we are having the worse of two worlds - highly restrictive measures making life reduced to work and TV and nothing less for a very long time, and yet totally inefficient measures that don't stop the high level of circulation of the virus, saturation of hospitals, the thousands of the deaths, and the risk of new more dangerous variants appearing.

The situation is also dramatic from a social and economical point of view - students are making enormous lines at food banks because they no money to eat anymore, between the subsidized "resto U" being close and the impossibility to work in the small evening jobs (such as restaurant waiter) that students often had. Entire sectors (restaurants, culture/entertainment) are on the wedge of complete collapse. What does the gov do ? Refuse to extend RSA (social help given to those above 25 who have no other income) to 18-25 yo and... a reform of unemployment insurance that'll drastically cut benefits for millions.

All that for what ? To "save the economy" ? But this long-lasting semi-lockdown and high death toll actually has disastrous economical effects. And enormous mental health toll. Or is it just to save face, to save Macron's ego, we rejected the advice of his scientists for a new lockdown, and can't change strategy now without admitting he was wrong, something he seems utterly incapable to do ?

I do have trouble criticizing Macron for that though, compared to much of the rest of the world.

In America, Donald Trump mishandled Covid horribly, allowing hundreds of thousands to die. In Tanzania, the President insists that Covid should be treated with traditional medicines and that vaccines are dangerous. Sweden never locked down and is now paying for that with the lives of their citizens. All over the world there are examples of positive handling, like in Taiwan, South Korea, and New Zealand, and negative examples of Covid management such as that of the US, Sweden, and India. Macron's Covid handling could have been better, but it could have been worse too. The situation is bad for everyone. I doubt that Melenchon or Le Pen or Fillon or Hamon or whoever could have been president would have done a better job because there is not an easy way to know how to handle Covid, especially when it is a new thing that nobody knows how to respond to. France cannot as easily close its borders like New Zealand or Taiwan because our borders are by land and not by sea. We do not have a disease controlling system in place like South Korea does. Macron attempted to maintain his neoliberal economic policies during a time when that was, in retrospect, not the best option. People needed a more steady and secure approach to the economy. But there was not much else to do. My point is, that Macron led the best he could when facing a challenge nobody had an idea how to face. His denial of this is bad, and telling of Macron's character. He is not the outsider he attempted to be in 2017. He is a political wolf, and is willing to do, and not do, what will help him. His handling of Covid was not as good as it could be. But his handling of Covid was not as bad as it could be either. You have to understand how this is affecting EVERY country, and EVERY leader is making mistakes. Macron included.

[Kilobugya]

I do have trouble criticizing Macron for that though, compared to much of the rest of the world.

Well, sure, some did worse, and it's not an easy situation to handle.

But I did point to some very specific failures of his, which in my view have no justification apart from ideological blindness and arrogance. The fact that absolutely was done in over a year to improve ventilation in closed spaces like schools. The fact that he refused a 2-3 weeks lockdown in February when the scientific advisers said it was required. The fact that he continues closing hospitals and beds in the middle of the pandemics. The fact that he imposes on us for a very long time some measures that are very restrictive for our lives but with a very low efficiency against the virus, like the curfew at 18:00. His catastrophic handling of the student crisis. There is no excuse for all of that.

Edit: forgot to say, the whole handling of schools is very much a disaster. Blanquer is still in complete denial that children, while they rarely have severe form of the disease, do carry it. Not only the "protocol" in schools is both inefficient and impossible to follow, but they do utterly stupid things, like when a teacher gets covid and therefore can't teach, they... take the children and spread them in all the other classes ! That's utter madness, the best way to spread the virus. And only because they don't want to close schools, even when there are covid cases in the school, because it would mean allowing parents to skip work, which employers don't want.

[Madrinpoor]

I do have trouble criticizing Macron for that though, compared to much of the rest of the world.

Well, sure, some did worse, and it's not an easy situation to handle.

But I did point to some very specific failures of his, which in my view have no justification apart from ideological blindness and arrogance. The fact that absolutely was done in over a year to improve ventilation in closed spaces like schools. The fact that he refused a 2-3 weeks lockdown in February when the scientific advisers said it was required. The fact that he continues closing hospitals and beds in the middle of the pandemics. The fact that he imposes on us for a very long time some measures that are very restrictive for our lives but with a very low efficiency against the virus, like the curfew at 18:00. His catastrophic handling of the student crisis. There is no excuse for all of that.

Edit: forgot to say, the whole handling of schools is very much a disaster. Blanquer is still in complete denial that children, while they rarely have severe form of the disease, do carry it. Not only the "protocol" in schools is both inefficient and impossible to follow, but they do utterly stupid things, like when a teacher gets covid and therefore can't teach, they... take the children and spread them in all the other classes ! That's utter madness, the best way to spread the virus. And only because they don't want to close schools, even when there are covid cases in the school, because it would mean allowing parents to skip work, which employers don't want.

I agree with that statement, that his cabinet, who is supposed to be helping Macron manage issues like these, is failing to. I have become VERY annoyed with Macron's cabinet, with "Islamo-gauchism" and the other nonsense things they have been doing. I think that Macron needs to replace it with more competent people, or LREM must move on without him, which will be hard.

[Pomeron]

By 2022, COVID will become a recent memory (I hope) and Macron - whatever successes or failures - will be able to claim at least he led France through it. His opponent will probably be Le Pen again. He will win re-election easily. I do not see him losing.

