What will 2050 (and the years before it) look like NSG?

[San Lumen]

Well, from what I've got so far, we'll be having full-blown brain-computer interface in the 2040s and artificial general intelligence in the 2060s.

It also depends on when will general purpose quantum computing will reach commercial level, which will significantly accelerate AI development (though even non-general purpose quantum computers will still create massive impacts on the sector).

I would also say that relative immortality will also be achieved by 2050 (that is, longevity technology will allow you to live 20 years longer for example, buying enough time for technology to advance and extend your life span, and extend it again, until we don't age anymore).

I hope we don't have artificial intelligence. Its a recipe for disaster.

[Lillorainen]

Depending on where you put the comma, the question would either be "What will 2050 (and the years before it) look like, NSG?", or, "What, will 2050 (and the years before it) look like NSG?"

If the answer to the latter is yes, expect fun times ahead.

[Ifreann]

...First of all, cryptocurrencies will be more widely used than the USD...

From what I understand, cryptocurrency mining is using more electricity than entire countries. We should probably just stop doing it, seems like a massive waste.

[Resilient Acceleration]

Another thing to be closely watched about is aging population, which basically determines geopolitics, and (related to that) China. In normal circumstances, the period when the demographic crisis hits will also be a good time for the Chinese bubble to implode. But considering CCP's absolute power, they will do something about that and I'm not sure what.

Judging from China's recent focus in developing Orwellian oppression systems though, it does seems like the Party is preparing for a post-growth economy. So kinda like Japan but probably far worse, where the social contract between the CCP (who provides economic prosperity) and the people (who provides obedience) ends, and thus the CCP shifts into raw oppression.

[Washington Resistance Army]

...First of all, cryptocurrencies will be more widely used than the USD...

From what I understand, cryptocurrency mining is using more electricity than entire countries. We should probably just stop doing it, seems like a massive waste.

It also has no value and is always cashed out into fiat currencies like USD.

[Resilient Acceleration]

Well, from what I've got so far, we'll be having full-blown brain-computer interface in the 2040s and artificial general intelligence in the 2060s.

It also depends on when will general purpose quantum computing will reach commercial level, which will significantly accelerate AI development (though even non-general purpose quantum computers will still create massive impacts on the sector).

I would also say that relative immortality will also be achieved by 2050 (that is, longevity technology will allow you to live 20 years longer for example, buying enough time for technology to advance and extend your life span, and extend it again, until we don't age anymore).

I hope we don't have artificial intelligence. Its a recipe for disaster.

Uh, AI is already widespread and even that will bring significant disruptions to the job market –and thus society as a whole– in the next 10 years. What we don't currently have is AGI.

But yeah, there is simply no incentive to not develop more advanced AIs. A company that don't put R/D to AI will be completely obliterated out of existence by its competitors. Same thing with nations—if the US stopped AI development but China didn't, the US will be completely obliterated in the economy, cybersecurity, military, politics, etc.

[San Lumen]

I hope we don't have artificial intelligence. Its a recipe for disaster.

Uh, AI is already widespread and even that will bring significant disruptions to the job market –and thus society as a whole– in the next 10 years. What we don't currently have is AGI.

But yeah, there is simply no incentive to not develop more advanced AIs. A company that don't put R/D to AI will be completely obliterated out of existence by its competitors. Same thing with nations—if the US stopped AI development but China didn't, the US will be completely obliterated in the economy, cybersecurity, military, politics, etc.

What is AGI? Id rather not have a future where Terminator or I Robot becomes reality.

[Valrifell]

Uh, AI is already widespread and even that will bring significant disruptions to the job market –and thus society as a whole– in the next 10 years. What we don't currently have is AGI.

But yeah, there is simply no incentive to not develop more advanced AIs. A company that don't put R/D to AI will be completely obliterated out of existence by its competitors. Same thing with nations—if the US stopped AI development but China didn't, the US will be completely obliterated in the economy, cybersecurity, military, politics, etc.

What is AGI? Id rather not have a future where Terminator or I Robot becomes reality.

You know why they call it science fiction, right?

We don't even know why people are sentient, I don't know how anyone could reasonably be afraid that we'll just accidentally make a sentient AI.

[Garkland]

Uh, AI is already widespread and even that will bring significant disruptions to the job market –and thus society as a whole– in the next 10 years. What we don't currently have is AGI.

But yeah, there is simply no incentive to not develop more advanced AIs. A company that don't put R/D to AI will be completely obliterated out of existence by its competitors. Same thing with nations—if the US stopped AI development but China didn't, the US will be completely obliterated in the economy, cybersecurity, military, politics, etc.

What is AGI? Id rather not have a future where Terminator or I Robot becomes reality.

According to https://becominghuman.ai/ "Whereas AI is preprogrammed to carry out a task that a human can but more efficiently, artificial general intelligence (AGI) expects the machine to be just as smart as a human."


Yeah scary.....

[Resilient Acceleration]

...First of all, cryptocurrencies will be more widely used than the USD...

From what I understand, cryptocurrency mining is using more electricity than entire countries. We should probably just stop doing it, seems like a massive waste.

It also depends on the development of quantum computing, of which I currently have no idea on the predicted timeline. But it means that there's a not-so-small probability for every single cryptocurrency that currently exist on earth to be obliterated to extiction in the next 10-15 years, replaced by new systems of which I have no idea what it would look like.

[Valrifell]

What is AGI? Id rather not have a future where Terminator or I Robot becomes reality.

According to https://becominghuman.ai/ "Whereas AI is preprogrammed to carry out a task that a human can but more efficiently, artificial general intelligence (AGI) expects the machine to be just as smart as a human."


Yeah scary.....

The problem you have to consider is why anyone would want an AGI. A specialized AI can do a task far more efficiently than a human intelligence - that's the appeal and the point of AI - so why would we ruin that by making an AI that is generalized?

[Ifreann]

From what I understand, cryptocurrency mining is using more electricity than entire countries. We should probably just stop doing it, seems like a massive waste.

It also has no value and is always cashed out into fiat currencies like USD.

I don't follow that whole scene very closely, but it doesn't really seem like it's being used as a currency at all. Most of it seems like people treating it like a trading commodity, they buy cryptocurrencies like they'd buy gold or pork bellies. Like, when bitcoin was first getting big public attention, you'd hear about a cafe or bar that'd accept it as payment, but these days I'd say the only time people use bitcoin to buy anything is ordering drugs online.

[Heloin]

It also has no value and is always cashed out into fiat currencies like USD.

I don't follow that whole scene very closely, but it doesn't really seem like it's being used as a currency at all. Most of it seems like people treating it like a trading commodity, they buy cryptocurrencies like they'd buy gold or pork bellies. Like, when bitcoin was first getting big public attention, you'd hear about a cafe or bar that'd accept it as payment, but these days I'd say the only time people use bitcoin to buy anything is ordering drugs online.

The only point of every cryptocurrency is buying illegal goods or starting a speculative bubble.

[Washington Resistance Army]

It also has no value and is always cashed out into fiat currencies like USD.

I don't follow that whole scene very closely, but it doesn't really seem like it's being used as a currency at all. Most of it seems like people treating it like a trading commodity, they buy cryptocurrencies like they'd buy gold or pork bellies. Like, when bitcoin was first getting big public attention, you'd hear about a cafe or bar that'd accept it as payment, but these days I'd say the only time people use bitcoin to buy anything is ordering drugs online.

Yeah that's pretty much how it works. There is still the odd occasional place that does accept crypto but by and large it's just an investment or day trading thing for most people. The price is way too volatile for it to be a real currency. One year ago today 1 BTC was worth $9,655, today 1 BTC is worth $51,072. If you think economics is a voodoo science now oh boy it'd so much worse under crypto.

[Ifreann]

I don't follow that whole scene very closely, but it doesn't really seem like it's being used as a currency at all. Most of it seems like people treating it like a trading commodity, they buy cryptocurrencies like they'd buy gold or pork bellies. Like, when bitcoin was first getting big public attention, you'd hear about a cafe or bar that'd accept it as payment, but these days I'd say the only time people use bitcoin to buy anything is ordering drugs online.

The only point of every cryptocurrency is buying illegal goods or starting a speculative bubble.

We should probably just make drugs legal, it'd help save the environment from dogecoin.

[Garkland]

I don't follow that whole scene very closely, but it doesn't really seem like it's being used as a currency at all. Most of it seems like people treating it like a trading commodity, they buy cryptocurrencies like they'd buy gold or pork bellies. Like, when bitcoin was first getting big public attention, you'd hear about a cafe or bar that'd accept it as payment, but these days I'd say the only time people use bitcoin to buy anything is ordering drugs online.

Yeah that's pretty much how it works. There is still the odd occasional place that does accept crypto but by and large it's just an investment or day trading thing for most people. The price is way too volatile for it to be a real currency. One year ago today 1 BTC was worth $9,655, today 1 BTC is worth $51,072. If you think economics is a voodoo science now oh boy it'd so much worse under crypto.

Cryptocurrency is being used a stock rather than an actual currency. Now I think cryptocurrency is useful for those who want privacy ( includes drug dealers and criminals, and illegal things that people want to sell) But hey, took a couple of thousand year to implement coins, and took almost 2,000 years to get credit cards, so who knows?