[Kilobugya]

By 2022, COVID will become a recent memory (I hope) and Macron - whatever successes or failures - will be able to claim at least he led France through it. His opponent will probably be Le Pen again. He will win re-election easily. I do not see him losing.

Between the way Macron handled the yellow vests (violent repression, hundred severely wounded or mutilated) then the way he handled the hugely popular protests against his retirement reform (the same way), the impopularity of his economical reforms (everything for the ultra-rich) and the massive failures of his handling of Covid-19, he'll not win anything easily. He might still win, if he's against Le Pen, because Le Pen is even more despised. But it'll be a narrow thing, and actually Macron is the only one who might even lose against Le Pen.

[Madrinpoor]

By 2022, COVID will become a recent memory (I hope) and Macron - whatever successes or failures - will be able to claim at least he led France through it. His opponent will probably be Le Pen again. He will win re-election easily. I do not see him losing.

Between the way Macron handled the yellow vests (violent repression, hundred severely wounded or mutilated) then the way he handled the hugely popular protests against his retirement reform (the same way), the impopularity of his economical reforms (everything for the ultra-rich) and the massive failures of his handling of Covid-19, he'll not win anything easily. He might still win, if he's against Le Pen, because Le Pen is even more despised. But it'll be a narrow thing, and actually Macron is the only one who might even lose against Le Pen.

Current polls show him barely eking out a victory by about 5 points. but I don't think he is the ONLY person that can lose to Le Pen, for instance I don't see Jadot winning (the only Green that can win in Europe is Kretschmann) or Hidalgo after 2017.

[Kilobugya]

Current polls show him barely eking out a victory by about 5 points. but I don't think he is the ONLY person that can lose to Le Pen, for instance I don't see Jadot winning (the only Green that can win in Europe is Kretschmann) or Hidalgo after 2017.

I don't see either Jadot or Hidalgo able to reach the second round. But admitting they did and would face Le Pen, I suspect nearly all the left and center-left would vote for them against Le Pen, and the traditional right-wing voters will split about equally between abstain/vote blank and the two candidates, allowing the left to win with around a 55-45 among valid votes. But yeah it's highly speculative, since I don't see them able to reach the second round, them doing it would mean something has changed or my perception of french politics is faulty.

[Madrinpoor]

Current polls show him barely eking out a victory by about 5 points. but I don't think he is the ONLY person that can lose to Le Pen, for instance I don't see Jadot winning (the only Green that can win in Europe is Kretschmann) or Hidalgo after 2017.

I don't see either Jadot or Hidalgo able to reach the second round. But admitting they did and would face Le Pen, I suspect nearly all the left and center-left would vote for them against Le Pen, and the traditional right-wing voters will split about equally between abstain/vote blank and the two candidates, allowing the left to win with around a 55-45 among valid votes. But yeah it's highly speculative, since I don't see them able to reach the second round, them doing it would mean something has changed or my perception of french politics is faulty.

To be honest it is shocking Le Pen reached the second round in 2017, because usually fringe parties cannot make it that far.

[Kilobugya]

To be honest it is shocking Le Pen reached the second round in 2017, because usually fringe parties cannot make it that far.

Sadly Le Pen isn't that fringe anymore, but is considered more or less mainstream by about 1/3 of the population and most of the mass media.

But 2017 was also an uncommon election, between Fillon the candidate of the "republican right" being hit badly by a corruption scandal and the collapse of PS due to Hollande disappointing so much his voters. So the two parties that dominated the political life since 1974 or so didn't make it to the second round.

Which resulted in the vote split almost evenly between 4 candidates (Macron, Le Pen, Fillon, Mélenchon) all around 20%. With only slight differences in how people voted any 2 of those 4 could have been in the second round.

[Madrinpoor]

To be honest it is shocking Le Pen reached the second round in 2017, because usually fringe parties cannot make it that far.

Sadly Le Pen isn't that fringe anymore, but is considered more or less mainstream by about 1/3 of the population and most of the mass media.

But 2017 was also an uncommon election, between Fillon the candidate of the "republican right" being hit badly by a corruption scandal and the collapse of PS due to Hollande disappointing so much his voters. So the two parties that dominated the political life since 1974 or so didn't make it to the second round.

Which resulted in the vote split almost evenly between 4 candidates (Macron, Le Pen, Fillon, Mélenchon) all around 20%. With only slight differences in how people voted any 2 of those 4 could have been in the second round.

Yes, but this trend cemented a new establishment. Now none of the newly powerful parties, like La France Insoumise or RN or LREM have deep enough roots to keep power, and the roots of the Socialists and Republicans were violently torn up in 2017, which means that our elections will be up in the air for the foreseeable future, with any candidate having a chance to win.

[Thermodolia]

I don't see either Jadot or Hidalgo able to reach the second round. But admitting they did and would face Le Pen, I suspect nearly all the left and center-left would vote for them against Le Pen, and the traditional right-wing voters will split about equally between abstain/vote blank and the two candidates, allowing the left to win with around a 55-45 among valid votes. But yeah it's highly speculative, since I don't see them able to reach the second round, them doing it would mean something has changed or my perception of french politics is faulty.

To be honest it is shocking Le Pen reached the second round in 2017, because usually fringe parties cannot make it that far.

Not particularly. I mean her father did it in 2002. Though he got clobbered in the second round.

To bad there’s not a Mitterrand lying around on the left, as I’d totally vote for him