[Deacarsia]

I predict that the Democrat and Republicans parties will not exist, at least in their current forms.

I predict that Joe Biden will pass away within the next year or so.

I predict that a civil war will erupt in the United States within that timeframe, possibly resulting in their ultimate dissolution.

Overall, barring the Second Coming of Christ, I predict that the future will be extremely dark.

[Andsed]

Depends on if we get our shit together and start taking climate change seriously. If we do then I would say it will look relativity similar to now with some more advanced tech and a likely vastly different geo-political situation(specifics are pretty hard to predict in this regard.) If we dont(which honestly seems the more likely option at the moment) then we will see a total climate collapse and climate disaster after disaster. It will be a miracle if society in its current form survives in this case.

[San Lumen]

I predict that the Democrat and Republicans parties will not exist, at least in their current forms.

I predict that Joe Biden will pass away within the next year or so.

I predict that a civil war will erupt in the United States within that timeframe, possibly resulting in their ultimate dissolution.

Overall, barring the Second Coming of Christ, I predict that the future will be extremely dark.

Please dont say things like that about Biden. I doubt there will be a Civil War.

[Resilient Acceleration]

According to https://becominghuman.ai/ "Whereas AI is preprogrammed to carry out a task that a human can but more efficiently, artificial general intelligence (AGI) expects the machine to be just as smart as a human."


Yeah scary.....

The problem you have to consider is why anyone would want an AGI. A specialized AI can do a task far more efficiently than a human intelligence - that's the appeal and the point of AI - so why would we ruin that by making an AI that is generalized?

Well as you said, AI is king at very specific tasks and is completely useless at other tasks. Humans are currently better at general tasks, but they are also a weak blob of organic matters that tend to eat, sleep, and unionize. AGI, which can do both, will be far superior in any way and will theoretically bring anyone that master it unparalleled competitive advantage. It will also significantly accelerate advancements in the sector, with present day AI being probably comparable to a counting abacus.

Frok the looks of things, the development AGI will be closely connected to neuroscience—basically modelling how our brain actually work and create technogies based off it. Right now the technology to do that sucks (relative to what's possible in the future), and we haven't been able to rigorously map out the whole brain cell by cell to document all of its properties.

But after we're able (and at least for now, I haven't found any convincing roadmap to do that), then not only AGI, it will also mean significant advancement in brain-computer interface. Meaning telepathy, Sword Art Online, in-brain user interface which will drive smartphones to extinction, memory download, memory alteration, "cloud brain" to increase your intelligence capacity, AI-human symbiosis, and basically things that will irreversibly alter the human race.

Obviously this is far away from now, but not that far. I would say around 2050s, simply because better AI means accelerated technological advancement in general, but there are those who say that full-immersion virtual reality will exist in 2039. I mean the concepts aren't really that wild, and it's probably why almost all tech giant that I'm aware of are researching BCI.

[Ifreann]

Incidentally, I heard recently that the whole "epic bacon" fad was astroturfed to drive up the price of pork bellies. Big Pork memed their stonks to the moon before the words I just typed had been invented. We live in the dumbest timeline.

[Loeje]

I don't even know if humanity will exist in 2050. But, assuming we do, the Republican party will not exist anymore. Trump supporters will form their own party and more moderate Republicans will join the Democratic party, and so the progressive wing of the Democratic party will also split off and create their own party. It'll be the end of the two-party system.

[Fortunadia]

Hmmmmm, we really can't sa for sure what 2050 would look like. It would be a different society, yes. With technology ever evolving fast, but not like the future we see in movies or in games like Cyberpunk 2077. In my opinion, the world will be the same, the only different is the rate of technological advances and maybe some changes in our lifestyle too. But this is just my opinion, though. Also, I would also want to see China and Russia in some form of a new cold war. They might be allies in our current timeline, but they are no means the best of friends and it will not last that long.

[Resilient Acceleration]

I predict that the Democrat and Republicans parties will not exist, at least in their current forms.

I predict that Joe Biden will pass away within the next year or so.

I predict that a civil war will erupt in the United States within that timeframe, possibly resulting in their ultimate dissolution.

Overall, barring the Second Coming of Christ, I predict that the future will be extremely dark.

To be fair though, there isn't really any structural incentive for both party's elites to outright start a civil war. I would say that rapid increases in domestic terrorism is far more plausible, leading to more government surveillance and control.

[Greater Cosmicium]

snippity snip

Implying that humanity will exist in 2050 at the rate we're destroying the Earth to make a tiny group of people unreasonably wealthy